MNF Props

[superbook]

Seems to be a few guys besides myself who like to play a prop on televised games. Certainly makes some of the bad games a little more fun.

Went 2-1 last night and on a percentage basis doing about the same for the season so far.

Please keep in mind that I usually do better in college than pro.

Two plays, at least one should win, hopefully both.

Rod Smith Over 5 pass receptions -140

Shannon Sharpe Over 3 pass receptions -135


Question mark on who will QB for Denver tonight. Griese had that freak accident with his dog and he should start but Beuerlein is certainly an able replacement.

Also a question mark on RB for DEN: Gary is supposedly going to start but rookie Clinton Portis (18/103 last week) is ready to go. FB Anderson will probably see more of the ball tonite.

Smith has caught 5,3,7 passes in first 3 games. Vs SF he only caught 3 but DEN only passed 19 times vs 36 rushes in that game. Last time out vs BUF, the Broncos has a much more even split (32 rushing, 31 passing) and Smith caught 7.

I expect DEN to pass a fair amount tonight vs the Ravens' 3-4 defense with Griese operating out of the shotgun with the Broncos lining up as many as five receivers including TB Portis in the slot.

Smith is the receiver of choice.

Sharpe is coming off of the worst game of his career and is looking to make a statement against his former Raven teammates. When matched up vs SS Anthony Mitchell, Griese will be looking for him. With the exception of the shutout last week, Sharpe has played well, accounting for 5 of Griese's 14 completions two weeks ago vs SF.

The way BAL's 3-4 works is it depends upon their LBs to get to the QB as the corners give up extra space to the DEN WRs. Which leaves Smith open for a 12 yarder slant or McCaffrey open for a 15 yarder across the middle.

Unfortunately for McCaffrey, his pass route puts him in the vicinity of ILB Ray Lewis, so while the prop of 3.5 seems low for McCaffrey I'll stick with Smith and Sharpe as better plays.

Portis -8.5 vs Lewis is tempting but ?? regarding how many rushes Portis will get. Lewis has bad ribs and DEN has #1 rush D.

Looked at Redman Under 17.5, but he with limited rushing game he may throw 40 times. So I'll pass here.

Looked at Griese passing yards Over 215.5 +110, but ???? on Griese's ankle keep me off this one.

- Jon

 

[acehistr8]

Jon you and me both, props make it more exciting sometime than the actual game itself, I definitely see that as the case tonight.

Score in the first 7:30 - YES -125

If Denver gets the ball first, this is a no brainer to me. This prop is one that has been very profitable for me lately, I think it is a matter of picking your spots and prices, but I like this one a lot.

$500/$400

I like over 3 by Sharpe as well. I have this game capped in the 28-7 range, which is about where I put the Cincy game yesterday. As such I am going to play a few margin of victory props which I usually dont do. Half unit ($100) each on:

11 to 13 points +800
14 to 17 points +600
18 to 21 points +800

 

[superbook]

Phil --

I guess capping props is kind of capping WNBA.

I like your first score with 7:30. DEN usually seems to get on the board very quickly.

I've never had much luck with those margin of victory plays, but gl to you.

Griese is definitely a ?, Shanahan will be quick to yank him if he's not performing. Might be some opportunities there?

Also still looking at Redman Under 17.5 pass completions. WR Stokley is questionable with an ankle injury suffered last week vs TB. Stokley and Taylor are going to have a tough time with DEN corners O'Neal/Walker. ??? is how many catches Jamal Lewis can get out of the backfield.

 

[ussrv]

I think that the first sore for the game is a field goal ( even money) may be worth a play. What do you guys think?

 

[acehistr8]

I guess you and I are probably two of the more happy folks that Oly is now on board.

Griese is definitely a question mark tonight. I think he will probably start, but again may be yanked quickly if there is a problem. Under 18.5 completions may not be a bad bet.

 

[superbook]

USSRV --

Sounds good to me.

BAL has been good inside of the red zone: 4 of L6 opponent's drive resulted in a FG. BAL hasn't given up a TD in L3 home games.

ONTH I see this prop is -105 at Oly. I've played and won on this prop several times this year, but I'm used to getting a much higher number on the FG. Like +150 or more.

I don't keep a database for NFL so I couldn't tell you the ratio of TDs vs FGs in terms of first scores.

Maybe Ace has more info.

- Jon

 

[acehistr8]

The only thing that worries me about this is Baltimore is THAT bad.

One thing you should not do is make the mistake in your mind of thinking "Baltimore" and thinking "SuperBowl quality." Make no mistake this defense is a shell of its former self. While it has been good inside the RZ, it still allowed a TB offense, which I have admitted here before is nothign special, 279 yards. Denver has a lot more weapons and could be more dangerous.

And this Baltimore offense is a complete clusterf***. Chris Redman? No, I dont think so.

 

[djv]

acehistr8 you are so right. Look at St lou. Hard to make your self believe they are going bad. Jets with out special team breaks are bad. But you just cant buy it some times. Balt is rebulding for two years out. There going to be chitty this year and into next before it starts to turn. Det's win this week does not fool me. There still bad. N Orln's was caught napping.

 

[superbook]

Ace -- FWIW I played the Redman Under 17.5 and Stokley Under 4 receptions props but small.

How happy are the Ravens with Redman so far? Any chance that Blake might come in?

Stokley still listed as questionable (he must play for Action).

- Jon

 

[acehistr8]

Now there is an interesting question Jon, I hadnt looked at it from the Ravens side.

Redman is someone they seem (publicly, at least) committed to trying out. But if this game is out of hand in the 4th quarter, will they bring Blake in or leave Redman to take his lumps?

Interesting question. Now I am going to look at it from the TB angle. Redman was 16-38/141 against them. Granted they got shut out, but (apparently) he was able to complete his short passes without too much trouble against TB whose defense is quite good. Denver is good, but not in TBs league in my eyes.

So for me the 17.5 looks close, unless he gets pulled.

 

[superbook]

...or knocked out. Maybe by DE Pryce from the blindside?

You're right, lots of dumps off to Jamal Lewis. Stokley and Taylor will be covered like glue by corners O'Neal and Walker.

I'm betting on Ravens running more vs DEN than they did vs TB.

Ravens are in trouble!!!

 

[The Money Man]

What about

What about

Todd Heap receptions =4
yrds o/u 32.5

Sharp vs Heap receptions
Sharp -0.5 -115


Interection returned for a touchdown
No -350


I like the last one some, but also like Heap over sharp in receptions.

Any thoughts??

 

[acehistr8]

Chris Redman is the reason I would not touch that last one with a 10 foot pole. Not an unreasonable chance they are inside their own 20 and a pass gets picked off.

 

[superbook]

I might take Sharpe over Heap but agree with Ace that if anything I'd take the YES on that last one for +300 or whatever.

Ravens will have trouble running vs #1 run D and will make it fairly easy for Broncos to anticipate the pass.

CBs O'Neal or Walker are ten times the athletes of WRs Stokley and Taylor.

IMO there's a decent chance that rookie Redman puts up an INT that gets returned. He did last week vs TB -- he had one returned 97 yards for a TD with one minute to go.


- Jon

 

[superbook]

Moneyman --

In terms of Heap, here's the scouting report:

With first-year starter Chris Redman struggling to get the ball to his receivers, look for him to throw more to Heap this week. The problem is the Broncos also have some good cover linebackers who could restrict Heap's touches.


If I had to take one of your props, I'd play Heap Over 4 receptions. I think Heap and Lewis will get a lot of passes for very short yardage.

 

[saint]

I've got a prop that looks pretty strong...as strong as they come to me.

1st play from line of scrimmage:

Run -140
Pass/sack +110

Looking back at the game logs of both teams, baltimore ran the ball in both of their games on their first play (both Ray Lewis) and Denver as well ran the ball in all 3 of their games on their first play from scrimmage. Anyway, I don't like the chalk but the data is pretty strong for a play on the Run -140.

I am continuing to look, will post others I like. BTW these are from VIP.

 

[saint]

How's about:

Redman's 1st pass:

Complete -140
Incomplete +110

Both games this year Redman's 1st pass was incomplete.

Will decide, it's a possibility though

 

[saint]

What the hell, here it goes...

Balt 1st punt

Over 39.5 -120
Under 39.5 -110

Denver 1st punt

Over 42.5 +100
Under 42.5 -130


Here are the numbers:

Denver's 1st punts:
Game 1=54 yards, 2=46, 3=45

Balt's 1st punts
game 1=44, game 2=42


I like the over for both of them. Obviously, these numbers can depend entirely on the situation. Example, a pooch kick to down it deep in opponents territory etc. Whenever I play props I like to take 2 similar ones, that way there is a very good chance I'll at least go 1-1 and cover or make a little money. That way, it cuts down on chances of going broke (keep in mind though, at the same time it can cut down on your winnings...less risk overall). Also, I do not know if the above punt stats are 100% accurate. I had to crunch the numbers myself off of a game log, keeping in mind returns etc.

Let me know what you guys who play props think of all of these.

Thanks in advance

 

[Evilhomer]

Most Net Rushing Yards Baltimore Ravens +0.5 +200

With Lewis and Heap running, seems like value?

 

[txag]

does anyone know if shannon sharpe was hurt last week? i like the prop of sharpe over 3 catches but was looking at boxscores and he didnt have a catch last week. was he hurt or did he just not catch a pass?