09:00 PM MU CLE CAVALIERS vrs GS WARRIORS:Altenative spread [35509] CLE CAVALIERS +10.5 -245
09:40 PM MLB [956] ARI DBACKS -160 ( M BOLSINGER -R / Z GREINKE -R )
10:15 PM MLB [959] MIL BREWERS +120 ( C ANDERSON -R / M CAIN -R )
07:05 PM MLB [970] TOR BLUE JAYS -185 ( J EICKHOFF -R / R DICKEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 6.76 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-68, +4.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9 yesterday afternoon
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="d4NO9Pn"><a href="//imgur.com/d4NO9Pn">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Dickey has been working on his secondary pitches a lot of late and it helped him survive 5 1/3 IP during his last start vs. Detroit. The knuckleball wasn't working that day, but he still found a way to win. He's 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA all-time vs. PHI.
the Reds will be trotting out right-hander Daniel Wright. In his three games this year (one start) and 0-2 record, Wright has managed a 7.20 ERA with a 2.00 WHIP in 10 innings total... Wright has allowed a whopping 19 hits and 11 runs (eight earned) in ten innings pitched...but It has been a breakthrough season for Wright in minors, he was 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA in eight games (two starts) for Pensacola and 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA for Louisville in two starts.
Aaron Blair has had two rough starts that really inflated his ERA up to 7.13, to go along with a 1.84 WHIP and an 0-4 record. Blair isn?t much of a strikeout pitcher, collecting 20 strikeouts in his 35.1 innings pitched on the season, and walks have been an issue for the young pitcher, issuing 21 walks giving him a weak 5.35 BB/9 rating....but like Wright, he was excellent in minors, Blair, ranked as the Braves' No. 2 prospect, was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Gwinnett.
Greinke - After a slow start to the season, the ace right-hander has gone 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP across his past five starts. Greinke could stay hot when he faces a Dodgers lineup that ranks 25th in the Majors with a .691 OPS against righties.
Cesar Ramos, who has gone 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in seven games (three starts this year). As a starter in his career he has gone 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 starts, including 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in his three starts this year. He has faced the A?s 12 times out of the pen in his career and he is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in those appearances. He has allowed three ERs on 11 hits in 11 innings of work over that span.
Anderson (4-6, 4.21) doesn't have much of a lifetime record against the Giants, going just 1-2 with an 8.53 ERA in three starts. However, that lone win was a doozy, coming in his lone start at AT&T Park, when he shut out the Giants on one hit over seven innings last June for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It is just a coincidence, but Cain's return comes on a special night -- the fourth anniversary of his perfect game against the Houston Astros.
That said, history definitely won't be on Cain's side Monday night. He has virtual thrown batting practice to the Brewers in recent meetings, going 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his last three starts against them.
Cain will take a 3-8 lifetime record against the Brewers to the mound with him....This game is 5:30 local time first pitch; are shadows an issue?
--
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Pick: Over
Both clubs having seasons they would like to forget. The Reds are 24-39 while the Braves are a dismal 18-44 with just seven home wins. So today, I'm looking at the OVER. The Reds have been a good road over team, especially against right handed pitchers where they are 8-1-1 O/U their last 10. Daniel Wright has done just about everything wrong so far for the Reds. Wright is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Wright has just three appearances and 10 innings, but he's allowed 19 hits and 11 runs. The Braves took one of three games from the Cubs, but allowed 22 runs in the process. Today's starter, Aaron Blair is 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Both these pitchers still looking for that first win and if one of them can go five innings today, they will get in the win column. For me, I'll just sit back and enjoy the runs.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Play: Miami Marlins -116
San Diego right-hander Colin Rea owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 4.46 ERA and 1.16 WHIP within the friendly confines of PETCO Park. The young hurler also owns a 4.39 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, 16.2% K%, 9.2% BB% and a 7.0% K-BB%. Rea posted a 5.32 xFIP in the month of May and currently has a 4.39 xFIP at home.
Rea finds little support in a bad San Diego bullpen that owns 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2016, including posting a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home and a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at night. Miami sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound, who is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road. Chen's metrics are nothing to get overly excited about - 4.24 FIP, 4.09 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA, but his 3.53 xFIP away from home supports our investment on the Marlins.
