Monday August 6th 2007
yesterday: 7-4 +6.06
August: 26-20 +6.43
ml 11-9 -0.38
rl 4-1 +3.69
totals 5-5 -1.35
parlays 6-5 +4.47
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 5-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-0 yesterday; 6-7 in August
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Hou 54% (+111)+6
Stl 54 (-124)-2
Col 58 (-114)+4
Sf 64 (-181)-1
nyy 60 (-149)even
Det 66 (-250)-6 RL 50 (-118)-5
clev 55 (-109)+2
Tex 52 (+105)+3
bost 56 (+102)+6
system totals
cubs@Hou ov9 67% (-105)+15 --ump N/A
mil@Col ov10.5 65 (-125)+9 --ump N/A
nyy@Tor ov10 69 (-105)+17 --ump N/A
clev@Min ov9.5 70 (+105)+21 --ump Iassogna is even
oak@Tex ov10 74 (-125)+18 --ump N/A
Tigers crappy play was a 9-unit swing for me (2 2-teamers and a 5-teamer)?11 units if they coulda won by 2. That's about the only bad thing I can say about Sunday's results. I went 3-0 on the moneyline, 1-1 on the runline, 1-0-2 on totals and I even managed to get an IF play through to the 7th game. System picks have, fortunately, recovered after their 1-4 start to August. System totals have recovered nicely, too, after an 0-5 start to the month; that's not counting the Lad and Oakland totals as inappropriate umpires seemed to be in play for those?they were fairly highly rated under-calls, so maybe I should have just penalized them as opposed to eliminating them altogether. Oh well; perfection is overrated.
My Monday numbers suggest that there's a bit of value with the Astros, Rockies and Bosox. Rodriguez has poor career numbers vs the Cubs, though; he's been great at home and the Astros are much better vs lefties than are the Cubs (OPS .781 to OPS .715), so the result was a call on the home team. Brewers games are getting very tough to call; Vargas has done good work vs Rockies before and comes in rated a bit higher than Fogg, but I'm giving the Rockies a small edge at the plate for this one, not to mention the fact that the Brewers don't travel very well AND the Rockies enjoy one of the better home-field advantages. Weaver hasn't been sharp, lately, for the Angels, but the club still owns a tremendous home-field record and with Schilling just coming off the DL this one is a tough call; I'll either try the Bosox or leave it alone.
Some minor adjustments I made after the all-star break has resulted in far less under-calls for system totals and a good deal more over-calls. All 5 posted, today, are over-calls and I might bite on a few of those. The Houston call is unlikely for me as Wandy has been brilliant at home and Hill can chuck a great game from time to time; still, Astros OPS at home has creeped higher and higher as each month passes and they do perform much better vs lefties. Rockies game over looks promising but notice the rather low value indicator due to the heavy juice. Yankees have beaten on Litsch before and they've scored 7 or more in their past 6 games; Jays are doing great vs lefties (OPS .842 to end July) but have been stoned on more than one ocassion by Pettitte; I need to look into this one a little deeper; with the Jays flirting with the wild-card race I can't see myself betting against them for the next few weeks, being a pretty big fan. If the Twins had been scoring more runs lately then I'd say the Metrodome total might be the best of the bunch; Twins have scored 4 or less in 12 of their past 13 games; Twins OPS the past 7 days was only .662 while Indians over that period was only .702; I still might give this one a shot as both SP's can be very hittable; 10 hits between both clubs yesterday isn't very encouraging. A's-Rangers might truly be the best of the bunch?it's the highest call, at least; both clubs hitting better vs lefties (A's .746 OPS vs L while Rangers at .774); I have Rheinecker rated fairly low and Braden is only 1 point ahead of him, so the SP's for this one are suggesting the over; A's OPS last 7 days only .714 while Rangers was down at .640; Rangers OPS at home just below .800, not much below their OPS at home last season; Rangers bats not picking up the slack with the loss of Texeira, but this will be their first game at home since the move so you would think that they might be able to make some noise?their poor work at the Rogers Centre is excusable since the Jays staff has been pitching very well lately.
I sure had a lot to say considering that Monday should be very light for me.
I might, in fact, take a pass, or at least wait until I can get some umpire information before tackling any totals (within the last hour before gametime).
Will post plays if there are any.
