...often disappoints in playoffs.
A common public perception of how to evaluate a playoff matchup is to examine which team has "more momentum" coming into the game.
The idea is you want to back the hot team that is "peaking" as the playoff begin. (LW NY JETS)
On the other hand , there's the argumant that the better teams tend to ease up in the last couple weeks after locking up a spot in the postseason. The question for data-hounds is which of the above views has been the correct one over the past 10 years of NFL postseason theatrics?
Consider a 2-game losing streak to be significant, but a winning streak of 3-games or more is needed to be eye-catching.
The answer seems to be that teams with momentum are NOT especially good bets, whereas teams that seemingly are backing into the playoffs have been outstanding (ATL).
Score one for the contrarians.
In particular the 80% mark of teams that have lost 2 or more consecutive games against the playoffs is worth noting. thenumbers below represent the results of a team playing its first game of the postseason.
For the 2002 playoffs, the teams that qualify in the above include:
2+ spread losses : San Fran, Indy
3+ spread wins: Tennessee, New York Giants
Another question that comes to mind when dealing with playoff handicapping is how well teams do after earning a first round bye.
Well overall the home sides playing off an extra week's are 25-17 (60%) over the past decade of playoff action in the second round of the postseason.
So, a case can be made that extra time is a benefit.
Another area of interest is teams that pull an upset in the Wild Card round. How do sides that win outright as underdogs fare in the next game?
Underdogs coming off an opening round upset have gon 4-10 ATS(29%) in the second round. Most likely the first triumph feels like enough to make the season a success. Teams that were double digit winners in the first round contests have gone just 7-15 ATS (32%) the following week.
Those are some trends to watch in the upcoming games.
Remember, teams gaining home field advantage are to be respected. And, beating up on a lesser side is NO guarantee of success when you're on the road against the "big boys" the following week.
Streak entering playoffs-----W-L ATS-----ATS Win %
3+ wins ATS----------------------5-12-----------29%
3+ wins SU----------------------15-14-----------52%
2+ losses ATS-------------------16-4------------80%
2+ losses SU----------------------7-3------------70%
Good Luck
A common public perception of how to evaluate a playoff matchup is to examine which team has "more momentum" coming into the game.
The idea is you want to back the hot team that is "peaking" as the playoff begin. (LW NY JETS)
On the other hand , there's the argumant that the better teams tend to ease up in the last couple weeks after locking up a spot in the postseason. The question for data-hounds is which of the above views has been the correct one over the past 10 years of NFL postseason theatrics?
Consider a 2-game losing streak to be significant, but a winning streak of 3-games or more is needed to be eye-catching.
The answer seems to be that teams with momentum are NOT especially good bets, whereas teams that seemingly are backing into the playoffs have been outstanding (ATL).
Score one for the contrarians.
In particular the 80% mark of teams that have lost 2 or more consecutive games against the playoffs is worth noting. thenumbers below represent the results of a team playing its first game of the postseason.
For the 2002 playoffs, the teams that qualify in the above include:
2+ spread losses : San Fran, Indy
3+ spread wins: Tennessee, New York Giants
Another question that comes to mind when dealing with playoff handicapping is how well teams do after earning a first round bye.
Well overall the home sides playing off an extra week's are 25-17 (60%) over the past decade of playoff action in the second round of the postseason.
So, a case can be made that extra time is a benefit.
Another area of interest is teams that pull an upset in the Wild Card round. How do sides that win outright as underdogs fare in the next game?
Underdogs coming off an opening round upset have gon 4-10 ATS(29%) in the second round. Most likely the first triumph feels like enough to make the season a success. Teams that were double digit winners in the first round contests have gone just 7-15 ATS (32%) the following week.
Those are some trends to watch in the upcoming games.
Remember, teams gaining home field advantage are to be respected. And, beating up on a lesser side is NO guarantee of success when you're on the road against the "big boys" the following week.
Streak entering playoffs-----W-L ATS-----ATS Win %
3+ wins ATS----------------------5-12-----------29%
3+ wins SU----------------------15-14-----------52%
2+ losses ATS-------------------16-4------------80%
2+ losses SU----------------------7-3------------70%
Good Luck
