Monday September 24th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday September 24th 2007

yesterday: 5-6 +3.27
September: 154-149 +22.05
ml 61-53 +4.75
rl 6-7 +0.22
totals 48-29 +16.59
parlays & IFs 39-60 +0.49
system picks 1-1 yesterday (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-0 yesterday; 51-27 in September (65%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 65% (-210)-3
stl 55 (+132)+11
sd 60 (-130)+3
Det 64 (-148)+4
tor 51 (+165)+13 +1.5 66 (-121)+11
kc 62 (-104)+11
laa 57 (Santana-Galarraga)

system totals

sd@Sf un8 65% (-125)+9 --ump N/A
tor@Nyy un9.5 70 (-110)+17 --Barrett, if him, is a bit of an UNDER-ump


Aren't Sunday's great? Stuck to my best plays in the NFL instead of trying most of the board, like I did last week. Paid off well. The bonus money from the baseball is just that. I'm kind of sad that there's only a week left in the regular season.

Cardinals, Blue Jays and Royals are system picks for Monday. Cards with a scary lineup currently but get a large edge at SP with Wainwright over Bush; bullpen edge Cards, too. Jays lineup seems to be less potent with V-Dub now missing, but he wasn't having his most productive season anyway and the Jays are pretty good against lefties even without him; certainly worth a shot at the price with an incredibly hot Burnett throwing. Meche has good numbers against the Royals and is finishing the season pretty strong; Cabrera looks like crap, recently, and the O's bullpen is one of the worst in the bigs; neither club hitting much currently. Tigers are almost a system pick, Robertson has good numbers vs the Twins, and I don't much care for Silva so I'm trying a piece of the Tigers, again, Monday.

Jays-Yanks game under looks real good, only helped by ump Ted Barrett if they keep the rotation. The other total I might pass on as I'll be backing the Padres, plus the Padres are pretty potent against lefties, and they're much better on the road offensively. Young hasn't been his dominant self either, not making the under attractive, but I believe that he'll have enough to beat the Giants on Monday.

Will post all plays.
Sunday's pays.

GL

 

[bryanz]

sd just lost 3 st to all left handers against Colo.... francis / redman/morales/ ........they are hitting 2.12 L 10 against Lefty....... they have been good on the road against left handers this yr but...... redman beat them on short rest..... I have gone against them the Last 2 days, I will again monday...... think they are feeling the pressure...... fade them until they win....

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

GL on your play, bryanz

I'm trying some of the Padres as I'm a sucker for Young, though he hasn't been the dominating pitcher he was earlier in the season (I've had him rated as high as a 92 but I've currently got him at an 80...have Zito currently at an 81). Padres are the much better team against lefties (Padres OPS near .780 while Giants is near .700). Rockies series didn't surprise me, and I had the Rockies over the past two days, but I don't think that the Giants lineup is much competition right now, even against a pretty sorry group of Padres bats. Padres much prefer hitting on the road (OPS goes up 90 points). I just think that Young has been good enough, lately, that he can handle the Giants bats for 6 or 7 innings, and then we've got a bullpen edge to the Padres, too, by my ratings (Padres 79, Giants 70).
The price is reasonable, for Young, so I'm trying the visitor.

'bout to post.
Need some shut-eye as I've got an appointment tomorrow...2:30 pm...that's early for me.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

cardinals +132 0.75/1
Padres -130 1.95/1.5
Tigers -148 2.22/1.5
blue jays +165 1/1.65
blue jays +1.5 -121 1.21/1
royals -104 1.56/1.5

tor-Nyy un9.5 -110 3.3/3


Would like to go deeper into that Jays side but this IS the Yankees we're talking about so I'm going to take it easy. Last +1.5 I hit as my team lost by a run so giving that another shot. Tigers, Padres and Royals would be nice late while an early under will prime me nicely to tackle Tuesday's lines; should be open by the time they finish at Yankee Stadium. Had a killer week in the NFL and I've got a piece of the Saints on Monday, just at -3 because this doesn't seem like a team to be trusted, but I thought that about the Panthers and still easily laid the 3.5 for a nice hit there. Playing MNF small.

Mets (Bergmann-Glavine) and Red Sox (Schilling-Gaudin) will be the obvious high calls for Tuesday. I'll have two other surprise high calls for Tuesday if the pitching matchups come out right, ones that should have very reasonable lines, and a couple of nice doggy calls, at least I'm expecting doggedness due do the delerium of my dementia. Likely 4-6 system totals coming for Tuesday, too.

Let's eat book this final week, shall we?
GL

 

[peteyboy]

head's up... litsch is pitching for burnett.

 

[DoMyDermBest]

thanks, gltu

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early word on Tuesday...

Reds, Rockies and Mariners will be system picks for tomorrow. Some value with the Pirates as well.

Astros Paulino hasn't showed much and Reds top pitching prospect Bailey may be ready for a stay in the big leagues; he was pretty solid, though short, in hit last outting. Reds lineup a bit funky, to end the season, but they still have a few bats in the lineup that can hit.

Rockies worth a shot as they're on fire, Penny is rather cold and the Rox have beaten him already this year, while the kid Jimenez has kept the Rox in all games vs the Dodgers. Will be a tough go against Penny but I'm actually looking at a call of 51% on the Rockies so there seems to be value up near +150, like it is.

Mariners looks like maybe the best of the three as Hernandez will keep his team in the game while the Mariners are 15-4 at home to lefties (.789). Laffey hasn't looked too hot so far in the bigs so I think that the M's can handle him. Indians, in the meanwhile, are preparing for the playoffs and, with any luck, might sit one or two key bats for this one...even without that I like the M's; Indians OPS vs R has dropped each of the last couple of months and is now down near .760 while the M's vs L is near .800; Indians OPS on the road is about 50 point lower than at home and they're only 26-26 on the road to righties; Indians last 10 vs R hitting .251 while M's last 10 vs L hitting .289; M's game #1 of a series is their best at 31-22 (.585).

In Pittsburgh, Snell has good numbers vs the D'Backs, Davis is a bit cold these days, and the Pirates hit better againt lefties than righties this season. I think this one's worth a shot near even money.

Mets, Dodgers and Giants games will all be system unders. I'm trying the first and third but don't know about Dodger Stadium as I'm backing the Rockies, Penny hasn't been sharp, the total is tremendously low (7.5), and I'm actually conisdering playing the Rockies over 3.5 for +100...they should have killer Holliday back in the lineup and they've been producing, for the most part (save v Peavy but excusable) even without him.

Jeez...I might just cut and paste this into my Tuesday post.

That's the word.
I also like the Jays but don't want to go more than -150 on that one, and the only line I can currently get is -165. Burres has looked great over his past 2 starts so I might consider the under; Jays kind of mashing lefties but sure didn't when they faced Burres about 10 days ago.

Have the numbers up between 10-11, most likely, but this is the heads up for tomorrow so there shouldn't be any suprises.

Enjoy the games.