that gascan Nick Martinez, a huge flyball pitcher, now has to throw at U.S. Cellular Field tonight! Ouch! Will hurt as much as my raft of losing parlays yesterday, ouch!
Chicago White Sox -137
Los Angeles Dodgers -124
Under 7 (-120) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
1 unit bet wins 4.73
Let's go get'em today, show no mercy! <a href="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php" title="Smiley"><img src="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-sport036.gif" alt="Smiley" border="0" /></a>
2014 parlay record: 8-43, +30.22 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th..
ripped and cut and pasted from the internets:
Steve Popper@StevePopper
Joba. Words can't do it justice:
The Texas Rangers travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox on Monday night. Texas is 43-67 overall this year while the Chicago White Sox are now 54-57 overall this season. Texas is 29-51 this year when playing at night. Texas is 1-7 this year when plyaing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Texas is allowing 6.3 runs per game their past seven games overall. Chicago White Sox are scoring 6.6 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of .346. Nick Martinez is 1-7 with a 5.08 ERA in all games this year, 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA in all starts this season and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Martinez has more walks (35) than strikeouts (34) overall this year. Chicago White Sox are 5-1 at home vs Texas the past 3 years.
Tampa vs. Oakland
Play: Under 7
Love when teams go on the road off a loss, especially to the west coast. The Rays fit the mold showing off 7-5 home loss to the Angels. The A's looked a little flat yesterday in a 4-2 home loss to Kansas City. TB uses RHP Cobb who has been electric in the month of July with a 5-0 record in the previous 6 trips to the bump. He has a 2.34 ERA vs. Oakland. RHP Samardzija, the former Chicago Cub, is 2-1 (3.19) with a monster 0.82 WHIP since coming to the first place A's. The series has gone UNDER at a 4-0-1 clip. With RHP Cobb hurling TB has gone UNDER 5-of-6 with 5 days of rest. Stay UNDER tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers -125
The Dodgers are showing excellent value at home with Zach Greinke on the mound. Greinke is 6-1 with a dominant 2.52 ERA and 0.972 WHIP over 9 home starts this season and comes in off two brilliant outings. Greinke allowed just 4 hits with 10 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings in a win at San Francisco on 7/25 and came back and held the Braves to just 1 run on 5 hits with 13 strikeouts in 8 innings of another Dodgers victory.
It's not just this season that Greinke has dominant at home. He's 20-4 in his last 24 home starts overall. He's 10-1 in his last 11 home starts against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts with a total set at 6.5 or lower.
The Angels are getting a ton of respect due to their record and having Garrett Richards on the mound, is 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.039 WHIP Over 22 starts in 2014. However, the Angels are just 1-5 in Richards' last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Any team with a starting pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings (Greinke), with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games are 331-247 over the last 5 season. That's a solid 57% system.
Rays / A's Under 7
I love the value we are getting on the UNDER in today's matchup between Tampa Bay and Oakland. Both teams are sending out top level starters that point to a pitcher's duel. The Rays will be starting Alex Cobb, who is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.128 WHIP over 8 road starts and a red-hot 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.822 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The A's will counter with Jeff Samardzija, who has been as good as advertised since coming over from the Cubs. In his 5 starts with Oakland, Samardzija has a dominant 0.82 WHIP and opposing hitters have managed a mere .203 average against him.
Key Trends - UNDER is 16-5 in Rays last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 8-2 in Rays last 10 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 6-2-1 in Athletics last 9 during game 1 of a series and 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
System - Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (TAMPA BAY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season.This system is 142-79 (64%) since 1997.