Chen garnered a 3.86 FIP in the month of May with a solid 8.36 K/9 rate (15.5% K-BB%). The southpaw should have success against a scuffling San Diego lineup that is averaging just 4.0 runs per game this season (.237 AVG.; .289 OBP; .663 OPS), including 3.8 runs per game at home (.233 AVG.; .286 OBP; .644 OPS). Technically speaking, Miami is a profitable 9-2 in its last 11 games versus National League West foes and 4-1 in Chen's last five starts with four days of rest.
In contrast, the Padres are a money-burning 1-9 in their last ten games versus teams with a winning record, including 1-6 at home. Take Miami in Game 1 of this series and invest with confidence.
Rangers +114
Texas is worth a look here as they are showing great value as a decently priced road dog against the A's. The Rangers will have to turn to Cesar Ramos after it was announced that Yu Darvish wouldn't be able to go. Ramos isn't a bad option to turn to, as he's got a 2.76 ERA in 3 starts this season. Oakland will send out the inconsistent Sean Manaea, who has a 6.20 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 8 starts. Texas is going to be highly motivated after getting swept by the A's last time they visited Oakland, plus the Rangers are playing the much better baseball at the moment.
Milwaukee Brewers + over San Francisco Giants
With expectations for 2016 that were extremely low the Brewers have been a pleasant surprise, only three games below .500 and creeping into the wild card race. Improvement in the pitching staff has been a primary cause and Chase Anderson is central in that regard. Anderson is 3-1 in his last five starts and he has allowed just 10 earned runs over his last six starts walking only four batters in that run as well. Anderson isn't a big swing and miss producer but his command has been sharp and he has minimized the home run damage of late after allowing eight home runs in his first six starts of the season. The Milwaukee bullpen also owns an ERA below 3.00 in the past 10 games and AT&T Park is favorable for pitching.
The Giants had a late night game last night and Matt Cain is certainly hard to count on. He has just one win in 10 starts this season last starting on May 27 following a hamstring strain. In the last 10 games the Giants are batting .192 as a team and they have topped four runs just once in the last seven games. Cain has allowed three or more runs in half of his starts this season and he is getting barely six strikeouts per nine innings as he isn't close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. San Francisco has needed a lot of bullpen innings the past two days and coming off back-to-back wins over the 2015 NL Champions this is a Brewers team playing with confidence despite still being priced as a much lesser squad in the NL picture.
-- The Angels are 0-10 O/U since Sep 09, 2015 at home off a home game in which they allowed 6+ runs.
GOLDEN STATE -5? -110 over Cleveland
We are playing this one from a reactionary measure, as we have seen this market plummet two points toward the home favorite as a result of the suspension to Warriors forward Draymond Green for Game Five. Green picked up a flagrant foul in Game Four and a subsequent suspension, which has led much of the market to believe that Cleveland can orchestrate the upset in his absence. We are by no means concerned about the absence of Draymond Green in this contest because the Warriors have shown they know how to win without key players. Look no further than the display of supremacy by the Warriors against the Rockets and Trailblazers when they were without the services of their MVP point guard Stephen Curry. The Warriors responded with guard Klay Thompson picking up the slack and emerging as the chief scorer for Golden State. Despite their accolades, achievements and talent, Golden State employs a ?next-man? up mentality and with Green being forced to sit Game Five, we can expect an enhanced role for both Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. Both Barnes and Iguodala are playmakers and battle-tested veterans that know how to make impact plays when they are needed most. While some may showcase some concern about whether or not Golden State can curtail King James, we show no trepidation here because Cleveland has bigger fish to fry with ?The Splash Brothers? leading a deluge of three-pointers that has propelled this team to success all season. Furthermore, Cleveland (or anyone else for that matter) has not been able to solve these two.
King James can score 40 points and perhaps he may be undeterred a bit more with Green having to watch the game in a suit and tie, but Cleveland will not be afforded much success if they cannot find a way to quell the onslaught of Curry and Thompson. Besides that, LeBron is the best player in the league when his team has a 20-point lead. You know our stance on playing value and the dangers of getting behind teams when there is a market overreaction. The Green revelation feeds the James narrative more but let?s not forget that Golden State has lost just three times at the Oracle all season long and they have always been successful in putting teams to bed when they get an elimination game at home. This one should be no different. Look for Golden State to wrap up their second consecutive NBA title tonight and to do so with an exclamation point against a weary and battered Cleveland Cavaliers (Risking 2,2 units to win 2).
