Monday Plays MLB

[ndnfan]

I'm playing 2 games today for 2 units each.

Florida +145
LA Dodgers -1.5 Runline -115

The deciding factors in these games for me are as follows:

Dempster is a career 5-0 vs Montreal and this year he is 2-0 with a tiny era of 1.62. Vazquez is almost as good career wise with a record of 5-1 vs Florida, but this year he's 2-1 with a HIGH era of 6.00
Florida's Dempster and Montreal's Vazquez matchup great in this game, both are in great form and I have the game at pretty much pickem..so I'll take the +145 UNDERDOG

As far as the Dodgers game goes. San Diego just cannot hit Brown...he owns the Padres. This year vs. the Pads he's 3-0 with a microscopic era of 0.48
Padres are starting Jason Middlebrook, a callup from AAA Portland. At Portland, he was 3-4 with a 3.50 era. Very respectable, but remember this is his Major league debut and he's gonna have no support from the crowd and IF he can keep his nerves in check and that's a BIG IF, the Dodgers may struggle the first time around the batting order, but they will get to him next time around or later in the game. I don't play many runlines, but I think it's a bargain here. Can't see the Pads doing much scoring.

Good Luck in your plays today.

-ndnfan

 

[Never Caught Up]

ndnfan,

I really respect your picks as you tend to consistently be one of the few cappers on here that hits in excess of 60% and I certainly don't like to go against you, but I have questions about FLA tonight. I was looking hard at MON until I read your write-up.

FLA is 2-10 on Mondays, 6-17 in road series openers, and 11-26 away at night vs righthanders this year.

I may just pass on this one. I can't take FLA and hate to go with MON when you feel this strongly about FLA. I will have to give this game more thought.

 

[superbook]

I looked hard at Florida too but have decided to pass.

while the Expos are 2-7 in L9 at home, the Marlins are 2-11 in last 13 on the road.

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks for the comments guys....I love hearing everyone's opinions, thats what makes this sight great.
Florida's road stats vs righties are horrible but Montreal vs righties at home are just as bad:

Florida vs Righties on the road: 13-21
Montreal vs Righties at home: 14 -26

I guess you can make a case for both, I just feel this game's almost identical....gotta go with what I feel is a nice overlay in Florida.


Again good luck in whatever you decide to play today

 

[Valuist]

All those negative hitting stats and positive pitching stats just make an even stronger case for the UNDER. For the past 5-6 weeks, no one in MLB has been better than Vasquez.

 

[AM2kidz]

Hey Ndnfan..... Love the Dodgers pick... I'm allready on that one with the Mets/Arizona in a 3 teamer M/L...
I've looked at the Florida game also and although it seems to be a very balanced game I feel like Dempster will pitch well tonight and get the win... Very good value at +145... My recommendations are to just to keep the plays small until we can see how each team reacts to the emotional crisis that has taken place.. Good luck to all..

AM2kidz...

 

[Never Caught Up]

This has been a really good thread . . . at least for me. I am now convinced that laying the odds on Montreal would not be a good move. Even if they win I am glad you guys talked me out of it.

My short list on sides is now down to PHI and LOS unless a steam play is generated later in the day.

I think I will parlay the two. I like to parlay two teams like that when the starts are three hours apart. If PHI wins I can do a small hedge on SGD +1.5 runs if I choose and perhaps win them both.

Thinking cap is still on.