monday totals >>>

[loophole]

hopefully we got things turned around yesterday. today i like the total in the early game:


phi/chi over 8-: usually like to wait for the ump but won't have a chance to do that today so going to risk it. cubbies have been going under at home of late and person tends to pitch well against them but everything else i see seems to indicate an over. philly is 24-8 to the over on the road against righties and is over 10-2-2 their last 14. wood has gone over his last 6 at home, which is reflected in his 4.60 home era and 6.27 era during the day. person 10-5 over for the year and carries a 5.36 road era. both pitchers tend to walk a fair number of batters, and person also tends to give up a lot of homers on the road, 7 in 40.1 innings. wind is blowing out to right at wrigley today, so sosa and mcgriff should be taking fair aim. also 70% chance of rain today leads us to today's curious stat, which has the cubbies 7-0 to the over the last five seasons with the wind blowing out to right during inclement weather. you tell me what that means.


gl today.

 

[gsp]

loop, the wind is blowing right to left which will hurt left handed batters but help right hander batters. You can always tell if the wind is blowing out because the line will be 10 or more. Good luck today.

 

[ndnfan]

Nice call loophole.....Looks like someone's starting to heat up :toast:

 

[loophole]

thanks for the update on the wind at wrigley, gsp. still made the play despite the bad forecast and the bad draw on ump with demuth, as capping was based mostly on pitching form and philly's road record. two more plays for tonight, and beware as tonight for the first time this season my picks exactly coincide with ie's so expecting a real twilight-zone kind of evening:


la/sd over 7-: if anyone knows what's wrong with perez, let me know because something's clearly up. after a gangbuster start, his last four games have produced 23.1 innings pitched, 33 hits, 20 er's and 5 hr's. he has complained about being overworked but i suspect he's just in unfamiliar territory and a little dead-armed. this is only his fourth season and he's already thrown 139 innings. the most he's pitched in any previous full season was 95 innings, so it looks like he may fade in the dog days. don't think anyone expects lawrence to duplicate the complete game shutout he threw at the dodgers five days ago in la. this will be his fourth start against the didgers and second within a week so hopefully they'll have some kind of game plan together. lawrence has been more prone to the long ball at home, allowing 7 hr's in 40 innings.


stl/sf over 8-: this is the play i most expected to see from ie as it's right up his alley. hernandez has a history of blowing up after accumulating high pitch counts; heck, he's done it repeatedly this year and tonight he's ripe. the meat of the cardinal order has hit livan well when he's in form so i expect them to get to him tonight. simontacchi should give up enough to carry his share. cards bats have come alive a little on the road of late, they're over in the last 4 on the road and 15-8 to the over this year as road dogs. fwiw, i'll probably be on the cardinals also.


good luck tonight to all.

 

[loophole]

thanks, pete. i think i'm gonna give your mets over play a ride also as i like the way the mets have been swinging the bat lately. do wan to see who the ump will be before i decide on that one. good luck tonight on your play.

 

[IE]

quotes from around the web,

......good luck tonight loophole.



"
Less than 24 hours after saying he wanted to "skip one or two starts" to rest his arm, Dodgers starting pitcher Odalis Perez said he does not intend to miss his turn in the rotation at any point.
The Padres have an off day Thursday between the San Diego and San Francisco series and another day off July 29 between the San Francisco and Cincinnati series. Still, one can't help but think that Perez is being foolish. Perez has thrown a team-high 139 1/3 innings, the first time in his career he has thrown more than 100 innings in a season. He also had reconstructive elbow surgery in 2000."


la daily news....

On second thought: Less than 24 hours after saying he wanted to "skip one or two starts" to rest his arm, Dodgers starting pitcher Odalis Perez said he does not intend to miss his turn in the rotation at any point.

"I thought about it more, and I don't think I will need to," Perez said. "We have an off day (Thursday) between the San Diego series and the San Francisco series and a day off (July 29) between the San Francisco series and the Cincinnati series, so that should be enough."

Perez said he discussed his change of heart with Tracy and pitching coach Jim Colborn. Perez has thrown a team-high 139 1/3 innings, the first time in his career he has thrown more than 100 innings in a season. He had reconstructive elbow surgery in 2000.

 

[ndnfan]

Thanks loophole.

Some info on Perez, who like you said is probably a little dead-armed. Even Perez is thinking this:

Jul. 22: A day after saying he wanted "to skip one or two starts" to rest his arm, Perez said he changed his mind and plans to pitch his next scheduled start, according to the Los Angeles Daily News. "I thought about it more, and I don't think I will need to," Perez said. "We have an off day (Thursday) between the San Diego series and the San Francisco series and a day off (July 29) between the San Francisco series and the Cincinnati series, so that should be enough.

Perez had elbow surgery in 2000 and had never thrown more than 100 innings in the majors before this year. In his past four starts, he has gone 1-3 while allowing 20 runs in 23.1 innings (7.79 ERA).

Don't think I'd wanna be on the Dodgers today, and you probably are right on with the OVER, but Lawrence scares me abit.

Check your stuff again, I have Lawrence only giving up 3 home runs at home this season in 72.1 innings while also inducing 20 double play balls this season overall.

Heck, the Pads might score close to this number themselves..

Good luck to you.

 

[ndnfan]

Whoops....IE beat me to it.

Hey IE....congrats on winning the Carib contest also :thumb:

 

[loophole]

my bust ndnfan, the home run numbers for lawrence i posted are his night numbers, not home numbers. thanks for the heads up.