Cincinnati -103 over ATLANTA
7:05 PM EST. Not exactly the marquee game on today?s menu but they all pay the same and when Atlanta is favored, it?s always worth having a close look at the dog. Cincinnati has seven wins in 27 road games. Rookie Daniel Wright has made three starts and brings a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP into this one. Combine the Reds? road record with Wright?s awful numbers and you get an underpriced pooch so let us break it down for you. Daniel Wright?s first ever MLB start occurred in Los Angeles. He went 5.1 innings and allowed seven hits and three earned runs. Two of those hits were bloop singles. He walked one and struck out four. Wright then made two more starts, one at Coors Field and one at Great American Ballpark against the Nationals. Against Washington, Wright lasted 1.1 innings. He surrendered four hits and three earned runs before getting the hook. However, only one of those runs was earned due to two Cincinnati errors. In total, Wright faced nine Washington batters and he induced six grounders. In 10 innings covering three starts, Wright has walked one batter and struck out six. Wright has a strong, durable frame and has spent most of his career as a starter. He works aggressively with an 88-94 mph fastball and complements it with a good curveball and change-up that features late sinking action. Wright is adept at pitch sequencing and generally works consistently ahead in the count. He may not have plus stuff or an elite fastball, but he has enough ingredients to be a viable option when taking back a tag against a Braves? squad that owns the league's worst home OPS at .588.
Atlanta is coming off a three-game weekend series against the Cubs. The Braves drew over 30,000 fans to each game and while Atlanta lost two of three, crowds like that bring excitement and intensity. For Atlanta, things get back to normal here, as they will likely draw about 12,000 fans for this game to the stadium will look rather empty. It?s a letdown spot for the Braves and now Aaron Blair will be favored for the first time in his short career.
Blair is a starter that we?re watching closely. He impressed in the minors with his aggressive nature and ability to pitch downhill to keep the ball on the ground but has not brought that with him to this level. Blair is falling behind almost every hitter he faces and he?s walking more than he?s whiffing. In 35 frames over eight starts, Blair has walked 21 batters while strikeout out 20. His first-pitch strike rate of 56% is weak and that rate was 45% in his last start. He now brings a 1.84 WHIP into this game as a result of falling behind hitters. He?s allowed 44 hits in 35 innings for an oppBA of .317. He?s also 0-3 at home with an ERA/xERA split of 6.08/5.94. There are risky favorites in this league and then there are risky favorites like Aaron Blair. Regardless of outcome, pulling the trigger here is a must. (This one is unofficial, as we have not pulled trigger yet, as we wait to see where the line goes).
Minnesota +113 over L.A. ANGELS
10:05 PM EST. Ricky Nolasco is 2-4 with an ERA of 5.17 and he pitches for a team that is playing .300 ball. Naturally the prices on a combination like this are cheaper than a filet-o-fish combo, which makes us buyers. Nolasco is coming on big time. He has 29 K?s against just eight walks over his last 33 innings. His xERA of 3.71 is far below his actual 5.17 ERA. Nolasco has been known as a chronic underachiever for years. He once signed a three-year, 26M deal with the Marlins but more often than not, he failed to deliver the goods. He has earned a reputation as a pitcher who could never quite deliver on the solid skills he displayed year after year but now he?s pitching with no pressure in a relaxed atmosphere. We may not have heard the last from Nolasco, as he?ll be a prime trade deadline acquisition for interested contenders looking for depth. Over his first 12 starts, Nolasco has reversed a three-year slide in K?s, while his control has remained very good. Because of his well-earned reputation of a skills maven that for some reason could never find the results to match, Nolasco has held a ?don?t touch? status for several years and while he may not thrive ever again, he is absolutely worth backing against Jared Weaver when offered a price.
We have not had the luxury of attacking Weaver this year because that ship sailed a long time ago. He?s now a chronic underdog and he?s not worth backing in that role either. Weaver has more wins this year (5) than an entire slew of other MLB pitchers, which is rather remarkable when you consider that he has less pitching skills than most outfielders. Weaver has started 12 games. He?s been taken deep in 11 of those games and has now been tagged for 16 jacks overall. Over his last six starts, Weaver has been taken yard 11 times and has allowed two HR?s or more in six of his last eight starts. Weaver?s xERA told us we were living on the wire with him for years and it finally snapped. His ERA of 5.56 is now in line with his xERA of 5.88. With fastball velocity that resembles a changeup (Weaver?s fastball is 82 MPH), batters are feasting. Now an aging extreme fly-ball pitcher with weak velocity, Weaver is not someone to bank on ever again when favored. He?s pitching for one reason and one reason only and that?s because the Angels have committed 18M to him this season. If we lose this wager, so be it but in regards to Jared Weaver, the hypothetical Jenga blocks have fallen. (Risking 2 units @ +113).
