04:05 PM MLB [965] MIN TWINS +108 ( E SANTANA -R / K GRAVEMAN -R )
06:10 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u9-125 (TEX RANGERS vrs CLE INDIANS) ( D HOLLAND -L / J TOMLIN -R )
04:10 PM MLB [978] SEA MARINERS -220 ( A CASHNER -R / N KARNS -R )
05:05 PM MLB [1955] 1H LA DODGERS +0.5 -135 ( A WOOD -L / J HAMMEL -R )
1 unit bet pays 8.48 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-51, -7.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick) this season
Samardzija been poor in day games this season. only two games tho, could be small sample size deception. So I looked back and 4 of last 5 years he's exhibited this tendency to pitch considerably worse in the day alright!
only exception was last year, when Samardzija was bad in both day and night, but worse at night (he tied for the American League lead in home runs allowed and led the league in earned runs allowed). ...Samardzija later said that had been inadvertently tipping his pitches, which lead to this very unusual year for him in many statistical categories and splits.
also, watch for that 40% chance of thunderstorms at Baltimore. Any decent wetness has historically hurt this knuckleballer...might have a good over bet....
Don't forget TX pitcher Derek Holland is from Ohio, he always pitches well there in front of family and friends.
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="Ub7LB6u"><a href="//imgur.com/Ub7LB6u">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Mets believe they've pinpointed the root of Matt Harvey's issues -- a mechanical flaw that flares up as he pitches deeper into games.
Manager Terry Collins says Harvey isn't tipping his pitches but remained tight-lipped beyond that. "The second time through the order, we're seeing things he's doing that are keeping him from having the ability to make the pitches he needs to make," Collins said. "We're seeing a velocity drop, and there is a reason for that. We're seeing a lack of a feel for his breaking ball."
Then there are Harvey's struggles as he gets deeper into games. Through the first four innings, Harvey holds a 3.38 ERA, far from the monstrosity we?ve seen thus far. However, the fifth and sixth innings combined carry an atrocious 11.85 ERA across 13.2 innings. Seeing such a discrepancy normally indicates one of two things: Either the pitcher is getting tired and is changing his mechanics...or he doesn?t feature a deep enough repertoire to keep batters on their toes.
Like Verlander, Jeff Samardzija has excelled in May, pitching into the eighth inning in four of his past five starts, completing it thrice. Over that span, the San Francisco Giants' righty has tossed 38 1/3 stanzas, allowing just six earned runs while registering 36 whiffs versus only six free passes. The Shark has an excellent chance to end the month on a high note with a date at Turner Field against the Atlanta Braves. The home team sports a pedestrian .288 wOBA against righties despite fanning at a below-average 20 percent pace.
Escobar pitched in three games for Triple-A Pawtucket this season, including one start, and did not allow an earned run in seven innings. The 24-year-old made his only career Major League appearances for the Red Sox in 2014, allowing a run in two relief innings and recording two strikeouts.
Escobar, 24, is an eight-year minor league veteran who owns a 4.79 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 159:77 K:BB in parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level (220 innings). He's posted a 4.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts for Triple-A Reno since being claimed off waivers from Boston last month.
Injuries to starters Shelby Miller and Rubby De La Rosa have forced the Arizona Diamondbacks to summon journeyman southpaw Edwin Escobar to face the Houston Astros at Chase Field. On the surface it may seem like a no-brainer to sit Escobar, since the visitors have a bevy of strong right-handed hitters. But consider in May, the Astros sport a lowly .258 wOBA and bloated 29 percent strikeout rate when facing left-handers. Plus, they'll be without their designated hitter.
The over is 14-6-1 in Pittsburgh?s last 21 road games and the over is 19-7-4 in Locke?s last 30 road starts
Los Angeles @.CHICAGO
L.A. (5 innings) +105
Yesterday we wrote about the Cubs unsustainable record and they went out there and walloped the Phillies as a 2-1 favorite. Now the Dodgers roll into town and the oddsmakers have made the hometown Cubbies a rather small price. If you bite, the house will be pleased because that?s exactly what they want you to do. The Dodgers bullpen is shaky so we?ll leave them out of this but first we?ll recap some of the facts we mentioned yesterday. The Cubs have had extreme fortune in stringing together hits to create big innings. That?s not going to last. Chicago is hitting .251 overall. Over their past 20 games, they are hitting .238. The Cubbies strike out a lot, they don?t hit for a high average, yet they are playing .708 ball because every bounce has gone their way this year. Things get a lot tougher here for Chicago against Alex Wood.
Wood quietly posted the best skills in May of any starter not named Kershaw: 13.1 K?s/9, 1.5 BB?s/9 54% groundballs. His second-level peripherals were strong too: 12.6% swing and miss rate, 67% first-pitch strike rate, 34% ball %. A 24% hr/f was the only reason his ERA is above 3.00 in May. There is nothing more to be said about Wood.
Jason Hammel?s first full season with the Cubs ended with a significant downturn in the second half (5.03 ERA in 68 innings) that prompted some to undervalue him heading into 2016. He has quieted the doubters with a 2.17 ERA through nine starts (54 IP). Is he developing into an ace? Absolutely not, as many of Hammel?s skills have actually declined. Not only is his strikeout rate down, but it?s accompanied by a dip in swing and miss %. However, his K-rate is still roughly average, so it?s not a major concern. The escalation in free passes and corresponding worsening ball % is worrisome. He hasn?t been able to hang on to those 2015 gains. Hammel?s ability to induce groundballs at a high percentage has been a very positive occurrence, as it has, along with a lucky hr/f, assisted in home run prevention (hr/9). A fortuitous strand rate has been a big factor in his success, as illustrated by an xERA almost two full runs higher than his ERA. After faring pretty well vs. LHB in 2014-15, he has again struggled so far in 2016, thanks largely to an 18% BB%. Hammel is a solid pitcher, but he?s much closer to league average than his current ERA would indicate. Barring improvement with regard to his control and work vs. left-handed batters, Hammel could be in for some rough times ahead, particularly against lefty-heavy lineups. The Dodgers are a heavy left-handed lineup that will feature Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager, Chase Utley, Joc Pederson, Carl Crawford (if he plays) and Yasmani Grandal.
Minnesota +101 over OAKLAND
If you can?t throw strikes in this league, you are going to lose far more games than you win. Enter Kendall Graveman, who appears to be laboring or running on fumes. Graveman has made nine starts this season. In his first five, he walked just eight batters over 29 innings but in his last four starts he has walked 11 over 18.1 innings. His swing and miss rate has shrunk from 9% over his first five starts to just 4% over his last four starts. Throw in a WHIP of 1.60 an opponent BA of .297 and an xERA of 4.97 and he has zero appeal spotting a tag, especially when you consider the team he pitches for.
Minnesota?s offense has heated up. Over the past 15 games, Minnesota has scored the fourth most runs in MLB. The Twinkies are also coming off a three-game sweep in Seattle?s Safeco Field and did heavy damage against some damn good pitchers. They have not been getting the starting pitching to compliment the offense but that could change here. Santana has 31 K?s in 36 innings after just eight starts. His season began in July last year thanks to an 80-game PED suspension. Santana started poorly, coughing up 11 HR in 55 innings but he roared down the stretch with just one HR allowed over his final 7 starts. Particularly given his hiatus, this skill set looks remarkably stable, which has continued this year. Santana?s velocity is up to 92 MPH and his swing and miss rate is also above league average at 11%. This is of course just one game in which anything can happen but we?re after value and in that regard, the A?s are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league against right-handers. The Twinkies bring some momentum into this series and surely have to be feeling a lot better about things after sweeping the Mariners.
06:10 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u9-125 (TEX RANGERS vrs CLE INDIANS) ( D HOLLAND -L / J TOMLIN -R )
04:10 PM MLB [978] SEA MARINERS -220 ( A CASHNER -R / N KARNS -R )
05:05 PM MLB [1955] 1H LA DODGERS +0.5 -135 ( A WOOD -L / J HAMMEL -R )
1 unit bet pays 8.48 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 6-51, -7.22 units units (risk 1 unit each pick) this season
Samardzija been poor in day games this season. only two games tho, could be small sample size deception. So I looked back and 4 of last 5 years he's exhibited this tendency to pitch considerably worse in the day alright!
only exception was last year, when Samardzija was bad in both day and night, but worse at night (he tied for the American League lead in home runs allowed and led the league in earned runs allowed). ...Samardzija later said that had been inadvertently tipping his pitches, which lead to this very unusual year for him in many statistical categories and splits.
also, watch for that 40% chance of thunderstorms at Baltimore. Any decent wetness has historically hurt this knuckleballer...might have a good over bet....
Don't forget TX pitcher Derek Holland is from Ohio, he always pitches well there in front of family and friends.
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="Ub7LB6u"><a href="//imgur.com/Ub7LB6u">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Mets believe they've pinpointed the root of Matt Harvey's issues -- a mechanical flaw that flares up as he pitches deeper into games.
Manager Terry Collins says Harvey isn't tipping his pitches but remained tight-lipped beyond that. "The second time through the order, we're seeing things he's doing that are keeping him from having the ability to make the pitches he needs to make," Collins said. "We're seeing a velocity drop, and there is a reason for that. We're seeing a lack of a feel for his breaking ball."
Then there are Harvey's struggles as he gets deeper into games. Through the first four innings, Harvey holds a 3.38 ERA, far from the monstrosity we?ve seen thus far. However, the fifth and sixth innings combined carry an atrocious 11.85 ERA across 13.2 innings. Seeing such a discrepancy normally indicates one of two things: Either the pitcher is getting tired and is changing his mechanics...or he doesn?t feature a deep enough repertoire to keep batters on their toes.
Like Verlander, Jeff Samardzija has excelled in May, pitching into the eighth inning in four of his past five starts, completing it thrice. Over that span, the San Francisco Giants' righty has tossed 38 1/3 stanzas, allowing just six earned runs while registering 36 whiffs versus only six free passes. The Shark has an excellent chance to end the month on a high note with a date at Turner Field against the Atlanta Braves. The home team sports a pedestrian .288 wOBA against righties despite fanning at a below-average 20 percent pace.
Escobar pitched in three games for Triple-A Pawtucket this season, including one start, and did not allow an earned run in seven innings. The 24-year-old made his only career Major League appearances for the Red Sox in 2014, allowing a run in two relief innings and recording two strikeouts.
Escobar, 24, is an eight-year minor league veteran who owns a 4.79 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 159:77 K:BB in parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level (220 innings). He's posted a 4.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in five starts for Triple-A Reno since being claimed off waivers from Boston last month.
Injuries to starters Shelby Miller and Rubby De La Rosa have forced the Arizona Diamondbacks to summon journeyman southpaw Edwin Escobar to face the Houston Astros at Chase Field. On the surface it may seem like a no-brainer to sit Escobar, since the visitors have a bevy of strong right-handed hitters. But consider in May, the Astros sport a lowly .258 wOBA and bloated 29 percent strikeout rate when facing left-handers. Plus, they'll be without their designated hitter.
The over is 14-6-1 in Pittsburgh?s last 21 road games and the over is 19-7-4 in Locke?s last 30 road starts
Los Angeles @.CHICAGO
L.A. (5 innings) +105
Yesterday we wrote about the Cubs unsustainable record and they went out there and walloped the Phillies as a 2-1 favorite. Now the Dodgers roll into town and the oddsmakers have made the hometown Cubbies a rather small price. If you bite, the house will be pleased because that?s exactly what they want you to do. The Dodgers bullpen is shaky so we?ll leave them out of this but first we?ll recap some of the facts we mentioned yesterday. The Cubs have had extreme fortune in stringing together hits to create big innings. That?s not going to last. Chicago is hitting .251 overall. Over their past 20 games, they are hitting .238. The Cubbies strike out a lot, they don?t hit for a high average, yet they are playing .708 ball because every bounce has gone their way this year. Things get a lot tougher here for Chicago against Alex Wood.
Wood quietly posted the best skills in May of any starter not named Kershaw: 13.1 K?s/9, 1.5 BB?s/9 54% groundballs. His second-level peripherals were strong too: 12.6% swing and miss rate, 67% first-pitch strike rate, 34% ball %. A 24% hr/f was the only reason his ERA is above 3.00 in May. There is nothing more to be said about Wood.
Jason Hammel?s first full season with the Cubs ended with a significant downturn in the second half (5.03 ERA in 68 innings) that prompted some to undervalue him heading into 2016. He has quieted the doubters with a 2.17 ERA through nine starts (54 IP). Is he developing into an ace? Absolutely not, as many of Hammel?s skills have actually declined. Not only is his strikeout rate down, but it?s accompanied by a dip in swing and miss %. However, his K-rate is still roughly average, so it?s not a major concern. The escalation in free passes and corresponding worsening ball % is worrisome. He hasn?t been able to hang on to those 2015 gains. Hammel?s ability to induce groundballs at a high percentage has been a very positive occurrence, as it has, along with a lucky hr/f, assisted in home run prevention (hr/9). A fortuitous strand rate has been a big factor in his success, as illustrated by an xERA almost two full runs higher than his ERA. After faring pretty well vs. LHB in 2014-15, he has again struggled so far in 2016, thanks largely to an 18% BB%. Hammel is a solid pitcher, but he?s much closer to league average than his current ERA would indicate. Barring improvement with regard to his control and work vs. left-handed batters, Hammel could be in for some rough times ahead, particularly against lefty-heavy lineups. The Dodgers are a heavy left-handed lineup that will feature Adrian Gonzalez, Corey Seager, Chase Utley, Joc Pederson, Carl Crawford (if he plays) and Yasmani Grandal.
Minnesota +101 over OAKLAND
If you can?t throw strikes in this league, you are going to lose far more games than you win. Enter Kendall Graveman, who appears to be laboring or running on fumes. Graveman has made nine starts this season. In his first five, he walked just eight batters over 29 innings but in his last four starts he has walked 11 over 18.1 innings. His swing and miss rate has shrunk from 9% over his first five starts to just 4% over his last four starts. Throw in a WHIP of 1.60 an opponent BA of .297 and an xERA of 4.97 and he has zero appeal spotting a tag, especially when you consider the team he pitches for.
Minnesota?s offense has heated up. Over the past 15 games, Minnesota has scored the fourth most runs in MLB. The Twinkies are also coming off a three-game sweep in Seattle?s Safeco Field and did heavy damage against some damn good pitchers. They have not been getting the starting pitching to compliment the offense but that could change here. Santana has 31 K?s in 36 innings after just eight starts. His season began in July last year thanks to an 80-game PED suspension. Santana started poorly, coughing up 11 HR in 55 innings but he roared down the stretch with just one HR allowed over his final 7 starts. Particularly given his hiatus, this skill set looks remarkably stable, which has continued this year. Santana?s velocity is up to 92 MPH and his swing and miss rate is also above league average at 11%. This is of course just one game in which anything can happen but we?re after value and in that regard, the A?s are one of the weakest hitting teams in the league against right-handers. The Twinkies bring some momentum into this series and surely have to be feeling a lot better about things after sweeping the Mariners.
