Throw point spread out MNF. Look at every game as pick it?s easily 80% over the years. It?s 10-2-1 this year. This is only system that I have ever followed.
MNF (10-2-1) as pick?em
- Thread starter bosbabiesarm
- Start date
Hey Bosbab. So what your saying is if you like the redskins you should just play moneyline and not take the points?
P4P you got it. If you?re on Skins. Take the 6, and back it with some m/l cash.
Aren't you saying that ~80% of the time the team that wins the game covers the spread?
In other words, if you pick a dog and the points and they win outright, that's a cover. If you pick a favorite they can win the game but that does not mean they cover. That said, only ~20% of the time does an NFL favorite win a game but not cover the spread. This is what I have observed over 20 years and my data has it around 74/75% in the NFL.
In summary, you probably should only pick teams you think can win the game outright? Either (1) Play a Dog and the points if you think they can win outright or (2) Play a Favorite to cover but don't count on the a dog who will lose the game but cover with the points. Thoughts?
In other words, if you pick a dog and the points and they win outright, that's a cover. If you pick a favorite they can win the game but that does not mean they cover. That said, only ~20% of the time does an NFL favorite win a game but not cover the spread. This is what I have observed over 20 years and my data has it around 74/75% in the NFL.
In summary, you probably should only pick teams you think can win the game outright? Either (1) Play a Dog and the points if you think they can win outright or (2) Play a Favorite to cover but don't count on the a dog who will lose the game but cover with the points. Thoughts?
I think we are saying the same thing. What I am saying is look at every Monday night football game as a pick no matter what the point spread is if the dog covers they win out right if the favorite Wins they cover.
After reading your thread a second time I do not believe we are saying the same thing. I?m saying even if you like the favorite bet the favorite they will cover 80% of the time if you like the dog they win the game out right 80% of the time.
What I?m basically saying is if on Monday night football you like the favorite and think they are going to win you bet them because they cover the spread 80% of the time don?t let the pointspread scare you if you like the favorite don?t be scared off by the point spread.
We agree. You will find this works over 70% for all games. Rule, never bet on an NFL Dog you don't think can win the game outright. Either way, thanks for sharing and happy wagering friends!!!
No only On MNF I?ve followed it for past ten years. ONLY MNF!!!!!!!
Idk about each season, don?t think I?m that dedicated.
I think I got it. If it?s believagle the underdog can at least cover just forget the points and play them straight up. If you believe the favorite will win the game the points aren?t going to matter anyway so just lay it.
Who said sports betting was difficult :142smilie
Who said sports betting was difficult :142smilie
MNF
Make it 11-2-1 now
85.6% YTD on mnf only.
Hope this helps with 4 games left. x36:x33::0034
Make it 11-2-1 now
85.6% YTD on mnf only.
Hope this helps with 4 games left. x36:x33::0034
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