Monday May 14th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday May 14th 2007

yesterday: 4-5 -2.64
May: 77-58 +27.0
ml 41-17 +19.87
rl 8-8 -0.52
totals 14-20 -4.21
parlays 14-13 +11.86
system PLAYS now 57-28 (w.Lad) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

atl 65% (-178)even
Pitt 51 (-110)-2
Phil 60 (-117)+6
Mets 54 (-140)-5 cubs 46 (+134)+3
Sd 59 (-140)even
Lad 55 (-143)-4
laa 56 (-118)+1
Bost 64 (-140)+5
balt 54 (-130)-3
Oak 57 (-169)-6 kc 43 (+161)+4

system totals

cubs@Mets un8 79% (-115)+25
kc@Oak un7.5 78 (-125)+22

Bummer day yesterday with the Indians choke-show, the Jays not hitting Seo (give me a break!), and the Yankees bats non-existent. Bosox 9th inning miracle saved me 4 units with the 2-day parlay I posted Saturday. Can't hit totals to save my life.

System totals were 0-1 yesterday (me, too), now 22-15 for May (I'm hoping that improves, because I can't pass up the 2 posted above).

System picks coming WAY back to earth by going 5-10 yesterday.
System picks are 115-65 for May (63.8% winners).
More importantly, system PLAYS (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) are 27-8 for May (77.1% winners).

Light day expected.
Be back to post once I've consummated.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

No system sides, today.

Phillies are close with a +6 at 60% (needs +7).

Bosox are close with a +5 at 64% (need 65%).

Two I'm still thinking about.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Pitt

in Pitt

Willis 2-2, 2.79 era vs Pirates in 6.
A 2.79 is much better than his 5.40 of this year.
He hasn't really had a shut-down game this year, but gets a good shot here (Pirates OPS only .643 vs lefties).

Gorzelanny's really only had 1 bad game in '07, his last home start, vs Reds (has been great in 2, on the road, since).
1 decent, 6-inning start (2 er) vs Marlins last year.
Marlins OPS .857 vs lefties (was .880 end of April, so only a slight drop of late).

Marlins had some trouble iscoring n Washington, so this first game is a tough call.
Pirates large home-field advantage is what pushed them over to a 51%'er here; Marlins big edge with the sticks.
Edge Pirates starter and bullpen.

System says 53% under the 8.

I can't try it due to Willis's poor performance this year, and the Marlins big numbers vs lefties.

Not much value on the sides, either, for this coin-tosser.
Pirates playing the better ball last few.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Shea

at Shea

Glavine an era of 4.50 for 2 home starts, giving up 3 HR in 12 IP (was Braves and Phillies).
14-13 3.57 vs the Cubs.
Mets have won 6 of his 8 starts, inclluding past 3.
Cubs .738 OPS vs lefties (was .664 end of April, so they're hitting lefties recently).

Marquis threw 109 in his CG shutout of the Pirates 5 days ago.
He'll probably need bullpen help this time around (bullpen grade 73).
Granted, he's faced some weak competition, but he's been dominant (.175 OBA).
5-4, 3.96 vs Mets.
2-2, 4.38 in 6 starts+ at Shea.
Mets .767 OPS vs righties. .797 OPS at home.

Mets favored so small (54%) due to an edge to Cubs starter, here.
Edge Mets bats.
Slight edge Mets pen.
Both clubs off a solid win.

I may try and find out the ump for this one and pound the under if he's favorable.
Try a piece, for now.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in San Diego

in San Diego

System call is 60% for an UNDER, even though it's 7.5.
Padres OPS vs righties only .662.
.666 OPS at home.

Maddux 22-16, 3.54 vs Reds.
Reds .769 OPS vs righties.
'course...this is Petco.

Belisle's been slightly more on (4 starts) than off (3) this year.

Padres 59% is maybe a bit low, for this one.
Still...not low enough to get value at -140 (or high enough, as the case would be).
:shrug:

Might play it late, if it drops to -130 (fat chance).

Totally pass on the total.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in LA

in LA

Can't stand Tomko.
I won't play him here.

Too hard to say what Thompson will bring to the table.

Cards are tempting at +135.

cards 45% (+135)+2

Pretty crappy value, here.

Dodgers pen might save the Tomko start.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Texas

in Texas

Weaver threw one game, last year, at Ameriquest:
7 IP, 1 hit, 3 BB, 9 K.
Got a no decision as he has in all 3 of his starts vs Rangers (19.2 IP, 2 HR, 17 K, 3.66 era).
Rangers .716 OPS vs righties.

Millwood era of 6.00 at home, opponent's batting .346.
1-1, 3.46 vs in 4.
Has allowed 5 er in each of his past 3, none exceeding 6 IP.
Will need BP help, Rangers grade 71.
Angels OPS .724 vs righties.

System call is over 9.5 at 54%.
Not much of a call.

Angels are tempting, but not much value with the current line.
56% isn't much of a call, either, really.

I think the Rangers might earn the split, here.
Passing on the Angels temptation (for now).

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Boston

in Boston

Roberston 1-1 with an era of 8.49 in 2 starts at Fenway (obviously, he got crushed in (at least) 1).
1-2, 6.75 vs in 5.
Has seen his era steadily rise for the past 5 starts, getting plugged for 6 er in 4.2 vs M's in last.
Bosox .844 OPS vs lefties, .843 OPS at home.

Matsuzaka has been pretty brutal (7.58 era) at home, so far.
Was great in his last, at Jays.
Tigers OPS .769 vs righties.

My first inclination was towards the under, for this game...
(system call is under 10 at 53%)
...but on closer inspection I thnk the play is the Bosox

Almost a system play, anyway, so what the heck.
As long as they don't get stoned for 8 innings like yesterday.
Tigers probably good for 3 or 4, here, but Sox should out-produce that.

Both pens might be somewhat depleted, making an under call even less attractive.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Toronto

in Toronto

Jays OPS .881 vs lefties.
That's why such a low number (54%) for the O's.
Orioles .734 OPS vs righties.

Granted, Ohka is garbage, but he's a bit better than, say, Seo, who chucked a beauty yesterday :mj16:

Ohka 2-1, 1.65 vs O's in limited (16.1 IP).
Bedard 2-4, 5.14 in 10 vs Jays; 6.56 era on the road.

Jays are reeling, right now.
Glaus out hurts the offense.
No decent catcher, either.
Bullpen is starting to tank.

Still...O's not playing great ball, either.
O's at 54% sounds reasonable, here.
No value at -130.

Pass on this total; Ohka erratic; Jays bats in sewer.

Good time to fade the Jays.
I just can't do it here.
Maybe it's hometown bias.

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Oakland

in Oakland

Same matchup just occured May 9th, in KC.
Hoping for a similar 3-2 score (KC won last one).
Better ballpark, to boot.
A's .708 OPS vs righties, .667 at home.
Royals .698 OPS vs righties.

Haren threw 102, Meche threw 111...4 days rest.
May need bullpen help, here.
Big edge to A's, here (grade 72; Royals bp grade 60).

BP's might totally mess this up,
but I gotta try it.

A's at 57% may seem low, and maybe it is...a little.
Even at 62% I'd get no value at -170.
Need 63% just to break even on -170's.

Don't care who wins.
Just keep it down.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

they're giving none away...away...away...

they're giving none away...away...away...

PLAYS

Phillies -117 1.17/1
Bosox -140 2.1/1.5

cubs@Mets un8 -115 1.15/1
kc@A's un7.5 -120 1.2/1


Nice, calm, relaxing day?
?I'd try more on these totals, but my total plays have been total garbage, so my confidence in them has dropped. Maybe pump them up some near game time, if I get favorable ump information. Can't play the Braves today as they're not hitting, all of the sudden, the Nats are playing decent ball last few, and the line is too dang high.

I'd recommend fading the Jays, but I just can't do it?not today?for some reason.
They probably lose to Bedard & Co. here.

Hopefully Tuesday brings some more enticing action.
I haven't even looked at Tuesday yet?probably wait until I wake up later.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Washington

in Washington

I've gotta correct something, and didn't want to edit my PLAYS post.

Braves are hitting just fine, lately.
3 stinkers, at the plate, over the past 6, mind you.

I just don't know if they can hit Bergmann.
a few Bergmann starts:
1 hit in 6 IP @ Braves (2-0 win over Smoltz--no decisiion; he's 0-3 in 7).
2 hits in 7 IP vs Mets
2 hits in 6 IP @Milwaukee

Opponent's batting .177 against him this year.
Braves hitting .182 against him in 22.2 IP.

Give me an 8 and I might try the under.
4 of Bergmann's 7 starts have totalled 7 or less (2 of 3 at home).
3 of Smoltz's 8 starts have totalled 7 or less, including past 2.

Braves have won 7 of Smoltz's 8 starts, including 5 straight, but Nats are tempting here.
Bergmann might turn into something pretty special; would help if he could stretch his starts out a little longer (Nats BP grade 65...pretty poor).

Nationals 35% (+170)-3

No value, there.
Not if the 35% is at all accurate...
...pump it up 5% for a 'temptation bonus' (40% would be the ceiling for the Nats here, methinks) and I still have negligable value.

Need to hit 38% of your +170's to break even:

100 (risk)
---------------- % = 37.037...
270 (return)

I always round it up; even if it's like this.

Almost put the Braves on a parlay.
Think I'll just spectate.

Braves win DOES help my statistics, anyway...(can't miss ANOTHER 65%'er!...65% are only 2-3 for May, after a 10-4 April)...:com:

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

Might as well post this again...

SYSTEM STATS

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...115-65
51??...17-15?.17-15??6-4
52??...13-13?.13-13??5-7
53??...16-16?.16-16??7-5
54??...14-8?...14-8??..6-4
55??...9-12??9-12??.6-6
56??...17-4??17-4??.4-6
57??...8-6??...8-6??..10-4
58??...8-11??.8-11??3-3
59??...11-11?.11-11?...5-5
60??...12-9??12-9??.6-2
61??...10-8??10-8??.10-1
62??...10-8??10-8??.5-1
63??...13-9??13-9??.5-4
64??...7-10??7-10??.8-4
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-3
66??...9-5??...9-5??..6-1
67??...6-2??...6-2??..3-2
68??...5-4??...5-4??..2-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..1-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..3-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..2-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..3-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..1-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80??...0-0--------0-0??..1-0
totals?..45-53?..45-53??22-15
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


That's up to date.

I am outta here.

GL

:SIB

 

[Old School]

...just wanted to drop in and say a thank you for your homework on the games..
time consuming but priceless info..

keep up the great work..

dig a little deeper in Cubs seemingly better #'s vs lefties..a little deceiving in that the improved #'s were against two bums..

just happened to look hard into it this morning after seeing the avg. for Cubs vs lefties for the year..

there appears to be value in the under that is for sure..

I am just not sure that Marquis is all that and a bag of chips..


again..thanks for the homework


gl...........

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

please, more

please, more

Thanks a lot for the feedback, Old School.
Greatly appreciated.

Checking out what lefties the Cubs have faced lately was a good idea as there has been a significant increase from what were once brutal numbers vs lefties.

I can't think of everything, and that's why any type of feedback is great.

Praise and condemnation are both acceptable, so fire away!

Let me know if something about my system doesn't make sense, in particular.
I've been refining it for years but it's still far from perfect (flippin' ideal this month, though!):00hour

I was even thinking--if things go well with the system for a full season--of writing a book about betting on baseball. It's in the very early stages. Probably for a limited audience.

The preceeding admission is grounds for a desperate plea for constructive criticism.

Please let me know your thoughts.

I'm gonna try and keep this up for the whole season.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

with sugar on top?

with sugar on top?

ffsakes...I practically beg, but no response.
:shrug:

No thoughts?...Too busy?...

3-1 yesterday.
System picks 6-4. System totals 1-1 (missing the loser by a run).

Tuesday's numbers will be up shortly.