Even without knowledge of tonight?s home plate umpire at this time, compelled to play the percentages and grab a piece of under 7. Tampa Bay?s starter Alex Cobb has been peaking over his past six outings going 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA. Manager Joe Maddon described Cobb?s changeup during this span as ?pretty spectacular? and Cobb has used it very successfully all season as an out pitch. He?s racked up 22 Ks in his last two starts and 39 over his last 37.1 IP with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Cobb has also thrown extremely well against Oakland the last three seasons posting a 3-1 mark and 1.42 ERA against them including 6.2 innings of shutout ball earlier this season. With the A?s offense struggling a bit right now minus the bats of traded Yoenis Cespedes and injured Coco Crisp (could return during this series), Cobb figures to perform well in this spot. The Rays offense however should find things difficult tonight versus Jeff Samardzija who has posted a 0.82 WHIP and .203 opponents BAA in his five starts since joining Oakland. Tampa?s unfamiliarity with Samardzija is likely to be an advantage for the righty as well. Bullpens are in good shape here so a strong number of indicators point toward a low scoring affair.
Southern California has produced as much baseball talent as perhaps anywhere else in the domestic United States and Monday night offers up a meeting between two of its finest pro franchises when the Angels of Anaheim visit Dodger Stadium for what will be the opener a four game series set to run through Thursday.
The Angels took two of three in Tampa following a series loss to Baltimore. They return to the west coast after that six game road trip and will look to defeat a Dodgers team which just dropped two of three to the lowly Cubs. They had been riding a six game win streak prior to that and will try to get back on track behind the work of Zack Greinke.
The 30 year old has been incredible with L.A. in the NL this season, but he did spend his first seven seasons in the AL and made 13 starts for these Angels back in 2012. Greinke has historically been a strong second half pitcher and has started this post All-Star portion to the year off quite hot despite getting limited run support in several outings.
Greinke has won his previous three home starts and is 7-2 at home on the year. That being said, this LAA lineup seemed to get on track with a serious outburst against Jake Odorizzi and the Rays on Sunday and they have some bats who will like this match-up. Albert Pujols and David Freese are both 4-14 against Greinke, while Erick Aybar (3-8), Chris Ianetta (2-3) and Mike Trout (2-3) have also had success with smaller sample sizes.
It's important to note the likely lineup changes LAA will have to deal with in playing at a National League venue, however. The loss of the DH spot forces at least one bat to the bench, but the Angels are fortunate in the sense that they have most of their stud options placed into fielding roles on a day to day basis anyway. This club is 7-4 SU during inter-league play while having also generated a 7-4 "over" record during that sample size to boot.
Opposing Greinke will be fourth year righty Garrett Richards. A Riverside, CA native, Richards has come in and made himself feel right at home in LA this season, posting a WHIP of 1.04 and an ERA below three through 22 starts during 2014. After the Angels won every single one of his June starts, they won the first three in July before enduring three straight losses as they head into this game tonight.
Richards and the Angels are positioned as +120 dogs coming into tonight and are commanding roughly 40-45% of the betting action to this point in the day. The two biggest things for me concerning this game are as follows: Greinke?s toughness at home and Richards? potential to deteriorate in the second half of this year.
Richards has never pitched more than 145 IP in any of his three prior years at the Major League level. He is already at 144 right now and his last two starts indicate a down trend without questions. While the offenses for Baltimore and Detroit are certainly good, Richards gave up about a hit an inning while surrendering a total of eight earned runs during his combined 13 IP between both starts.
What that tells me is that Richards could be due for a decline and the likelihood that it continues to fester into this start, which comes against one of the best offenses in the NL, it legitimate. Don?t get me wrong, the Oklahoma product is a fantastically talented arm with three devastating and primary pitches.
Still, I look for the Dodgers to get things going first in this series and for them to defend their home turf tonight. Right now, they sit as favorites at right around -125/130. Given their opponent and the number itself, that is not a position I?m willing to bit into.
This total opened at 6.5 and, with over 70% of the money coming in the under, it has dropped to six on some books. Greinke?s ability to control things at home is the primary factor in this movement asmany look for another low scoring battle so reminiscent of plenty a home start for him this season. I, however, look for the over to hold value here.
Richards is key to this game and his health and longevity in 2014 will be critical to the Angels? ability to go up against other, strong rotations in the playoff rounds as well. Yes, the pitchers tonight, especially on paper, have the ability to be dominant. But these two offenses are quite strong and between Richards? potential for regression and the Angels? offensive abilities to boot, the over at 6/6.5 has more than enough potential to warrant a position.
