07:05 TOTAL u7-110 (MIA MARLINS vrs PHI PHILLIES) ( J FERNANDEZ -R / A NOLA -R )
07:10 TOTAL o10.5 -105 (MIN TWINS vrs DET TIGERS) ( R NOLASCO -R / M BOYD -L )
10:05 TOTAL u8-105 (TEX RANGERS vrs LA ANGELS) ( A GRIFFIN -R / N TROPEANO -R )
10:10 TOTAL u7.5 -105 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs SEA MARINERS) ( C SALE -L / W LEBLANC -L )
08:40 COL ROCKIES -137 ( D SMYLY -L / T ANDERSON -L )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-106, -28.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
the Chicago White Sox opted to give Chris Sale an extra day, as he was originally scheduled for Sunday. Now he draws a date in the Pacific Northwest against the Seattle Mariners. Sale's strikeout rate is markedly down, and its decline is supported by a lower swinging strike rate along with fewer first-pitch strikes. It's premature to confidently declare this is a new baseline for the ace, though the safe approach is to temper expectation in terms of strikeouts going forward. There's nothing wrong with a rate right around a batter per inning, but it's just not the double-digit level everyone anticipated.
let's tackle the Coors Field dilemma as Drew Smyly and the Tampa Bay Rays head to the mountains for an interleague tussle against Tyler Anderson and the Colorado Rockies. There's no more challenging rest-of-season projection than Smyly. The number crunchers still love him, contending all he needs to do is get the homers under control. The watch-the-game crowd asks, "Have you seen him pitch?" As a card-carrying member of both factions, I'm still on the Smyly bandwagon but have a hard time trusting him a mile high.
Tampa Bay vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
I'm not sure that the thin air at Coors Field is even enough to save this sorry Rays offense. They are dead last in the American League in terms of runs scored this year, so losing the designated hitter certainly will do them no favors in this series. Meanwhile, the Rockies may have been shutout Sunday, costing them a series sweep in Atlanta, but their offense should be just fine back at home. I like Colorado in the opener of this Interleague series.
Tyler Anderson is a name to keep an eye on. The Rockies rookie southpaw looks capable of doing what you need to do to be a somewhat successful pitcher in this hitter-friendly park and that's strike batters out. He has a 32-6 KW rate in 35 2/3 IP, which is very good, especially considering four of his six starts have come here at home. Given that Anderson has allowed 3 ER or less in EVERY start, a 2-4 TSR seems grossly unfair.
Meanwhile, I'm not sure if there's is anything to like with TB starter Drew Smyly. Over his L3 starts, he is 0-3 w/ a 9.19 ERA and 2.042 WHIP. So, it's not as if he's deserving of a win anytime soon. He's obviously not very familiar with the venue and facing a lineup averaging 6.3 rpg here certainly poses some very real problems. Smyly is 2-10 in his 17 starts. Rockies are just the better team here and should be in a loftier price range.
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -133
Colorado rookie Tyler Anderson takes the mound with an impressive 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over four starts this season. The talented southpaw also possesses very strong underlying metrics, including a 3.33 FIP, 2.94 xFIP and a 3.18 SIERA over 35.2 innings of work. Interestingly, Anderson has excelled in the thin air of Coors Field where curve balls don't curve and sinkers don't sink. Indeed, the 26-year-old owns a 2.62 ERA, a 2.57 FIP and a 2.60 xFIP in 24.0 innings pitched at home.
Anderson also owns a 24.5% K% (9.75 K/9), a 3.8% BB% (1.50 BB/9), a 20.8% K-BB% and a 0.75 HR/9 rate at home despite having an incredibly unsustainable .392 BABIP. I also like the fact the underrated lefty boasts an elite 59.8% ground ball rate. Anderson's changeup is inducing swing-and-misses on more than a third of swings, while his cutter is inducing ground balls almost a 70% of the time.
According to Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs, if the season ended today, Anderson would own the highest single-season ground ball rate of any Colorado pitcher since 2002 when Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) began tracking that data. Anderson should have continued success against a scuffling Tampa Bay lineup that is average just 3.9 runs per game this season (.300 OBP; .709 OPS), including 3.7 runs per game in interleague play (.312 OBP; .729 OPS) and 2.3 runs over its last seven games (.270 OBP; .611 OPS).
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay left-hander Drew Smyly has grossly underperformed this season as evidenced by his 5.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Smyly is also 2-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road, 1-7 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at night, 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP versus National League foes and 0-3 with a 9.19 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his last three outings. The struggling 27-year-old has allowed six runs in three consecutive starts for the first time in his career and is 0-6 in his last nine starts overall.
