Mlb Plays Saturday May 11

[ndnfan]

Yesterday: 3-2 (+2.15 Units)

SEASON: 76-61 (+12.85 UNITS)
Sides: 58-49 (+6.65 Units)
Totals: 18-12 (+6.2 Units)
_____________________________________________

Let's keep it going today. Most plays I've had in a while, but they all qualify as plays for me.

Playing 8 games today:

UNDER 8 NY METS -120 (2UNITS)
MILWAUKEE +1 1/2 RUNLINE +100 (1 UNIT)
UNDER 8.5 ATLANTA -115 (1 UNIT)
UNDER 8 PITTSBURGH -110 (1 UNIT)
NY YANKEES -125 (1 UNIT)
TEXAS -140 (1 UNIT)
BOSTON +110 (2 UNITS)
ANAHEIM -130 (1 UNIT)


Will try to get some write-ups on some key angles in these games throughout the day today.


Good luck in all your plays today.

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

UNDER 8 Mets-Rockies:

This game is a battle of lefties and supplies plenty of angles that point this matchup to being a low scoring affair today.

Colorado on the road vs lefties is hitting just .228 and scoring an average of just 3 runs per game.

Mets at home vs lefties are hitting just .235 and scoring an average of just 3.3 runs per game.

Home plate Umpire in this game is Lance Barksdale. Barksdale has a large strikezone and both pitchers should be able to use this to their advantage today.

I've seen Hampton's performances the past few games, and he has been showing signs of pitching a lot better than early in the season. His numbers are still not very good, but I definately look for a good performance today for several reasons:

Hampton has owned the Mets hitters over the years. His last 10 starts vs the Mets have all gone "UNDER" the total. Mets players have struggled throughout their careers with Hampton's pitching style.

Here's their career averages vs Hampton:

E Alfonso .238
R Alomar .000
J Burnitz .111
R Cedeno .000
J McEwing .200
R Ordonez .091
J Payton .250
M Piazza .263

Comes out to just a career combined average of just .171 (17 hits, 99 at bats)

These stats combined with Barksdale as the Home Ump along with the fact that the Mets are averaging just over 2 runs per game their last 6 games, I fully expect Hampton to pitch very well today.

Also expect the Met's Al Leiter to have an easy time with this Rockies ball club. Leiter has only allowe 28 hits in 43 innings pitched this year. Leiter's been superb all year and expect a dandy from him today as well.

Leiter really only had one bad outing this season. That game came his last outing which will motivate him even more this game.
That last outing came against a Houston team that has always pounded Leiter in the past...as a matter of fact I bet against Leiter in that game.

Leiter only made 64 pitches that game so look for him to be fresh and highly motivated after coming off that loss. He will also benefit with Barksdale as the Umpire. Their are 5 Rocky players that have career at bats vs Leiter and they are hitting a combined .257 (9 hits, 35 at bats) Not very good, considering some of those at bats came at Coors Field.

Bullpens have been pretty solid for both teams all season. The Mets Pen has struggled a bit of late, but with the low pitch count last game and the other factors, expect Leiter to go deep into this game. The Colorado pen of late has just been simply awesome.

Home Plate Ump Barksdale's last 3 games have all gone Under.
Barksdale's last 5 Met's games have all gone Under
Barksdale's last 3 Colorado games...2 Unders and 1 push
Barksdale's one game with leiter pitching went Under
Barksdale's 2 games with Hamton...1 Under and 1 push.

Good luck :thumb:

 

[EASY MONEY!]

GOOD LUCK Today

Thanks for your Picks:Yep: :Yep:


EASYMONEY!SIB

 

[ndnfan]

Milwaukee +1.5 Runline:

A lot of things I like in this game and I'll take a shot on the runline here.

We all know Quevedo has had some problems this season. Quevedo has however, not allowed more than 4 earned runs in any game this year, which makes the runline even more healthy looking.

Expect Quevedo to be very motivated today. One reason being is that it's against his former team the Cubs. He mad one start vs the Cubs last season and only gave up 1 run. Cubs hitters currently on the team are hitting just a combined .161 vs Quevedo in their careers (5 hits, 31 at bats) with no home runs vs him.

I don't expect Quevedo to be that dominant vs the Cubs today, however I do expect a decent game from him. The Cubs are still only hitting .236 as a team this season. If you look at what they are hitting vs righties over the past 10 games, it's pretty bad. In that stretch, they are hitting just .216

Cubs are also averaging just 3.3 Runs per game vs righties at home.

Milwaukee is not much better. However, they do hit righties better than lefties. They are hitting .252 overall for the season vs righties and in their last 10 games are hitting .253 vs them.

The Brewers are averaging 3.9 runs per game vs righties on the road which is still better than the Cubs numbers.

The Brewers have 5 hitters in this lineup today that have hit Lieber very hard in the past. Check out the career averages of these 5 players:

Jose Hernandez .333
Tyler Houston .400
Geoff Jenkins .333
Richie Sexon .571
Eric Young .333

These 5 players combined are hitting a career .383 vs Lieber (18 hits, 47 at bats)

Also a major factor in this game is Home Plate Umpire Ed Montague. Montague has been know over the past several years to always help the visiting teams. In fact the Road team has always had a winning record every season through the 1997 season when Montague was the home ump. The combined record of the Home team is just 78-109 back through 1997.

Also,

Milwaukee is 7-3 when Montague is the Home Ump.
Cubs are just 4-6 when Montague is the Home Ump.
Lieber is just 1-3 when Montague is the Home Ump
Quevedo is 0-1 when Montague was the Ump but that was just a 4-2 final score.

Don't like the fact that Milwaukee is just 4-16 on the road, but the Cubs are not much better at home at 6-13.

I'll take my chances on this one and grab the 1 1/2 on the runline

Good Luck. :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

Looks like the wind is currently blowing in from right field at Wrigley around 15-20 MPH....should also help Quevedo who tends to give up some longballs. Does look like rain....Might be hard to get the required 9 innings in for the runline. We'll just have to see.

 

[ndnfan]

Anaheim:

Check out Kevin's thread....He's got a great write-up on this one. Also, if that game does come down to the Pens, Anaheim has a huge advantage as of late. The last 10 games, Anaheims bullpen ERA is just 2.37 while the White Sox's is 5.26

Also, home plate umpire is Brian Gorman who is a major "HOME TEAM" umpire. Although the home team is just 2-6 this season....the season is young yet. If you go back his last Gorman's last 54 games, which includes this year, the home team has gone 35 -19 when he is the Home Plate Umpire.

Good luck.

 

[ndnfan]

Boston +110:

I really think Boston will even this series with Seattle with a win today.

Boston has been unbelievable on the road so far this season going 16-3. Seattle has not been unbeatable at home, they are just a mediocre 11-8 at Home.

Boston has just been torturing pitchers this season with their explosive bats. Boston is hitting .305 vs lefties on the road this season and are averaging a whopping 7 runs per game vs lefties on the road!

Look for Boston to put up some runs today vs Halama. The players on this Boston team have just murdered Halama's pitching in the past. Check out some career averages of Redsox players vs Halama.

J. Damon .500
B Dauback .500
N Garciaparra .308
J Offerman .385
M Ramirez .462
J Varitek .312

These 6 players are hitting .407 (33 hits, 81 AB) combined vs Halama in their careers and if you look at the probable lineup today, the batters in the lineup are hitting .390 collectively against him.

Seattle, on the other hand is hitting pretty good as well this year, although they do miss Edgar Matinez in the lineup. They are hitting .275 vs lefties this season, but only .220 at home vs lefties.
They are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home vs lefties.


Bullpens may also play a major role in this game. I expect Oliver to go a little further than Halama in this one. Halama has been working in relief since around the middle of April. Boston's bullpen has been doing great over the past 10 games with an ERA of just 3.00

Seattle's pen is almost 2 runs higher over the same 10 game span at 4.97 and with the fact that Jeff Nelson is on the DL and Sasaki out for personal reasons, Boston could end up feasting on the Seattle bullpen. Look for Halama to go around 6 innings max in this one, so look for the bullpens to play a role in this game if it comes down to it.

Home Plate Umpire is Ron Kulpa. For those of you that don't know, Kulpa believes the road team needs more help than the home team and always seems to be giving the visiting pitchers a few more better calls than the home pitcher. Even though the home team is 3-2 with Kulpa this year, if you go back his last 47 games where he was the home ump, the Home team has only won 13 of 47!

Also, I don't apply a lot of weight to this trend, but I will throw it out here for ya....when the home team is favored from -125 to
-140, the home team is just 1-12 with Kulpa behind the plate.

One negative is the fact that Seattle is 4-0 with Kulpa behind the plate, but they were on the road 3 of them..goes right with the Kulpa Road favoritism, so i'm not applying this as to much of a factor.

If the game is close , expect Boston to take advantage of the Seattle pen the final 3 or 4 innings today.

Good luck :thumb:

 

[ndnfan]

UNDER 8 PITTSBURGH-HOUSTON:

Looks like a low scoring affair in this matchup. A battle of a couple very good right handers should keep this one under the total.

Houston is only hitting .226 vs righties on the road.
Pittsburgh is only hitting .236 vs righties at home.

Fogg has never faced the Astros which gives him a big advantage today, especially early in the game. Fogg has only averaged around 5.2 innings this year, but don't let that bother you. Pittsburghs bullpen has been awesome with a 2.47 ERA this season and a 2.00 ERA their last 10 games. I totally expect the Houston hitters to be off balance all day in this one.

Oswalt is very tough and also has been tough vs the Pirates in the past. He has 3 career starts vs Pittsburgh and has only allowed a total of 4 earned runs. In those games, he's pitched a total of 22 innings and only gave up 18 hits and only 1 walk, while striking out 25.

The Pirates have very weak career numbers vs Oswalt with the exception of Jason Kendell and Aramis Ramirez, but I believe Ramirez is doubtful tonight, so look for Oswalt to have an easy time of it.

The Houston bullpen is not the greatest, but I think you can expect Oswalt to go deep into this game. He's been averaging 7 innings a game his last 4 games so look for the same today or possibly more.

Both Oswalt and Fogg should benefit from the Home Plate Umpire.
Home Ump is Mike Winters who has been known for a large strikezone.

5 of 7 games this year have gone under when Winters is the Home Ump and if you go back even farther, you'll see that Winters' big strikezone really shows.... 33 of his last 49 games behind the plate have gone UNDER the total.

Also, as far as the team over under trends go, 17 of 32 games have gone under for Houston and 22 of 32 games have gone under for Pitt this year.


Expect a quick, low scoring affair in this game.

Good luck :thumb:

 

[CrazyHorse]

Excellent write-up's, thank you!

Nice call on the Mets under. I like Boston tonite and am glad they are your other 2 unit play today. Gl w/ the rest of your plays.

 

[bohawk]

Nice call on Mets under . Had Mets & Under. Was 7- when I got it.Nice Win. Piggy-backed that badboy.Thanks, bohawkdance1 dance1

 

[bohawk]

Had Fogg-Man too(picked him up on my fanasty team too) he "Fogged them ! Good picking on the under.

 

[EASY MONEY!]

AWESOME NIGHT TONIGHT!!!

Nothen but EASYMONEY!!

!

You Steamed ROLLED Tonight!!

Thanks for All your Picks!! Looking for Sunday's Post
Everyody Should be Leaching your Picks Man your the Best!! :clap: :clap:


Thanks EASYMONEY!