07:05 PM MLB [901] CHI CUBS -1.5 -160 ( J LESTER -L / A MORGAN -L )
07:05 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u7.5 -105 (NY METS vrs PIT PIRATES) (MATZ/NIESE -L )
10:10 PM MLB [908] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (COL ROCKIES vrs LA DODGERS) (CHATWOOD/ M BOLSINGER -R )
07:05 PM MLB [910] TOTAL u8.5 +105 (LA ANGELS vrs NY YANKEES) ( M SHOEMAKER -R / M TANAKA -R )
08:05 PM MLB [916] TEX RANGERS +122 ( M FIERS -R / C LEWIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 25 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 7-59, -7.52 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
Chatwood is a Southern California native, will have plenty friends and family at this game. His last 4 starts in LA he issued 1, 0, 2, 1 earned runs...
I am taking the under (which has hit in 9 of Chat's last 10 starts) but I had the under in LA last night, and we had a 6-12 slugfest!....while in San Diego, the two worst offensive teams in MLB face each other tonight in one of the finest pitcher's parks in the league - and we'll probably get a 9-11 slugfest!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jon Lester made it through at least seven innings in four of his first five outings, then he went the entire month of May without an effort lasting that long. The veteran southpaw opened June with a complete game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, fanning 10 with nary a walk. Lester has a great chance to make it two straight long outings. as the Chicago Cubs open a series in Citizens Bank Park against the Philadelphia Phillies. With a lefty on the hill, the home team has recorded the league's second lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) of .271, while fanning the fifth most at 24 percent.
----
Shoemaker continued his recent dominance, pitching at least seven innings and notching at least eight strikeouts for the third straight start after reaching neither benchmark in each of his first seven starts. Inconsistency has been a trend so far in Shoemaker?s career, as he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA as a rookie in 2014 before falling to 7-10 with a 4.46 ERA last year.
The fastball is up near the mid-90s, the splitter is a legitimate out pitch again, and the aggression is at an all-time high.
Shoemaker pinned his resurgence on "better focus, better execution," even if that may seem a little oversimplistic.
Shoemaker's four-seam fastball was thrown at an average of 92 mph and topped out at 94 on the first day of June. His average velocity in May was 92.82 mph, the highest of any month in his career, according to PITCHf/x data.
Shoemaker credits part of that to the extra weight he normally packs on when the season begins. The 29-year-old right-hander said he has gained an extra 10 or so pounds since Opening Day, which "definitely helps" play up his fastball.
The splitter has been just as big a weapon, though.
Shoemaker has gone to that pitch -- the pitch that played such a big role in his breakthrough 2014 season -- 37 percent of the time over his last three starts. He has generated 43 swings and misses with that pitch over his last three starts, after generating just 20 of them over his previous seven starts.
---
Michael Fulmer vs. Toronto Blue Jays - I really want to see if Fulmer can be effective against a tough offense, unlike the three weak opponents he's had recently.
Two of the weakest offenses in the league square off in Petco Park, so you know what that means: The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will have a 12-11 slugfest.
New York Mets southpaw Steven Matz could be catching the lefty-mashing Pittsburgh Pirates at the right time, as three of the Bucs' better right-handed cogs are ailing and all missed yesterday's affair with left-hander Hector Santiago. If Andrew McCutchen, David Freese and Francisco Cervelli are forced to miss this contest in PNC Park, Matz is in an even better spot. For the season, the Pirates hit lefties to the tune of a .347 wOBA but whiff at a 24 percent clip.
Improved mechanics have helped Perez generate more life with his hard sinker since he returned to the Majors in May. He has limited right-handed hitters to a .179 batting average over his past five starts.--The Braves are 6-1 in Perez? last seven starts!
Christian Friedrich, LHP-Through four starts, the southpaw has posted some serious reverse splits, allowing a 1.069 OPS vs. lefties but just a .627 mark for righties. Friedrich allowed three earned runs - all in the first -- vs. Seattle on Wednesday.
James Paxton Entering 2014, I was on the Paxton hype train. Then when he returned fresh as a daisy for 2015, I was there waiting for him on the platform like a beau in a black-and-white film. Thankfully I wised up enough not to buy into him for his 2016 debut as he went 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks, though there may be something here. He was flashing high 90s heat all game and his own error cost him a bunch in the unearned run + extra batters department in the first inning, but enough of the excuses. I'd take a flier on him because why not. His ceiling is super high and it's plausible he gets there...
The right-hander should be happy to be back out on the road after four of his last five outings came in Colorado. Chatwood is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.53 ERA [on the road] and hasn't allowed a homer in five starts outside of Coors Field, where his ERA is 5.30.
Indians vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8?
The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (3-2, 4.27 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Wednesday. Bauer has been serviceable this year, going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile James Paxton (0-1, 7.36) who remains in the rotation despite getting destroyed by the Padres in his season debut, allowing eight runs off ten hits over just 3.2 innings on Wednesday. With ace Felix Hernandez on the DL with injury, the M?s are forced to give Paxton another shot. These teams have been hitting the cover off the ball lately, so consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Mets at Pirates
Pick: Under
The Mets took two of three games from the Marlins, holding Miami to just six runs over three games. The pitching staff is starting to look much more like last year's dominant group. Steven Martz has been a very pleasant surprise for the Mets, posting a 7-1 record and 2.60 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Martz has had eight consecutive quality starts. The Pirates are trying to climb back into the NL Central race, as they trail the Cubs by 9.5 games now. The Pirates lost on Sunday to the Angels, 5-4, making that five losses in their last six games. Jonathon Niese starts today with a 5-2 record and 4.36 ERA. Niese has been very good lately, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. These clubs have gone UNDER in 12 of the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh. With two very good pitchers on the hill today I look for that to continue here.
Braves at Padres
Play: Braves
The Braves don't win often, but when Williams Perez takes the mound, they have found success. Atlanta has won six of Perez's last seven starts, including recent home underdog victories over the Giants and Marlins. Perez has pitched into the sixth inning or later in four straight outings, while allowing 2 ER in three of the last five starts. Christian Friedrich counters for San Diego, as the southpaw has won his last two starts, both in the underdog role against the D-backs and Mariners, while getting a combined 24 runs of support. I'll back the Braves here as a dog to beat the Padres.
Atlanta +120 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres lost 10-3 yesterday. Twice last week they allowed 16 runs in a game on two separate occasions. That?s 42 runs against in three games combined over the past week. Knock out San Diego?s starter early and the floodgates open up. Atlanta has a chance to do just that against Christian Friedrich.
Friedrich has a 2.53 ERA after four appearances, which includes two starts in a row. This is another case of surface stats being misleading, as Friedrich?s xERA is three runs higher than his actual ERA. He?s walked 14 batters and struck out 15. His fastball averages 88 MPH with very little life. His swing and miss rate is 6% and his first-pitch strike rate is horrible at 53%. Friedrich has survived his two starts because of his unsustainable 86% strand rate. His xERA of 5.59 tells his real story.
Williams Perez is not much better than Friedrich. In fact, one could compare their numbers and practically come up with identical results. However, Perez has an elite 62% groundball rate, which keeps his xERA 1?-runs lower than Friedrich?s. Furthermore, Perez?s strand rate of 67% is 20 points lower tha Friedrich's and that is the difference in each pitchers actual ERA. There is another difference too. Atlanta is taking back a tag while one of the worst starters in baseball is spotting one.
Cleveland at Seattle
Play: Seattle -120
MLB is the most difficult professional sport to project letdown situations since teams play nearly every day and are accustomed to carrying an even keel mentality. Tonight may present us with one of those letdown situations as the Cleveland Indians come off of a huge four-game sweep of AL Central Division rival Kansas City and now travel cross country to play a Seattle team which was just swept on the road by division rival Texas. Expect Seattle to be extremely motivated to get back on the winning track against Trevor Bauer who has pitched well this season but has had difficulties against some Mariners hitters. Bauer has thrown quality starts in four of his last five outings and he?s registered a respectable 1.28 WHIP this season but he?s gone 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA against Seattle. Seven of tonight?s Seattle starters have combined to go 19 of 49 against Bauer for a .388 BA, .490 OBP, .653 SLG%, and 1.143 OPS. Mariners starter James Paxton was horrendous in his return from the DL last Wednesday and attributed it to jitters, going too fast and not getting his feet set. His 98 MPH velocity indicates his arm is OK and figure him to show improvement tonight. Cleveland has had road woes offensively hitting just .230 with an OBP of .290 in 26 away games this season. There are no bullpen concerns for either side here since overall, the key arms were lightly worked the past couple days. Price on Paxton and the home team is fair enough to call for a combination letdown/bounce back play.
07:05 PM MLB [904] TOTAL u7.5 -105 (NY METS vrs PIT PIRATES) (MATZ/NIESE -L )
10:10 PM MLB [908] TOTAL u7.5 -120 (COL ROCKIES vrs LA DODGERS) (CHATWOOD/ M BOLSINGER -R )
07:05 PM MLB [910] TOTAL u8.5 +105 (LA ANGELS vrs NY YANKEES) ( M SHOEMAKER -R / M TANAKA -R )
08:05 PM MLB [916] TEX RANGERS +122 ( M FIERS -R / C LEWIS -R )
1 unit bet pays 25 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 7-59, -7.52 units units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
Chatwood is a Southern California native, will have plenty friends and family at this game. His last 4 starts in LA he issued 1, 0, 2, 1 earned runs...
I am taking the under (which has hit in 9 of Chat's last 10 starts) but I had the under in LA last night, and we had a 6-12 slugfest!....while in San Diego, the two worst offensive teams in MLB face each other tonight in one of the finest pitcher's parks in the league - and we'll probably get a 9-11 slugfest!
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Jon Lester made it through at least seven innings in four of his first five outings, then he went the entire month of May without an effort lasting that long. The veteran southpaw opened June with a complete game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, fanning 10 with nary a walk. Lester has a great chance to make it two straight long outings. as the Chicago Cubs open a series in Citizens Bank Park against the Philadelphia Phillies. With a lefty on the hill, the home team has recorded the league's second lowest weighted on base average (wOBA) of .271, while fanning the fifth most at 24 percent.
----
Shoemaker continued his recent dominance, pitching at least seven innings and notching at least eight strikeouts for the third straight start after reaching neither benchmark in each of his first seven starts. Inconsistency has been a trend so far in Shoemaker?s career, as he went 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA as a rookie in 2014 before falling to 7-10 with a 4.46 ERA last year.
The fastball is up near the mid-90s, the splitter is a legitimate out pitch again, and the aggression is at an all-time high.
Shoemaker pinned his resurgence on "better focus, better execution," even if that may seem a little oversimplistic.
Shoemaker's four-seam fastball was thrown at an average of 92 mph and topped out at 94 on the first day of June. His average velocity in May was 92.82 mph, the highest of any month in his career, according to PITCHf/x data.
Shoemaker credits part of that to the extra weight he normally packs on when the season begins. The 29-year-old right-hander said he has gained an extra 10 or so pounds since Opening Day, which "definitely helps" play up his fastball.
The splitter has been just as big a weapon, though.
Shoemaker has gone to that pitch -- the pitch that played such a big role in his breakthrough 2014 season -- 37 percent of the time over his last three starts. He has generated 43 swings and misses with that pitch over his last three starts, after generating just 20 of them over his previous seven starts.
---
Michael Fulmer vs. Toronto Blue Jays - I really want to see if Fulmer can be effective against a tough offense, unlike the three weak opponents he's had recently.
Two of the weakest offenses in the league square off in Petco Park, so you know what that means: The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will have a 12-11 slugfest.
New York Mets southpaw Steven Matz could be catching the lefty-mashing Pittsburgh Pirates at the right time, as three of the Bucs' better right-handed cogs are ailing and all missed yesterday's affair with left-hander Hector Santiago. If Andrew McCutchen, David Freese and Francisco Cervelli are forced to miss this contest in PNC Park, Matz is in an even better spot. For the season, the Pirates hit lefties to the tune of a .347 wOBA but whiff at a 24 percent clip.
Improved mechanics have helped Perez generate more life with his hard sinker since he returned to the Majors in May. He has limited right-handed hitters to a .179 batting average over his past five starts.--The Braves are 6-1 in Perez? last seven starts!
Christian Friedrich, LHP-Through four starts, the southpaw has posted some serious reverse splits, allowing a 1.069 OPS vs. lefties but just a .627 mark for righties. Friedrich allowed three earned runs - all in the first -- vs. Seattle on Wednesday.
James Paxton Entering 2014, I was on the Paxton hype train. Then when he returned fresh as a daisy for 2015, I was there waiting for him on the platform like a beau in a black-and-white film. Thankfully I wised up enough not to buy into him for his 2016 debut as he went 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks, though there may be something here. He was flashing high 90s heat all game and his own error cost him a bunch in the unearned run + extra batters department in the first inning, but enough of the excuses. I'd take a flier on him because why not. His ceiling is super high and it's plausible he gets there...
The right-hander should be happy to be back out on the road after four of his last five outings came in Colorado. Chatwood is 4-0 with a major league-best 0.53 ERA [on the road] and hasn't allowed a homer in five starts outside of Coors Field, where his ERA is 5.30.
Indians vs. Mariners
Play: Over 8?
The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (3-2, 4.27 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Wednesday. Bauer has been serviceable this year, going 2-1 with a 3.63 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile James Paxton (0-1, 7.36) who remains in the rotation despite getting destroyed by the Padres in his season debut, allowing eight runs off ten hits over just 3.2 innings on Wednesday. With ace Felix Hernandez on the DL with injury, the M?s are forced to give Paxton another shot. These teams have been hitting the cover off the ball lately, so consider a second look at the OVER in this one.
Mets at Pirates
Pick: Under
The Mets took two of three games from the Marlins, holding Miami to just six runs over three games. The pitching staff is starting to look much more like last year's dominant group. Steven Martz has been a very pleasant surprise for the Mets, posting a 7-1 record and 2.60 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP. Martz has had eight consecutive quality starts. The Pirates are trying to climb back into the NL Central race, as they trail the Cubs by 9.5 games now. The Pirates lost on Sunday to the Angels, 5-4, making that five losses in their last six games. Jonathon Niese starts today with a 5-2 record and 4.36 ERA. Niese has been very good lately, allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. These clubs have gone UNDER in 12 of the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh. With two very good pitchers on the hill today I look for that to continue here.
Braves at Padres
Play: Braves
The Braves don't win often, but when Williams Perez takes the mound, they have found success. Atlanta has won six of Perez's last seven starts, including recent home underdog victories over the Giants and Marlins. Perez has pitched into the sixth inning or later in four straight outings, while allowing 2 ER in three of the last five starts. Christian Friedrich counters for San Diego, as the southpaw has won his last two starts, both in the underdog role against the D-backs and Mariners, while getting a combined 24 runs of support. I'll back the Braves here as a dog to beat the Padres.
Atlanta +120 over SAN DIEGO
The Padres lost 10-3 yesterday. Twice last week they allowed 16 runs in a game on two separate occasions. That?s 42 runs against in three games combined over the past week. Knock out San Diego?s starter early and the floodgates open up. Atlanta has a chance to do just that against Christian Friedrich.
Friedrich has a 2.53 ERA after four appearances, which includes two starts in a row. This is another case of surface stats being misleading, as Friedrich?s xERA is three runs higher than his actual ERA. He?s walked 14 batters and struck out 15. His fastball averages 88 MPH with very little life. His swing and miss rate is 6% and his first-pitch strike rate is horrible at 53%. Friedrich has survived his two starts because of his unsustainable 86% strand rate. His xERA of 5.59 tells his real story.
Williams Perez is not much better than Friedrich. In fact, one could compare their numbers and practically come up with identical results. However, Perez has an elite 62% groundball rate, which keeps his xERA 1?-runs lower than Friedrich?s. Furthermore, Perez?s strand rate of 67% is 20 points lower tha Friedrich's and that is the difference in each pitchers actual ERA. There is another difference too. Atlanta is taking back a tag while one of the worst starters in baseball is spotting one.
Cleveland at Seattle
Play: Seattle -120
MLB is the most difficult professional sport to project letdown situations since teams play nearly every day and are accustomed to carrying an even keel mentality. Tonight may present us with one of those letdown situations as the Cleveland Indians come off of a huge four-game sweep of AL Central Division rival Kansas City and now travel cross country to play a Seattle team which was just swept on the road by division rival Texas. Expect Seattle to be extremely motivated to get back on the winning track against Trevor Bauer who has pitched well this season but has had difficulties against some Mariners hitters. Bauer has thrown quality starts in four of his last five outings and he?s registered a respectable 1.28 WHIP this season but he?s gone 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA against Seattle. Seven of tonight?s Seattle starters have combined to go 19 of 49 against Bauer for a .388 BA, .490 OBP, .653 SLG%, and 1.143 OPS. Mariners starter James Paxton was horrendous in his return from the DL last Wednesday and attributed it to jitters, going too fast and not getting his feet set. His 98 MPH velocity indicates his arm is OK and figure him to show improvement tonight. Cleveland has had road woes offensively hitting just .230 with an OBP of .290 in 26 away games this season. There are no bullpen concerns for either side here since overall, the key arms were lightly worked the past couple days. Price on Paxton and the home team is fair enough to call for a combination letdown/bounce back play.