Smyly's 4.46 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA suggest that he hasn't pitched as poorly as his surface statistics suggest, and he has also been incredibly unlucky with men on base (63.2% LOB%). The southpaw also owns a solid 25.2% K% and 6.3% BB%, but a 1.79 home run rate has contributed to his poor overall numbers. Let's further note that Smyly posted a 6.85 ERA and a 5.10 FIP in June, together with a 2.66 HR/9 rate!
The Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts overall and 1-4 in his last five road outings. Tampa Bay is also a money-burning 6-18 in its last 24 road games, 7-21 in its last 28 games on grass, 5-13 in its last 18 interleague games versus left-handed starters and 15-37 in its last 52 games overall, including 2-11 in its last thirteen. With Colorado averaging 6.3 runs per game at home (.371 OBP; .882 OPS) and 7.0 runs per game in interleague play (.355 OBP; .866 OPS), take the Rockies and invest with confidence.
----
Nola will not pitch Thursday in Colorado. Instead, he will pitch a simulated game and use the time to rest his body and clear his mind. He allowed five runs in five innings Saturday in a 6-2 loss to the Royals, making him 0-4 with a 13.50 ERA in his last five starts. Nola retired the final 10 Royals he faced, striking out six of them, but it wasn't enough to keep him in the rotation. "They talked to me beforehand," Nola said. "I understand the process. I'm still going to get my work in. I'm going to throw a simulated game, simulate a couple innings in Colorado. The main key and the important part is I feel healthy and feel strong right now."
Phillies +185
The one thing keeping me from releasing this game as a Premium pick is the uncertainty about Aaron Nola for the Phillies. I know Nola has one of the game's best curveballs, but fell in a rut after starting the season strong. The team website says that Nola has been given extra time for rest and that he has figured out the mechanical flaws that were ailing him. I have the feeling he pitches a gem tonight but need to see for myself before making this a 10* play. For that reason, I will tread lightly and recommend a 1* wager on the Phillies ML and another 1* wager on the Phillies +1.5 runs on the Runline.
For the Marlins, they will send Jose Fernandez out who is a fan favorite to bet on. I like Fernandez when he pitches at Marlins Ballpark, but on the road it is a different story and especially when installed as a road favorite as the Marlins are 2-8 in his career as a road favorite. Digging deeper, they are 0-4 when Fernandez is listed as a -150 or greater road favorite as he is tonight.
The Phillies have won 69% of the last 53 meetings in Philly so we have a strong historical edge on our side along with the fact that the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.
This is a great low risk high reward wager tonight. (1* Phillies Moneyline / 1* Phillies +1.5 Runs Runline)..I advise playing both for the same amount.
N.Y. Mets +137 over CHICAGO
Jon Lester?s pedigree speaks for itself. Over the past decade or so, Lester has remained one of the most reliable and consistent starting pitchers in the game. There is no question that he?s capable of throwing a complete gem here but that?s something we are not concerned about. Our mission is to find overvalued teams/pitchers and let the chips fall where they may. For what it?s worth, Lester has a 6.89/4.76 ERA/xERA split over his last five starts with a 1.56 WHIP.
The Cubs sizzling start that saw them playing above .700 for the first two months of the season was unsustainable and now they?re playing barely above .600 (.604). However, the market still sees them as this powerhouse of a team when in fact they are not. Chicago is batting .251 over the past 40 games, which ranks 23rd out of 30 teams. The Cubs rank in that range in many other key offensive stats too. Chicago?s offense struggles miserably against quality starters and they?ll face one here in Steven Matz.
Matz entered 2016 with a great deal of fanfare following a brief but splendid six-start 2015 MLB debut but he also entered in the shadows of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. He has been impressive in 2016, sporting a 3.38 ERA in 96 innings and things figure to get even better because Matz has displayed tremendous skills. His already respectable strikeout rate has been kicked up a notch in 2016, thanks in part to increased usage of his slider (13% swing and miss rate). He rarely threw the slider in 2015 (2%), but he has thrown it 12% of the time in 2016 and it has been his second best pitch in terms of swinging strikes. Matz?s superb control (23 walks in 96 innings) comes fully supported by Ball% and first-pitch strike rate. The groundball tilt he showed in the minors has carried over nicely to MLB. His 53% elite groundball rate has helped him keep the ball in the yard (0.3 hr/9 in 380.2 IP in minors; 0.9 hr/9 in 132 MLB IP). Matz has thoroughly dominated right-handed batters too. It?s tough not to get excited about taking back a tag like this with Matz on the hill. If this ticket gets ripped up, so be it but Matz is a great bet to remain highly effective the rest of the season. This is a young starter who knows how to pitch.
