Monday pitcher rematches

[Valuist]

YTD: 17-5 +12.6 units

MILWAUKEE +115 (Neugebauer)--not only do we have the rematch going w/a live home dog, we also have momentum on this one. The Reds blew a seemingly insurmountable 8-0 lead yesterday; that could send them reeling. The Brew Crew just won 3 straight on the road in Chicago. Even though Cincy won on May 8, Rijo pitched poorly vs the Brew Crew.

KANSAS CITY +125 (Affeldt). Minny's first road and grass game since April 28 won't hurt.

 

[sdf]

V...why not Houston with Redding over Philly and Duckworth?
is it because Mesa blew the save (and Duckworth's win/Redding's loss)?

Thanks.

 

[Valuist]

SDF--

You're right. Adding one more.

HOUSTON (Redding) -112

 

[superbook]

V --

Thanks for posting.

I was thinking that the pitcher revenge theory works because a lot of bettors figure that if a team/pitcher just beat another team/pitcher that they'll do it again. I often read this "logic" in some people's game write-ups.

And perhaps Vegas encourages this thinking by making the revenge pitcher a slight dog? Seems like a lot a these rematches are small dogs.

gl, I'm on these games.

- Jon

 

[Valuist]

Absolutely. I think a lot of pitchers who get beaten by Team A make adjustments and work the hitters differently next time around; everything is fresh in their mind. OTOH, the pitcher that won the initial meeting may be overconfident. The hitters are also making adjustments after they struggle the first time.

Its kind of ironic I'm posting this starting pitching oriented angle because I definitely feel starting pitching is overrated. I used to devote 80% of my capping to starting pitchers and I've cut back to believing that starting pitching is at most, 50% of the solution. This year I've been spending more time following bullpens, hitting and overall team play, and its been very beneficial. Most starters don't pitch more than 6 innings. But at least we have one profitable angle from them.

 

[shultz]

Valueist thanks for keeping up on this really appreciate the info. Best of Luck tonight.

 

[JJP]

Looks like we caught a break on the Milw/Cincy game as I see Neugebauer was scratched. Note to any newbie following this thread: you MUST list both pitchers in these plays.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

great thread valuist....!!!

keep it coming....!!

 

[nemo]

can someone post the criteria for the system again please? thanks

 

[superbook]

System criteria:

The game is a rematch of the same two teams and same two pitchers

- for the two pitchers, the re-match occurs just 1-2 starts after their first meeting

- one of the two pitchers took the Loss in the first game (but the other didn't need to get the Win)



According to Valuist's original post, in Mike Lee's book "Betting the Bases", he did a 3 year study of this system and it produced the results of 65-31 with a ROI of 15%.

YTD: 18-6, +12.6 units

 

[superbook]

Looks like a number of games for Tuesday including big dogs TB and TX.

TB +312 at Canbet.

 

[nemo]

in that case why was houston a system play today?

 

[superbook]

I think you're right, looks like HOU was not a system play as Cruz not Redding took the 5-3 loss.

Well I played it anyway and fortunately it won!!!

- Jon

 

[superbook]

If I'm right, looks like four plays for today:

HOU, TX, TB and BAL

 

[sdf]

curious why it matters that one of the pitchers took the loss.
does he have extra incentive to not lose again?


redding SHOULD have lost the game down 3-2(?) in the 9th, but Mesa gave up the tying run in the 9th, with Philly winning it for him in the bottom of the inning.

neither starter got the decision, but should have were it not
for Jose....

 

[Valuist]

SDF--

Yes, he has much more incentive. As fans, we want to think its all about team, but in reality, one's own personal stats dictate their paycheck. And the first thing a pitcher thinks about is his w/l record; ERA is certainly important, but who is an owner going to be willing to pay more? A guy who's 18-12 with a 4.05 ERA or a guy that's 9-15 with a 3.55 ERA? Each loss hurts come contract time, so there's plenty of incentive. The fact that its a quick rematch reinforces the incentive and momentum. As for why the other teams pitcher must be the same, I'm afraid that's tougher to explain. Maybe the loser from game 1 has more negative vibes from the pitcher that beat him. It isn't my theory to interpret; only someone else's theory to bet.