Monday Bowls

[Smitty]

i have not lost one single bowl game in 2012!!!

after what's been a very solid bowl season, this is when i usually struggle. probably some very good fades here.

starting with the pre-cotton bowl, aka the ticket city bowl.

penn st (+7.5) 1 unit. obviously it's tough to take the nittany lions today. there's no guarantee they'll score more than 14 points, which means they may need to hold houston to 21 or less to cover this spread, and that seems damn near impossible. but here's the stat that led me to take southern miss over houston, and to take psu today. houston has only played two teams this season with defenses ranked in the top 60 in the country. the first was la tech, and houston needed a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat the bulldogs by a point. la tech's d is 57th in the country in total defense. the second was southern miss, and we all know what happened in that game. southern miss has the 29th-ranked defense in the country. so the only 2 decent defenses that houston has played all season covered against the cougars. psu's defense is 10th in the country, and 4th against the pass, allowing 162 yards/game. obviously they haven't faced an offense like this in a long time, but good defense usually beats good offense.
as long as psu doesn't turn the ball over (certainly a strong possibility with bolden starting), their defense will keep them in this game and they'll be able to establish their ground game against houston's 78th-ranked rush defense.
i also like that this game is on grass. that should help slow down houston's offense just a little.

i think the biggest variable in this game is where, not if, bolden throws his INTs. there's no doubt he'll give houston the ball a few times. if it happens deep in psu territory, the nittany lions are screwed. if it happens on the other side of the 50, which i'm hoping is the case, then i really like....

under (56) 2 units. that solid d combined with an anemic offense should keep this game fairly low-scoring.

C'MON, BOLDEN, DON'T GIVE THEM A SHORT FIELD!!!

 

[Smitty]

Outback Bowl

Outback Bowl

georgia (-3) 3 units. my strongest play today. i think we'll see the difference between the sec and the big 10 fully on display in this game. there may be a motivational edge, too, as michigan state fell 3 points short of wisconsin and a bcs game. what has to hurt them the most is that they already beat wisconsin earlier in the year.
after losing their first two games of the year, georgia swept through the rest of their schedule until the sec championship game. and they actually were playing the best team in the country tough, leading at halftime in that game. and for the game, they had 60 more yards of offense and 6 more first downs. IF georgia can put that 2nd half behind them, i think they will roll today.

under (49.5) 1 unit. someone really pounded the under this morning, so now we're not getting the higher number. but i'll go along for the ride.

interesting stat i found - only 4 teams in the country allowed fewer possessions in the red zone than georgia. i think it's going to be tough for michigan state to move the ball today.

 

[Smitty]

Capital One Bowl

Capital One Bowl

aka the former citrus bowl

nebraska (+3) 1 unit. tough game to call. i think it was a disappointing season for nebraska's first year in the big 10. but i'm playing against spurrier here. sc has lost their last 3 bowl games and i'm not sure, but i think they may have been favored in all 3. a big contributor to south carolina's success this year has been turnovers, as they forced 30 on the season. but nebraska doesn't turn the ball over very often. if both defenses show up today, this should be a very low-scoring, defensive struggle, so i'll take the points.

under (45.5) 1 unit.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

the gators in the gator bowl. i'm sure they're pretty excited by that.

what a shitfest on new years day. yes, i know it's actually january 2nd. but, for bowl purposes, it's new years day, dammit.

ohio st (+2) 1 unit. very easy to make a case against both teams, and very hard to make a case for either team. as tough a season as it was for ohio st, it was even tougher for florida. they lost 6 of their last 8 games, with the two wins against vandy and furman. at least ohio st beat wisconsin this year.

over (44) 1 unit. i think a complete lack of motivation will equal a few more points that anyone would expect from these teams this year. we'll probably see a few trick plays that we wouldn't see if this was a bigger bowl game for these teams.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

oregon (-5) 2 units. i was really hoping to play against both of these teams in their bowl games, so i hated this matchup. but i think the badgers are a stronger play-against than the ducks. and the best reason for this is because wisconsin has not covered one game away from home all season. also, the wisconsin defense has been lit up by teams with much less firepower than oregon has.

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

another two teams that may be lacking in motivation, even in a bcs bowl. ok st obviously was hoping to play for the nc. and luck came back for his senior season for one reason, and it wasn't for the fiesta bowl.

stanford (+4) 1 unit. for me, the biggest difference will be stanford's running game. they average 5.3 yards/carry and 208 yards/game, both 12th in the country. ok state's run defense is 85th in the country, allowing 180 yards/game. and that's a team that often had big leads, forcing the other team to throw for a lot of the game.

leaning over right now, but no play at this time.