ARIZONA ?1.5 RUNLINE:
It seems kinda silly trying to explain why Arizona will win this one with Randy Johnson, because more than likely most everyone thinks he will win. I guess the real reason for my analysis is to show that even this high moneyline and runline is worth it and has plenty of value.
First of all, I?ll get to Johnson who I really don?t feel I need to explain much to all of you, however I will point out that he has a career 1.26 ERA vs Cincy and along with the microscopic ERA, he also has an amazing 13-1 strikeout-walk ratio in all the games vs Cincy.
Cincy as a team tends to struggle vs lefties?they are only batting .244 vs lefties this season and what will really hurt today is the fact that it?s not only his 1st start vs Cincy this season, but the fact Cincy only faced him one time in the past 3 years?Will make him that much tougher to hit. Oh by the way, that one start happened to be last season..a game where he struck out 20
Then you have to go back to the 1999 season to find the next 2 starts vs Cincy, where he happened to have a 1.59 ERA in those 2 starts that season along with striking out 25 and walking none!
You always gotta expect Johnson to go deep in the game, but if he happens not to, you have an Arizona bullpen that?s been very good of late?.having an ERA of just 1.88 over the last 10 games.
Let?s get to Dempster who?s making the start for the Reds and I?ll show you why I think the D?Backs hit him up today?at least enough to get the win here.
Dempster is another pitcher that wore down the 2nd half last season having an ERA of 1.62 Runs higher after the All-Star break than before the break. Starting to look like this is happening this season as well.
Dempster over the last 7 games does not have a very good strikeout-walk ratio at 19 walks to 29 strikeouts, and this could mean a few extra baserunners today for Zona who as a team has the best walk-strikeout ratio in the league. Arizona is a team that will draw a lot of walks.
Another reason I think Arizona gets to Dempster is the fact that Dempster has always allowed a higher average to left handed hitters. For his career, he allows lefties to hit 31 points higher, but this season it?s been magnified with lefties hitting 74 points higher at a .336 clip This is a big key considering Arizona?s lineup is dominated by left-handed bats?.check them out:
Counsell
Durazo
Grace
Womack
Dellucci
Finley
Gonzalez
McCracken
Randy Johnson
Good chance they?ll have at least 6 from the left side today.
Dempster also has struggled a bit with runners on this season, allowing a .310 average to hitters in this situation and also has really struggled with the first part of lineups or in other words, the table setters:
Dempster is allowing a .338 average to batter #1
Dempster?s allowing a .306 average to batter #2
Dempster?s allowing a .400 average to batter #3
If Dempster doesn?t get roughed up early, I also wanna throw out an interesting number with him today:
After the 6th inning, Dempster has allowed a .379 average to hitters which would mean the bullpen could see some action. Cincy?s pen has been pretty solid all season, but it was used early and often the 1st half of the season, and is starting to show some wear. The Pen?s ERA over the last 10 games is 4.91 which is 1.3 runs higher than their season ERA.
One more note?.Arizona has now beaten Cincy 7 straight games and I think a sweep is in order.
Just can?t see Cincy scoring much, and can?t see how Arizona will not get any runs in this one?I?ll take my chances on the runline...Think Zona wins comfortably.
Good luck :thumb:
-ndnfan
