instead of playing the pirates each game in this series, the value here is risking 1 unit just once on the series play. here's the math: for all scenarios where pitt wins 2 of 3, the least profitable is when they lose game 2 vs wainwright (a high probability). so i'll use that for the calculation.
i put the line on westbrook@karstens at +150. playing all 3 for $100, winning games 1 and 3 nets +$195. the series line is +190. giving up $5 by only playing 1 unit on the series allows us to have +190 odds on game 3 (v +150) if we get there risking $100, as opposed to playing each for $100 where we could lose $300 on a sweep.
playing the series +190 and if PIT loses the first 2, we can play game 3 at +150 for $100 after being down $100. so a sweep this way only costs -$200 and a L-L-W is profitable instead of being a small loss with a bigger down side.
cincy series play is a value grab on game 3. it's Homer@Madison and should be about 100 to -110, not +140! and cincy won't lose to both Cain and Sanchez. cincy's rollin, winning low-scoring and high-scoring games. gonna play em in both games 1 and 2, as well.
small value play on texas -150... think the CJ Wilson line won't be below this and he's been just nasty. i'll be backing them in game 3 anyways, so playing it now. hopefully i'll have to play it straight up again after 2 Ws.
.........
sea/bos 5in ov4.5 -125 $1.25
m's@boston ov9 +108 $1 push
redlegs +122 $1
cin5 +.5 -120 $1.20
atlanta -114 $1.71
huddy5 -120 $1.80
atl -1.5 +150 $1
Und8.5 -105 $1.05 w+$1
astros +162 $1 w+$1.62
hou 5 +155 $.80
yanks/jays ov9 even $1.25
not sure how nova will do but if he makes a few mistakes toronto will jump all over him. and morrow has faced the yanks 3 times this year. the 2 in the bronx didn't go well, the 1 in toronto did, but it was way back. number came down, morrow's 13-10 OVER, both teams are over teams on the year. toronto's 7-4 over L11 at home and 14-9 L23 overall. nyy's 9-9 last 18 but are getting runners around lately. (head to head with Wise and Wiser here, so not going too big.)
rays/halos ov9 -120 $1.80
rays tm over5 -110 $1.10
twins@texas over10 -135 $2.16
min@tex5in over5.5 -120 $1.50
nats ov4.5 -120 $1.50
cubs opponents scoring 6.4 runs/gm this month, their bullpen is like the white sox 'pen, just in shambles and can't get people out. would play game over but livan's capable of goin 7 or 8 and holding em to 0 or 1.
nats/tigers/redsox +288 $1.25
wshRL/detRL/bosRL +916 $.50
22.87 / 18
srs
und 1-0
fav 0-1
5inn 0-5
dog 1-1 +.62
RLs 0-1 -$1
ovr 0-3-1
par 0-2 -1.75
prp 0-2
atl 0-3 -4.51
cws
series:
rangers -150 $2.25 1-0
pirates +190 $1.00 0-1
redlegs+140 $2.00 0-1
today... :clap: 2-15-1 -$17.20
this wk... 2-15-1 -$17.20
lst wk... 49-47-3 +$10.44
wk19... 84-75-6 +$23.27
wk18...29-24-0 +$1.36
wk17...48-41-1 +$19.50
wk16...56-66-5 +$0.77
wk15... 33-42-0 +$0.78
wk14... 60-34-3 +$53.33
wk13... 28-34-1 +$0.33
wk12... 33-34-0 +$11.37
wk11... 38-49-3 +$2.19
wk10.. 26-55-2 -$32.66
wk9.... 64-68-3 +$9.39
wk8.... 49-49-2 +$6.57
wk7.... 44-36-4 +$10.85
wk6.... 59-28-2 +$55.63
wk5.... 58-47-5 +$18.68
wk4.... 42-40-1 +$12.01
wk3.... 61-69-7 -$18.99
wk2.... 60-63-5 -$4.31
wk1.... 72-56-3 +$24.58
010mlb...1001-982-58 +$187.89
avg play (2673.94/2042)=$1.31
ROI $7.03
srs 90-63-0 (58.83%) +$58.37
fav 178-103 63.35%
5in 165-115-28 58.93%
und 205-174-19 54.09%
dog 98-119 +$6.72
par 72-189 +$22.82
rLs 102-117 +$1.95
ovr 61-53-6 53.51%
prp 33-42-4
atl 78-68-3 +$6.21
cws 88-71-2 +$24.35
apr 235-228-16 +$13.30
may 227-189-14 +$87.02
jun 163-205-8 -$19.23
july 202-193-10 +$80.03
...