Chicago White Sox -137
Los Angeles Dodgers -124
Under 7 (-120) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
1 unit bet wins 4.73
Let's go get'em today, show no mercy! <a href="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php" title="Smiley"><img src="http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-sport036.gif" alt="Smiley" border="0" /></a>
2014 parlay record: 8-43, +30.22 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th..
ripped and cut and pasted from the internets:
Steve Popper@StevePopper
Joba. Words can't do it justice:
The Texas Rangers travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox on Monday night. Texas is 43-67 overall this year while the Chicago White Sox are now 54-57 overall this season. Texas is 29-51 this year when playing at night. Texas is 1-7 this year when plyaing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Texas is allowing 6.3 runs per game their past seven games overall. Chicago White Sox are scoring 6.6 runs per game their past seven games overall where they have a team batting average of .346. Nick Martinez is 1-7 with a 5.08 ERA in all games this year, 1-6 with a 5.83 ERA in all starts this season and 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA his last 3 starts. Martinez has more walks (35) than strikeouts (34) overall this year. Chicago White Sox are 5-1 at home vs Texas the past 3 years.
Tampa vs. Oakland
Play: Under 7
Love when teams go on the road off a loss, especially to the west coast. The Rays fit the mold showing off 7-5 home loss to the Angels. The A's looked a little flat yesterday in a 4-2 home loss to Kansas City. TB uses RHP Cobb who has been electric in the month of July with a 5-0 record in the previous 6 trips to the bump. He has a 2.34 ERA vs. Oakland. RHP Samardzija, the former Chicago Cub, is 2-1 (3.19) with a monster 0.82 WHIP since coming to the first place A's. The series has gone UNDER at a 4-0-1 clip. With RHP Cobb hurling TB has gone UNDER 5-of-6 with 5 days of rest. Stay UNDER tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers -125
The Dodgers are showing excellent value at home with Zach Greinke on the mound. Greinke is 6-1 with a dominant 2.52 ERA and 0.972 WHIP over 9 home starts this season and comes in off two brilliant outings. Greinke allowed just 4 hits with 10 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings in a win at San Francisco on 7/25 and came back and held the Braves to just 1 run on 5 hits with 13 strikeouts in 8 innings of another Dodgers victory.
It's not just this season that Greinke has dominant at home. He's 20-4 in his last 24 home starts overall. He's 10-1 in his last 11 home starts against a team with a winning record and 7-0 in his last 7 home starts with a total set at 6.5 or lower.
The Angels are getting a ton of respect due to their record and having Garrett Richards on the mound, is 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.039 WHIP Over 22 starts in 2014. However, the Angels are just 1-5 in Richards' last 6 starts as a road underdog.
Any team with a starting pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings (Greinke), with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games are 331-247 over the last 5 season. That's a solid 57% system.
Rays / A's Under 7
I love the value we are getting on the UNDER in today's matchup between Tampa Bay and Oakland. Both teams are sending out top level starters that point to a pitcher's duel. The Rays will be starting Alex Cobb, who is 6-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.128 WHIP over 8 road starts and a red-hot 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.822 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The A's will counter with Jeff Samardzija, who has been as good as advertised since coming over from the Cubs. In his 5 starts with Oakland, Samardzija has a dominant 0.82 WHIP and opposing hitters have managed a mere .203 average against him.
Key Trends - UNDER is 16-5 in Rays last 21 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 8-2 in Rays last 10 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, 6-2-1 in Athletics last 9 during game 1 of a series and 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
System - Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (TAMPA BAY) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better on the season.This system is 142-79 (64%) since 1997.
Even without knowledge of tonight?s home plate umpire at this time, compelled to play the percentages and grab a piece of under 7. Tampa Bay?s starter Alex Cobb has been peaking over his past six outings going 5-0 with a 2.65 ERA. Manager Joe Maddon described Cobb?s changeup during this span as ?pretty spectacular? and Cobb has used it very successfully all season as an out pitch. He?s racked up 22 Ks in his last two starts and 39 over his last 37.1 IP with a 5:1 K:BB ratio. Cobb has also thrown extremely well against Oakland the last three seasons posting a 3-1 mark and 1.42 ERA against them including 6.2 innings of shutout ball earlier this season. With the A?s offense struggling a bit right now minus the bats of traded Yoenis Cespedes and injured Coco Crisp (could return during this series), Cobb figures to perform well in this spot. The Rays offense however should find things difficult tonight versus Jeff Samardzija who has posted a 0.82 WHIP and .203 opponents BAA in his five starts since joining Oakland. Tampa?s unfamiliarity with Samardzija is likely to be an advantage for the righty as well. Bullpens are in good shape here so a strong number of indicators point toward a low scoring affair.
Southern California has produced as much baseball talent as perhaps anywhere else in the domestic United States and Monday night offers up a meeting between two of its finest pro franchises when the Angels of Anaheim visit Dodger Stadium for what will be the opener a four game series set to run through Thursday.
The Angels took two of three in Tampa following a series loss to Baltimore. They return to the west coast after that six game road trip and will look to defeat a Dodgers team which just dropped two of three to the lowly Cubs. They had been riding a six game win streak prior to that and will try to get back on track behind the work of Zack Greinke.
The 30 year old has been incredible with L.A. in the NL this season, but he did spend his first seven seasons in the AL and made 13 starts for these Angels back in 2012. Greinke has historically been a strong second half pitcher and has started this post All-Star portion to the year off quite hot despite getting limited run support in several outings.
Greinke has won his previous three home starts and is 7-2 at home on the year. That being said, this LAA lineup seemed to get on track with a serious outburst against Jake Odorizzi and the Rays on Sunday and they have some bats who will like this match-up. Albert Pujols and David Freese are both 4-14 against Greinke, while Erick Aybar (3-8), Chris Ianetta (2-3) and Mike Trout (2-3) have also had success with smaller sample sizes.
It's important to note the likely lineup changes LAA will have to deal with in playing at a National League venue, however. The loss of the DH spot forces at least one bat to the bench, but the Angels are fortunate in the sense that they have most of their stud options placed into fielding roles on a day to day basis anyway. This club is 7-4 SU during inter-league play while having also generated a 7-4 "over" record during that sample size to boot.
Opposing Greinke will be fourth year righty Garrett Richards. A Riverside, CA native, Richards has come in and made himself feel right at home in LA this season, posting a WHIP of 1.04 and an ERA below three through 22 starts during 2014. After the Angels won every single one of his June starts, they won the first three in July before enduring three straight losses as they head into this game tonight.
Richards and the Angels are positioned as +120 dogs coming into tonight and are commanding roughly 40-45% of the betting action to this point in the day. The two biggest things for me concerning this game are as follows: Greinke?s toughness at home and Richards? potential to deteriorate in the second half of this year.
Richards has never pitched more than 145 IP in any of his three prior years at the Major League level. He is already at 144 right now and his last two starts indicate a down trend without questions. While the offenses for Baltimore and Detroit are certainly good, Richards gave up about a hit an inning while surrendering a total of eight earned runs during his combined 13 IP between both starts.
What that tells me is that Richards could be due for a decline and the likelihood that it continues to fester into this start, which comes against one of the best offenses in the NL, it legitimate. Don?t get me wrong, the Oklahoma product is a fantastically talented arm with three devastating and primary pitches.
Still, I look for the Dodgers to get things going first in this series and for them to defend their home turf tonight. Right now, they sit as favorites at right around -125/130. Given their opponent and the number itself, that is not a position I?m willing to bit into.
This total opened at 6.5 and, with over 70% of the money coming in the under, it has dropped to six on some books. Greinke?s ability to control things at home is the primary factor in this movement asmany look for another low scoring battle so reminiscent of plenty a home start for him this season. I, however, look for the over to hold value here.
Richards is key to this game and his health and longevity in 2014 will be critical to the Angels? ability to go up against other, strong rotations in the playoff rounds as well. Yes, the pitchers tonight, especially on paper, have the ability to be dominant. But these two offenses are quite strong and between Richards? potential for regression and the Angels? offensive abilities to boot, the over at 6/6.5 has more than enough potential to warrant a position.
