Monday Bowl Games

[Smitty]

full disclosure... i think i've been profitable on new years day maybe once in the last ten years.

Outback Bowl

Pass... is what i should do. pretty sure i've been on the wrong side of 26 straight outback bowls. fuck it, let's go for 27.

michigan (-8.5) 1 unit. this line is kinda nuts, so i'll play along. i mean, here's a list of everyone michigan has beaten this year:

florida
cincinnati
air force
purdue
indiana
rutgers
maryland
minnesota

i see... one bowl team? wow. so how the hell are they laying over a td to an 8-4 south carolina team? granted, south carolina may have just completed one of the weakest sec schedules in recent memory (they only beat one bowl-bound sec team, and that was missouri in the first conference game of the year). but you would think sc would be getting a little more respect against a mediocre michigan team. this line really seems to be begging for sc money.

peters should really benefit from all the extra reps, and he was already fairly solid. they didn't ask him to do much (never more than 18 pass attempts in his 4 starts), but he threw 4 TDs and 0 picks. granted, 3 of those starts were against bad teams, but he also didn't throw a pick against wisconsin, and they are second in the country with 20 INTs.

over (42) 1 unit. this is where i get really crazy. how the fuck are these teams going to put up over 42 points? i have no idea, but i'm following my gut and making a small play.

interesting, but realistically meaningless, stat... the winner in the outback bowl has scored at least 30 points in 8 of the last 9 years. and most of these games have not featured offensive juggernauts.

 

[Big G21]

?how the fuck are these teams going to put up over 42 points? i have no idea,?

Lmao! GL i like it

 

[Smitty]

Peach Bowl

Peach Bowl

UCF (+12) 2 units
UCF (ML) 1 unit to win 3.7. sure, if auburn is focused on this game, they have the athletes to shut down this offense. but there's a lot of reasons to think auburn may not be super excited for the peach bowl. after their huge win over alabama, they lost to a georgia team that they had already beat. and now they know that both georgia AND alabama are in the playoffs later today. that's gotta be a kick in the nuts. this game reminds me a lot of the 2014 fiesta bowl, between baylor and... oh, how strange... UCF. UCF was a 17-point dog that day, and they never trailed against a very good baylor team.

it also may not help auburn that this game is in the same stadium where they lost to georgia.

i give scott frost a ton of credit for staying to coach this team. no doubt the kids are going to play their hearts out for him, and if auburn isn't prepared, i love UCF to get the win.

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

Citrus Bowl

ugh.

LSU (-3) 1 unit. another game i should pass on. for years, i did very well, wagering against nd in bowl games against teams that were simply far more talented. and i don't have any reason to believe LSU isn't far better than nd. but this game feels like a huge trap. and i'm falling right into it. the biggest factors for me... lsu should be able to establish the ground game against a nd defense that gives up nearly 4 yards/carry and if lsu has to throw, etling has only thrown 2 INTs all season.

on the other side of the ball, lsu should be able to slow nd's run game, and they really rely on running the ball. wimbush has completed just under 50% of his passes this year, and that's not going to cut it against this defense.

 

[ejthree]

Happy New Year Smitty...BOL with your plays...Should be a great day for college football....l

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

whoops, posted this in a separate thread by mistake.

georgia (-3) 3 units. love georgia in this game, despite the freshman qb. playing on grass should really help their style of play (unless the rose bowl put down field turf at some point, but that seems heretical). anyway, as a general rule, i always take the good defense against the good offense. georgia can keep mayfield off the field by controlling the clock with chubb and michel.

another factor.... ok has a first-year coach. last i knew, first-year coaches have a very poor record in bowl games. granted, not being coached by stoops in a big game should be a benefit. just not today.

 

[Smitty]

Happy New Year Smitty...BOL with your plays...Should be a great day for college football....l

thanks, ej!

i haven't watched any of the outback bowl, but following it online it looks like michigan is just getting killed in the field position battle. just need them to get one break to get something going....

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

alabama (-3.5) 1 unit. biggest question mark for me... how far down the linebacker depth chart is alabama going for this game? i think they were down to their 8th string at the end of the season. all i've been able to find so far... "Linebacker Mack Wilson will have to call plays for the first time since Dylan Moses and Shaun Dion Hamilton are out. Saban said Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis are probably 100 percent after returning to action at Auburn more than a month ago."

so at least they have a couple guys back, but they're definitely still shorthanded. if that defense was fully healthy, this would be a bigger play. despite the fact that i still don't trust hurts in a big game. but i cannot overlook clemson's loss to syracuse. elite teams simply don't lose games like that.

i also like the under, but can't pull the trigger.

 

[Smitty]

Second Half

Second Half

UCF (+7) 2 units. love it, love it, love it. milton is 3 of 17, and UCF is WINNING?? holy shit. hard to believe he'll continue to be this bad in the second half, and the UCF defense is playing great. no way they step off the gas in the second half. they'll continue to pressure the shit out of stidham.

and i really think UCF will get SOME kind of a ground game going.

c'mon, knights, bring this one home, baby!!

 

[ejthree]

UCF (+7) 2 units. love it, love it, love it. milton is 3 of 17, and UCF is WINNING?? holy shit. hard to believe he'll continue to be this bad in the second half, and the UCF defense is playing great. no way they step off the gas in the second half. they'll continue to pressure the shit out of stidham.

and i really think UCF will get SOME kind of a ground game going.

c'mon, knights, bring this one home, baby!!

Great call on this game all the way around...:00hour

 

[Smitty]

Great call on this game all the way around...:00hour

thanks! i damn near shit my pants at the end. 2 missed FGs... good ol' prevent defense... a terrible call on the block... i thought for sure we were going to OT. and then the really stupid play by their d back that somehow didn't draw a flag. wow.

what an effort by their defense.

UCF now has two of my three all-time best ML hits... i had them against baylor in the fiesta bowl 4 years ago. they were a 17-point dog that day. :0074

 

[Smitty]

?how the fuck are these teams going to put up over 42 points? i have no idea,?

Lmao! GL i like it

never a doubt.

 

[IX_Bender]

nice first day of the year

 

[Smitty]

nice first day of the year

thank you, sir. if i was half as smart as i like to think i am, i'd take the rest of the year off.