I am not a bigtime Dusty Baker fan but I think with a few stud pitchers, a winning attitude brought by the new manager, anything from Alou, and the Cubs go OVER 82 wins.
The Cubs have a pretty bad bullpen and also they have some decent competition in their division. That combined with the fact that they play SO many day games, like they do every year, I think they will get more and more tired as the season goes on.