Detroit -106 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. Matt Boyd makes just his fourth start of the year. After three starts, Boyd is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has a BB/K split of 9/17 in 21 frames. Boyd went 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA in 57 innings last year for the Jays and Tigers combined. He excelled across two minor-league levels before his call-up but MLB hitters were far more wise to this finesse lefty's tricks. While we have our concerns regarding Boyd, he was upside for sure and he?s a much better option than James Shields.
Ya think Shields is nervous about this start? Probably not because Shields? has been around for years and is living the dream. The person nervous about this start is the exec that signed off on the deal to pay this stiff 27M of the roughly 45M left on his contract. In other words, the Padres are paying Shields 18M or so to get the f**k out of town. Shields? made his White Sox debut last week against the Nationals and was booed off the field after allowing eight hits and seven runs in two innings. The game before that, his last as a Padre, Shields? was tagged for eight hits and 10 runs in Seattle in 2.2 innings. That?s 16 hits and 17 runs over his last 4.2 innings and someone on this planet is being paid to find a guy like this? Amazing. We?re not playing results here, as we told you about Shields? inevitable demise three years ago when he was a Royal. Metrics tell is when a pitcher has lost his stuff or when there are troubling signs. Shields? skills are still in a steady decline and there is no rebound in sight. His velocity is down, his swing and miss rate was at 4% in his last start and his fly-ball rate continues to rise. Shields? posted a 4.28 ERA before coming over here against National League hitters and no DH in an extreme pitchers park and he now goes to the AL with a DH included at a hitter?s park. James Shields is no longer working his wizardry against the regression gods and anytime he?s involved in an evenly priced game, we are going to fade him instantly. (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Philadelphia +167 over TORONTO
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays are warming up in a big way with their big bats and now the bandwagon is filling up again. Toronto did some heavy offensive damage this past weekend, scoring 25 runs in the three-game sweep over the Orioles. Toronto just finished a slew of games against Boston, Baltimore, New York Yankees and Detroit. In fact, take out three against the Tigers and the Jays have played 16 of their past 19 games against their three biggest AL East rivals. They get a breather here with the Phillies coming to town and it?s just not a good spot to be laying big weight in. Furthermore, the knuckleball is not a pitch to be spotting a big price with either.
R.A. Dickey brings his knuckleball to this start and there is not a lot to be said about it. The knuckleball is either dancing or it?s not. It?s not a pitch you can sit on either because even if a hitter knows it?s coming, it still flutters and could end up anywhere in or out of the strike-zone. Derek Jeter once said about the knuckleball after another frustrating day against it, ?I don?t think HE (referring to the pitcher) even knows where it?s going?. That about sums it up for the knuckler. It?s a freak pitch thrown by guys that were or are desperate to make it to the big leagues. There isn?t a person on Earth that can predict how the knuckler will hold up from game to game but when it doesn?t hold up, the pitching lines are ugly. With a knuckleball pitcher, there is no such thing as ?working through your bad stuff?. Knucklers either get whacked or they do not.
We would much rather roll the dice with a solid pitcher taking back a big tag than on a knuckleball pitcher spotting a big tag. Jerad Eickhoff has eight pure quality starts in 12 tries. He has outstanding control (15 BB in 73 innings) to go along with a nifty 62 K?s in those 73 frames. Eickhoff is an unheralded pre-peak pitcher who owns a legit 3.68 ERA that has the full support of his 3.65 ERA. Eickhoff?s swing and miss rate was 13% in his last start. It is 11% over his last five starts after being 9% the previous five. Jared Eickhoff is getting better with each passing month. He?s a student of the game that absorbs everything he sees and uses it to improve. His determination and pitching IQ is a joy to watch and while there will be bumps in the road, this kid has too much talent and determination to be priced in this range against a knuckleball pitcher. (Risking 2 units).
