MNF - 49ers/Seahawks -- Comments Appreciated

[Fluk]

This should be a great game, possibly a much tighter game than many expect because it is played in Seattle.

Seattle is coming off a bye week after an impressive whipping of Minnesota. Shaun Alexander will be an obvious difference maker in the game. San Francisco will try and stack the box to force Dilfer to throw the ball (Alexander's biggest contribution to the game). Perhaps, stats lean to under (43) on this one, but I usually like the overs on MNF games (scoring just seems to be a little easier under the lights on Primetime :shrug: :shrug: ). We all know 49ers can score, and I expect Seahawks to do their fair share with Dilfer forced to put the ball in the air in beginning and Alexander having success in second half.

Therefore, Strongest play <b>Over 43</b>

The side is a little harder to pick. A Home Dog on MNF is always tempting, and I do look for it to be a hard fought game by Seahawks but 49ers should be able to pull away in second half. Small lean towards <b>49ers -3</b>.

Please share thoughts on game.
Good Luck to All.
Fluk

 

[Fluk]

Total moving down, at <b>42.5</b>, hopefully will continue to do so. I still like over. Looks as if a lot of people like Seahawks in this one, I'm just not sure if they much up to superior 49ers. I think over is strongest play still.


Please share opinions.

 

[Desert Scrub]

To me the total seems about right, too hard to call since I could see this game going a couple different ways. If the niners do not turn the ball over I can see them laying the wood to the seachickens tonight. The Minny/Sea game was pretty flukey with the Vikes self destructing and Seattle played a pretty pathetic second half. I see the niners jumping out to a pretty good first half lead and cruising to a rather comfy win here.

Personally I'm laying the 3 with the San Fran 40 Whiners.

Good luck whichever way you play.

 

[Strictly Int'l]

Seattle +3 at 2.05

This must be used. This is a must game for Seattle and they are at home on national TV. Seattle is prone to always do well on national TV, especially Shaun Alexander. Trent Dilfer is highly underrated and will come through as the 49ers will zone in on Alexander. Watch out for the Dilfer-Jackson show tonight. Dilfer will throw at least 2 bombs to him, guarantee it. Divisional game and it will stay close.


Prediction: Seattle 27 49ers 20

 

[jdh]

So what about the defense of both teams? How do they match up in the field? SF and Sea may want to score all night long, but can they do it against each other? Last night in the Miami/Denver game we saw two good teams play, in my opinion, equally hard. Can we assume the same for tonight? My problem with the side is the whole underdog aspect as you mentioned above. Who wants to win more, SF or Sea? Sea at home, on TV and coming of a win against the Vikings. What do you think?:shrug:

 

[GM]

Rushing:
Seattle's run defence ranks #31 in the league, allowing 189.5 yds/game. (Only ahead of NYJ). #30 is Cleveland at just 146 yds/game, so Sea and NYJ are FAR behind the rest of the league in this category. SF's run offence ranks #5, 153.8 yds/game. So it looks like SF should be able to run the ball at will tonight.

Sea #26 run offence vs SF #12 run defence. Surprising considering this is Shaun Alexander. Alexander will still be their #1 weapon tonight though I think. And he's known for lighting it up on national TV.

Passing:
Seattle #21 pass offence vs SF #10 pass defence.
SF #28 pass offence vs Seattle #11 pass defence.
More surprising numbers...SF's passing game has had real trouble thus far....no surprise about Sea's passing game.
Two teams that will have trouble throwing the ball tonight?

On the surface that looks like an Under to me, but I am not sure. It also looks like SF is the play, but I don't like going against MNF home dogs.

 

[djv]

AS soon as I see those passing number 21st and 28th in the league. Under comes to mind at once. Seattle home dog many place 3.5 forsure 3. I will not go agains that number at home. I either take Seattle witch I did. or I would have passed.

 

[jdh]

GM, I just got through looking at all of the stats for both teams. I agree with you, SF does look like the best option in every aspect of the game. I thought the under at first but after last night with the Miami/Denver game I jst don't know. I mean, it's 42 points. That's not a lot for either team to score(separately22/22). The underdog looks good though. I know Shaun isn't their only weapon, but he will be key in Sea's offense. But don't you think SF will be looking for that? I will place a bet for the over, but I may lay off a side tonight.

