Monday June 25th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday June 25th 2007

yesterday: 3-1 +2.43
June: 146-133 +10.07
ml 71-51 +9.22
rl 10-11 -6.01
totals 53-35 +23.05
parlays 12-36 -16.19
system picks 1-1 yesterday; now 119-73 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1-1 yesterday; now 64-36 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Atl 66 (-180)+1 RL 51 (+120)+5
Mets 66 (-160)+4 RL 51 (+131)+7
col 62 (+103)+12
Mil 70 (-175)+6 RL 56 (+125)+11
lad 60 (-129)+3
Sf 51 (-110)-2
Clev 56 (-132)-1
Det 72 (-210)+4 RL 58 (-105)+6
Tb 65 (-131)+8 RL 50 (+158)+11
tor 60 (-135)+2
bost 61 (-118)+6
Laa 74 (-291)-1 RL 61 (-122)+6

system totals

wash@Atl un8.5 81% (-115)+27
sd@Sf un8.5 69 (-106)+17
oak@Clev ov9.5 75 (-104)+24


Yesterday was a bit of a drag because of the Brewers bullpen choking away a slim lead; Brewers should have gotten more off of Perez. System is starting to hit the high 60's more frequently but 70's are still suffering. Interleague is finally freakin' over (YAHOO!!!) so I'm expecting results to start majorly improving. Got enough breaks in the Beckett-Peavy matchup to catch an under there, which really helped. Shoulda had more on the Tigers, apparently?what's up with the Braves these days? This Sunday is toast. Time for tomorrow. To hell with the Boomtown Rats?Monday looks promising?

For Monday, I'm either on or will be on the Mets, Rockies, Brewers, Dodgers, Tigers runline, D'Rays, Bosox, and maybe the Blue Jays. Sounds like a lot but most of them I'm just going to be in for a piece. Rockies, Brewers and D'Rays are system picks, while the Mets and Bosox are very close. To tell you the truth there isn't a single one of these that I'm in love with. Rockies are perhaps the closest, but they seem to have cooled off in their series with the Jays; Cubs looked okay in their last series, too, 'course that was against the Chisox. I can't pass on Francis for this price, the way he's pitching; I have Francis currently rated at his highest point for the season?he's on fire. D'Rays really punishing lefties this season (OPS .830) and Danks appears to be nothing special; question for this one is how Howell performs, but Chisox really struggling with lefties (OPS .680). Mismatch at the plate, that one. Brewers worth a shot with the sizzling Sheets; Brewers staying home and will be anxious to rebound here. Another HUGE line, though?I need to check my record on lines OVER -150?that's a project for tonight or during the next couple of days?might take a bit. As for the game, Astros Jennings has really cooled off his past couple of starts; I think the Brewers get more Monday than they scored on Sunday (3). Much of the Brewers pen got in the game yesterday, but nobody worked a long stretch?should be fine to close up for Sheets, here.

As for totals, I like 2 of the 3 posted above. Nats-Braves has a good chance to stay under, if Bergmann is anywhere as good as he was before going on the DL. Hudson's last 4 home starts have been brutal, but his last 2 starts have gone under and he was particularly sharp in his game prior to last, throwing 7 shutout innings at the Twins; against the woeful Nationals (OPS vs R .690) he has a good chance for similar results. Braves not hitting much for about the past week, and Nats pen (they'll be needed here) has been doing a good job for about the past month and a half. Giving it a try. The other total I like is Oak-Clev over the 9.5. A's hitting lefties (.770 OPS) much better than righties (OPS .718). Indians should be thrilled to get back home (OPS at home .817, OPS vs righties .789) and get to face a currently-struggling Gaudin; his last 2 starts (vs Astros and Reds) have been shaky, allowing 16 hits and 9 earned runs over that time (11 IP). Lee has been better his last couple but still owns a 5.01 era at Jacob's Field, opponent's hitting .295 off him there. Jacob's is a good hitter's park, and both clubs will be happy to be batting there after both just had to play road series at pitcher's parks. Both bullpens B-grade; pretty good but not phenomenal.

Will post picks later once prepared.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

Since system sides were at 107-107 for June (9 days ago), system sides have gone 70-35 over the past 8 days (66.6% winners), having a respectable day of 9-6 yesterday.

