alabama (-2.5) 2 units. first off, a little gambling lesson. making this game a large play just because it's the nc game is dumb. unless you are privy to some serious inside information that isn't factored into the line. if that's the case, please share that information with me, you selfish bastard. ok, as usual, i've dug a little deeper into the first matchup than most people probably have. here's what i got:
in the first game, alabama moved the ball more consistently than lsu did. the reason is pretty clear. alabama has some semblance of a passing game. in fact, alabama only had one 3-and-out in regulation. all 4 of their 1st half drives resulted in FG attempts, including one drive that started at their own 4. 2 long misses (44 and 50) and a block on a 49-yard attempt kept them off the board the other 3 drives. early in the 4th quarter, they had marquis maze throw the ball on 1st and 10 at the LSU 28. needless to say, that was one of LSU's 2 2nd half INTs. the other brings me to what i think is a huge factor in this game. and i'm counting on the fact that i don't know more about football than saban and his OC. during that first matchup, every time mccarron threw an out, i noticed that he didn't have the arm strength or the timing required to complete that pass against a very good defense. i commented to my friend in the first half, probably several times, "if they keep throwing that pattern, one of them is coming back the other way." sure enough, late in the 3rd quarter, after alabama had gone up 6-3, got a stop, and had a decent drive going that started at their own 11, mccarron threw another out. this one came back to the 'bama 15, and 4 plays later, the game was tied. i still don't know how saban and his OC could not see what i could see, plain as day. that they simply could NOT throw the out with mccarron. and i trust they finally picked up on that while watching the film. unless mccarron's arm has gotten stronger in the last 9 weeks, or his timing has drastically improved, i really hope they learned from that. maybe some out-and-ups are in order. but if mccarron throws another INT on an out route tonight, i'm going down south and punching saban in the face. and handing him a bill for the money he cost me. he can afford it.
ok, moving on. on the other side of the ball, LSU only had 2 3-and-outs, but they didn't have the sustained drives that alabama did. i have to believe a big factor is the musical quarterbacks. the 2-quarterback system hasn't worked since the dallas cowboys in the early 70's. lee gives them their best chance, but if he's only going to play sporadically, he won't get into a rhythm. and les miles is dumb enough to continue to give jefferson most of the snaps.
so for me, it boils down to one team was able to consistently move the ball down the field in the first matchup (another amazing stat - despite only scoring 6 points, alabama only punted twice the entire game). IF (and yes, it's a big IF) they can have that level of success again, i have to believe they'll find the endzone a few times tonight, which should be enough to win this game by at least 3.
thanks to all madjackers for another great year of college football. :toast:
in the first game, alabama moved the ball more consistently than lsu did. the reason is pretty clear. alabama has some semblance of a passing game. in fact, alabama only had one 3-and-out in regulation. all 4 of their 1st half drives resulted in FG attempts, including one drive that started at their own 4. 2 long misses (44 and 50) and a block on a 49-yard attempt kept them off the board the other 3 drives. early in the 4th quarter, they had marquis maze throw the ball on 1st and 10 at the LSU 28. needless to say, that was one of LSU's 2 2nd half INTs. the other brings me to what i think is a huge factor in this game. and i'm counting on the fact that i don't know more about football than saban and his OC. during that first matchup, every time mccarron threw an out, i noticed that he didn't have the arm strength or the timing required to complete that pass against a very good defense. i commented to my friend in the first half, probably several times, "if they keep throwing that pattern, one of them is coming back the other way." sure enough, late in the 3rd quarter, after alabama had gone up 6-3, got a stop, and had a decent drive going that started at their own 11, mccarron threw another out. this one came back to the 'bama 15, and 4 plays later, the game was tied. i still don't know how saban and his OC could not see what i could see, plain as day. that they simply could NOT throw the out with mccarron. and i trust they finally picked up on that while watching the film. unless mccarron's arm has gotten stronger in the last 9 weeks, or his timing has drastically improved, i really hope they learned from that. maybe some out-and-ups are in order. but if mccarron throws another INT on an out route tonight, i'm going down south and punching saban in the face. and handing him a bill for the money he cost me. he can afford it.
ok, moving on. on the other side of the ball, LSU only had 2 3-and-outs, but they didn't have the sustained drives that alabama did. i have to believe a big factor is the musical quarterbacks. the 2-quarterback system hasn't worked since the dallas cowboys in the early 70's. lee gives them their best chance, but if he's only going to play sporadically, he won't get into a rhythm. and les miles is dumb enough to continue to give jefferson most of the snaps.
so for me, it boils down to one team was able to consistently move the ball down the field in the first matchup (another amazing stat - despite only scoring 6 points, alabama only punted twice the entire game). IF (and yes, it's a big IF) they can have that level of success again, i have to believe they'll find the endzone a few times tonight, which should be enough to win this game by at least 3.
thanks to all madjackers for another great year of college football. :toast:
