MONTREAL ?135:
Probably going against the grain of a lot of bettors in this one, especially with the late hot play from Philly, but I?m gonna take a chance on the Expos here for several reasons:
First of all, Tomo Ohka is getting the start for Montreal and he has pitched very well all season and has just been phenomenal over the last 6 games. Over those last 6, he hasn?t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of them and has only allowed 8 total runs in all 6 games combined
Ohka has also been very good in pressure situations this season. Check out the numbers:
Ohka with runners on?allowing just a .233 average to hitters
Ohka with runners in scoring position?.allowing just a .228 average
Ohka with runners in scoring pos and 2 out?.allowing just a .188 average
Ohka has made 3 starts vs Philly this season and is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA vs them. One of those was just last week, but I really don?t feel they?re gonna benefit too much from seeing him recently?.reason being, something interesting I seen with him:
Ohka is a guy that is really tough on left-handed batters, but isn?t that tough on righties:
Ohka is allowing just a .219 average to lefties this season vs a .306 average to righties.
Ohka over his career is much the same allowing a 42 point higher average to righties. This being said, I feel this is one reason his success vs this Philly team. The Phillies will more than likely have plenty of lefties in their lineup today..wouldn?t be surprised if they have a minimum of 4 with possibly 5 in there. Here?s the possible left handed bats that will be facing him today:
Marlon Anderson Left
Jeremy Giambi Left
Travis Lee Left
Tomas Perez Switch
Jimmy Rollins Swich
Bobby Abreu Left
Ricky Ledee Left
Dave Hollins Switch
Ohka also holds runners on base pretty well, only allowing 8 stolen base attemps in 27 starts this season.
Let?s get to Roa who is getting the start for Philly today:
Is Roa this good?? Maybe he is, but the guy has been pretty much a career minor leaguer. He is already 30 years old, but hat?s off to him as he has been superb since being called up from the minors?not allowing more than 4 runs in any start for Philly.
Some reason, I have a feeling Montreal gets to him today. Like Ohka just facing Philly, Roa just faced Montreal last week as well and pitched pretty good, just allowing 2 runs in 6 innings of work. I do, however, feel Montreal will be the one who benefits more from just seeing Roa?s stuff.
I?ve been checking out stuff on this Roa guy and did find out some interesting stuff on him:
Roa?s ERA on the Road this season is 1.57 Runs higher than his ERA at home Plus his ERA In Day games is 1.68 Runs higher this season than in Night games.
Roa?s career ERA in Domes is a whopping 7.50
Roa has made 6 appearances including one start vs Montreal in his career, but has an ERA of 6.92! That one win came in his last start vs them last week, but it was also played at Philly. I would not be surprised to see Montreal get to him today, especially with them just having faced him, also playing on the road in a dome plus during the day.
Maybe I?m just not a ?Roa believer? We?ll see. Even if he pitches decent, you can?t ignore the hot pitching of Ohka of late. I?ll try the Expos for a unit. Don?t really know, but you might be able to wait a bit on this line. Opened at ?140 already dropped to ?135 so I grabbed it, but wouldn?t be surprised if drops a bit more.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
