It's been a while since I've posted plays here, but I've had more success than usual this college hoop season, so I figured I should share the love a little bit.
I guess my handicapping has taken a turn in philosophy ever since this football season. I define it this way. The bad gamblers walk right into the "too good to be true" trap. The good gamblers see the trap games and stay away. The better than good gamblers see the trap and have the guts to go the other way.
I've seen more success this year by trying to get into the head of "Las Vegas", where I used to try to handicap basketball games. Now it's a mix for me.
That said, here goes for what should be a good night.
Posted Record: 0-0
7:00 - West Virginia +8.5
Pittsburgh home lines have been inflated in a big way all year, but this one is suspiciously low. Early money poured in on WVU, before 85% of the public jumped Pittsburgh. I tend to fade the public in ESPN games, especially at 80% or higher. In a game matchup where Pitt was able to win by double digits on the road, they open as such a low favorite at home, prompting tons of money on the home team?
I'll kurby the other way and take the 8.5 points in what should be a relatively low-possession type of game. It's also worth noting that KenPom's projector sees good value in WVU here, as the system has notched Pitt as a 5 point winner. There is just too much money rolling in here on the favorite, and Vegas doesn't seem to mind.
Note: I will wait until near tip to play this, as any big line swing in Pitt's favor in the next hour will make me change my mind a little bit.
Spread: $300 to win $270
9:00 - Missouri -4.5
I've made lots of money betting Missouri lately (Baylor, Iowa State twice) and I like them a lot at home. Pomeroy's rating system has their offense and defense both in the top 15 in the country, and I like their depth. They have two legitimate big timers in Lyons and Carroll, to go along with a host of good complimentary players.
That's the matchup part of it, where I don't see someone like Brady Morningstar being able to keep up with Missouri's talented guards.
Here I see lots and lots of public money (when we consider the side and the moneyline) flowing in on the road underdog. I typically fade the public when they bet on an underdog (especially a road one). In addition, it's a situation where the lower ranked team is favored over a higher ranked team. This trend has been strong over the years, and has won for me a number of times this season. Kansas has been somewhat shaky on the road, falling behind early in games against teams they shouldn't have struggled with. Missouri is not Baylor, and they aren't Nebraska. If Kansas doesn't come to play early here, they'll be down by 13 before they can blink and all those people with money on them will wonder why the heck they bet against the KenPom #9 team playing at home in front of a jacked up crowd.
Also here we have some interesting trend/line movements. The money was hard on Kansas early, and when it started to even out, most books tacked the hook onto the Kansas side. That tells me they want more action on the Jayhawks, and they'll probably get it.
This is a strong, strong play for me.
$350 to win $315
Take it for what it is, if this can help someone, then I'll be pleased. Good luck to everybody and well wishes.
:Kid1:
:11jackson:
:bigun:
I guess my handicapping has taken a turn in philosophy ever since this football season. I define it this way. The bad gamblers walk right into the "too good to be true" trap. The good gamblers see the trap games and stay away. The better than good gamblers see the trap and have the guts to go the other way.
I've seen more success this year by trying to get into the head of "Las Vegas", where I used to try to handicap basketball games. Now it's a mix for me.
That said, here goes for what should be a good night.
Posted Record: 0-0
7:00 - West Virginia +8.5
Pittsburgh home lines have been inflated in a big way all year, but this one is suspiciously low. Early money poured in on WVU, before 85% of the public jumped Pittsburgh. I tend to fade the public in ESPN games, especially at 80% or higher. In a game matchup where Pitt was able to win by double digits on the road, they open as such a low favorite at home, prompting tons of money on the home team?
I'll kurby the other way and take the 8.5 points in what should be a relatively low-possession type of game. It's also worth noting that KenPom's projector sees good value in WVU here, as the system has notched Pitt as a 5 point winner. There is just too much money rolling in here on the favorite, and Vegas doesn't seem to mind.
Note: I will wait until near tip to play this, as any big line swing in Pitt's favor in the next hour will make me change my mind a little bit.
Spread: $300 to win $270
9:00 - Missouri -4.5
I've made lots of money betting Missouri lately (Baylor, Iowa State twice) and I like them a lot at home. Pomeroy's rating system has their offense and defense both in the top 15 in the country, and I like their depth. They have two legitimate big timers in Lyons and Carroll, to go along with a host of good complimentary players.
That's the matchup part of it, where I don't see someone like Brady Morningstar being able to keep up with Missouri's talented guards.
Here I see lots and lots of public money (when we consider the side and the moneyline) flowing in on the road underdog. I typically fade the public when they bet on an underdog (especially a road one). In addition, it's a situation where the lower ranked team is favored over a higher ranked team. This trend has been strong over the years, and has won for me a number of times this season. Kansas has been somewhat shaky on the road, falling behind early in games against teams they shouldn't have struggled with. Missouri is not Baylor, and they aren't Nebraska. If Kansas doesn't come to play early here, they'll be down by 13 before they can blink and all those people with money on them will wonder why the heck they bet against the KenPom #9 team playing at home in front of a jacked up crowd.
Also here we have some interesting trend/line movements. The money was hard on Kansas early, and when it started to even out, most books tacked the hook onto the Kansas side. That tells me they want more action on the Jayhawks, and they'll probably get it.
This is a strong, strong play for me.
$350 to win $315
Take it for what it is, if this can help someone, then I'll be pleased. Good luck to everybody and well wishes.
:Kid1:
:11jackson:
:bigun:
