N.Y. Giants/Detroit Under 47
2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7?fb:
New York Giants +14? vs Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals +5 vs San Diego Chargers
1 unit bet pays 0.74
lines from 5Dimes at time of posting
goooood luck to all! :toast:
NFL:
7-2 on O/U
2-0 on teasers
ripped and stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
New York Giants +5.5
When you think of the Giants you think of a struggling team last season with a quarterback that can't remember what color jersey he is wearing. I was shocked to see that Giants finished the pre-season with a 5-0 record. The pre-season usually doesn't mean much, but it has to be a confidence builder for a team that hit rock bottom last season. The running back tandem of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams looked good in the pre-season and their ability to run the ball will help quarterback Eli Manning get back on track. The Giants defense also looks to be improved, especially in the secondary and they will be put to the test right out of the gate with a match up against Calvin Johnson and the Lions. Detroit has all the pieces to be an elite team but the fact is that they are just 5-7 against the spread in their last game as a favorite. I'll take the points with this ugly dog.
ARIZONA (-3) 27 San Diego 22
The Chargers took a big step forward last season, earning a 9-7 record and Wild Card playoff win after a disappointing 7-9 finish in 2012. The reasons behind their success were rooted in offensive scheme change as head coach Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt shortened Rivers drop-backs and designed plays to create early separation. The results were excellent. By my metrics, Rivers and the Chargers passing offense rated out as third best on the season as they averaged 258 yards per game at 7.5 yps against teams that would typically allow 243 yards at 6.3 yps. With Whisenhunt now head coach of the Titans, QB coach Frank Reich takes over and may look to increase tempo this season, as is the fashion. The Chargers will benefit from the return of WR Malcolm Floyd and the emergence of young playmakers Keenan Allen and TE Ladarius Green. They also still have Antonio Gates and a versatile stable of talented backs behind Rivers.
If their defense improves this season, they will be tough to beat. The good news is that it really should. The Chargers lucked out when CB Brandon Flowers fell into their lap after bring cut by, of all people, division rival Kansas City. They drafted CB Jason Verrette out of TCU in the first round and he will provide depth behind incumbent CB Shareece Wright. With a return to health of LB Melvin Ingram, the pass rush should be improved. The safeties are solid and the defensive line has a lot of potential, particularly Corey Luiget who flashed with some dominant moments in the preseason. DC John Pagano is an excellent coach and with a complement of players that fit his scheme, this is a defense on the rise.
With a 10-6 record in 2013 in the tough NFC West, the Cardinals were one of the surprises of 2013. After struggling to open the season with a 3-4 record, the Cardinals adapted to new systems on both sides of the ball and hit their stride, finishing 7-2 over their last 9 games. It took a while for QB Carson Palmer to adjust to the new offense as in his first seven games he completed 60.5% of his passes 248.7 yards per game with 8 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. In the last 9 games of the season he completed 66.1% for 281.4 yards with 16 TD?s and only 9 interceptions. In addition, the offense has been upgraded this offseason with several changes on the offensive line, including the addition of former Oakland LT Jared Veldheer. Dynamic playmaker Andre Ellington will finally have a chance to show what he can do in an increased role at RB, and WR?s Ted Ginn, John Brown and Jaron Brown should improve the receiver depth. Defensively, the Cardinals will have some ground to make up after losing their top two LB?s in Daryl Washington (gone for the season due to suspension for another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy) and Karlos Dansby (free agent signing in Cleveland). Pass rush is a concern with only remaining 36 year old John Abraham and DE Calais Campbell providing the bulk of the push. The loss of Darnell Dockett to a season ending ACL injury shouldn?t be as bad as it seems with some depth along the defensive line. We?ll see how much CB Antonio Cromartie has left but he was not very good last year with the Jets. If FS Tyrann Mathieu can come back and play well coming off injury, the rest of the secondary should be in good shape.
These teams are similar in many ways, featuring good QB play, a strong coaching staff and flawed but talented defenses. The Chargers have the ability to take advantage of the LB issues that Arizona is dealing with, presenting some combination of Danny Woodhead and TE?s Green and Gates as options. Meanwhile, projections are for the Cardinals to move the ball equally as well. The Chargers qualify in a negative 22-51-6 Week 1 situation that plays against them and my ratings favor the Cardinals (-4.1). I?ll lean with the Cardinals minus the short number.