That brings June up to 177-142 (55.5% winners).
A far cry from May's 249-170 (59.4% winners).

System picks are the crucial ones;
for June just 37-30 (55.2% winners), this after
May's 52-23 (69.3% winners), and even
April's 30-20 (60% winners).

As I figure out my record for plays more expensive than -150 I will also make note of those that are system picks, paying special interest to see if the system is recommending more expensive plays over cheaper ones; I know it is, as the larger probabilities are generally always more expensive; I just need to know if the expensive system picks are working or not.
Overall, I'm ahead of the game.
I guess that's the bottom line.

Without further ado...

RESULTS (W-L)

?.............full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total.452-335..203-165...249-170?177-142
51??...31-28?.17-15??14-13??15-13
52??...28-23?.13-13??15-10??12-10
53??...31-26?.16-16??15-10??11-9
54??...28-24?..14-8?...14-16??11-12
55??...24-26?..9-12??.15-14??14-10
56??...29-16..?17-4??.12-12??7-10
57??...28-17?...8-6??..20-11??7-4
58??...19-16?...8-11??11-5??..13-6
59??...26-20?..11-11....15-9??..11-3
60??...23-21..?12-9??.11-12??6-7
61??...26-16?..10-8??.16-8??..6-3
62??...20-18?..10-8??.10-10??5-9
63??...25-17?..13-9??.12-8??..8-14
64??...18-16?..7-10??.11-6??..9-4
65??...20-13?..10-4??.10-9??..7-4
66??...19-10?...9-5??..10-5??..9-4
67??...13-8?.....6-2??..7-6???3-2
68??...10-5?.....5-4??..5-1???4-2
69??...4-4??...1-2??..3-2???2-2
70??...5-3??...2-2??..3-1???5-3
71??...6-2??...1-2??..5-0???5-2
72??...5-2??...1-1??..4-1???1-1
73??...5-1??...1-1??..4-0???1-0
74??...5-1??...2-1??..3-0???0-2
75??...1-2??...0-1??..1-1???1-2
76??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???0-1
77??...0-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0
78??...1-0??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79??...0-0???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...1-0???0-0??..1-0??...1-1
totals?..106-94?..45-53?..61-41?...64-36
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L302-255..122-111..180-144?
overall +/-.+47.19??-4.21?.+51.40?..
ml W-L?.186-111?.80-45?..106-66?.
ml +/-??+49.94?.+12.54?..+37.40?..
rl W-L??.19-21??..9-10?..10-11??
rl +/-??..-2.77??.-1.8??..-0.97??..
totals W-L...70-61?..25-22?..45-39??
totals +/-?.-1.05?...-5.2??..+4.15??..
parlays W-L..27-62??8-34?..19-28?...
parlays +/-?+1.07?...-9.75?..+10.82?.
system picks..82-43?..30-20?..52-23?.


The "full" column just has April and May's stats; I'll add June's when the month ends.

As you can see, many numbers are performing up to their quotas, certainly when you take a sample size as big as the full season's, anyway. Several numbers still hurtin' for June. 70's, in general, need to go on a good run to gain some credibility for the month, and even for the year; May's 23-3 is not going to be enough...need a solid July (something like a 20-5 would be nice) to get them back on track.

For totals, I have absolutely no complaints.
April was poor at 45-53 (45.9% winners), but
May things improved to 61-41 (59.8% winners) and
June is smokin' at 64-36 (64% winners).
Totals are a major bonus; I've been using this system (less thoroughly, in years past) for the past 5 or 6 years (can't even remember when I first started trying it) but I had never been able to incorporate totals like I have this season; it's really a simple formula...I'm quite shocked by the impressive results.

Overall I'm generally happy with the year's results.
If things stay the way they're going--or improve--I will be sure to make money.

Season is allmost halfway gone; I'm hoping to keep posting here for the duration...haven't quite pulled it off in years past. I owe Jack one for a favour about 5 years back...hopefully I'm helping his action out at least a little bit.

HEY JACK...how about sending me another T-Shirt?
The lucky shirt you sent me a number of years ago (5...6?...) is starting to get worn out.
Mine's grey.
Would love one in black...or dark blue would be cool.

Keep On Chooglin'

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Rockies, Brewers, D'Rays)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
I got slightly different lines, myself, but these are for current lines
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rockies 62% (-105)+10 V.I.

argument for game:
--Rockies .764 OPS vs righties
--Cubs .702 OPS vs lefties
--Francis comes in rated considerably higher than Marquis
--Francis is 5-1 in his past 6 starts, lowering his era by more than a run (from 4.60 to 3.44); this includes stellar work in his last two (vs Bosox and Yankees, no less)
--Marquis has not recorded a W since May 9th (Cubs are 4-4 in his starts since)
--both bullpens mediocre, but Rockies pen performing well past few weeks

-105 is 95.2 cents on the dollar
62 x 0.952 = 59.024
38 x -1.......= -38
--------------------------------
....................21.024%

That's excellent (anything over 20%); probably the best of the three.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Brewers 70% (-175 again?!?!?!)+6 V.I.

argument for game:
--Brewers OPS vs R .766
--Astros OPS vs R .721
--Sheets coming in currently rated higher than Jennings (ironically, Brewers overall pitching rating equals that of Rockies for their games, while Astros pitching gets the same rating as the Cubs pitching; pitching edges identical for these 2 games)
--Brewers had the evening off to get psyched up after a loss while Astros had to play a long, late one in Texas before travelling off to Milwaukee
--Brewers get a healthy home-field edge

-175 is a pitiful 57.1 cents on the dollar
70 x 0.571 = 39.97
30 x -1.......= -30
-------------------------------
...................9.97%

Well...almost not worth persuing.
Get more than double on the Rockies, with
8/30%=
only a 26.6% increase in risk.

Rockies the better play, so far.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

D'Rays 65% (-130)+8 V.I.

argument for game:
--D'Rays .843 OPS vs lefties
--Chisox .646 OPS vs lefties
(that is one huge gap)
--pitching rating identical, here
--Danks hasn't made it through 6 innings in his last 5 starts, meaning the D'Rays might get an early look at a very crappy bullpen
--Danks 1-3, 4.71 era on the road, giving up 8 HR over 36.1 IP
--Howell has been on a good start-bad start pattern; due for a good one here; in fact, both of his home games have been very well pitched (1-1 with a 1.20 era, opponent's hitting just .167 off him...'course...that's just a 2-game sample, but he threw 8 solid innings against the Royals and then 7 solid vs the Padres; similarly pathetic bats coming to greet him in this one)
--D'Rays get a healthy home-field edge AND the Chisox don't travel very well (OPS .657 on the road and they've scored the least runs on the road of any team in MLB)

-130 is 76.9 cents on the dollar
65 x 0.769 = 49.985
35 x -1......= -35
---------------------------------
.....................14.985%

Not bad, at 65% probability.
Rockies still look to be the better play.
Rockies with a
6.039/14.985%=
40% increase in ROI with only an
3/35%=
8% increase in risk.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

For the first day back on regular League schedules, I don't know if there's anything worth pounding today; weird things might happen; weird things can always happen first game of a series.

Looks like I'm going to have a number of smaller plays and hope for the best that way.
Still thinking about adding to my Rockies play, but the price has gone up (I got +103).

Going to 'cap Tuesday's action.
Should take 45 to an hour, doing it casually.
Should have Monday's plays resolved by then.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash

PLAYS

system picks

rockies +103 3/3.09
Brewers -175 3.5/2
D'Rays -130 2.6/2

other picks

Mets -160 1.6/1
dodgers -127 1.27/1
Tigers -1.5 -105 1.05/1
Jays -135 1.35/1
bosox -118 1.18/1

totals

wash@Atl un8.5 -115 1.15/1
oak@Clev ov9.5 -104 1.04/1

2-teamer (safest NL home teams)
--Mets ml (c'mon Sosa?take a deep breath, now?)
--Brewers ml (Hendrix Save The Bullpen!!!)
+145
0.81/1.19

2-teamer (best NL road bets)
--rockies ml
--dodgers ml
+232
0.6/1.4


I should leave the parlays alone already, the way they've gone for me in June; still, trying to get a little bit of it back here; even hit both and I don't dent my parlays minus much. Oh well?the damage is done. I'd be a little more thrilled with the Rockies selection if they had gotten a few more hits yesterday (got one off of McGowan!); Cubs winning their share lately, too, so it's hard to count them out here; Rockies are NOT the best road team in MLB. Brewers bag me again and I'll be staying away from -175s for a while. The D'Rays play has me nervous; could be a mistake, there. The other sides I'm on have a bit of value but not much. The totals I think I commented on earlier.

I've 'capped Tuesday's games and there's a mixed bag coming. Only 5 games will be listed at 60% or higher (Marlins,Mets,Brewers,D'Rays&Blue Jays). Marlins and Mets will both be above 70%; probably looking at a -160 to -180 for the Marlins, simply because they're playing the Pirates; Willis not very sharp lately but he's been good vs the Pirates while Maholm has been hit hard by the Marlins before; real difference here is the Marlins OPS vs L at .858 while the Pirates OPS vs L is .719. Mets will be ridiculously expensive, I'm sure, upwards around -200; a runline play, if it's near even money, might be worth a shot as Wellemeyer is very poundable and Metsticks seem to be getting it together. Brewers might be worth a look at -150, but we may not get that here; above that and there's no value in this Vargas-Rodriguez matchup, though the Brewers have been eating up lefties until facing the Royals Perez on Sunday. D'Rays might see a reasonable line (Shields-Garland) as Shields has cooled off his past 2 starts and Garland is about the best the Chisox have going right now. A repeat of today's -130 and it's in play for me; at -150 I might try for a unit?if the D'Rays win tonight. The steal of the day might come in the Jays-Twins game, as I don't know if the linesmakers have quite yet caught up to BOTH how GOOD Marcum is and how BAD Baker is; a couple of young kids going in this matchup will probably warrant a line fairly close to even, I would think (not sure how much they're adjusting for Morneau being out?or for that matter, I'm not sure just when Morneau is returning?could be this series); Jays are a fairly big favorite today and will probably command some juice tomorrow, but I don't think it will be much; Jays at -120 or -125 and I'm a player for a few units; will like it better if the Jays sticks can produce tonight against Slowey. Two dogs also stand out for me as possible winners for Tuesday; Reds have a shot to upset the Phillies (Bailey-Kendrick matchup) and we'll probably see a line of between +125 and +140 for the Reds?at +130 or better this game will actually be a system pick, as I've got it 'capped at Reds 54%. The other dog I'm curious to see a line for is the Orioles at home to the Yankees; Pettitte hasn't been great in 3 of his past 4 games, Orioles prefer facing lefties (OPS .751?still an edge to Yanks bats, here), and starter Guthrie has just been fantastic lately; I have the game 'capped at Yankees 52%, but for Nyy I'm expecting you'll have to pay close to -200; for a 48% call (Orioles) I'd need a +165 line (break even is 38%) for it to be a system pick; might get it. No totals really stand out for tomorrow, but I'm probably an under player if we can get a 10 in Tampa Bay?probably no more than a 9 for the Garland-Shields meeting. Totals I can't really do properly until I get the numbers; I could do them, it's just pointless.

Alright?I think I've said more about Tuesday's games than about Monday's, here. If I was a real mover and shaker I might want to hold back these thoughts, at least until I had a crack at the lines myself, but who's kidding who?I've done the work I might as well share the information. Besides, with me having a couple of late starts today I might not get Tuesday's numbers up until close to 1 am eastern.

See you then.
GL

 

[Hooks]

:00x3 YOU vs. the BOOK

 

[Regular Joe]

Ex,

I always enjoy reading your posts, but was wondering (time permitting) if you can explain some of the abbreviations you use, such as:

Rockies .764 OPS vs righties
--Cubs .702 OPS vs lefties (I'm not sure what the OPS is, but I'll probably kick myself when you tell me)

and the "line value indicators".

Continued success,
"Joe"

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

lol...thanks, Hooks...wish it were THAT easy!

Hey Joe (where you goin' with that gun in your hand?),
sorry so late in answering...needed some sleep.
OPS is "on-base+slugging percentage"; it' really the only offensive stat that I incorporate into my handicapping; as it includes key factors like walks and extra-base hits (not just homers), I think it is the most telling of all offensive stats.

Let's bring in some winners tonight!
(I'm looking so-so so far...too early to tell...)

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

OH MY GOD i'M GOING TO SHEET MYSELF...

FLIPPIN' ROCKIES, BABY!!!

c'mon bullpen...bring this one home to Papa!

:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

fvcker Fuentes
:com: