Hey everyone,
Didn't post yesterday - just wasn't into yesterdays card of games - so i didn't force anything - looking to continue on a nice run and finish the month off strong...
Tonight I expected the public to jump on Atlanta, line came out at 7 and now seeing quite a few 9's out there - might go even higher but i locked in on the "9" number - now i am seeing about 80% bets going on Atlanta and that's just the spot where I like to go away from it and take the dog...as you may notice i like to play alot of dogs - as it's the recipe for long term success - i play about 80% dogs, 20% faves and that has equalled 6 straight winning seasons...
One thing you may notice is that the Jets are 0-3 on the road, losing by 20, 10, and 10...now this Jets team i really feel is not as bad as their 20 point loss to KC, they have lost by 10 to balt, and 10 to Buffalo - who aren't great offensive teams...however, Vinny now has a couple games under the belt, getting back in the flow - and I believe the Jets running game has been coming around nicely and the will most likely play ball control and run the ball alot tonight...Atlanta also likes to run, they will probably be w/o duckett which may be good or bad - dunn is very capable and can carry 30 times if need be...i see this game being one w/ several runs, and several defensive stops by both defenses...i do think the Jets will hang in there, and think they can stay within the 9...however i keep thinking a possible 24-14, 27-13, 20-10, or 31-17 type of score...
One thing when you have a spread of 9 - taking it up to +16 in a 7 point teaser is a nice cushion - while i expect a game around a 7-10 point margin of victory, most likely for Atlanta, i have a feeling this teasing of the line up to +16 will keep this within the number...so the first half of my teaser is Jets +16...Jets do just enough to stay within the 16 here tonight...
Now I briefly looked at next weeks lines to hook this game up with - and really i didn't have to look very hard...one very intriguing game next Sunday is Buffalo at New England - always a great AFC East matchup...now we all know New England is not the same team who has won 3 of last 4 SB's...injuries and such have taken a tolll...I mean Tom Brady was leading the league in passing yards coming into the week - very un-New England like...the thing is their defense is giving up a ton of points, yardage - they just aren't stopping people like they used to...now Buffalo was #1 passing D coming into the week - no doubt they'll force NE to run - and Dillon banged up, but whether it is him or Patrick Pass they will run a little..but oh boy will Buffalo run the ball on NE! I expect a heavy dose of McGahee - and when i saw the NE -9.5 line i just couldn't help myself to tease this up to Buffalo +16.5...
In conclusion i see Jets +16 and Buffalo +16.5 as a high percentage play - as you get a couple of teams that run the ball well, can play some good defense - and that really is the recipe you look for when trying to cover a game...Atlanta and New England do possess the home field advantage, but you have the Jets playing on MNF, and Buffalo in a critical AFC east matchup against an overrated NE team - oh by the way did i mention NE has Indy coming to town the following week? Think that game might be on their mind a bit?
I would expect the Jets to come in at the +16 tonight, however if Atlanta comes to play and the Jets don't and the Jets are blown out - remember that Buffalo in a teaser play for next Sunday - believe it's extreme value....but i'm optimistic that the Jets will come in tonight...good luck if you decide to play it...
THE PLAY:
2 team 7 point teaser
Jets +16/Bills +16.5
Risking $600 to win $500
Good luck!
SAVE IT'S OFFICIAL MADJACKSPORTS RECORD:
2005 record by Sport:
NFL: 11-6 = +$3,440
NCAA Football: 10-8 = +$2,800
NCAA Basketball: 39-31 = +$2,225
NBA: 8-7 = +$320
MLB: 1-2 = -$300
2005 record by Month:
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 +$3,005
March Record: 6-8 -$1,760
September Record: 2-3 -$1,200
October Record: 13-11 +$4,440
Overall 2005 Record: 69-54 = 56.1% = +$8,485
Didn't post yesterday - just wasn't into yesterdays card of games - so i didn't force anything - looking to continue on a nice run and finish the month off strong...
Tonight I expected the public to jump on Atlanta, line came out at 7 and now seeing quite a few 9's out there - might go even higher but i locked in on the "9" number - now i am seeing about 80% bets going on Atlanta and that's just the spot where I like to go away from it and take the dog...as you may notice i like to play alot of dogs - as it's the recipe for long term success - i play about 80% dogs, 20% faves and that has equalled 6 straight winning seasons...
One thing you may notice is that the Jets are 0-3 on the road, losing by 20, 10, and 10...now this Jets team i really feel is not as bad as their 20 point loss to KC, they have lost by 10 to balt, and 10 to Buffalo - who aren't great offensive teams...however, Vinny now has a couple games under the belt, getting back in the flow - and I believe the Jets running game has been coming around nicely and the will most likely play ball control and run the ball alot tonight...Atlanta also likes to run, they will probably be w/o duckett which may be good or bad - dunn is very capable and can carry 30 times if need be...i see this game being one w/ several runs, and several defensive stops by both defenses...i do think the Jets will hang in there, and think they can stay within the 9...however i keep thinking a possible 24-14, 27-13, 20-10, or 31-17 type of score...
One thing when you have a spread of 9 - taking it up to +16 in a 7 point teaser is a nice cushion - while i expect a game around a 7-10 point margin of victory, most likely for Atlanta, i have a feeling this teasing of the line up to +16 will keep this within the number...so the first half of my teaser is Jets +16...Jets do just enough to stay within the 16 here tonight...
Now I briefly looked at next weeks lines to hook this game up with - and really i didn't have to look very hard...one very intriguing game next Sunday is Buffalo at New England - always a great AFC East matchup...now we all know New England is not the same team who has won 3 of last 4 SB's...injuries and such have taken a tolll...I mean Tom Brady was leading the league in passing yards coming into the week - very un-New England like...the thing is their defense is giving up a ton of points, yardage - they just aren't stopping people like they used to...now Buffalo was #1 passing D coming into the week - no doubt they'll force NE to run - and Dillon banged up, but whether it is him or Patrick Pass they will run a little..but oh boy will Buffalo run the ball on NE! I expect a heavy dose of McGahee - and when i saw the NE -9.5 line i just couldn't help myself to tease this up to Buffalo +16.5...
In conclusion i see Jets +16 and Buffalo +16.5 as a high percentage play - as you get a couple of teams that run the ball well, can play some good defense - and that really is the recipe you look for when trying to cover a game...Atlanta and New England do possess the home field advantage, but you have the Jets playing on MNF, and Buffalo in a critical AFC east matchup against an overrated NE team - oh by the way did i mention NE has Indy coming to town the following week? Think that game might be on their mind a bit?
I would expect the Jets to come in at the +16 tonight, however if Atlanta comes to play and the Jets don't and the Jets are blown out - remember that Buffalo in a teaser play for next Sunday - believe it's extreme value....but i'm optimistic that the Jets will come in tonight...good luck if you decide to play it...
THE PLAY:
2 team 7 point teaser
Jets +16/Bills +16.5
Risking $600 to win $500
Good luck!
SAVE IT'S OFFICIAL MADJACKSPORTS RECORD:
2005 record by Sport:
NFL: 11-6 = +$3,440
NCAA Football: 10-8 = +$2,800
NCAA Basketball: 39-31 = +$2,225
NBA: 8-7 = +$320
MLB: 1-2 = -$300
2005 record by Month:
January Record: 25-17 +$4,000
February Record: 23-15 +$3,005
March Record: 6-8 -$1,760
September Record: 2-3 -$1,200
October Record: 13-11 +$4,440
Overall 2005 Record: 69-54 = 56.1% = +$8,485