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
matchbook|bodog|5dimes
go braves!
go white sox! :box2:
i put the line on westbrook@karstens at +150. playing all 3 for $100, winning games 1 and 3 nets +$195. the series line is +190. giving up $5 by only playing 1 unit on the series allows us to have +190 odds on game 3 (v +150) if we get there risking $100, as opposed to playing each for $100 where we could lose $300 on a sweep.
playing the series +190 and if PIT loses the first 2, we can play game 3 at +150 for $100 after being down $100. so a sweep this way only costs -$200 and a L-L-W is profitable instead of being a small loss with a bigger down side.
cincy series play is a value grab on game 3. it's Homer@Madison and should be about 100 to -110, not +140! and cincy won't lose to both Cain and Sanchez. cincy's rollin, winning low-scoring and high-scoring games. gonna play em in both games 1 and 2, as well.
small value play on texas -150... think the CJ Wilson line won't be below this and he's been just nasty. i'll be backing them in game 3 anyways, so playing it now. hopefully i'll have to play it straight up again after 2 Ws.
.........
sea/bos 5in ov4.5 -125 $1.25
m's@boston ov9 +108 $1 push
redlegs +122 $1
cin5 +.5 -120 $1.20
atlanta -114 $1.71
huddy5 -120 $1.80
atl -1.5 +150 $1
Und8.5 -105 $1.05 w+$1
astros +162 $1 w+$1.62
hou 5 +155 $.80
yanks/jays ov9 even $1.25
not sure how nova will do but if he makes a few mistakes toronto will jump all over him. and morrow has faced the yanks 3 times this year. the 2 in the bronx didn't go well, the 1 in toronto did, but it was way back. number came down, morrow's 13-10 OVER, both teams are over teams on the year. toronto's 7-4 over L11 at home and 14-9 L23 overall. nyy's 9-9 last 18 but are getting runners around lately. (head to head with Wise and Wiser here, so not going too big.)
rays/halos ov9 -120 $1.80
rays tm over5 -110 $1.10
twins@texas over10 -135 $2.16
min@tex5in over5.5 -120 $1.50
nats ov4.5 -120 $1.50
cubs opponents scoring 6.4 runs/gm this month, their bullpen is like the white sox 'pen, just in shambles and can't get people out. would play game over but livan's capable of goin 7 or 8 and holding em to 0 or 1.
nats/tigers/redsox +288 $1.25
wshRL/detRL/bosRL +916 $.50
22.87 / 18
srs
und 1-0
fav 0-1
5inn 0-5
dog 1-1 +.62
RLs 0-1 -$1
ovr 0-3-1
par 0-2 -1.75
prp 0-2
atl 0-3 -4.51
cws
series:
rangers -150 $2.25 1-0
pirates +190 $1.00 0-1
redlegs+140 $2.00 0-1
today... :clap: 2-15-1 -$17.20
this wk... 2-15-1 -$17.20
lst wk... 49-47-3 +$10.44
wk19... 84-75-6 +$23.27
wk18...29-24-0 +$1.36
wk17...48-41-1 +$19.50
wk16...56-66-5 +$0.77
wk15... 33-42-0 +$0.78
wk14... 60-34-3 +$53.33
wk13... 28-34-1 +$0.33
wk12... 33-34-0 +$11.37
wk11... 38-49-3 +$2.19
wk10.. 26-55-2 -$32.66
wk9.... 64-68-3 +$9.39
wk8.... 49-49-2 +$6.57
wk7.... 44-36-4 +$10.85
wk6.... 59-28-2 +$55.63
wk5.... 58-47-5 +$18.68
wk4.... 42-40-1 +$12.01
wk3.... 61-69-7 -$18.99
wk2.... 60-63-5 -$4.31
wk1.... 72-56-3 +$24.58
010mlb...1001-982-58 +$187.89
avg play (2673.94/2042)=$1.31
ROI $7.03
srs 90-63-0 (58.83%) +$58.37
fav 178-103 63.35%
5in 165-115-28 58.93%
und 205-174-19 54.09%
dog 98-119 +$6.72
par 72-189 +$22.82
rLs 102-117 +$1.95
ovr 61-53-6 53.51%
prp 33-42-4
atl 78-68-3 +$6.21
cws 88-71-2 +$24.35
apr 235-228-16 +$13.30
may 227-189-14 +$87.02
jun 163-205-8 -$19.23
july 202-193-10 +$80.03
...
09mlb 496-454-31 (52.16%)
08mlb 574-385-11 (59.85%)
07mlb 586-392-16 (59.92%)
matchbook|bodog|5dimes
go braves!
go white sox! :box2:
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