OVER 8 PHILLY- METS -115:
Love the Over in this game for a number of reasons. Let?s take a look:
First of all Padilla is on the mound for Philly, but this is a guy that is like night and day when he is away from the Home. His career ERA at AWAY is 4.60 which is complete opposite of his career ERA at home which is 2.65. Also, this is continuing this season. Padilla just simply struggles in atmospheres where he doesn?t have the support of the fans and unfamiliar surroundings. This season his ERA AWAY is 4.47 compared to 1.81 at home.
Padilla pitched a great game vs the Mets back on May 21, but don?t expect the same today. Not only was that game at home, but it was also at a time when the Mets were really struggling offensively.
Padilla has had a few games this season where his pitch count was very high in games including his 119 pitch game on July 4th(his last start prior to the all-star break) Of course this could be a concern in this game. Padilla pitched 2 innings in the All-Star game and was complaining of soreness. With this in mind, how effective will he be on the Road plus vs the hottest offensive team in baseball in the Mets. The Mets are averaging a whopping 7.3 runs per game over their last 8 games
Even if Padilla does contain this hot team today, you gotta believe they won?t be taking any chances in letting him go deep into this game?not with the elbow problems he?s been complaining of lately. This of course could open the flood gates. Gotta feel you?re gonna see plenty of the Philly bullpen in this one. The Philly pen has an ERA of over 5.00 for the season and over the last 10 games has an unbelievable ERA of over 9.00!!
Another interesting note on Padilla is the fact that if he does happen to go longer than 6 innings, he really tends to struggle. His career average he allows to hitters is over 47 points higher after the 6th inning. This season is no different?.hitters are hitting 44 points higher off him after the 6th this year??BRING ON THE BULLPEN!
Even all the info I showed above, there is no way I?m gonna play the Mets in this one with Estes on the mound.
If you look at Estes over his career, the guy is jeckyll and hyde at home and on the road. His ERA is over 2 runs lower at home than when he?s on the road...not a good situation for the over, but I don?t think those numbers will have any bearing on this game.
The Philly batters simply own Estes. The last 3 games that Estes has faced Philly, he is 0-2 with an ERA of over 10.00!! In those 3 starts which include 2 starts this season and 1 start last season, he?s pitched only a total of 12.1 innings due to being rocked in all of them. In those 12.1 innings, he?s given up 14 earned runs off 23 hits and 12 walks. Pretty unbelievably horrible numbers. The reason I don?t think he pitches any better at home today is because 2 of those 3 starts vs Philly the past 2 years were at home for him.
Some averages of Philly players that have no problems hitting Estes that go back through the 1998 season:
Abreu .667
Lee .471
Lieberthal .429
Rolen .600
Rollins .500
Estes is also allowing a .330 average to hitters with runners on base this season and when runners are in scoring position, he is allowing a .297 average to hitters.
Tim Tschida is the home umpire in this game and his games are averaging 10.3 runs per game this year. Plus games have gone ?over? in 13 of his 18 games this year.
Some supportive trends:
Philly has gone over in 9 of their last 11 games.
Mets have gone over in 7 of their last 9 games.
The last 5 meetings have all gone over.
Gotta feel the number is a little low in this one and I for one am jumping on it. Might wanna grab it early as well...could move some.
GL :thumb:
-ndnfan
