Monday Night... Smart Money

[pointspred fred]

Play Philly. Take the points and run like the wind. Just be smart and WAIT! The line will move in philly's favor as the day progresses. Some locals will have it at +8 close to game time.

I adore betting on these teams where the superstar has been ousted the week before with an injury. Especially teams with an above average running game and a great defense, on Monday night. San Fran should be a 4 point favorite or so, NOT 7-8.

Phily +7 or better 4%
Phily ML +250 2%

NFL........ Parity....... Or mediocrity?

 

[Skinar]

It seems to me that I read something by Nolan Dalla about teams which have lost their superstar QB or RB. The gist of the article was that the team tends to rally around the replacement, everyone really gives a great effort and those teams tend to cover more often than not. It might not have been Nolan but I'm sure I read that somewhere, the person who wrote the article went back and researched 5 years or so and found it to be something like a 58% winning angle. It was more pronounced with QBs than star RBs however.

I'm wondering if a tease is not in order for tonight since I'm guessing that Philly will play a little conservative tonight.

 

[pointspred fred]

That's sweet! Any idea where the article came from yet? I'd love to read it, as this is always one of my favorite bets to make. Obviously Eagles +7 could lose, but once again, I'll go against the obvious, and take Phily. I have to start to get smart and begin to track my "against the obvious" plays. I swear, for the last 15 years, if I totaled up all the plays that are so "obvious" and took my winning percentage going AGAINST them, it would have to be over 60 for sure. Games like Minny +8 this sunday are just scrumptious to bet on. New England was such an "Obvious play"
Tonight the "Obvious play" is San fran. PLUS ANY time there is a team with a damn nice running attack, and an even better defense, getting more than a TD in a nationally televised game, I'll put the points in my pocket, and walk away. Look for Eagles to be nice and conservitive, MOST of the time But I think they run 1 or 2 trick plays to keep San Fran honest. Special teams will be a biggy for eagles tonight.


PSF

 

[Skinar]

Fred, that article may be in Nolan's archives somewhere, or possibly in MJ's archives off the front page, I wish I could remember.

You make a good point about going against 'the obvious'. I, too, try to pick a game where you think that it's just too good to be true and then bet the other way - because it's usually too good to be true. I had the Vikes myself but after that first half I thought I had outsmarted myself, the second half was quite a relief.

I'm going to go with the Eagles and the Under and then tease those two together as well.

Good Luck

 

[djv]

What the hell sweet, scrumptious.nice. Later!

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Here is what Im wondering---last nite looked the same, just looked too easy taking Denver against Indy at home, and looked what happened......I had the Colts last nite and won, and was wondering if Vegas will let the same happen tonite, or will they let the squares win? How did they do this past weekend--anyone know?

 

[gardenweasel]

agree

agree

every place i look,all 49er action...my only worry is that the under seems to be heading south quickly....the teaser angle appeals to me...waiting for the line to rise,and then the total drops the total drops...

 

[vchipsliu]

Well said, PSF
Feel the same thing with your points.....


GL tonight

 

[bej0101]

i think backup qb's are successful when they take over DURING a game because the defense has not had the chance to prepare for him and his style..HOWEVER with a full week to prepare ,the results are usually not good for the backup

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Well, I guess all the squares are getting home and logging on cuz the line is starting to move.........already got san fran -120, that should move a half a point within the next 30 mins........I will grab Philly +8 if it goes there........

 

[FED]

dont think it will move, lets hope,

GO mcnabless dirty birds!!

 

[pointspred fred]

So the real question is............

What's the better teaser:shrug:

Philly getting 14 or 15??

San Fran in a pick 'em?

Over 30.5? Under 44.5??


Eagles +14 or more OVER the total of 30.5 sounds to good to pass up........... Right?

 

[Easywind]

Fred Crushes

Fred Crushes

Nice call, Fred.

I was actually leaning towards SF & the over, but put all my jack on the over and completely avoided a side bet. I couldn't put my finger on this game at all, and my late Philly lean swayed me to stay away. That's as good as a winner in my book.

Hog potato,
Karl Hungus

 

[Skinar]

Good job Fred. I wish I had been with you on the OVER instead of the under, especially the teaser which I ended up losing by that last field goal.

Damn birds looked pretty good last night even without McNabb, makes them look like an even better playoff team to me, they showed some heart I thought and rallied around Detmer - classy outfit, a reflection of their head coach. BTW, Detmer is about the ugliest looking QB on the field in terms of fundamentals but he does seem to inspire his teammates with his determination. I wonder if any other NFL teams might take note - it's not always the athleticism but the athlete, think Joe Montana.

 

[pointspred fred]

Skinar wrote:

Detmer is about the ugliest looking QB on the field in terms of fundamentals....... Yes but have you ever seen an uglier player in terms of physical attributes as well? My god man! That is one weird looking freak of a dude. It's not hard to believe that his arm almost fell off when he fell on it, considering the guy hasn't lifted a weight in his entire carreer. And that face! Wow! LMFAO

Let's crush this week in the NFL BABY!