Monday Funday

[JBCovers]

YTD (just started): 9-11-2, +1.5 units

Plays:
NM ST -11.5 (3x) easy,going away :00hour
Virginia +9 (1x) loss
W. Carolina/UNC Greensboro over 144 (2x) win
Kansas -6.5 (3x) loss [Nice clutch FTs, Morningtar]

Total: 2-2, +1 unit:toast:


Early leans:

Vill -9.5, nope, whew
ULM +7 nope, whew
Rider +4.5 nope, dammit


Totals coming next

 

[JBCovers]

Leaning on Totals:

ULM un 135.5
TT un 147.5
TAM ov 140.5

EDIT: didn't take any

 

[JBCovers]

Thoughts:

Hawaii @ New Mexico St (-11.5, 145.5)

Against the spread, Hawaii is 2-4 on the road, 3-9 as an underdog, and 5-13 overall. Just looking at those numbers, you have to think that NMST is the play. Add in that Hawaii is playing their 2nd road game in a row, playing Sat at Louisiana Tech (so another cross-country trip from LA to NM), and shoot 30% 3pt, I see NM handling this one easy. I would normally look at the under also (HAW under last 7), but tired teams typically let their lapses affect their defense more than their offense, and NMST is already a pretty good offensive team (~80ppg) at home. Looking again at the 30% 3pt for HAW, I don't see a comeback once NMST begins to push the lead to double digits.

My pick: NM ST -11.5 (3x)

 

[JBCovers]

Thoughts:

Virginia @ Maryland (-9, 134)

Virginia NEEDS this game badly. Some 'bracketologists' have them in as of now, but ESPN has them out, and we know which one the players would follow, if any. They need a win in this game to up their RPI and a 'marquee win' on the road would go a long way toward the NCAA. Maryland, on the other hand, looks to be in much better shape, although losing 4 of their last 6 has not helped them at all. Going through the stats, Maryland is a better team and at home, but I don't think they are 9 points better. A good play if you are confident, is the money line for Virginia, but I need the points on this one.

O/U: 134 is a reasonable number for this game, but with so much at stake, I see the tempo going up a little, meaning more shots and more points. Add in that I think it will be a close game, and end of game FT and/or OT might push this to the over. I don't lean either way on this, and I stay away from either side of the total on this game.

My pick: Virginia +9 (1x)

 

[JBCovers]

West Carolina (-6.5, 144) @ UNC-Greensboro

1st @ last in North Southern Conference (?? ) I normally like to jump on home dogs in-conference, but the stats don't seem to play out that way this time. WCU has lost their last 3 (last 4 ATS), and so expecting a league leader to lay another egg is wishcasting just a little much. UNCG, on the other hand, has also lost their last 3 both ways. So, no advantage there. Digging deeper, UNCG is 8-14 ATS, 5-12 as a dog, and 4-8 at home. WCU is 9-11 ATS, 6-9 as a favorite, and 5-6 in road games. I don't see any advantage to either, and for that reason, I see it ending really close to the number, and I don't have a play here.

O/U:

Looking at the stats, WCU avg more PPG on the road than UNCG avgs at home (~69-64), but if that holds up, it is WAY under. I don't think that will be the case here: WCU is 10-3 in conference O/U, including 6-1 when playing a team with a losing record. Meanwhile, UNCG is 8-5 O/U when playing a team with a winning record. WCU has been over 10 out of 12, while UNCG has been 6-6 last 12, not bad for a team that is 5-19. WCU is coming off a game 2 nights ago, but they are 5-1 O/U this year with that little rest. As for UNCG, they haven't played since the 8th, so they are rested and ready. The better the team UNCG is playing, the more overs there have been, so to me, it looks like an over.

My pick: WCU/UNCG Over 144 (2x)

 

[JBCovers]

Newest lean:

Tease ULM +11 with
ULM under 139.5

Thoughts?

 

[JBCovers]

No thoughts on ULM tonight?

 

[JBCovers]

Whew, 75-70 WKent gives me an over 144 by 1! Nice!! 2 units to the good!

Also, I noticed just before start that the Kansas game had dropped to 6.5, which was just my limit. I ended up putting 3 units on Kansas, which along with my last-second over, means in theory I am betting 1 unit to get 3 units on Kansas. Not a bad play, let's just hope it works!!

 

[JBCovers]

End of day:

NM ST -11.5 (3x) easy,going away :00hour
Virginia +9 (1x) loss
W. Carolina/UNC Greensboro over 144 (2x) win
Kansas -6.5 (3x) loss [Nice clutch FTs, Morningtar]

Total: 2-2, +1 unit :toast:

 

[LDB]

End of day:

NM ST -11.5 (3x) easy,going away :00hour
Virginia +9 (1x) loss
W. Carolina/UNC Greensboro over 144 (2x) win
Kansas -6.5 (3x) loss [Nice clutch FTs, Morningtar]

Total: 2-2, +1 unit :toast:

A winning day is always a great day... nice work jb