Monday Night Fixedball

[Mick Onofrio]

JINTS +6.5
1100/1000

They suck but Tampa is in shambles. Meshawn is gone but he was their only true possession receiver. McCardell is pulling up lame with a bad hammy. Jurevicious isn't close to 100%, BUCS defense is the most overrated in the NFL, BUCS have no true running threat, seriously...leave the Pittman and Jones accolades in Arizona where they belong. Bucs secondary is vulnerable to the deep ball if you can remember back to MNF vs the Colts, they are vulnerable to the RUN if you can remember what San Fran, Carolina, and Green Bay has done. They have tried to rally and it hasn't worked they have pointed fingers and finally they waive Meshawn, the only possession player on the team. I wonder if there will be any Todd Yoder Props tonight?

Now to the Jints...Barber will run all over this D because his strengths are in the flats where the Bucs have been exploited by several teams this year. Once a RB gets outside and into the flat it's basically a potential TD and almost a gain of 10+ everytime. Collins will exploit the cover two just like he exploited the Jets version of it a few weeks back. This Tampa Defense is built for QB's like Collins to terrorize. Manning did it, Farve did it, and Collins will do it. It's all about accuracy and getting the ball to the receiver before the help gets over and Collins is probably the most accurate QB in the league when it comes to putting a ball on a mark. I won't go as far to say Moneyline but I will say I'm playing the Jints +6 BIG.

 

[wcb4]

good luck to ya mick

 

[Franky Wright]

Mick,
You feeling Ok?
GL on this play......analysis makes sense.
Here is something for ya: Tampa Bay has now lost 3 straight games as a favorite, and teams that have lost 3 consecutive games as a favorite are only 17-30 ATS in their next game, including 6-20 ATS if their opponent has a win percentage of .500 or worse (2-15 ATS as a favorite or pick).
Hope you bang it!!!

 

[Hoops]

Favre did it?! He threw for 92 yards against TB last game. I wouldn't exactly call that 'terrorizing'.

Collins and Barber might get some yards, but as usual, you can expect them to either fumble or throw an INT in or near the redzone.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

I know I know

I know I know

Tampa is tough against the Pass BIG TIME. I think this is just too many points for Tampa to be laying. It's hard to find a reason to play either team but what it all boils down to is something has to give. I never expected this Giant's team to sink this low, in fact I thought they would be a money maker this year. I just see this as a spot the Giants can really take advantage of. If I'm wrong then it looks like the world wins and that's great because I never wish loss on anything. I jumped the gun by saying what I said about Tampa's D because it's the one thing that has remained a constant throughout the season with the exception of one game.

Here's what I'm getting out og the matchups...
Those dreaded Giants sweep tosses might actually be effective tonight. The Bucs are their own worst enemy on Defense in that they get caught over pursuing. The D Line gets a good push, the LB's read the sweep and get pushed behind the play. Now Barber is all alone in the flat with one or two defenders to beat. If the Giants can generate the type of running game they are capable of and Barber can get about 4-5 screen passes designed to get him in the flats with one man to beat, they will make this agressive defense of Tampa tentative enough to really push towards the outside 3rds of the field. That will leave the middle of the field open for play action passes to Toomer and CO. And throwing to the middle of the field is the only effective way to throw on the Bucs D. Those little out routes 7 yards off the line and into the flats usually end up as INT's for Brooks and Quarles in their drop zone that works like a charm. The D can't get confortable enough for the LB's to play a drop zone cover 2 if the running game is effective. Tampa, for the first time in 69 games, didn't record 1 sack versus GB last week. When you run the ball this Tampa D becomes a different unit.

For Brad Johnson...Gruden has basically counted on this man's arm all year. They have not established any type of running game that has any consitancy. Pittman has been the teams most reliable WR out of the Backfield. With both starting WR's dinged up pretty good the Bucs WILL have to run the ball in order to open up the passing chances. I think the Giants will be blitzing at an unusual rate tonight to MAKE Brad Johnson beat them instead of LETTING him beat them.

Kerry Collins will throw for around 190-210 with a TD or 2 and he will play well enough to win. Barber will get 80 on the ground and 40-50 in the air while Levens will probably get a TD.

24-17 Giants if they play mistake free in all facets of this game. They haven't put 4 quarters of football together yet this season so why should they tonight??? Because I know they will.

 

[Mick Onofrio]

HOOPS

HOOPS

You are dead on. Tampa has been great against the pass but I believe Collins has the kind of accuracy to expose some openings in the passing game. He is definately more than willing to make the throws and take the chances that most QB's would rather not take. Collins and Toomer should both have solid nights.