09:40 PM MLB [956] ARI DBACKS -160 ( M BOLSINGER -R / Z GREINKE -R )
10:15 PM MLB [959] MIL BREWERS +120 ( C ANDERSON -R / M CAIN -R )
07:05 PM MLB [970] TOR BLUE JAYS -185 ( J EICKHOFF -R / R DICKEY -R )
1 unit bet pays 6.76 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-68, +4.14 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9 yesterday afternoon
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :0074x34:
<blockquote class="imgur-embed-pub" lang="en" data-id="d4NO9Pn"><a href="//imgur.com/d4NO9Pn">View post on imgur.com</a></blockquote><script async src="//s.imgur.com/min/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Dickey has been working on his secondary pitches a lot of late and it helped him survive 5 1/3 IP during his last start vs. Detroit. The knuckleball wasn't working that day, but he still found a way to win. He's 5-4 with a 3.03 ERA all-time vs. PHI.
the Reds will be trotting out right-hander Daniel Wright. In his three games this year (one start) and 0-2 record, Wright has managed a 7.20 ERA with a 2.00 WHIP in 10 innings total... Wright has allowed a whopping 19 hits and 11 runs (eight earned) in ten innings pitched...but It has been a breakthrough season for Wright in minors, he was 2-0 with a 0.45 ERA in eight games (two starts) for Pensacola and 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA for Louisville in two starts.
Aaron Blair has had two rough starts that really inflated his ERA up to 7.13, to go along with a 1.84 WHIP and an 0-4 record. Blair isn?t much of a strikeout pitcher, collecting 20 strikeouts in his 35.1 innings pitched on the season, and walks have been an issue for the young pitcher, issuing 21 walks giving him a weak 5.35 BB/9 rating....but like Wright, he was excellent in minors, Blair, ranked as the Braves' No. 2 prospect, was 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Gwinnett.
Greinke - After a slow start to the season, the ace right-hander has gone 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP across his past five starts. Greinke could stay hot when he faces a Dodgers lineup that ranks 25th in the Majors with a .691 OPS against righties.
Cesar Ramos, who has gone 1-2 with a 3.38 ERA in seven games (three starts this year). As a starter in his career he has gone 2-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 13 starts, including 1-1 with a 2.76 ERA in his three starts this year. He has faced the A?s 12 times out of the pen in his career and he is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in those appearances. He has allowed three ERs on 11 hits in 11 innings of work over that span.
Anderson (4-6, 4.21) doesn't have much of a lifetime record against the Giants, going just 1-2 with an 8.53 ERA in three starts. However, that lone win was a doozy, coming in his lone start at AT&T Park, when he shut out the Giants on one hit over seven innings last June for the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It is just a coincidence, but Cain's return comes on a special night -- the fourth anniversary of his perfect game against the Houston Astros.
That said, history definitely won't be on Cain's side Monday night. He has virtual thrown batting practice to the Brewers in recent meetings, going 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA in his last three starts against them.
Cain will take a 3-8 lifetime record against the Brewers to the mound with him....This game is 5:30 local time first pitch; are shadows an issue?
--
Cincinnati at Atlanta
Pick: Over
Both clubs having seasons they would like to forget. The Reds are 24-39 while the Braves are a dismal 18-44 with just seven home wins. So today, I'm looking at the OVER. The Reds have been a good road over team, especially against right handed pitchers where they are 8-1-1 O/U their last 10. Daniel Wright has done just about everything wrong so far for the Reds. Wright is 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Wright has just three appearances and 10 innings, but he's allowed 19 hits and 11 runs. The Braves took one of three games from the Cubs, but allowed 22 runs in the process. Today's starter, Aaron Blair is 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Both these pitchers still looking for that first win and if one of them can go five innings today, they will get in the win column. For me, I'll just sit back and enjoy the runs.
Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
Play: Miami Marlins -116
San Diego right-hander Colin Rea owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 4.46 ERA and 1.16 WHIP within the friendly confines of PETCO Park. The young hurler also owns a 4.39 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, 16.2% K%, 9.2% BB% and a 7.0% K-BB%. Rea posted a 5.32 xFIP in the month of May and currently has a 4.39 xFIP at home.
Rea finds little support in a bad San Diego bullpen that owns 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2016, including posting a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home and a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at night. Miami sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound, who is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road. Chen's metrics are nothing to get overly excited about - 4.24 FIP, 4.09 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA, but his 3.53 xFIP away from home supports our investment on the Marlins.
