Washington Nationals -137
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Seattle Mariners -175
San Francisco Giants -195
1 unit bet wins 6.48
my last post damn 5-teamer missed by 1..Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-60, +28.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
WA Nats lineup tonight:
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
It's no surprise to see Ortiz out of the lineup tonight. He's taken a pitch to the elbow and a foul ball to the ankle/foot in the last few days, and while he soldiered on through the first, there's really no need to be putting him back out there after a second incident in such a short period of time.
With Ortiz out of the lineup, the Red Sox will give Allen Craig some time at first base, moving Mike Napoli (who has dealt with back issues in recent weeks) a day out of the field. Notably, even with Craig at first, Yoenis Cespedes will remain in left with Daniel Nava taking over in right, which would seem to make it clear that John Farrell's odd defensive arrangements are primarily for the former Athletics' benefit.
With the Red Sox on an eight-game slide, and Clay Buchholz having just suffered another implosion after a pair of positive starts, it's hard to have much hope that anything will be different tonight. But if you're looking for silver linings and reasons to hope (not respectively), the Blue Jays are on a 3-7 slump themselves, and the Red Sox are getting back into a conversation for a top-3 draft pick. So we've got that going for us.
----
Forget what the Rockies have done at home over their past nine games (winning six) because it does not matter. When this team takes the road a metamorphosis occurs that turns them into the Bad News Bears. Away from Coors, Colorado is hitting just .236 with just 18 wins in 62 games. Without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup, Colorado is hitting .192 on the road. Back in June, the Rockies came in here and swept the Giants, which incredibly just happens to be 1/6 of their road wins this season. Don?t expect lightning to strike twice. Jake Peavy gets this start for the Giants. Peavy has earned the win in each of his last two starts, after going 0-12 over his previous 18 starts. Since joining the Giants he has made five starts and he?s getting sharper. Peavy has posted a 2.75 ERA over his past three starts. At AT&T Park, he?s 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and the Giants have won his last two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-1.
Despite losing two of three in Washington over the weekend, the Giants still scored 18 runs against a very good staff, which includes three reputable starters (Zimmerman, Strasburg and Fister). The Giants have scored five runs or more in seven of their past 10 games and lead the majors over that span with a .308 batting average. They?ll now get a crack at Tyler Matzek. Matzek has started 13 games for the Rockies since his call-up in mid-June. Over 77 innings, he was an ugly BB/K split of 30/53. Over his last 29 innings, his BB/K split is 15/21. Matzek has always had control problems, even in the minors, where his best walk rate since 2009 was 4.2 BB/9. He has a WHIP of 1.52 and a BAA of .289 and it?s not due to Coors Field either. On the road, Matzek has allowed 51 hits in 39 innings for an oppBA of .323. He?s 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.23, which is right in line with his road xERA of 5.89. Matzek is one of 14 starting pitchers that the Rockies have used this season and if they weren?t in such dire straits, Matzek would be pitching in the minors, where he belongs. Once again, you can expect the Rockies to turn into pumpkins because that?s who they are as soon as they leave Denver.
J.A. Happ is an incredibly hard pitcher to get a read on. He is the definition of all or nothing, as six of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, while the other six have all resulted in disaster. Despite being 0-3 over his last four starts, a 3.62 xERA and 8.1 K?s/9 in that time shows that he is capable of much more. Happ has been very decent at home with a 4-4 record to go along with a 3.26 ERA. He?ll face a Red Sox offense that is sputtering in August, where they have a .227 BA and .623 OPS. That said, this one is more about fading Clay Buchholz in this extreme hitters park.
The Jays scored just one time yesterday against Chris Archer of the Rays but they just missed hitting several balls out and when they weren?t striking out they were making solid contact. With Edwin Encarnaci?n and Adam Lind back, Toronto?s first six batters look like this: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Lind, Encarnaci?n and Dioner Navarro. Nobody in that group is hitting under .273 and both Cabrera and Lind are hitting well above .300. Reyes is hitting .365 in August. Current Jays have seen Clay Buchholz plenty, with 78 hits in 276 career AB?s against him (.276). That?s when Buchholz was pitching well. The Red Sox have lost Buchholz?s last six starts and the lowest output by the opposition over that stretch was five runs. One of those defeats was by a score of 14-1 to these Blue Jays less than a month ago in Boston. Buchholz was walked 15 batters over his past 30 innings. He has an ERA of 5.94 and a disturbing 1.55 WHIP in 23 appearances, 19 of those as a starter. Of those 19 starts, Buchholz has seven of the pure quality variety. After facing the Rays starters over the weekend, the Jays take a huge step down in class here. Toronto?s offense is on the verge of a serious explosion and we?re suggesting it happens in this series.
'Nats faves in Phillie'
The meeting between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park Monday features two teams at opposite ends of the scale trying to best each other. According to the current betting odds, Nationals are -$1.50 road favorite. That nod by the oddsmaker is due to the overall success Nationals have had against Phillies (8-3) and in an even larger part, the success of the Washington starter along with the current slump of the Philadelphia hurler. Nationals send one of the team's unsung pitchers to the mound in Tanner Roark who is 12-7 on the campaign with a 2.80 ERA and 6-2 on the road with a 3.29 ERA.
Nationals have thrives w/Roark lately posting a 7-1 record with the righty allowing a single run or less in six of the eight starts. On the other mound, Phillies counter with A.J Burnett carrying a 6-14 record, 4.42 ERA. Burnett is currently saddled with a 7 game winless streak (0-7 TSR) and has seen Phillies falter in 10 of his last 11 starts. Taking a road favorite can be a perilous road in baseball betting. But, with Washington 6-0 in their last 6 games swinging at a starter with a WHIP > 1.30, on an 18-8 stretch platting 4.85 runs/game against a losing team, Phillies 4-10 at home platting 3.0 runs/game vs a visitor with a winning % =>.550 the numbers add up well enough to conclude that Washington is the right choice.
The visiting Texas Rangers will send Miles Mikolas (1-5, 7.48) to the hill to face the Mariners for the first time in his career; note that Mikolas has only recorded two quality outings out of nine starts this season, most recently he?s off a loss to the Marlins where allowed three runs over five plus innings. The Mariners counter with Roenis Elias (9-10, 4.09 ERA) who has also struggled of late with his command, but the left-hander owns a highly respectable 2.10 ERA over his last five starts though (and note that the rookie is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts versus Texas). The Mariners continue to play strong baseball after a sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend, they won for the 14th time in 18 games Sunday, scoring an 8-6 victory at Fenway. The Rangers meanwhile continue their struggles and are just 7-23 away from home since June 17th. Seattle's starting pitchers have been dominant at Safeco Field in posting a combined 1.61 ERA during an 8-1 stretch; consider paying the reasonable price to get the red hot home side.
I'm sorry Yankees fans, but I just don't believe in your team. Yes, the Pinstripes just pulled off a 4-game sweep of the White Sox at home over the weekend. Despite this, they still have a -34 run differential for the year. I've written about this before. They are one of two teams in all of baseball (St. Louis) that has a winning record but a negative run differential. That's an unsustainable combination. To put things in perspective, a team w/ a comparable run differential to the Yanks is Minnesota (-36), who is a last place team and 14 games below .500. So generally when the Yankees lose, they lose badly. They won by three runs Sunday, but that's misleading as it was an extra inning game.
This is an ESPN game, which is "old hat" for New York. Not so much for Kansas City, who should be highly motivated to take this make-up game. Not to mention, the Royals are in a heated pennant race, still two games above Detroit in the American League Central. They are off a loss Sunday at Texas, but before that had won three in a row.
This shapes up as a great pitching matchup w/ James Shields opposing Michael Pineda. But I give the edge to the former. Shields is 3-0 w/ a 2.14 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP his L3 starts. He's gone nine consecutive starts w/out allowing more than 3 ER. Against the Yankees on June 8th, he went six innings and allowed just an unearned run in a 2-1 win. The next day's game was the rain out being made up here, so that's an edge to the Royals. Pineda, like Shields, continues to pitch well. But the team is 0-2 since he returned from the DL. Kansas City tends to always have the edge when it comes to the bullpen and they have the better team.
Toronto Blue Jays -122
Seattle Mariners -175
San Francisco Giants -195
1 unit bet wins 6.48
my last post damn 5-teamer missed by 1..Push your luck. Hard. :00hour :toast: :spotting:
2014 parlay record: 12-60, +28.71 units.....on various mixed sports....(1 unit bet each parlay)
Posted here was the first winning parlay of the year, and it was my biggest. Not long after that I didn't post for a few months (the unpredictable ends of NBA + NHL seasons, plus start of MLB, is the worst time of year for parlays), then had this small winner (only paid 1.58 as one game ppd and one total pushed) and Sunday, July 6 three-teamer, and July 14 four-teamer, July 25 4-teamer, with a push, that became a 3 teamer...then this 4 teamer July 29th...and 2-3 on bunch of smaller parlays I tried July 30th...a 3 teamer Aug 8th, and a 2 teamer Aug 9th...little 2 teamer Aug 12th...this nice 3 teamer Aug 21...