By the way, I appreciate your post. I read these forums everyday, mostly by the senior members. I know who's got the experience and who the coat-tailers are. I agree with all of you about trashing Raymond or anyone else that has given us his picks, info and advice. I don't post a lot because frankly I sometimes don't know shit. I'm still learning from you guys. Anyway, thanks to all you guys. :shrug:

 

[GM]

Hey jdh,

Thanks for the nice comments. While I did say SF looks like the play on paper, I think if I took anyone it would be Sea, just 'cause I like dogs and esp. MNF home dogs.

But the more I look at this game, the more I'm thinking I may just pass altogether. I'm having too much trouble getting a good feel for it.

PS - Line and total have both dropped in the last couple hours. Public hitting dog & Under? Ugh.

 

[GM]

Big Guy consensus is down to San Fran 56%. SF was over 60% on the weekend, so definitely some money coming in on Seattle now.

Over is at 72%...which is also lower than it was on the weekend I believe.

 

[daboyz#22]

TRENDS FOR BOTH TEAM


49ERS

11-1-1 on monday nights



SEAHAWKS

1-4 AFTER BYE

1-7 AFTER BYE AS DOG

2-8-1 L2YRS AS DOG OF 5 OR LESS

 

[jdh]

"The Public" can really get in my way. I'm like you, I just haven't got the feeling that makes my decision. I like the dogs too, but can they step up tonight against SF? :shrug: Seattle should be pumped about this game. It's one of those, "you may be better but not tonight" kind of games. I have a small feeling that they will be out to show everyone out in TV land that they can hang with the big boys. Can they put the point on the board?
Will have to keep studying this one.

PS
Am I the only one who has had the dream about an old guy coming to my house and giving me a Sports Almanac book?

 

[Biggy]

da ova looks good, somebody may want to verify, but THE SEAHAWKS ARE 0-3 ats WHEN COMING OFF A BYE WEEK, and I still lean to them... :shrug:

THE SEAHAWKS HAVE GONE OVER THE TOTAL 8... YES THAT IS RIGHT 8 TIMES IN A ROW AT HOME WHEN PLAYING A TEAM WITH A RECORD OF .600 OR BETTER.

THE NINERS HAVE GONE OVER THE TOTAL 5 TIMES IN A ROW WHEN PLAYING A TEAM WITH A .400 RECORD OR LESS.

So good luck, and hit em hard!!! lets all get some... :thefinger

 

[jcjrbowl]

San Fran very tough in prime time and seattle as a home dog intimidates me a little my money will be on the niners I just feel that they can control the scoreboard with the running game keeps Alexaner off the field, lay the points I dnt think we will see 10 underdog covers this week,nine is rare enough but 10

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that so far this year, this is the 4th time there has been a home underdog on MNF. The previous 3 home dogs are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 SU:

Tampa Bay (H) beating the Rams (V)
Philadelphia (V) beating Washington (H)
Baltimore (H) beating Denver (H)

Note: I believe that the Packers did go off as road favorites last Monday at some books, but right up until gametime they were 1 point dogs or at a pick. If you include them, then it is even at 2-2 ATS and SU.

It seems to me that the common thread for the home dog covering almost exclusively has to do with defense. Both Tampa Bay and Baltimore got out to early leads, made the other team force the ball and make mistakes, and won handily.

Tonight, to me, looks like a carbon copy of the Philly/Washington game. Washington was coming off a win and everyone was feeling the Spurrier magic. Philly had looked inconsistent. As pointed out by GM, Seattle ranks near the bottom in both run and pass defense and is last overall, while at the same time having a sub-par offense as well. I know that the San Fran O has been sub-par on the season as a whole, but there certainly didn't look like there was anything wrong with them last week against St. Louis.

Yes, it's tough to go against the Monday Night home dogs, and Alexander loves the spotlight, but so does T.O. and I gotta believe that the San Fran pass-O wakes up and overwhelms Seattle, then runs it down there throat in the 2nd half.

Bucking the trend, gotta go with San Fran -3

 

[killermanTN]

San Fran -3 Over 42- Just a little info 10 dogs covered & 9 unders covered the spread this Sunday so I'll put a little on the fav and little on the over.
gl to all

 

[Fluk]

Re: MNF - 49ers/Seahawks -- Comments Appreciated

Therefore, Strongest play <b>Over 43</b>

The side is a little harder to pick. A Home Dog on MNF is always tempting, and I do look for it to be a hard fought game by Seahawks but 49ers should be able to pull away in second half. Small lean towards <b>49ers -3</b>.
[/B]

Another great MNF game. Can't hit them much closer than that, congrats to all were on these sides and thanks for the input.

Keep up good work everyone. :Yep: :toast: :Yep:

 

[jdh]

Good Call tonight and good luck this weekend.