07:10 TOTAL o10.5 -105 (MIN TWINS vrs DET TIGERS) ( R NOLASCO -R / M BOYD -L )
10:05 TOTAL u8-105 (TEX RANGERS vrs LA ANGELS) ( A GRIFFIN -R / N TROPEANO -R )
10:10 TOTAL u7.5 -105 (CHI WHITE SOX vrs SEA MARINERS) ( C SALE -L / W LEBLANC -L )
08:40 COL ROCKIES -137 ( D SMYLY -L / T ANDERSON -L )
1 unit bet pays 23 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 10-106, -28.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
the Chicago White Sox opted to give Chris Sale an extra day, as he was originally scheduled for Sunday. Now he draws a date in the Pacific Northwest against the Seattle Mariners. Sale's strikeout rate is markedly down, and its decline is supported by a lower swinging strike rate along with fewer first-pitch strikes. It's premature to confidently declare this is a new baseline for the ace, though the safe approach is to temper expectation in terms of strikeouts going forward. There's nothing wrong with a rate right around a batter per inning, but it's just not the double-digit level everyone anticipated.
let's tackle the Coors Field dilemma as Drew Smyly and the Tampa Bay Rays head to the mountains for an interleague tussle against Tyler Anderson and the Colorado Rockies. There's no more challenging rest-of-season projection than Smyly. The number crunchers still love him, contending all he needs to do is get the homers under control. The watch-the-game crowd asks, "Have you seen him pitch?" As a card-carrying member of both factions, I'm still on the Smyly bandwagon but have a hard time trusting him a mile high.
Tampa Bay vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
I'm not sure that the thin air at Coors Field is even enough to save this sorry Rays offense. They are dead last in the American League in terms of runs scored this year, so losing the designated hitter certainly will do them no favors in this series. Meanwhile, the Rockies may have been shutout Sunday, costing them a series sweep in Atlanta, but their offense should be just fine back at home. I like Colorado in the opener of this Interleague series.
Tyler Anderson is a name to keep an eye on. The Rockies rookie southpaw looks capable of doing what you need to do to be a somewhat successful pitcher in this hitter-friendly park and that's strike batters out. He has a 32-6 KW rate in 35 2/3 IP, which is very good, especially considering four of his six starts have come here at home. Given that Anderson has allowed 3 ER or less in EVERY start, a 2-4 TSR seems grossly unfair.
Meanwhile, I'm not sure if there's is anything to like with TB starter Drew Smyly. Over his L3 starts, he is 0-3 w/ a 9.19 ERA and 2.042 WHIP. So, it's not as if he's deserving of a win anytime soon. He's obviously not very familiar with the venue and facing a lineup averaging 6.3 rpg here certainly poses some very real problems. Smyly is 2-10 in his 17 starts. Rockies are just the better team here and should be in a loftier price range.
Tampa Bay Rays at Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies -133
Colorado rookie Tyler Anderson takes the mound with an impressive 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over four starts this season. The talented southpaw also possesses very strong underlying metrics, including a 3.33 FIP, 2.94 xFIP and a 3.18 SIERA over 35.2 innings of work. Interestingly, Anderson has excelled in the thin air of Coors Field where curve balls don't curve and sinkers don't sink. Indeed, the 26-year-old owns a 2.62 ERA, a 2.57 FIP and a 2.60 xFIP in 24.0 innings pitched at home.
Anderson also owns a 24.5% K% (9.75 K/9), a 3.8% BB% (1.50 BB/9), a 20.8% K-BB% and a 0.75 HR/9 rate at home despite having an incredibly unsustainable .392 BABIP. I also like the fact the underrated lefty boasts an elite 59.8% ground ball rate. Anderson's changeup is inducing swing-and-misses on more than a third of swings, while his cutter is inducing ground balls almost a 70% of the time.
According to Alex Chamberlain of FanGraphs, if the season ended today, Anderson would own the highest single-season ground ball rate of any Colorado pitcher since 2002 when Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) began tracking that data. Anderson should have continued success against a scuffling Tampa Bay lineup that is average just 3.9 runs per game this season (.300 OBP; .709 OPS), including 3.7 runs per game in interleague play (.312 OBP; .729 OPS) and 2.3 runs over its last seven games (.270 OBP; .611 OPS).
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay left-hander Drew Smyly has grossly underperformed this season as evidenced by his 5.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Smyly is also 2-4 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road, 1-7 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at night, 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.27 WHIP versus National League foes and 0-3 with a 9.19 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his last three outings. The struggling 27-year-old has allowed six runs in three consecutive starts for the first time in his career and is 0-6 in his last nine starts overall.
Smyly's 4.46 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA suggest that he hasn't pitched as poorly as his surface statistics suggest, and he has also been incredibly unlucky with men on base (63.2% LOB%). The southpaw also owns a solid 25.2% K% and 6.3% BB%, but a 1.79 home run rate has contributed to his poor overall numbers. Let's further note that Smyly posted a 6.85 ERA and a 5.10 FIP in June, together with a 2.66 HR/9 rate!
The Rays are 0-4 in his last four starts overall and 1-4 in his last five road outings. Tampa Bay is also a money-burning 6-18 in its last 24 road games, 7-21 in its last 28 games on grass, 5-13 in its last 18 interleague games versus left-handed starters and 15-37 in its last 52 games overall, including 2-11 in its last thirteen. With Colorado averaging 6.3 runs per game at home (.371 OBP; .882 OPS) and 7.0 runs per game in interleague play (.355 OBP; .866 OPS), take the Rockies and invest with confidence.
----
Nola will not pitch Thursday in Colorado. Instead, he will pitch a simulated game and use the time to rest his body and clear his mind. He allowed five runs in five innings Saturday in a 6-2 loss to the Royals, making him 0-4 with a 13.50 ERA in his last five starts. Nola retired the final 10 Royals he faced, striking out six of them, but it wasn't enough to keep him in the rotation. "They talked to me beforehand," Nola said. "I understand the process. I'm still going to get my work in. I'm going to throw a simulated game, simulate a couple innings in Colorado. The main key and the important part is I feel healthy and feel strong right now."
Phillies +185
The one thing keeping me from releasing this game as a Premium pick is the uncertainty about Aaron Nola for the Phillies. I know Nola has one of the game's best curveballs, but fell in a rut after starting the season strong. The team website says that Nola has been given extra time for rest and that he has figured out the mechanical flaws that were ailing him. I have the feeling he pitches a gem tonight but need to see for myself before making this a 10* play. For that reason, I will tread lightly and recommend a 1* wager on the Phillies ML and another 1* wager on the Phillies +1.5 runs on the Runline.
For the Marlins, they will send Jose Fernandez out who is a fan favorite to bet on. I like Fernandez when he pitches at Marlins Ballpark, but on the road it is a different story and especially when installed as a road favorite as the Marlins are 2-8 in his career as a road favorite. Digging deeper, they are 0-4 when Fernandez is listed as a -150 or greater road favorite as he is tonight.
The Phillies have won 69% of the last 53 meetings in Philly so we have a strong historical edge on our side along with the fact that the Phillies are 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.
This is a great low risk high reward wager tonight. (1* Phillies Moneyline / 1* Phillies +1.5 Runs Runline)..I advise playing both for the same amount.
N.Y. Mets +137 over CHICAGO
Jon Lester?s pedigree speaks for itself. Over the past decade or so, Lester has remained one of the most reliable and consistent starting pitchers in the game. There is no question that he?s capable of throwing a complete gem here but that?s something we are not concerned about. Our mission is to find overvalued teams/pitchers and let the chips fall where they may. For what it?s worth, Lester has a 6.89/4.76 ERA/xERA split over his last five starts with a 1.56 WHIP.
The Cubs sizzling start that saw them playing above .700 for the first two months of the season was unsustainable and now they?re playing barely above .600 (.604). However, the market still sees them as this powerhouse of a team when in fact they are not. Chicago is batting .251 over the past 40 games, which ranks 23rd out of 30 teams. The Cubs rank in that range in many other key offensive stats too. Chicago?s offense struggles miserably against quality starters and they?ll face one here in Steven Matz.
Matz entered 2016 with a great deal of fanfare following a brief but splendid six-start 2015 MLB debut but he also entered in the shadows of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey. He has been impressive in 2016, sporting a 3.38 ERA in 96 innings and things figure to get even better because Matz has displayed tremendous skills. His already respectable strikeout rate has been kicked up a notch in 2016, thanks in part to increased usage of his slider (13% swing and miss rate). He rarely threw the slider in 2015 (2%), but he has thrown it 12% of the time in 2016 and it has been his second best pitch in terms of swinging strikes. Matz?s superb control (23 walks in 96 innings) comes fully supported by Ball% and first-pitch strike rate. The groundball tilt he showed in the minors has carried over nicely to MLB. His 53% elite groundball rate has helped him keep the ball in the yard (0.3 hr/9 in 380.2 IP in minors; 0.9 hr/9 in 132 MLB IP). Matz has thoroughly dominated right-handed batters too. It?s tough not to get excited about taking back a tag like this with Matz on the hill. If this ticket gets ripped up, so be it but Matz is a great bet to remain highly effective the rest of the season. This is a young starter who knows how to pitch.
