Mon 4/27 Totals System Plays

[LordofBalls]

hi guys,
well the 1st 4 days last wk were awesome...
the last 3 days were awwwwful and ended up losing $500 for the week....:violin:
Still up about 18 units after 3 wks....

The research (if this yr is an "average year") found there will be about 15 losses in a season (when a play goes 4 bets and doesn't win).... but the wins should outnumber the bad times and make it profitable...
there were lots of other good cappers on the Clev Over y-day...
and we got robbed by the Mets gm not scoring 1 more run in the last 4.5 inns.... crap happens...:moon:
so it was justa tough wknd, hopefully everyone survived and we'll get that $ bk and more in the near future!

Here's the categories that show up today...

XL Homestand
*** Ariz gm OVER... Bet 3 <--- Haren pitching :scared
(New start) Tigers
(New Start) Atl

Reg. Homestand
***Mets OVER... Bet 3
*** Colo UNDER... Bet 3
(New) Phil.... early start Over
(New) Twins.... early start Under
(New) SF.... maybe early Over
(New) Milw.... maybe early Over
(New) Texas.... early Over... (Tues)

XL Roadtrip
(New) Rsox 9 gms
(New) Hou 8 gm
(New) Angels 8 gm

gotta run.... bk in bout an hr to finish up....

Reg. Roadtrip
** Nats OVER... Bet 2


BoL to ALL!!

LoB
:SIB

 

[LordofBalls]

okay.... here's the rest of 'em

Reg. Roadtrip
cont. play... Nats OVER bet 2
(new... "watch day" for these teams)
StL
Fla
SD
A's (tues)

Best o' Luck to USALL!!!


LoB :SIB

 

[pocketrockets69]

Question

Question

Can someone post the link that details this system and methodology? Am interested, but want to read the original. Thanks so much!

 

[gsp]

You might be reading the original.

 

[pocketrockets69]

I dont think so - am I? Looking for what the "bet 3" means and why - looks like some sort of "a certain total must come in during a series' in a martingale or +1 fashion - just looking to follow it or run a couple year regression on it. Anyone?

 

[LordofBalls]

pocketrocket,

this is a post from a few days ago.... using the "advanced search" button...

you can research further bk to the beginning of season for more reading...
this should give u a basic understanding...

==========================================
My Terminology
Regular or Long Homestand (or Reg. or Long Roadtrip) == 6 or 7 gms
XL Homestand (or XL Roadtrip) == 8 gms or longer

Note: I don't bother wless than 6gm homestands or re-starting when there is 5gms or less remaining in an XL situation, because the research showed there's too many losers to make it worthwhile, so I move on.

thru research, I recorded the overs/unders for all homestands of 6 gms or more for every team in MLB (usually 10-12 per season) the last 3 seasons.
Then went bk thru and reviewed the XL homestands and found a pattern of consistently hitting on my totals system and then hitting again when re-starting if 6 gms or more were left...

Then w/help from a friend, we each did the long and XL roadtrips (but only marked them according to when they hit, not every O O O U O U U like the homestand info)

I highlighted all homestands of 8 gms or more....

by doing the math for all homestands of 6 gms or more in the last 3 seasons... I discovered the following...

1) the units won if stopping after 3 bets was not that impressive (about +12 units/$1200 over 3 yrs) and going to 4 bets was slightly worse...

2) by going back and counting only the 8 gm or longer series for all teams and putting in re-start bets when there were 6 gms or more remaining.... over +200 units ahead over 3 yrs...

3) also did math for re-starts when there was only 5 gms remaining on the XL.... NOT Profitable.
while this lead to many more re-starts and wins, it also lead to many more losses... and the losses outweigh the wins in a chase system if ya know what I mean...

4) By FAR.... the most profitable situations were playing the regular totals system and re-starts for the XL Homestands and XL Roadtrips...

5) I do follow/record every team every time they take a trip of 6 gms or more...
and will usually play them by their 3rd game if they've had 2 straight overs or unders...

6) The "Early Start" concept, identifying teams that (over the last 3 seasons) have hit consistently one way or the other within the first 3 bets.... has also shown a profit of over 200 units in 3 yrs...

7) I did runline (playing @ -1.5 runs ONLY... NOT at +1.5) research on all every long and XL homestand.... there's only about 10 tms that have good records over the 3 yrs... and that's only really when you play them in the XL Homestands...

What I do...
*I will look at the plays the systems show are for that day....
*I spend about 15mins reviewing the pitcher's stats against the teams/hitters they're facing that day (on cbssportsline game preview)
*I spend another 10-15 mins ckg weather for the home teams involved...
If weather may negatively affect my play, I may either stay off it or cut back the bet, this saved me alot of $$ when I was betting on the Cubs to go Under last wk...
*I'm up over 4k in 2 1/2 wks.... and the first wk and half I was playing to win between $70 and $90 per unit....
*I've had to go to bet #4 twice, but each time I've managed well and haven't been down the full amts...

So I'm still trying to figure out the best way to track everything...
I have a 2 sheets for each team... one w/all long and XL homestands and dates.... one w/the long and XL roadtrips and dates...
I put in w/o for win/over and circle it if rl win...
tracking their progress thru these situations may provide some added insight down the road... or not lol
I spend about 1/2 hr ea. nite recording scores and to figure out the next day's stuff ....

hope this helps u understand...


BoL~LoB

:SIB

 

[pocketrockets69]

Just got back to town and just saw this - thanks so much for posting!!