monday ncaa basketball: horizon and others .....

gman2

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butler bulldogs (+5.5)
butler bulldogs moneyline (+205)

not only is this a great situational spot for butler, its also a very favorable opponent as far as matchups go. butler catches uwgb just 48 hours after one of green bay's bigger wins of the last half-decade or so. uwgb was milwaukee's whipping boy for the last 5 years but played a near perfect game on saturday night to pull the upset against the panthers and avenge a 30-pt drubbing from earlier this year. buter has been terrible of late, but green bay is one of the best opponents butler could face right now. both teams are deficient in the rebounding department so butler wont have to worry about getting beat too badly in that area (hell, butler is the worst rebounding team in the horizon and they beat uwgb on the boards in the first meeting). both teams live on the perimeter and dont get a whole lot of production inside. textbook letdown spot for green bay, and butler is desperate for a win. bulldogs should have won the first meeting but let uwgb steal the game by going on a 13-0 run to close the game and win 57-50.

providence friars (+8.5)
providence friars moneyline (+300)

playing both ON providence and AGAINST pittsburgh here. ill still argue that providence is nowhere near as bad as their record. also not buying that pittsburgh is suddenly back to being a dominant big east team. theyve trailed at halftime in 4 of their last 5 home games. dominant teams dont need to put together 2nd half rallies against the likes of south carolina, bucknell, and georgetown. pitt also coming in off back-to-back comeback wins from double-digits down against two ranked teams (uconn and syracuse). now theyre back to being a big chalk and they simply have not performed well in that role this year. theyre a terrible free throw shooting team and they dont take control of the game from the tip like a truly good team should. if providence hangs around, theyre more than good enough to win here. when youre 0-6 in conference, all you really have to look forward to is the games against the ranked teams to salvage some pride. friars took #4 syracuse down to the wire and if not for a collapse would have knocked off #8 boston college. if providence can stay close, theyll be one pittsburgh mental lapse away from taking this one to the wire as well.
 
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thewinder

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gman, i know i've been buggin you lately on the totals, but i've been fairly successful at them lately. i like the over in the wm/toledo game tonight. my local has 140 and i see this game in the 150's. any thoughts?
 

vyrus858

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here we go again with Providence bro, I think all the times they screwed us over these last few weeks might be in our favor here, as they are def getting a inflated line...cant wait to watch the game
 

gman2

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winder:

i just saw olympic hang a 137.5 on that toledo total. i have to be honest, i dont see how in the hell that game goes under. it almost looks way too good to be true. these two played two absolute track meets last year, and with both teams coming off gms 48 hrs ago, im not seeing a sharp defensive effort from either one. toledo is definitely enigmatic and certainly inconsistent, but when they shoot the ball like they can, they put up pts in a hurry. i grabbed over 137.5 and didnt think twice.
 

tubbysmith

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G, with you on Butler, I got them at +7.5. Do you have any thoughts on the W-Mich/Toledo matchup? My line is Toledo -2.5.

good luck.
 

tubbysmith

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Check that G, I'm going to go with Toledo -2.5 and Butler +7.5. The Toledo series seems to be a home-dominated series of late. good luck.
 

Smitty

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gman, i love the butler play. i like providence, too, except for one concern. pitt just played a great half against the 2-3 zone. if i'm not mistaken, providence plays a similar zone as syracuse, just not as well. pitt might pick right up where they left off on saturday. that is the only factor that keeps me from really liking providence tonight (besides the fact that they continue to burn me).
 

thewinder

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gman, i would say our total looks good at the half. i had a fairly large play on it already, but when you posted your reply, i added even more.

thanks!!
 

gman2

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butler 2nd half under 69

bulldogs are gonna slow this game to a crawl in the 2nd half in my opinion. theyre a very difficult team to come back on because of their methodical offense. green bay is totally flat. butler jumped out 20-2. phoenix made a push but butler has controlled this game from the tip. bulldogs desperate for a win right now and i expect them to shorten the game by playing in the halfcourt every possession.
 

spang

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Well that 2nd half total was rather easy. Nice job ! Almost the exact scenario in the 2nd half at UNLV/ Air Force game, though the number was not quite as generous.
 
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