Chen garnered a 3.86 FIP in the month of May with a solid 8.36 K/9 rate (15.5% K-BB%). The southpaw should have success against a scuffling San Diego lineup that is averaging just 4.0 runs per game this season (.237 AVG.; .289 OBP; .663 OPS), including 3.8 runs per game at home (.233 AVG.; .286 OBP; .644 OPS). Technically speaking, Miami is a profitable 9-2 in its last 11 games versus National League West foes and 4-1 in Chen's last five starts with four days of rest.
In contrast, the Padres are a money-burning 1-9 in their last ten games versus teams with a winning record, including 1-6 at home. Take Miami in Game 1 of this series and invest with confidence.
Rangers +114
Texas is worth a look here as they are showing great value as a decently priced road dog against the A's. The Rangers will have to turn to Cesar Ramos after it was announced that Yu Darvish wouldn't be able to go. Ramos isn't a bad option to turn to, as he's got a 2.76 ERA in 3 starts this season. Oakland will send out the inconsistent Sean Manaea, who has a 6.20 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 8 starts. Texas is going to be highly motivated after getting swept by the A's last time they visited Oakland, plus the Rangers are playing the much better baseball at the moment.
Milwaukee Brewers + over San Francisco Giants
With expectations for 2016 that were extremely low the Brewers have been a pleasant surprise, only three games below .500 and creeping into the wild card race. Improvement in the pitching staff has been a primary cause and Chase Anderson is central in that regard. Anderson is 3-1 in his last five starts and he has allowed just 10 earned runs over his last six starts walking only four batters in that run as well. Anderson isn't a big swing and miss producer but his command has been sharp and he has minimized the home run damage of late after allowing eight home runs in his first six starts of the season. The Milwaukee bullpen also owns an ERA below 3.00 in the past 10 games and AT&T Park is favorable for pitching.
The Giants had a late night game last night and Matt Cain is certainly hard to count on. He has just one win in 10 starts this season last starting on May 27 following a hamstring strain. In the last 10 games the Giants are batting .192 as a team and they have topped four runs just once in the last seven games. Cain has allowed three or more runs in half of his starts this season and he is getting barely six strikeouts per nine innings as he isn't close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. San Francisco has needed a lot of bullpen innings the past two days and coming off back-to-back wins over the 2015 NL Champions this is a Brewers team playing with confidence despite still being priced as a much lesser squad in the NL picture.
-- The Angels are 0-10 O/U since Sep 09, 2015 at home off a home game in which they allowed 6+ runs.
GOLDEN STATE -5? -110 over Cleveland
We are playing this one from a reactionary measure, as we have seen this market plummet two points toward the home favorite as a result of the suspension to Warriors forward Draymond Green for Game Five. Green picked up a flagrant foul in Game Four and a subsequent suspension, which has led much of the market to believe that Cleveland can orchestrate the upset in his absence. We are by no means concerned about the absence of Draymond Green in this contest because the Warriors have shown they know how to win without key players. Look no further than the display of supremacy by the Warriors against the Rockets and Trailblazers when they were without the services of their MVP point guard Stephen Curry. The Warriors responded with guard Klay Thompson picking up the slack and emerging as the chief scorer for Golden State. Despite their accolades, achievements and talent, Golden State employs a ?next-man? up mentality and with Green being forced to sit Game Five, we can expect an enhanced role for both Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. Both Barnes and Iguodala are playmakers and battle-tested veterans that know how to make impact plays when they are needed most. While some may showcase some concern about whether or not Golden State can curtail King James, we show no trepidation here because Cleveland has bigger fish to fry with ?The Splash Brothers? leading a deluge of three-pointers that has propelled this team to success all season. Furthermore, Cleveland (or anyone else for that matter) has not been able to solve these two.
King James can score 40 points and perhaps he may be undeterred a bit more with Green having to watch the game in a suit and tie, but Cleveland will not be afforded much success if they cannot find a way to quell the onslaught of Curry and Thompson. Besides that, LeBron is the best player in the league when his team has a 20-point lead. You know our stance on playing value and the dangers of getting behind teams when there is a market overreaction. The Green revelation feeds the James narrative more but let?s not forget that Golden State has lost just three times at the Oracle all season long and they have always been successful in putting teams to bed when they get an elimination game at home. This one should be no different. Look for Golden State to wrap up their second consecutive NBA title tonight and to do so with an exclamation point against a weary and battered Cleveland Cavaliers (Risking 2,2 units to win 2).
