Monday July 30th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday July 30th 2007

yesterday: 2-1 +1.54
July: 136-124 +12.9
ml 75-57 +4.13
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-32 -6.36
parlays 24-30 +7.82
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 36-23 in July (61%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1-1 yesterday; 44-42 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

phil 57% (+100)+7
tor 62 (-126)+6
kc 55 (+112)+7
laa 59 (-126)+3
Oak 53 (Blanton-Tata)

system totals

none today


I got the Jay earlier, at -118, but I still think there's value at this line as McGowan has been doing great work while Sonnanstine will likely give the Jays bats less trouble than Buehrle and Vazquez just gave them for their last two. I think that Philly is worth a shot I just haven't pulled the trigger yet?a little concerned about betting against the Cubs right now, especially to kick off a homestand following a nice finish to a road trip; still, Phillies OPS vs lefties is .810 while Cubs vs L is .720, not to mention the fact that Phillies last 7 days had an OPS of .922 while Cubs last 7 was .677 (ESPN?don't think it includes Sunday); Lilly is pretty hot but I think Hamels is the better SP; Cubs with the better bullpen, though. I think the Royals will have a chance to win in every game of the series at the Metrodome; next is De La Rosa-Silva then Bannister-Bonser; Twins just don't look great right now and the Royals are hitting well lately. Meche seems to have about 50-50 chance to get knocked around real good every time he takes the mound, so I'm not crazy about the opener?maybe a little higher, like at +120, and I try it. M's are winning at around 65% at home this year, so even though Escobar is the better SP, and the Angels have much better offensive stats lately (7-day OPS of .887 Angels vs .676 M's?same ESPN day-olds), I think that the Angels will have quite a series on their hands, especially in the opener, after some overnight travel; both starters have poor numbers vs opponent and both clubs mashed the ball pretty good on Sunday, so maybe the over 8.5 would work. A's should be favoured, when they open it; hard to say what Tata will bring to the table?I've got him rated slightly below average for this start; if Tata doesn't survive long, which is quite possible, then the Tigers well-worn bullpen could be in for a long night?A's did just bag 10 yesterday; still a tough game to call as Tigers have a serious edge at the plate and Blanton has been horrible lately.

Like I said, I'm on the Jays.
Might leave it at that.

Will post plays shortly.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Before I sink into the big sleep I want to hear the scream of the butterfly.

Before I sink into the big sleep I want to hear the scream of the butterfly.

PLAYS

jays -118 2.36/2


Taking it easy today.

Tomorrow could be more fruitful, depending on the lines they give us. I've got 6 games 'capped at 60% or higher for Tuesday, with 2 at over 70%. Braves (James-Sampson) will likely be too expensive for any value. D'Backs (Webb-Germano) I might try at up to -140 as Webb was great in his last while Germano has kinda fallen apart lately; 'Zona with the edge at the plate, too, but who doesn't have the edge at the plate vs the Padres? (besides the Nats). Dodgers (Penny-Lowry) I might grab a piece of at up to -150, but we might see a higher line than that, in which case it might be best to pass as Penny is recovering from a pulled abdominal muscle and the Dodgers bats have gone quiet the past week, after pouring things on following the AS break. Indians (Carmona-McCarthy) is one of the two 70's, as Carmona hasn't allowed a run over his past two starts and the Rangers look like crap lately (again); we'll see a -170 to -200 here, but the runline at near even money sounds promising. Yankees (Mussina-Contreras) will have the other 70?a HIGH 70?and I think I'll be way on the runline for that one (hopefully at no more than -125ish), and maybe the Yankees team total over 6?, as I have Contreras currently rated worse than any other starter has been rated this season; Mussina looked quite good in his last, too. Jays (Litsch-Jackson) will just make a 60%, as long as they win tonight, but Jackson has thrown one good game vs the Jays already this season so I think I need a better Jays line than today's if I'm going to try my boys; Jays lose tonight and I think I'll pass altogether. Other sides that might interest me include the Cards (Wainwright-Maholm) if we see close to even money, the Royals (De La Rosa-Silva) if we get +120 or better AND the Royals win tonight, the Angels (Lackey-Weaver) if we get even money (I doubt it), and the Tigers (Verlander-Haren) if we see close to even money AND the Tigers score at least 4or5 in the opener off of Blanton.

No system totals today but that will change tomorrow. Wainwright-Maholm will be a system under at a 9. Glavine-Suppan will be a system over at up to a 9.5. Webb-Germano will be a system under even at an 8 (it is Petco, after all). Lowry-Penny will also be a system under at an 8, but not at a 7.5, which we might see. Bedard-Becket should be a system under no matter what number they put up?can't imagine them giving us anything less than an 8 as this is Fenway, after all; I'm hoping for minimal juice on the under, if it's an 8, as I think that this one will definitely play under. Contreras-Mussina will be a system over even at an 11; Yankees over (no more than a 6, I hope) might be the smarter play as Contreras is likely dogmeat once again; Chisox long-relief is pretty bad, so Ozzie may have to decide whether to let Jose eat up innings for them while the Yanks put up huge numbers or else to serve up one of his loser firemen for the pinstripers to toy with; Mussina is unlikely to toss too many zeros as the Chisox bats have been much better lately (just not against Halladay and Marcum); this game might get some of my money for the runline, the over, and the Yanks over. Litsch-Jackson and De La Rosa-Silva would be system overs at 9's, but we'll likely see 10 or 10.5 for both games. Lackey-Weaver will be a system under at an 8.5, but if these clubs put up big numbers on Monday then I won't touch it, unless it's Eddings or Hirschbeck umping. Verlander-Haren will be a system under at an 8, but this one is less appealing to me than the Fenway total; I'll need to see what happens in the opener, and who the ump will be, before making any decisions on that one.

I've probably said more about tomorrow today than I will say about tomorrow tomorrow.

Tomorrow?Tomorrow?I love ya?Tomorrow?You're always a day awayyyyy.

See you tomorrow.
GL