GL
yesterday: 7-4 +6.06
August: 26-20 +6.43
ml 11-9 -0.38
rl 4-1 +3.69
totals 5-5 -1.35
parlays 6-5 +4.47
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 5-5 in August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-0 yesterday; 6-7 in August
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Hou 54% (+111)+6
Stl 54 (-124)-2
Col 58 (-114)+4
Sf 64 (-181)-1
nyy 60 (-149)even
Det 66 (-250)-6 RL 50 (-118)-5
clev 55 (-109)+2
Tex 52 (+105)+3
bost 56 (+102)+6
system totals
cubs@Hou ov9 67% (-105)+15 --ump N/A
mil@Col ov10.5 65 (-125)+9 --ump N/A
nyy@Tor ov10 69 (-105)+17 --ump N/A
clev@Min ov9.5 70 (+105)+21 --ump Iassogna is even
oak@Tex ov10 74 (-125)+18 --ump N/A
Tigers crappy play was a 9-unit swing for me (2 2-teamers and a 5-teamer)?11 units if they coulda won by 2. That's about the only bad thing I can say about Sunday's results. I went 3-0 on the moneyline, 1-1 on the runline, 1-0-2 on totals and I even managed to get an IF play through to the 7th game. System picks have, fortunately, recovered after their 1-4 start to August. System totals have recovered nicely, too, after an 0-5 start to the month; that's not counting the Lad and Oakland totals as inappropriate umpires seemed to be in play for those?they were fairly highly rated under-calls, so maybe I should have just penalized them as opposed to eliminating them altogether. Oh well; perfection is overrated.
My Monday numbers suggest that there's a bit of value with the Astros, Rockies and Bosox. Rodriguez has poor career numbers vs the Cubs, though; he's been great at home and the Astros are much better vs lefties than are the Cubs (OPS .781 to OPS .715), so the result was a call on the home team. Brewers games are getting very tough to call; Vargas has done good work vs Rockies before and comes in rated a bit higher than Fogg, but I'm giving the Rockies a small edge at the plate for this one, not to mention the fact that the Brewers don't travel very well AND the Rockies enjoy one of the better home-field advantages. Weaver hasn't been sharp, lately, for the Angels, but the club still owns a tremendous home-field record and with Schilling just coming off the DL this one is a tough call; I'll either try the Bosox or leave it alone.
Some minor adjustments I made after the all-star break has resulted in far less under-calls for system totals and a good deal more over-calls. All 5 posted, today, are over-calls and I might bite on a few of those. The Houston call is unlikely for me as Wandy has been brilliant at home and Hill can chuck a great game from time to time; still, Astros OPS at home has creeped higher and higher as each month passes and they do perform much better vs lefties. Rockies game over looks promising but notice the rather low value indicator due to the heavy juice. Yankees have beaten on Litsch before and they've scored 7 or more in their past 6 games; Jays are doing great vs lefties (OPS .842 to end July) but have been stoned on more than one ocassion by Pettitte; I need to look into this one a little deeper; with the Jays flirting with the wild-card race I can't see myself betting against them for the next few weeks, being a pretty big fan. If the Twins had been scoring more runs lately then I'd say the Metrodome total might be the best of the bunch; Twins have scored 4 or less in 12 of their past 13 games; Twins OPS the past 7 days was only .662 while Indians over that period was only .702; I still might give this one a shot as both SP's can be very hittable; 10 hits between both clubs yesterday isn't very encouraging. A's-Rangers might truly be the best of the bunch?it's the highest call, at least; both clubs hitting better vs lefties (A's .746 OPS vs L while Rangers at .774); I have Rheinecker rated fairly low and Braden is only 1 point ahead of him, so the SP's for this one are suggesting the over; A's OPS last 7 days only .714 while Rangers was down at .640; Rangers OPS at home just below .800, not much below their OPS at home last season; Rangers bats not picking up the slack with the loss of Texeira, but this will be their first game at home since the move so you would think that they might be able to make some noise?their poor work at the Rogers Centre is excusable since the Jays staff has been pitching very well lately.
I sure had a lot to say considering that Monday should be very light for me.
I might, in fact, take a pass, or at least wait until I can get some umpire information before tackling any totals (within the last hour before gametime).
Will post plays if there are any.
GL
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