Monday July 2nd

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday July 2nd 2007

yesterday: 2-7 -2.61
ml 2-4 -0.29
totals 0-3 -2.32
system picks 2-1 yesterday, 8-2 the past 3 days (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cubs 61% (-151)even
mil 52 (-139)-7 Pitt 48 (+131)+4
phil 59 (-110)+6
ariz 62 (-129)+5
mets 60 (-119)+5
fla 58 (+119)+12
atl 55 (+110)+7
Nyy 68 (-175)+4 RL 54 (+114)+7
Clev 65 (-201)-2 RL 50 (+105)+1
tex 51 (+150)+11
balt 57 (-104)+6
seat 59 (-115)+5
Oak 51 (-124)-5

system totals

phil@Hou ov9.5 74% (-106)+22
atl@Lad un7.5 74 (-130)+17
tex@Bost ov10.5 65 (-120)+10
balt@Cws un8 74 (-115)+20


I had a feeling that the D'Rays would find a way to burn me. Oh well, hit the other 2 system picks to save a borderline joke-of-a-day, what with me going 0-7 elsewhere. Still?Reds, D'Rays, Jays and Pirates were all in their respective games?they just blew it. Totals is where I was out-to-lunch for Sunday; wasn't even close on my 0-3. Time to get rid of that minus for July?

System likes 10 of 13 visitors today, which is a little scary. Marlins and Rangers are system picks but there's no way I'm pounding either one of those?really nothing to pound today. Phillies, D'Backs, Mets, Braves, Orioles and Mariners all have a little value at current lines; I've got to look a little deeper into these ones. Total plays, if any, will be small for me as I'm a bit miffed by my 0-3 Sunday.

Will be back to post picks and Hendrix-knows what else.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've got to look at these system picks a little more in depth; I'm not crazy about either one.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(marlins, rangers)
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marlins 58% (+119)+12 V.I.

argument for game:
--marlins OPS vs L .840
--Padres OPS vs R .690
--marlins OPS last 7 days .779
--Padres OPS last 7 days .655
--I have Marlins Mitre rated several points higher than Boomer despite Mitre's current struggles
--Mitre threw a decent game against the Padres on May 5th, at home, though the Padres won 7-6 by doing a number on the Marlins bullpen (Mitre threw 6 allowing 4 hits and 1 earned run)
--Wells has a 4.19 career era vs Marlins, Fish hitting .301 off Boomer
--Padres are 2-5 for Wells 7 home starts (he's 1-1)
--Padres only 5-5 their last 10
--Marlins with a losing record at home (17-25) but are 21-19 on the road

argument against game:
--Padres bullpen MUCH better
--Mitre's era his past 3 games is 6.27 (he's o-1, club is 1-2)
--Mitre is 1-2 in 4 career starts vs Padres with a 5.56 era
--Mitre is 1-1 in 2 career starts at Petco with a 6.75 era (and this is THE pitcher's park)
--Wells has been consistently mediocre lately, and does own a 2.93 era at Petco this season
--Padres 22-16 at home

58 x 1.19 = 69.02
42 x -1.....= -42
-----------------------------
..................27.02%

That's spectacular.
Not the greatest probability--only 58%--but the high ROI is going to get me in there for at a unit or so.
Keys are Marlins great work vs lefties and a rebound performance from the still quite solid Mitre.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

rangers 51% (+150)+11 V.I.

argument for game:
--rangers OPS vs L .812
--Bosox OPS vs R .780
--rangers OPS last 7 days .794
--Bosox OPS last 7 days .761
--McCarthy and Gabbard come in rated almost identical
--Gabbard has had a tendency to walk many hitters during his short big-league career
--rangers have won 2 straight and 8 of their last 11
--Bosox have lost 2 straight (both to the Rangers) and are only 1-5 in their past 6
--Bosox only 12-12 against the West Division

argument against game:
--Bosox with the much better bullpen
--McCarthy hasn't pitched since June 9th, on the DL with blister problems (and I remember my recent plays on the Big Unit and A.J. Burnett in their first starts off the DL...both of them looked pretty bad)
--Gabbard pitched well in his only start of the year at home, beating the Braves 6-3 on May 20th (he got the W, going 5)
--rangers only 16-27 on the road
--rangers only 12-16 vs the East Division
--Bosox 24-14 at home

51 x 1.5 = 76.5
49 x -1...= -49
--------------------------
.................27.5%

Again pretty darn high.
That 49% chance of failure (min., probably) makes it less palatable.
Maybe worth a shot, with the Rangers taking 2 straight at Fenway and now facing a fairly weak lefty (they greatly prefer lefties), so maybe they can get it done.
Just seems like too much of a hope-and-a-prayer kind of play.
Small for me, if anything; there might be better options elsewhere.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

All of the others listed will have lower ROI's; higher lines is the reason.

Maybe I'll do one...just the ROI breakdown...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

d'backs 62% (-129)+5 V.I.

briefly:
--D'Backs have a monster edge at starter, especially with Looper making his first start after a DL stint
--both pens decent; slight edge Cards
--D'Backs with a slight edge at the plate in this righty-righty matchup
--D'Backs a decent 21-18 on the road
--Cards 17-19 at home

-129 is 77.5 cents otd
62 x 0.775 = 48.05
38 x -1......= -38
--------------------------------
.....................10.05%

Knew it would be considerably less.
Still, a much higher probability on this one.

Compare to marlins:
27.02-10.05=
a 16.97 point increase in ROI or
16.97/10.05%=
a 168% increase in ROI with a
4/38%=
10% greater chance of losing.

Marlins definitely the better of the two, at least if my numbers are anywhere close to accurate.
That remains the question...
...I need to do a couple of days worth of updates and then I'll post the system stats. I think that they're acceptable, but I could use a solid July to make me a believer.

Sure putting enough work into this baseball season.
Time to try and get on a roll.
However, today seems like a good day to take it easy.
I'm looking at 4-10 smallish plays, likely.
Maybe less if I'm smart about it.
(which could be a longshot)

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

Finished June...partly, at least.

Here's what I've done for the first 3 months:

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?......April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total..672-514..203-165.249-170?220-179
51??...49-41?.17-15??14-13??18-13
52??...42-35?.13-13??15-10??14-12
53??...44-38?.16-16??15-10??13-12
54??...41-40?..14-8......14-16??13-16
55??...42-37?..9-12??.15-14??18-11
56??...36-30..?17-4??.12-12??7-14
57??...35-24?...8-6??..20-11??7-7
58??...36-24?...8-11??11-5??..17-8
59??...37-25?..11-11?..15-9??..11-5
60??...32-29..?12-9??.11-12??9-8
61??...33-20?..10-8??.16-8??..7-4
62??...27-29?..10-8??.10-10??7-11
63??...38-33?..13-9??.12-8??..13-16
64??...29-21?..7-10??.11-6??..11-5
65??...31-18?..10-4??.10-9??..11-5
66??...31-14?...9-5??..10-5??..12-4
67??...16-11......6-2??..7-6???3-3
68??...15-8?....5-4??..5-1???5-3
69??...6-6??...1-2??..3-2???2-2
70??...12-7?....2-2??..3-1???7-4
71??...12-4?....1-2??..5-0???6-2
72??...6-4??...1-1??..4-1???1-2
73??...7-1??...1-1??..4-0???2-0
74??...6-5??...2-1??..3-0???1-4
75??...2-5??...0-1??..1-1???1-3
76??...1-2??...0-0??..1-0???0-2
77??...2-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0
78??...2-1??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79??...0-1???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...2-1???0-0??..1-0??...1-1
totals..182-134..45-53?.61-41...76-40
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L478-420..122-111..180-144?176-165
overall +/-.+54.57??-4.21?.+51.40??.+7.38
ml W-L?.275-177?.80-45?..106-66?...89-66
ml +/-??+57.96?.+12.54?..+37.40?....+8.02
rl W-L??.30-35??..9-10?..10-11??11-14
rl +/-??..-12.58?...-1.8??..-0.97??..-9.81
totals W-L..129-100...25-22?..45-39??..59-39
totals +/-?+25.56?...-5.2?...+4.15??..+26.61
parlays W-L..44-108.?8-34?..19-28?...17-46
parlays +/-?-16.37?...-9.75?..+10.82?.-17.44
system picks..132-80?..30-20?..52-23?.50-37


Hopefully that's not too hard to read.
It's simply the stats for each % that the system calls; obviously, I'm hoping that the stats correspond to their respective numbers.

e.g. 66's are 31-14 on the year which is 68.8% winners; 66's are meeting their quota.

69's are just 6-6 on the year so that 50% is nowhere near the 69% quota.
Several 70's are also not up to par.

For a larger data-set I'd be wise to break these numbers up into groups, like 57's-59's, low 60's (60-63), mid 60's (64-66), high 60's (67-69) etc.
I think that would give me a better gauge.
Will work on that when I finish my June updates; really need to reassess bullpens, if nothing else.

Lotsa flippin' work.
July had better be hot, Hot, HOT!!!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

marlins +122 0.81/1
rangers +150 0.66/1

other picks

phillies -110 1.1/1
d'backs -129 1.29/1
mets -119 1.19/1
braves +110 0.9/1
Yankees -175 1.75/1
Orioles -104 0.83/0.8
mariners -115 1.15/1

totals

phil@Hou ov9.5 -106 0.53/0.5
phillies over 4.5 -130 0.65/0.5
Cards under 4 -140 0.7/0.5
atl@Lad un7.5 -128 0.64/0.5
tex@Bost ov10.5 -120 0.6/0.5
rangers over 5 -105 0.52/0.5
balt@Cws un8 -115 0.8/0.7
Chisox under 4 -145 0.72/0.5
Royals under 4 -120 0.6/0.5


Quite a bit of action for a soft board. I'm putting some faith in the system numbers today, including the 5 team totals I've got listed. Everything is fairly small but I've got a lot of action on the moneyline so I'm hoping to crack skulls there. Almost said pass on the totals because of my 0-3 yesterday, but system totals are stil rocking and THEY (only me) haven't been shut out for a few weeks; currently on a 13-5 run over the past 7 days; I'm trying all 4 today. AND looky here?no parlays yet for July?Hooray!

I can't say squat about Tuesday as I haven't even looked yet.
Might do that now, before I crash.
Will report findings later.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early report for Tuesday

early report for Tuesday

I've 'capped Tuesday's games...there's some possibilities...depends on the lines.

Brewers figure to be sizeable favorites, with Capuano's return; they'll be facing an iffy lefthander here in Youman; Brewers best in MLB vs lefties; a repeat of today's line--something in the -130's--and I'll try the Brewers; at -150 I'm only interested if the Brewers win tonight.

Cubs will also be heavy road favorites, in this Zambrano-Bowie matchup. We'll probably see AT LEAST -160 for the Cubs here. Not going to be tons of value but I might try a unit, at that line, if the Cubs win tonight.

Reds up to -115 might be worth a shot in this Harang-Zito matchup. Harang currently the stronger of the two and Reds have the edge at the plate, even though they prefer facing righties.

Astros will be a favorite at home with Oswalt (vs Eaton). Tentatively 'capped for 60%, so a -150 line would be a break-even proposition. Might be slightly cheaper, but I'd pass at anything over -120, which we'll most likely see. This one could play over; gimme an 8 and I probably try it; we'll likely see an 8.5, which would still make it a system over.

Not sure if it's Sele or Perez starting for the Mets. If Sele then I've got the Rockies favored. With Perez it will be the reverse. Probably a good game to keep away from either way. The over might be a good play if it's Sele-Cook.

I've got the D'Backs to beat the Cards, again (Johnson-Wellemeyer). Johnson didn't look so hot in his first game back off the DL but for his second he'll face a team really struggling vs lefties. Wellemeyer can be hit, too, and the D'Backs are respectable vs righties. A repeat of today's -129 is unlikely--we'll probably have to pay more. I'd try the D'Backs up to -150 if they win tonight. If they lose then I'm looking for no more than -125 or -130 tops...probably pass if they lose tonight with Webb.

Got the Padres to beat the Marlins (Maddux-Olsen) but the line will probably negate any value; I'm expecting about a -150 to -160; my system call will be 61-63%, meaning no value on the play. Under 8.5 is a possibility, but the Padres are doing better vs lefties than righties; lately the Padres aren't hitting anybody, mind you, and Olsen has good numbers vs the Padres.

Braves-Dodgers game (Davies-Wolf) sounds like a coin-toss.

I'll have the Bosox as a massive favorite, despite facing Kazmir here (with Matsuzaka). Dice-K is by far the hotter of the 2 starters, and the Bosox will have a big edge at the plate; D'Rays really stinking it up with the sticks lately. I might be interested at up to -170 as long as either the Bosox win or the D'Rays lose tonight; if neither of those happens then I won't touch it at more than -150...I'd be surprised if we see it that low...I'll hop regardless of Monday's results if we see a -150. The under is a possibility here, too, and I'll really like it if the Bosox struggle to score tonight--Bosox sticks have been quiet lately.

Indians-Tigers (Byrd-Robertson) is another coin-toss. I might try the over at 9 but it will likely be 9.5 or 10.

Yankees, along with the Bosox, will have my biggest system call (both tentatively 68%). Silva has been pounded by the Yankees before while Wang has been decent vs Twins. A repeat of today's -175 is likely...perhaps slightly less. Such a line might get me to try for a unit, but I'll be passing if the Yankees lose tonight.

Mariners will be favored over Royals, despite them starting Feierabend in this one. M's really smoking lefties--especially lately--and should be able to do some damage against De La Rosa. Considering that today (Hernandez-Meche) only sees the M's at -115, I think that we can expect a line between +100 and -120 for the M's here. I'll be a player in that range, again liking it better if the M's win tonight. Over is a possibility for this one, too.

White Sox will be favored over Orioles (Vazquez-Cabrera), but we're probably looking at Chisox at -120 to -140 which will diminish any value on my 57-59% call. I might try it small at -120 if the Chisox win tonight; probably won't be that low.

Angels-Rangers (Santana-Millwood) is close to a coin-toss too. Over is a thought but we'll probably see a 10. System will still like the over at a 10.

It looks like the Jays Litsch will get another start, what with A.J. Burnett proving his real value for the second straight year...Mr. Flippin' DL. Blanton has been rock-solid lately and the A's bats are out-producing the Jays lately. I hate betting against my boys but I'll try the A's here at up to a -150; I'm not sure if that's unreasonable to expect or not, with Litsch starting. I might even try -160 for a unit if the A's beat Towers tonight, which shouldn't be too difficult.

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That's my early look at Tuesday. I'll have the numbers up later tonight, as usual. Hopefully we'll all be in a good mood later. I'm expecting good things tonight.

Catch ya on the flipside (for me...I still need some sleep).
GL

:weed:
:SIB

 

[Hooks]

Mornin,X, realize how much work you put into this, Keep up the great work. Can you break the results down even further with HOME and AWAY #s say for the 66s (for every #) that 31-14 may show as 25- 4 at home and 6- 10 away :shrug: may get even more help this way. Hooks

 

[Jig-Jag]

I think the system loves to pick Pads and Unders, loved that under with Peavy and Penyy.:00hour