Cincinnati -103 over ATLANTA
7:05 PM EST. Not exactly the marquee game on today?s menu but they all pay the same and when Atlanta is favored, it?s always worth having a close look at the dog. Cincinnati has seven wins in 27 road games. Rookie Daniel Wright has made three starts and brings a 7.20 ERA and 2.00 WHIP into this one. Combine the Reds? road record with Wright?s awful numbers and you get an underpriced pooch so let us break it down for you. Daniel Wright?s first ever MLB start occurred in Los Angeles. He went 5.1 innings and allowed seven hits and three earned runs. Two of those hits were bloop singles. He walked one and struck out four. Wright then made two more starts, one at Coors Field and one at Great American Ballpark against the Nationals. Against Washington, Wright lasted 1.1 innings. He surrendered four hits and three earned runs before getting the hook. However, only one of those runs was earned due to two Cincinnati errors. In total, Wright faced nine Washington batters and he induced six grounders. In 10 innings covering three starts, Wright has walked one batter and struck out six. Wright has a strong, durable frame and has spent most of his career as a starter. He works aggressively with an 88-94 mph fastball and complements it with a good curveball and change-up that features late sinking action. Wright is adept at pitch sequencing and generally works consistently ahead in the count. He may not have plus stuff or an elite fastball, but he has enough ingredients to be a viable option when taking back a tag against a Braves? squad that owns the league's worst home OPS at .588.
Atlanta is coming off a three-game weekend series against the Cubs. The Braves drew over 30,000 fans to each game and while Atlanta lost two of three, crowds like that bring excitement and intensity. For Atlanta, things get back to normal here, as they will likely draw about 12,000 fans for this game to the stadium will look rather empty. It?s a letdown spot for the Braves and now Aaron Blair will be favored for the first time in his short career.
Blair is a starter that we?re watching closely. He impressed in the minors with his aggressive nature and ability to pitch downhill to keep the ball on the ground but has not brought that with him to this level. Blair is falling behind almost every hitter he faces and he?s walking more than he?s whiffing. In 35 frames over eight starts, Blair has walked 21 batters while strikeout out 20. His first-pitch strike rate of 56% is weak and that rate was 45% in his last start. He now brings a 1.84 WHIP into this game as a result of falling behind hitters. He?s allowed 44 hits in 35 innings for an oppBA of .317. He?s also 0-3 at home with an ERA/xERA split of 6.08/5.94. There are risky favorites in this league and then there are risky favorites like Aaron Blair. Regardless of outcome, pulling the trigger here is a must. (This one is unofficial, as we have not pulled trigger yet, as we wait to see where the line goes).
Minnesota +113 over L.A. ANGELS
10:05 PM EST. Ricky Nolasco is 2-4 with an ERA of 5.17 and he pitches for a team that is playing .300 ball. Naturally the prices on a combination like this are cheaper than a filet-o-fish combo, which makes us buyers. Nolasco is coming on big time. He has 29 K?s against just eight walks over his last 33 innings. His xERA of 3.71 is far below his actual 5.17 ERA. Nolasco has been known as a chronic underachiever for years. He once signed a three-year, 26M deal with the Marlins but more often than not, he failed to deliver the goods. He has earned a reputation as a pitcher who could never quite deliver on the solid skills he displayed year after year but now he?s pitching with no pressure in a relaxed atmosphere. We may not have heard the last from Nolasco, as he?ll be a prime trade deadline acquisition for interested contenders looking for depth. Over his first 12 starts, Nolasco has reversed a three-year slide in K?s, while his control has remained very good. Because of his well-earned reputation of a skills maven that for some reason could never find the results to match, Nolasco has held a ?don?t touch? status for several years and while he may not thrive ever again, he is absolutely worth backing against Jared Weaver when offered a price.
We have not had the luxury of attacking Weaver this year because that ship sailed a long time ago. He?s now a chronic underdog and he?s not worth backing in that role either. Weaver has more wins this year (5) than an entire slew of other MLB pitchers, which is rather remarkable when you consider that he has less pitching skills than most outfielders. Weaver has started 12 games. He?s been taken deep in 11 of those games and has now been tagged for 16 jacks overall. Over his last six starts, Weaver has been taken yard 11 times and has allowed two HR?s or more in six of his last eight starts. Weaver?s xERA told us we were living on the wire with him for years and it finally snapped. His ERA of 5.56 is now in line with his xERA of 5.88. With fastball velocity that resembles a changeup (Weaver?s fastball is 82 MPH), batters are feasting. Now an aging extreme fly-ball pitcher with weak velocity, Weaver is not someone to bank on ever again when favored. He?s pitching for one reason and one reason only and that?s because the Angels have committed 18M to him this season. If we lose this wager, so be it but in regards to Jared Weaver, the hypothetical Jenga blocks have fallen. (Risking 2 units @ +113).
