MLB Team "Investments" / Regular Season Win Totals

[brox1985]

Hi All!

I have been considering picking a few MLB teams (likely 3) to bet on or against every game this season, and I wanted to know if anyone has tried this. It would be like investing in a stock...for example, shorting "ATL" by betting against them every game...or buying "SEA" by betting on them every game. I am attempting to figure out the betting scale/amount per game, but it is likely to be a similar bet size every game with a slight variation depending on the current +/- percentage of each team.

Does anyone have an opinion on this idea, and more importantly, what teams are you looking to over/under achieve this season?? All input is appreciated.

After I decide on the teams, I will keep it updated and tracked throughout the year, if anyone is interested.

Good luck to everyone this season!

 

[Goldylock$]

Reds fan here, fade the reds

 

[Smitty]

My first thought is this may not be a good idea. Say you are betting on a team every game, and you picked a team that gets off to a good start. The lines will adjust, meaning you're going to start paying a higher price to bet on them every day, making it more difficult to keep winning.

It's possible someone out there has historical data that you can look up. If anyone tracks what happens if you bet on or against a certain team every game. If that exists, you could see if there's more than a handful of teams each year for which this would be a profitable strategy.

As far as teams over/under achieving this year... and my track record on these can't be far from .500 in either direction, so take these with a grain of salt...

I like both Chicago teams to overachieve. The WS mostly because La Russa is gone. But the injury to Hendricks isn't helpful. And the Cubs... I like what they have up the middle, with Swanson, Hoerner, Bellinger (hopefully eliminating the shift will boost his BA up to .180 or so), and Barnhart behind the plate. Of course, they may give up 8 runs/game. But it's a weak division.

I also like AZ to be competitive this year. They have some good young talent and a couple very good starting pitchers, in Gallen and Kelly. Feels like kind of a popular pick though, so they'll probably lose 100 games.

I bet Cleveland, SF, and the Angels under their season win totals. SF and LAA just because their managers are absolute jokes and I think they'll both struggle to finish over .500. And I really think Cleveland will regress to the mean this year. They won a LOT of 1-run games last year, which usually isn't sustainable. Hell, I also bet them to miss the playoffs (+115).

Best of luck, whatever you decide. :toast:

 

[yanno]

Hi brox,

My first thought is what Smitty said, that this may not be a good idea.

My first thought is this may not be a good idea. Say you are betting on a team every game, and you picked a team that gets off to a good start. The lines will adjust, meaning you're going to start paying a higher price to bet on them every day, making it more difficult to keep winning.

The reason I would give is that you may be finding yourself in a coin flip contest with the books who set the lines. I think you may waste a summer of your life to basically win a little, lose a little, bet a zillion games and lose the juice for sure. However, you raise an interesting question.

The Worst of the Worst

if you really want to try this then here are the worst of the worst. This is not about them going over or under their season win totals, since the books also known who are the worst.

1. Oakland :facepalm:

2. Washington :scared

3. Colorado :0corn

4. KC :sadwave:

Just (slightly) above these really hopeless teams are Pittsburg and Detroit.

Good teams can sometimes fail to be good. Bad teams almost never fail to be bad. :lol:

There is a slightly different approach to what you are thinking, that I tried once and that worked. I'll get back to this, I have things to do right now.

Just trying to be helpful, I know you are thinking about this strategy seriously. :0008

 

[yanno]

To make it short, you might want to not pick teams but starting pitcher(s). In other words, take a good starting pitcher with a decent team.

Some really good starters might be Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Alek Manoah, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom. Maybe take the first 5 innings. Make sure you like the team. Bet every game, no matter the line.

Why I say this is that one year I took Roy Halladay for the Jays and bet every game moneyline, even if it was -230 or so juice. The point is that "Doc" Halliday was a Hall of Fame pitcher and his record at the end of the year was likely 21-3 or something. Just going by memory here. So the juice was irrelevant, it could have been -300 and still would have won. Of course I was not going to bet the Jays every game that season, just the games Halladay started.

This is merely an example to suggest that you might want to refine your idea of betting some team, every game, to win or lose. In other words, you have the option to be selective. That makes it seems more like an "investment" than betting just on teams.

Whatever, just my 2 cents, good luck whatever you do. :0008

 

[redsfann]

Reds fan here, fade the reds

Same. Fade em all year long!