WA Nats lineup tonight:
ripped, or otherwise pilfered, cut and pasted from the internets:
It's no surprise to see Ortiz out of the lineup tonight. He's taken a pitch to the elbow and a foul ball to the ankle/foot in the last few days, and while he soldiered on through the first, there's really no need to be putting him back out there after a second incident in such a short period of time.
With Ortiz out of the lineup, the Red Sox will give Allen Craig some time at first base, moving Mike Napoli (who has dealt with back issues in recent weeks) a day out of the field. Notably, even with Craig at first, Yoenis Cespedes will remain in left with Daniel Nava taking over in right, which would seem to make it clear that John Farrell's odd defensive arrangements are primarily for the former Athletics' benefit.
With the Red Sox on an eight-game slide, and Clay Buchholz having just suffered another implosion after a pair of positive starts, it's hard to have much hope that anything will be different tonight. But if you're looking for silver linings and reasons to hope (not respectively), the Blue Jays are on a 3-7 slump themselves, and the Red Sox are getting back into a conversation for a top-3 draft pick. So we've got that going for us.
----
Forget what the Rockies have done at home over their past nine games (winning six) because it does not matter. When this team takes the road a metamorphosis occurs that turns them into the Bad News Bears. Away from Coors, Colorado is hitting just .236 with just 18 wins in 62 games. Without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup, Colorado is hitting .192 on the road. Back in June, the Rockies came in here and swept the Giants, which incredibly just happens to be 1/6 of their road wins this season. Don?t expect lightning to strike twice. Jake Peavy gets this start for the Giants. Peavy has earned the win in each of his last two starts, after going 0-12 over his previous 18 starts. Since joining the Giants he has made five starts and he?s getting sharper. Peavy has posted a 2.75 ERA over his past three starts. At AT&T Park, he?s 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and the Giants have won his last two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-1.
Despite losing two of three in Washington over the weekend, the Giants still scored 18 runs against a very good staff, which includes three reputable starters (Zimmerman, Strasburg and Fister). The Giants have scored five runs or more in seven of their past 10 games and lead the majors over that span with a .308 batting average. They?ll now get a crack at Tyler Matzek. Matzek has started 13 games for the Rockies since his call-up in mid-June. Over 77 innings, he was an ugly BB/K split of 30/53. Over his last 29 innings, his BB/K split is 15/21. Matzek has always had control problems, even in the minors, where his best walk rate since 2009 was 4.2 BB/9. He has a WHIP of 1.52 and a BAA of .289 and it?s not due to Coors Field either. On the road, Matzek has allowed 51 hits in 39 innings for an oppBA of .323. He?s 0-5 on the road with an ERA of 6.23, which is right in line with his road xERA of 5.89. Matzek is one of 14 starting pitchers that the Rockies have used this season and if they weren?t in such dire straits, Matzek would be pitching in the minors, where he belongs. Once again, you can expect the Rockies to turn into pumpkins because that?s who they are as soon as they leave Denver.
J.A. Happ is an incredibly hard pitcher to get a read on. He is the definition of all or nothing, as six of his last 12 starts have resulted in a pure quality start, while the other six have all resulted in disaster. Despite being 0-3 over his last four starts, a 3.62 xERA and 8.1 K?s/9 in that time shows that he is capable of much more. Happ has been very decent at home with a 4-4 record to go along with a 3.26 ERA. He?ll face a Red Sox offense that is sputtering in August, where they have a .227 BA and .623 OPS. That said, this one is more about fading Clay Buchholz in this extreme hitters park.
The Jays scored just one time yesterday against Chris Archer of the Rays but they just missed hitting several balls out and when they weren?t striking out they were making solid contact. With Edwin Encarnaci?n and Adam Lind back, Toronto?s first six batters look like this: Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Lind, Encarnaci?n and Dioner Navarro. Nobody in that group is hitting under .273 and both Cabrera and Lind are hitting well above .300. Reyes is hitting .365 in August. Current Jays have seen Clay Buchholz plenty, with 78 hits in 276 career AB?s against him (.276). That?s when Buchholz was pitching well. The Red Sox have lost Buchholz?s last six starts and the lowest output by the opposition over that stretch was five runs. One of those defeats was by a score of 14-1 to these Blue Jays less than a month ago in Boston. Buchholz was walked 15 batters over his past 30 innings. He has an ERA of 5.94 and a disturbing 1.55 WHIP in 23 appearances, 19 of those as a starter. Of those 19 starts, Buchholz has seven of the pure quality variety. After facing the Rays starters over the weekend, the Jays take a huge step down in class here. Toronto?s offense is on the verge of a serious explosion and we?re suggesting it happens in this series.
'Nats faves in Phillie'
The meeting between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park Monday features two teams at opposite ends of the scale trying to best each other. According to the current betting odds, Nationals are -$1.50 road favorite. That nod by the oddsmaker is due to the overall success Nationals have had against Phillies (8-3) and in an even larger part, the success of the Washington starter along with the current slump of the Philadelphia hurler. Nationals send one of the team's unsung pitchers to the mound in Tanner Roark who is 12-7 on the campaign with a 2.80 ERA and 6-2 on the road with a 3.29 ERA.
Nationals have thrives w/Roark lately posting a 7-1 record with the righty allowing a single run or less in six of the eight starts. On the other mound, Phillies counter with A.J Burnett carrying a 6-14 record, 4.42 ERA. Burnett is currently saddled with a 7 game winless streak (0-7 TSR) and has seen Phillies falter in 10 of his last 11 starts. Taking a road favorite can be a perilous road in baseball betting. But, with Washington 6-0 in their last 6 games swinging at a starter with a WHIP > 1.30, on an 18-8 stretch platting 4.85 runs/game against a losing team, Phillies 4-10 at home platting 3.0 runs/game vs a visitor with a winning % =>.550 the numbers add up well enough to conclude that Washington is the right choice.
The visiting Texas Rangers will send Miles Mikolas (1-5, 7.48) to the hill to face the Mariners for the first time in his career; note that Mikolas has only recorded two quality outings out of nine starts this season, most recently he?s off a loss to the Marlins where allowed three runs over five plus innings. The Mariners counter with Roenis Elias (9-10, 4.09 ERA) who has also struggled of late with his command, but the left-hander owns a highly respectable 2.10 ERA over his last five starts though (and note that the rookie is 1-0 with a 2.92 ERA in two starts versus Texas). The Mariners continue to play strong baseball after a sweep of the Red Sox over the weekend, they won for the 14th time in 18 games Sunday, scoring an 8-6 victory at Fenway. The Rangers meanwhile continue their struggles and are just 7-23 away from home since June 17th. Seattle's starting pitchers have been dominant at Safeco Field in posting a combined 1.61 ERA during an 8-1 stretch; consider paying the reasonable price to get the red hot home side.
I'm sorry Yankees fans, but I just don't believe in your team. Yes, the Pinstripes just pulled off a 4-game sweep of the White Sox at home over the weekend. Despite this, they still have a -34 run differential for the year. I've written about this before. They are one of two teams in all of baseball (St. Louis) that has a winning record but a negative run differential. That's an unsustainable combination. To put things in perspective, a team w/ a comparable run differential to the Yanks is Minnesota (-36), who is a last place team and 14 games below .500. So generally when the Yankees lose, they lose badly. They won by three runs Sunday, but that's misleading as it was an extra inning game.
This is an ESPN game, which is "old hat" for New York. Not so much for Kansas City, who should be highly motivated to take this make-up game. Not to mention, the Royals are in a heated pennant race, still two games above Detroit in the American League Central. They are off a loss Sunday at Texas, but before that had won three in a row.
This shapes up as a great pitching matchup w/ James Shields opposing Michael Pineda. But I give the edge to the former. Shields is 3-0 w/ a 2.14 ERA and a 1.095 WHIP his L3 starts. He's gone nine consecutive starts w/out allowing more than 3 ER. Against the Yankees on June 8th, he went six innings and allowed just an unearned run in a 2-1 win. The next day's game was the rain out being made up here, so that's an edge to the Royals. Pineda, like Shields, continues to pitch well. But the team is 0-2 since he returned from the DL. Kansas City tends to always have the edge when it comes to the bullpen and they have the better team.
