MLB Totals System Results from 3/27 - 5/4

[LordofBalls]

hi guys, I just started the "totals system" on April 28th (last Mon) and only listed the bet #3s, 4s, or 5s.
If you'd simply made "Flat Bets" (betting same amt each day, each play) then you went 11-13 and lost a lil bit.

I went bk and tallied from start of season. Including starting from Bet #1s. Yes, it's a small sample size. I did not keep records from the L2 years.

I'll put these up and see if anything jumps out to you.

Reg System Plays (not re-bets) - broken down into hm/road
Bet #1s = 74 Wins (AL = 30 [14-16] / NL = 44 [22-22])
Bet #2s = 25 Wins (19 [12-7] /8 [5-3])
Bet #3s = 12 Wins (5 [4-1] /7 [4-3])
------------ AL/NL
Bet 4s = 10 Ws (4/6)
Bet 5s = 9 Ws (5/4)
Loss = 6 (3/3)

RE-Bets: (after a system win, still having at least 5 gms remaining in the homestand/rd trip)
Bet #1s = 22 Wins (AL = 11 hm 4 - rd 7/ NL =11 hm 3 rd 8)
Bet #2s = 5 Wins (4/1)
Bet #3s = 5 Wins (1/4)
------------
Bet 4s = 2 wins
Bet 5s = 3 wins

There are SEVERAL ways to look at these results in my eyes.

How'd you do if you quit after a 2gm chase?
99 winners, 37 losses, but if you're losing 3 units per loss that's -111u (-12u total)

3gm chase?
111 winners, but if you're losing 6u that's -150... no bueno.

How'd you do if you wait til gm 3 to start a 3gm chase?
31 winners, 6 losses is -36u -- not much good.

Wait for a "Re-Bet #3" and start a 3gm chase... you'd be 10-0.
OR
Wait for a "Re-Bet #1" and bet gm 1 and you'd be up! 22 Wins and 15 Losses...
but will it stay this ratio all season?? you tell me.

It's very possible, that it's best used as a tool to add to whatever else you use to handicap a total.

2 years ago, I would just list all the plays, then decide which plays I would make.
I did not "just bet the system" but instead picked and chose according to SPs and Weather factors, I picked up over 50 units in 2 months.
That could be the only way this system might consistently help.
Different teams are bad each year, and some teams are wonderful. but there's no way to tell in advance.

If there was a never-fail system, it would've probably been discovered and flaunted by now.

There are certainly individuals that have success, but a lot of that is streaky also. Go good for a while, then not so good.
If you win consistently, tell us how do YOU handicap MLB?

You can't go thru and just bet laying -180 to -300 and expect to come out ahead. Juice kills ya!

Betting sides on teams that are near even or "plus" money (as madjack does) is probably as good as anything, because u stay away from laying the juice.
Snafu's been rolling using whatever 'his system' is and great for him!

I honestly have not been following MLB until the last wk or so, so I'm not sure who else is having a good record and making $$$ or not.
Please don't take it personally.

anyway, I don't like how much time I end up spending when I do this lol
it's a grind keeping the records and posting and it's everydamnday!

gonna take the dog to the park! I'll check bk in later if any of you'd like to comment share thoughts.

thanks and gl!

LoB

 

[Gaj]

Truly appreciate the time and work you have put into this forsure, as I continue to analyze things I will let you know if a sweet spot is found

 

[Gaj]

Out of curiosity LOB, after going through all that, are you able to gather a percentage for each by total for each game? for instance 7.5 , 8.5, 9.5 etc? might be too much to include the 7's 8's 9's etc but we could alway's round up or down depending on whether the game was called to be under or over?


As I was typing all of that I realized the mountain that would have to be climbed to gather those stats

 

[LordofBalls]

well Gaj I have not tallied those numbers... just the results of whether the game went over or stayed under.

Check out Scoresandodds.com

-go to MLB
-click on a team of your choice.
-scroll down to the bottom and look at that team's results so far this year.
-on the far right of the screen they've got the total (ov/un) that was used for every game and final score/result.
-please feel free to chart results based on what the line for the total was.

1 issue would be, are you going to use the opening line or the closing line?
another issue would be having anything resembling a life if you tried to keep track of everything lol

I appreciate your comments, and hope there's something that pops up that u notice and is worthwhile

like I said, seems like if there's a "can't miss" system, somebody would've figured it out by now.

Most of the guys pick sides (team A or team B), only a few do totals.
And IF they do totals, they usually only do it 10-20% of all their wagers. meaning it's Mostly sides.

Bad Angel is very solid at MLB Totals.
He hasn't shared w/me what he uses to 'cap games and what it takes to qualify as a "pick" for the day.
And he usually only has a few plays per week on totals, so there must be a lot of filters involved.

Hedgehog is another that plays totals maybe more than most others, and is usually above water (which we all long to be!).
not sure what capping 'system' he uses but again I just started looking at these (barely) a wk ago.

I'm better w/Hoops usually.
usually heavily involved w/March madness, then nba playoffs start right after.
I focus on drafting my Fantasy MLB teams, then watch NBA playoffs til they're done, then get around to mlb or just wait til fball.

I'm always OPEN to successful information!


gl to us!

LoB