Monday September 17th 2007
yesterday: 8-1 +5.81
September: 109-105 +6.98
ml 46-40 -1.66
rl 3-5 -3.88
totals 38-22 +11.55
parlays & IFs 22-38 +0.97
system picks still a pathetic 24-27 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-1 yesterday; 39-18 in September (68%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 63% (Smoltz-Kim)
Atl 53 (Carlyle-Seddon)
Wash 53 (+102)+3
Cubs 63 (-135)+5
mil 70 (-140)+11 RL 56 (+120)+10
phil 62 (Kendrick-Thompson)
phil 64 (Kendrick-Reyes)
Ariz 69 (-215)even RL 54 (+105)+5
Sd 58 (-163)-4
det 56 (+123)+11
bost 58 (-125)+2
Nyy 74 (-230)+4 RL 60 (-118)+5
Min 51 (-130)-6
cws 54 (-115)even
Oak 60 (-155)-1
Laa 70 (-235)-1 RL 55 (-112)+2
system totals
det@Clev ov10 67% (+102)+17
Ended a 3 day losing streak so I'm happy about that. Took a bit of punishment in the NFL so I'm not as thrilled as I was last Sunday. Should concentrate on bases for the next couple of weeks as it's too early in the NFL and there should be some good plays available for the remaining bases with a few teams calling it quits, other non-contenders that look to finish the year strong, and some fairly interesting playoff races as well. I figure if I keep paying attention for the next couple of weeks then it should pay off.
Brewers and Tigers are system picks for Monday. Astrosticks look like they might make a game of it, going by their last series, and especially Sunday's game, but Gallardo has shut them down before and looks like a hot commodity; Albers has had the odd good start over his past half-dozen but the Brew-Crew hit him well in previous meetings, including recently on September 5th, and I suspect that an over/under on his homers allowed for this contest should be about 2 or 2.5 (he's allowed 17 over 96 innings including 3 over his past 9, with the Brewers getting 2 over the 3 innings that they saw him). Tigers should take this one with any kind of decent game from Rogers; I like the Tigers for a series play, certainly at anything even money or better.
Other spots with value maybe include either the D'Backs or Yankees on the runlines, and the Cubs on the moneyline. Webb's done good work against the Giants before and the G-men appear to be one of those teams calling it quits?at least at the plate?course, they've been trash with the sticks all season so it's kind of hard to tell; Correia has been pretty solid as a starter and the system call is 61% under the 8?which just got switched to a 7.5 at one of my books?oh, well?gonna likely take it easy until Tuesday, where it looks like I may be playing a lot of dogs (or near even-money plays?can't really tell without seeing the lines). Yankees should pound Cabrera as everyone else has been doing, though their offensive numbers have been down lately?think that might change back home for this series vs the Orioles?Yanks runline will play for me for Monday and Tuesday, at least. Cubs have a good shot as Reds have trouble with lefties (11-17 on the road to L).
I don't think I'll play the listed total as I'm a Tigers backer and will be happy with that. Might play the Tigers team total over but I'll have to have a better look at TTs and see what's doing.
Will post picks and smoke my sacred stash.
The Seahawks did choke and cost me cash.
GL
yesterday: 8-1 +5.81
September: 109-105 +6.98
ml 46-40 -1.66
rl 3-5 -3.88
totals 38-22 +11.55
parlays & IFs 22-38 +0.97
system picks still a pathetic 24-27 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-1 yesterday; 39-18 in September (68%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Atl 63% (Smoltz-Kim)
Atl 53 (Carlyle-Seddon)
Wash 53 (+102)+3
Cubs 63 (-135)+5
mil 70 (-140)+11 RL 56 (+120)+10
phil 62 (Kendrick-Thompson)
phil 64 (Kendrick-Reyes)
Ariz 69 (-215)even RL 54 (+105)+5
Sd 58 (-163)-4
det 56 (+123)+11
bost 58 (-125)+2
Nyy 74 (-230)+4 RL 60 (-118)+5
Min 51 (-130)-6
cws 54 (-115)even
Oak 60 (-155)-1
Laa 70 (-235)-1 RL 55 (-112)+2
system totals
det@Clev ov10 67% (+102)+17
Ended a 3 day losing streak so I'm happy about that. Took a bit of punishment in the NFL so I'm not as thrilled as I was last Sunday. Should concentrate on bases for the next couple of weeks as it's too early in the NFL and there should be some good plays available for the remaining bases with a few teams calling it quits, other non-contenders that look to finish the year strong, and some fairly interesting playoff races as well. I figure if I keep paying attention for the next couple of weeks then it should pay off.
Brewers and Tigers are system picks for Monday. Astrosticks look like they might make a game of it, going by their last series, and especially Sunday's game, but Gallardo has shut them down before and looks like a hot commodity; Albers has had the odd good start over his past half-dozen but the Brew-Crew hit him well in previous meetings, including recently on September 5th, and I suspect that an over/under on his homers allowed for this contest should be about 2 or 2.5 (he's allowed 17 over 96 innings including 3 over his past 9, with the Brewers getting 2 over the 3 innings that they saw him). Tigers should take this one with any kind of decent game from Rogers; I like the Tigers for a series play, certainly at anything even money or better.
Other spots with value maybe include either the D'Backs or Yankees on the runlines, and the Cubs on the moneyline. Webb's done good work against the Giants before and the G-men appear to be one of those teams calling it quits?at least at the plate?course, they've been trash with the sticks all season so it's kind of hard to tell; Correia has been pretty solid as a starter and the system call is 61% under the 8?which just got switched to a 7.5 at one of my books?oh, well?gonna likely take it easy until Tuesday, where it looks like I may be playing a lot of dogs (or near even-money plays?can't really tell without seeing the lines). Yankees should pound Cabrera as everyone else has been doing, though their offensive numbers have been down lately?think that might change back home for this series vs the Orioles?Yanks runline will play for me for Monday and Tuesday, at least. Cubs have a good shot as Reds have trouble with lefties (11-17 on the road to L).
I don't think I'll play the listed total as I'm a Tigers backer and will be happy with that. Might play the Tigers team total over but I'll have to have a better look at TTs and see what's doing.
Will post picks and smoke my sacred stash.
The Seahawks did choke and cost me cash.
GL
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