Monday: Mega Runs Under

[superbook]

Quite honestly, I had quit playing the Mega Runs because I couldn't find any real angle and got tired spending a lot of time capping the totals only to get my Mega bet cancelled when one game got rained out.

Tonight there's only four games and not much chance of rain so I like:

Mega Runs Under 37

If one game goes significantly under 9 then the Under should come in. For example if SF/PHI ends at 3-1 then the other 3 games have to average 11 runs each to go Over.

It seems like a good chance that one of these four goes way Under the total of nine.

 

[superbook]

8+4+5+?

 

[superbook]

30 went Under the 37.

For those of you who aren't familiar with this play, MEGA RUNS is the sum of the Totals of all of the games. I play it at Olympic but it's probably at other books too.

IMHO it's fairly easy to beat when you have a light card, but I don't think that you could hit it more than 50% of the time when you have a card with 10 or more game

- JOn

 

[Valuist]

S.B.-

I heard a guy on ESPN radio a few months ago talking about humidity and its effect on how far a baseball travels. He claimed that its a misconception that balls travel further in Denver, and to a lesser extent, Phoenix because of low humidity. The reason they travel further is 100% because of the altitude, and that high humidity actually increases their distance of travel. As the weather gets warmer, this could make this bet an easy target as we start seeing 70% humidity in June-August in many parks in the Midwest and East coast. Feist's site has a complete weather forecast for each park so you may want to check that out. But its probably a month or so before you could really put this to use. This looks like one of those bets that the linemaker probably spends very little time on, and slaps a number up to get action.

 

[superbook]

I think you're right about the linemaker slapping the number up; typically it's 0.5 - 1.5 runs higher than the sum of the Totals.

I'll keep an eye on the humidity angle but so far I haven't found any way to consistently beat the Mega, with the exception of playing it when there are only 4-5 games.

I'm sure that when there is a full card that the statistical variation to the mean or something keeps your chances of beating it consistently pretty low.

 

[THE HITMAN]

AHHHHHH I lost 3 wins to the rain already in Mega, so i have been laying off of that. It sure would be nice to get a 10 cent line with it, that would stir up more action I am sure. Olympic is the only book That I use that carries it...........Hit Em...... THE HITMAN