Detroit -106 over CHICAGO
8:10 PM EST. Matt Boyd makes just his fourth start of the year. After three starts, Boyd is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has a BB/K split of 9/17 in 21 frames. Boyd went 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA in 57 innings last year for the Jays and Tigers combined. He excelled across two minor-league levels before his call-up but MLB hitters were far more wise to this finesse lefty's tricks. While we have our concerns regarding Boyd, he was upside for sure and he?s a much better option than James Shields.
Ya think Shields is nervous about this start? Probably not because Shields? has been around for years and is living the dream. The person nervous about this start is the exec that signed off on the deal to pay this stiff 27M of the roughly 45M left on his contract. In other words, the Padres are paying Shields 18M or so to get the f**k out of town. Shields? made his White Sox debut last week against the Nationals and was booed off the field after allowing eight hits and seven runs in two innings. The game before that, his last as a Padre, Shields? was tagged for eight hits and 10 runs in Seattle in 2.2 innings. That?s 16 hits and 17 runs over his last 4.2 innings and someone on this planet is being paid to find a guy like this? Amazing. We?re not playing results here, as we told you about Shields? inevitable demise three years ago when he was a Royal. Metrics tell is when a pitcher has lost his stuff or when there are troubling signs. Shields? skills are still in a steady decline and there is no rebound in sight. His velocity is down, his swing and miss rate was at 4% in his last start and his fly-ball rate continues to rise. Shields? posted a 4.28 ERA before coming over here against National League hitters and no DH in an extreme pitchers park and he now goes to the AL with a DH included at a hitter?s park. James Shields is no longer working his wizardry against the regression gods and anytime he?s involved in an evenly priced game, we are going to fade him instantly. (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Philadelphia +167 over TORONTO
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays are warming up in a big way with their big bats and now the bandwagon is filling up again. Toronto did some heavy offensive damage this past weekend, scoring 25 runs in the three-game sweep over the Orioles. Toronto just finished a slew of games against Boston, Baltimore, New York Yankees and Detroit. In fact, take out three against the Tigers and the Jays have played 16 of their past 19 games against their three biggest AL East rivals. They get a breather here with the Phillies coming to town and it?s just not a good spot to be laying big weight in. Furthermore, the knuckleball is not a pitch to be spotting a big price with either.
R.A. Dickey brings his knuckleball to this start and there is not a lot to be said about it. The knuckleball is either dancing or it?s not. It?s not a pitch you can sit on either because even if a hitter knows it?s coming, it still flutters and could end up anywhere in or out of the strike-zone. Derek Jeter once said about the knuckleball after another frustrating day against it, ?I don?t think HE (referring to the pitcher) even knows where it?s going?. That about sums it up for the knuckler. It?s a freak pitch thrown by guys that were or are desperate to make it to the big leagues. There isn?t a person on Earth that can predict how the knuckler will hold up from game to game but when it doesn?t hold up, the pitching lines are ugly. With a knuckleball pitcher, there is no such thing as ?working through your bad stuff?. Knucklers either get whacked or they do not.
We would much rather roll the dice with a solid pitcher taking back a big tag than on a knuckleball pitcher spotting a big tag. Jerad Eickhoff has eight pure quality starts in 12 tries. He has outstanding control (15 BB in 73 innings) to go along with a nifty 62 K?s in those 73 frames. Eickhoff is an unheralded pre-peak pitcher who owns a legit 3.68 ERA that has the full support of his 3.65 ERA. Eickhoff?s swing and miss rate was 13% in his last start. It is 11% over his last five starts after being 9% the previous five. Jared Eickhoff is getting better with each passing month. He?s a student of the game that absorbs everything he sees and uses it to improve. His determination and pitching IQ is a joy to watch and while there will be bumps in the road, this kid has too much talent and determination to be priced in this range against a knuckleball pitcher. (Risking 2 units).