----
Giants (0-0) at Lions (0-0)
The trust needle has automatically gone up since Jim Caldwell has replaced Jim Schwartz as coach of the untamed Lions. Caldwell brings the stability obtained from years at Indianapolis and the past couple in Baltimore. There is no void of talent in Detroit. Corralled properly, this could be a dangerous club. But changing a culture takes time and that makes spotting points in the price range a bit too risky right now. The Giants are being knocked by many, but the G-Men have a solid running attack and enough defensive experience to hang tough here. They won an overtime game on this field last season by a 23-20 count. TAKING: NY Giants +5?
Chargers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)
Both have scoring abilities, but Arizona?s stop unit is the stronger of the two, thus getting the nod here. San Diego?s pass defence was the worst in the AFC. Steps were taken to correct that, but adding free agents and draft picks to a new system takes time. The Cardinals are a 10-win team from a year ago and they are good on both sides of the ball. They won six of eight at home, with only losses to the 49ers and Seahawks, while allowing 17.8 points per game here. Cards are good out of the gate, having won four straight home openers. TAKING: CARDINALS ?3
Sports betting strategy -- Exploiting the bet that Vegas books lose most
Two-team, 7-point NFL teasers give bettors an edge
published by Roberts, Jul, 2013
LAS VEGAS -- The best way to understand what type of wagers a bettor should be making during the NFL season to maximize their win opportunities is by beginning with the category that the Las Vegas sports books lose on most -- the two-team, 7-point pro football teaser.
"We just can't beat them consistently," one respected sports book director said recently.
Las Vegas has sports books in town that require the bettor to lay -150 ($15 to win $10), while others are offering -140. It was close to 10 years ago that sports book directors like Bert Osborne at the Coast Resorts, before the South Point opened, were offering the 7-point teaser at -120. Nicky Bogdanovich at Mandalay Bay used to offer them cheaply as well.
The problem for the books is that too many sharp people were figuring out that crossing over key numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10 with 7 points on the two-team teasers should have a much higher price attached -- maybe even as high as -155 or -160.
The majority of the handle on the entire teaser category would come from the two-teamers. Sure enough, after each football season when analyzing the win-loss on all the pay charts, the one area that was always showing small losses was the two-team, 7-point teasers.
To show how significant losing at anything is for a sports book over any season, consider that the books rarely lose, at least not consistently. There may be an instance where there are bad baseball months, a bad football week or the WNBA bites them occasionally, but rarely for a lengthy duration like the two-team teasers have.
A couple of prominent sports books even went as far as taking the two-team teaser off the board completely. That company has since put it back on the pay chart for competitive purposes in the Vegas market, but has continued to use -140.
How about teaser value in college football? There really isn't any, even with laying only -120. The big disparity in value is simply because the college spread isn't as sound as the NFL spread, nor is the consistent margin of victory around the key numbers. No sport has a more proper line each week than the NFL.
The reason that sports books use the teasers at all is because there is a myth that business will be lost if a book doesn't offer them, which may be true in some sense. But losing that type of smarter action with larger wagers isn't a bad move. If you're the book operator, and the company has trusted in you to make money, would you rather get routinely clobbered by multiple guys for the limit, or take your chances with the 99 percent of bettors who play at a high-reward, low-risk mentality, such as playing four-team parlays? Think about it hard, and, most of all, consider that there is a 25-percent year-end bonus at stake if meeting budgeted win.
The only parlay the books even come close to losing regularly is on the two-teamer at 13-to-5 odds. The odds are very fair and are one of the few numbers on the parlay pay chart that the bettor isn't getting yanked around on. The odds don't add up on the pay chart past two-teams.
If the sports book business model allowed only straight bets and two-team parlays or teasers, there wouldn't be many books in operation. It's kind of funny how law mandates in Delaware that sports wagers there have to begin with at least three teams, where the bettor has no consistent shot at winning.
For the most part in Las Vegas, these beautiful books are financed by the same type of bettors playing in Delaware, except the Vegas people have options.
However, there are good ways to bet on parlays playing up to eight or nine teams, but only off a parlay card that has stale numbers. If playing eight teams off the card where the line has moved up to two points each, that's a huge edge for the player if just adding a simple 10-cent price to each half-point. Instead of multiplying -110 to figure a price, you multiply -150, and there's your edge.
2 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 7?fb:
New York Giants +14? vs Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals +5 vs San Diego Chargers
1 unit bet pays 0.74
lines from 5Dimes at time of posting
goooood luck to all! :toast:
NFL:
7-2 on O/U
2-0 on teasers
ripped and stolen, cut and pasted from the internets:
New York Giants +5.5
When you think of the Giants you think of a struggling team last season with a quarterback that can't remember what color jersey he is wearing. I was shocked to see that Giants finished the pre-season with a 5-0 record. The pre-season usually doesn't mean much, but it has to be a confidence builder for a team that hit rock bottom last season. The running back tandem of Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams looked good in the pre-season and their ability to run the ball will help quarterback Eli Manning get back on track. The Giants defense also looks to be improved, especially in the secondary and they will be put to the test right out of the gate with a match up against Calvin Johnson and the Lions. Detroit has all the pieces to be an elite team but the fact is that they are just 5-7 against the spread in their last game as a favorite. I'll take the points with this ugly dog.
ARIZONA (-3) 27 San Diego 22
The Chargers took a big step forward last season, earning a 9-7 record and Wild Card playoff win after a disappointing 7-9 finish in 2012. The reasons behind their success were rooted in offensive scheme change as head coach Mike McCoy and OC Ken Whisenhunt shortened Rivers drop-backs and designed plays to create early separation. The results were excellent. By my metrics, Rivers and the Chargers passing offense rated out as third best on the season as they averaged 258 yards per game at 7.5 yps against teams that would typically allow 243 yards at 6.3 yps. With Whisenhunt now head coach of the Titans, QB coach Frank Reich takes over and may look to increase tempo this season, as is the fashion. The Chargers will benefit from the return of WR Malcolm Floyd and the emergence of young playmakers Keenan Allen and TE Ladarius Green. They also still have Antonio Gates and a versatile stable of talented backs behind Rivers.
If their defense improves this season, they will be tough to beat. The good news is that it really should. The Chargers lucked out when CB Brandon Flowers fell into their lap after bring cut by, of all people, division rival Kansas City. They drafted CB Jason Verrette out of TCU in the first round and he will provide depth behind incumbent CB Shareece Wright. With a return to health of LB Melvin Ingram, the pass rush should be improved. The safeties are solid and the defensive line has a lot of potential, particularly Corey Luiget who flashed with some dominant moments in the preseason. DC John Pagano is an excellent coach and with a complement of players that fit his scheme, this is a defense on the rise.
With a 10-6 record in 2013 in the tough NFC West, the Cardinals were one of the surprises of 2013. After struggling to open the season with a 3-4 record, the Cardinals adapted to new systems on both sides of the ball and hit their stride, finishing 7-2 over their last 9 games. It took a while for QB Carson Palmer to adjust to the new offense as in his first seven games he completed 60.5% of his passes 248.7 yards per game with 8 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. In the last 9 games of the season he completed 66.1% for 281.4 yards with 16 TD?s and only 9 interceptions. In addition, the offense has been upgraded this offseason with several changes on the offensive line, including the addition of former Oakland LT Jared Veldheer. Dynamic playmaker Andre Ellington will finally have a chance to show what he can do in an increased role at RB, and WR?s Ted Ginn, John Brown and Jaron Brown should improve the receiver depth. Defensively, the Cardinals will have some ground to make up after losing their top two LB?s in Daryl Washington (gone for the season due to suspension for another violation of the NFL's substance abuse policy) and Karlos Dansby (free agent signing in Cleveland). Pass rush is a concern with only remaining 36 year old John Abraham and DE Calais Campbell providing the bulk of the push. The loss of Darnell Dockett to a season ending ACL injury shouldn?t be as bad as it seems with some depth along the defensive line. We?ll see how much CB Antonio Cromartie has left but he was not very good last year with the Jets. If FS Tyrann Mathieu can come back and play well coming off injury, the rest of the secondary should be in good shape.
These teams are similar in many ways, featuring good QB play, a strong coaching staff and flawed but talented defenses. The Chargers have the ability to take advantage of the LB issues that Arizona is dealing with, presenting some combination of Danny Woodhead and TE?s Green and Gates as options. Meanwhile, projections are for the Cardinals to move the ball equally as well. The Chargers qualify in a negative 22-51-6 Week 1 situation that plays against them and my ratings favor the Cardinals (-4.1). I?ll lean with the Cardinals minus the short number.
----
Giants (0-0) at Lions (0-0)
The trust needle has automatically gone up since Jim Caldwell has replaced Jim Schwartz as coach of the untamed Lions. Caldwell brings the stability obtained from years at Indianapolis and the past couple in Baltimore. There is no void of talent in Detroit. Corralled properly, this could be a dangerous club. But changing a culture takes time and that makes spotting points in the price range a bit too risky right now. The Giants are being knocked by many, but the G-Men have a solid running attack and enough defensive experience to hang tough here. They won an overtime game on this field last season by a 23-20 count. TAKING: NY Giants +5?
Chargers (0-0) at Cardinals (0-0)
Both have scoring abilities, but Arizona?s stop unit is the stronger of the two, thus getting the nod here. San Diego?s pass defence was the worst in the AFC. Steps were taken to correct that, but adding free agents and draft picks to a new system takes time. The Cardinals are a 10-win team from a year ago and they are good on both sides of the ball. They won six of eight at home, with only losses to the 49ers and Seahawks, while allowing 17.8 points per game here. Cards are good out of the gate, having won four straight home openers. TAKING: CARDINALS ?3
Sports betting strategy -- Exploiting the bet that Vegas books lose most
Two-team, 7-point NFL teasers give bettors an edge
published by Roberts, Jul, 2013
LAS VEGAS -- The best way to understand what type of wagers a bettor should be making during the NFL season to maximize their win opportunities is by beginning with the category that the Las Vegas sports books lose on most -- the two-team, 7-point pro football teaser.
"We just can't beat them consistently," one respected sports book director said recently.
Las Vegas has sports books in town that require the bettor to lay -150 ($15 to win $10), while others are offering -140. It was close to 10 years ago that sports book directors like Bert Osborne at the Coast Resorts, before the South Point opened, were offering the 7-point teaser at -120. Nicky Bogdanovich at Mandalay Bay used to offer them cheaply as well.
The problem for the books is that too many sharp people were figuring out that crossing over key numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10 with 7 points on the two-team teasers should have a much higher price attached -- maybe even as high as -155 or -160.
The majority of the handle on the entire teaser category would come from the two-teamers. Sure enough, after each football season when analyzing the win-loss on all the pay charts, the one area that was always showing small losses was the two-team, 7-point teasers.
To show how significant losing at anything is for a sports book over any season, consider that the books rarely lose, at least not consistently. There may be an instance where there are bad baseball months, a bad football week or the WNBA bites them occasionally, but rarely for a lengthy duration like the two-team teasers have.
A couple of prominent sports books even went as far as taking the two-team teaser off the board completely. That company has since put it back on the pay chart for competitive purposes in the Vegas market, but has continued to use -140.
How about teaser value in college football? There really isn't any, even with laying only -120. The big disparity in value is simply because the college spread isn't as sound as the NFL spread, nor is the consistent margin of victory around the key numbers. No sport has a more proper line each week than the NFL.
The reason that sports books use the teasers at all is because there is a myth that business will be lost if a book doesn't offer them, which may be true in some sense. But losing that type of smarter action with larger wagers isn't a bad move. If you're the book operator, and the company has trusted in you to make money, would you rather get routinely clobbered by multiple guys for the limit, or take your chances with the 99 percent of bettors who play at a high-reward, low-risk mentality, such as playing four-team parlays? Think about it hard, and, most of all, consider that there is a 25-percent year-end bonus at stake if meeting budgeted win.
The only parlay the books even come close to losing regularly is on the two-teamer at 13-to-5 odds. The odds are very fair and are one of the few numbers on the parlay pay chart that the bettor isn't getting yanked around on. The odds don't add up on the pay chart past two-teams.
If the sports book business model allowed only straight bets and two-team parlays or teasers, there wouldn't be many books in operation. It's kind of funny how law mandates in Delaware that sports wagers there have to begin with at least three teams, where the bettor has no consistent shot at winning.
For the most part in Las Vegas, these beautiful books are financed by the same type of bettors playing in Delaware, except the Vegas people have options.
However, there are good ways to bet on parlays playing up to eight or nine teams, but only off a parlay card that has stale numbers. If playing eight teams off the card where the line has moved up to two points each, that's a huge edge for the player if just adding a simple 10-cent price to each half-point. Instead of multiplying -110 to figure a price, you multiply -150, and there's your edge.
Last edited:
