07:10 PM [956] TOTAL u8EV (CHI CUBS vrs CIN REDS) ( J ARRIETA -R / D STRAILY -R )
09:40 PM [958] ARI DBACKS -145 ( V VELASQUEZ -R / R RAY -L )
07:10 PM [965] CLE INDIANS -135 ( T BAUER -R / J GANT -R )
08:40 PM [969] TOTAL o11-123 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs COL ROCKIES) ( M ESTRADA -R / J GRAY -R )
1 unit bet pays 8.89 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-88, -15.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
another one last night - sho enuf, yesterday's 15-1 five teamer lost by one leg. The biggest chalk in the parlay - Kershaw losing his first game in two months! yes, I did think of taking Pitt, even posted reasons for doing so, but decided just silly going against Kershaw's record...But Kershaw was the lone evening game, I should have hedged my parlay. But got too lazy...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Gonzalez, the team's 2013 first-round pick (No. 23 overall), is 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 14 starts with Round Rock this season. Despite the high ERA, he carried a 3.90 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) with the Rangers last year. He also threw 1 2/3 innings in the American League Division Series against the Blue Jays. "This is familiarity. He stepped up big for us when he first came up last year, and just the overall body of work," manager Jeff Banister said. "It kind of plays into the philosophy of a three-pitch-or-less mentality, get the ball on the ground. Given the overall choices, I felt like he was the best fit for us right now."
I have to hand it to Daniel Mengden. He showed up with the greatest mustache I'll never be able to grow and has given the A's three solid outings, with his most recent being 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks against the Brew Crew. Should we expect him to keep it up? Stuff wise I'm on the fence. His Curveball is legit and his favorite pitch to turn to with two-strikes and it's getting results with a 21%+ whiff rate thus far. He can gear up his heater to 94/95 when he needs to, and he's locating it well with some slight cut action to it...but I'm a bit concerned that its steady 91/92 isn't going to be enough as his Slider and Changeup aren't good enough. He's a tantalizing guy - just in fantasy, I swear - but he isn't on the same level as the "sea of upside". I'd rather have Bauer and Reed,
Trevor Bauer - 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. There are a few differences between Bauer of 2015 and Bauer of 2016. First is a boost in velocity - about 1.5 mph extra from last season - that has increased his whiff rate on his Fastball and Changeup dramatically. Bauer is also starting to use his Curveball more, which is his primary strikeout pitch, and mixing in his Changeup more often, as he switched his Slider to a Cutter, while throwing it less. What I'm getting at is there is discernable change between this year and last and it's clearly working. Am I worried about his history of inconsistency and what should be higher walk rates? I am, especially since we saw this same velocity two years ago. I won't also ignore that this outing was against the Rays. But hey, he's clearly changed himself for the better - how much better is still up for debate
Marco Estrada - 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Another QS from Estrada - 4.50 ERA be damned! - and he's still playing that fun game of allowing few hits but adding some walks to make it interesting. Gotta love that K production, though. For the record, he was pulled a little early for precaution with a "tight back". I'm not worried about it.
Sonny Gray - 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. So Gray is now 3-for-3 against poor teams, and 0-1 against a good offense. I could just write that off and be done - I am already late with today's edition- but nay, you guys deserve better. His biggest issue before his injury was an inability to throw his Slider/Curve for a strike. We're talking like 20% levels of incompetence. Now Gray is around the 40% mark and it's fantastic.
While the Toronto Blue Jays' Marco Estrada has done a good job of limiting homers, especially as a fly ball pitcher, do you really want to tempt fate in Coors Field?
Similarly, Jon Gray of the Colorado Rockies might be an option outside of Coors Field, but with the powerful Blue Jays flying into town, he's too risky.
Jake Arrieta - 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. This is the fifth time all season that Arrieta has walked four batters, which is pretty dang shocking after a season sitting sub 2.00 BB/9. I am a little worried about Arrieta, but he's still preventing hard contact at an unreal rate (sub 22%!) with elite strikeout numbers and a 56.5% groundball rate. I don't think this is an injury issue - it could be simply that people are laying off his pitches out of the zone more (O-Swing down four points to 30.2% this season) - and I wouldn't make any changes.
Matt Shoemaker - 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. So two of his ER, three of his hits, and one walk came in the 8th inning. That would have been 1 ER and just six baserunners in seven innings. Dammit Scioscia, why did you have to get greedy?
Play: DBacks-131
The early public money is all over the Arizona Diamondbacks when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and for a very good reason. The Phillies have lost 11 of their past 13 games and were swept over four games by the D'Backs home at Citizens Bank Park two weeks ago.
Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.65 ERA) will take the ball for the Phillies tonight as he makes his return to the mound after missing 2 1/2 weeks with a strained right biceps. Velasquez has posted a 5.79 ERA in six road starts this season and I don't exepct him to be sharp here coming straight off the DL.
Arizona turns to left-hander Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.59) who recorded seven strikeouts through six innings of two-run ball at Philadelphia on June 17. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Their .226 batting average against southpaws is the second worst mark in the major leagues and their .279 on base percentage the very worst.
The D'Backs are coming off back-to-back losses to Colorado, but they scored a total of 30 runs while splitting the series in the Rocky Mountains and they set a franchise record for a four-game set with 56 hits.
Play: Indians -168
The Braves (26-49) picked up a 5-2 over the Mets Sunday and now look to do battle with Cleveland (44-30) possessing a 4-1 record against the Indians in Atlanta. However, the Indians are red hot bringing the longest current winning streak in the majors 9 games after beating Detroit yesterday. Atlanta uses RHP Gant (1-2, 4.45) who has three starts this season only one was quality statistically. He is 0-1 with 7.36 ERA at home, while facing the Marlins last time out in Miami going 5-2/3 innings surrendering 7 hits and 3 runs. He opposes very consistent RHP Bauer (5-2, 3.20) of Cleveland. Bauer has a super 3-1 (2.84) record on the road, while throwing 24 innings last three with a 1.50 ERA. He has crafted 6 straight quality starts. The Braves are just 11-29 at home, the Indians 21-18 on the road. Cleveland comes winning 4 straight interleague games, 6-1 game #1 of a series. They are 5-1 L6 on the road versus a losing team. Atlanta brings a 0-6 record against RHP in interleague tests and an 8-18 mark vs. a winning road unit.
Braves +1? -126
Even though the Indians have been hot (9 straight wins), they are running into a Braves team that has won 8 of their last 11 games. One of those three Atlanta losses came by just a single run. The Braves have been getting fantastic pitching as they have given up an average of only 7 hits per game in their last 10 games. The Indians will struggle to get any type of margin in this game as John Gant will be toeing the rubber for the Braves. The right-hander has settled in nicely in his last two starts after struggling in his first start at home this season. He finally gets a chance to atone for that effort tonight in front of the home fans and Gant comes in having allowed only 9 hits in his last two starts which totaled 12+ innings. The Indians Trevor Bauer is off of a complete game effort in his most recent start and that was at home. Now he's back on the road where the Indians are 2-3 in his starts this season and the right-hander may labor after the complete game against the Rays. Cleveland is a money burning 4-6 as road favorite in a range of -125 to -150 this season. Where we see the best value here is with the run line as we can get the +1.5 runs simply by laying a small price. The Braves have been playing much better baseball the past two weeks. We'll take the home team Atlanta Braves with the added value of the +1.5 runs on the run line Monday evening.
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Over 8
Tampa Bay's offense is bad....except when it comes to left-handed starters. The Rays are hitting .274 in those games putting up an average of 5.2 runs.. They have gone over in 11 of 18 of those games and should be able to touch up Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty has a 6.41 ERA in five starts for Boston giving up 20 runs and 28 hits in just over 26 innings. Last year Rodriguez allowed six runs and 12 hits in 11 innings against Tampa and both of those outings went over and came at home. Blake Snell is looking for his first win of the season. The southpaw is facing his stiffest challenge of the season in Boston. The Red Sox entered Sunday's game hitting .288 as a team and .286 in night games. Tampa Bay's bullpen had a rough series in Baltimore. These two have gone over in two of their three meetings this season. I think this one should do the same.
Rangers at Yankees
Pick: Over
The Rangers have now gone OVER in in three of their last five, with one push tossed in just for good measure. With Gonzalez on the hill today for the Rangers, they have also gone over in four of his five starts on natural turf. The Yankees have also proved a good over team of late, evidenced by their 6-2 mark in their last eight games. They are also 3-1-1 O/U in Nova's last five starts on grass. In addition, the Yankees are 6-2-1 O/U in Nova's last nine home starts. Nova has been hit hard in recent starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last nine innings and 18 runs over his last four starts (21.1 innings). Texas has an excellent hitting team and that will be bad news for the Yankees starter today.
Play: Royals -108
The Royals got back on track yesterday, earning a much-needed 6-1 victory in their series finale vs. Houston. They should carry some positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. the Cards.
Duffy doesn't generally go deep into games and he isn't about to win any Cy Young awards. All the same, he's been pretty solid. In eight starts, he's 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.082 WHIP, striking out 50, while walking only 11, in just over 40 innings. In 13 career appearances against the NL, he's got a 3.13 ERA.
Note that the Royals bullpen, which has been pretty good overall, got a bit of a break yesterday, also much-needed, as Kennedy went seven complete.
Wainwright has certainly been a lot better of late. However, he's still got a 4.73 ERA on the season, including an ugly 5.74 mark in eight road starts.
Duffy last faced the Cards back in 2014. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing only a single hit, en route to a 6-0 victory. With the Royals an outstanding 49-18 (+28.4) their past 67 home games when the line ranged from +100 to -125, take a second look at KC in this one.
Play: Cardinals +111
The Royals are off a 6-1 win yesterday but had previously lost 4 straight games. The Cardinals are also off of a win yesterday and that was their 4th in their last 6 games as they snapped a mini two-game skid. With the Cards looking to wrap up an 8-game road trip the right way as they start this two-game mini-series at Kansas City, I feel we are getting excellent line value here as they take on a slumping Royals team that has lost 4 of 5. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals and he has produced 4 straight quality starts (at least 6 innings and no more than 3 earned runs) and now has 6 quality outings in his last 7. St Louis is 6-2 in his 8 road starts this season. He'll be opposed by Kansas City's Danny Duffy who has "cooled off" after a strong recent stretch. In his last two starts Duffy has walked 6 and allowed 8 hits (including 4 homers) for a 1.45 WHIP in these outings. The Royals have lost each of his last two starts and he's facing Wainwright who is 4-1 in his career starts against Kansas City. Keep in mind that the Royals started the season 12-6 but have a losing record since then. Conversely the Cards are on a 15-11 run since late May. They also are 9-4 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Look for the Cardinals to improve to 6-2 in Monday games this season while the Royals drop to 3-6 on Mondays.
St. Louis +106 over KANSAS CITY
Danny Duffy is breaking out?again ... Duffy has done this before. He posted a 2.53 ERA in his breakout 2014 season, but underwhelming skills that year made his 2015 dud somewhat unsurprising. Duffy's at it again in 2016 with a 3.38 ERA. Does this breakout have more legs than the last one? Not really. While there are several encouraging signs, there are also some concerns that MLB hitters catch onto real quick. Duffy has 71 K?s in 59 innings. We're typically skeptical of a major strikeout rate spike like this but Duffy's fastball velocity is up nearly two mph and his swing and miss rate has exploded. Looks like Duffy can certainly keep a K-per-inning + pace. Duffy's impressive performance comes with plenty of support, as he's throwing more strikes, generating more whiffs, and doing it with more velocity. Duffy's changeup, which has produced a 19% swing and miss rate this year, has been an increasingly used weapon as well (9% usage in 2014-15; 15% in 2016). We need to urge caution given the 59-innings sample size. We also must point out that Duffy is not durable. He started the year in the pen for his first 17 appearances. Many of his K?s happened when he was facing three batters an outing. He threw 102 pitches in his last start in just four innings. That suggests he has trouble ?putting away? hitters and that occurred against the Mets. He has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any of his starts and he?s only made it past five innings in four starts. Duffy also has a 33%/47% groundball/fly-ball ratio. Incidentally, the Cardinals .786 OPS on the road is the third best in MLB. Danny Duffy's numbers are pretty but they are also deceiving because so many of his good stats have come in relief only.
Adam Wainwright had ace status for years but this market is quite aware of the slide he?s been on for well over a year. Wainwright rallied from an April Achilles injury to pitch out of the pen late in the second half of last year but it was too small to matter (8 IP including post-season). Wainwright got off to a rocky start this year too with a 4.73 ERA after his first eight starts through May 12. We were quick to point out Wainwright?s skills decline but we?re also quick to point out when a correction to the good is forthcoming. Wainwright finally has his strength back and he is looking once again like an ace. Wainwright wasn?t striking out many batters early on so he only has 65 K?s in 91 innings but he has whiffed 30 over his past 34 innings. That comes with support of his 12% swing and miss rate over that span. Wainwright?s groundball rate is increasing too practically every start. That rate was at 40% in the first month of the season but it is up to 50% over his last five starts. Adam Wainwright?s xERA over his last five starts is 3.19. That puts him in elite company. His actual ERA over that span is even better at 2.94. Adam Wainwright has his skills and confidence back.
Play: Kansas City Royals -115
Danny Duffy is quietly becoming a legitimate ace in Kansas City's starting rotation. The talented southpaw is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight starts this season, including going 1-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his last three outings. Duffy currently ranks in the Top 10 in first-pitch strike rate, contact rate and in-zone contact rate. Those rankings indicate two things - Duffy is getting ahead in the count and batters are struggling to square up on his pitches in the zone.
Duffy has thrown 71% strikes through his first eight starts, while allowing 70.1% contact. The lefty is struggled recently, giving up a combined 4 home runs in his last two outings. However, Duffy is walking no one (6.7% BB%) and boasts a 15.9% swinging strike rate this season. His strikeout rate has also climbed in each of the past three months: 9.0 K/9 in April; 10.53 K/9 in May; and 11.89 K/9 in June.
Since entering the league in 2011, Duffy has posted a career 57% first-pitch strike rate, which is well below the MLB average of 60-61% over that span. Duffy's first-pitch strike rate of 63.9% this season is a significant breakthrough in that the difference between 1-0 and 0-1 pitch counts is 223 points of OPS!
For Duffy, it has been an incredible 300 points over his career! Duffy's fastball has been electric, yielding a .590 OPS in 2016 as compared to .778 last season and his .725 career rate. His slider has been equally impressive, garnering a strikeout rate exceeding 50% with a velocity topping out at 4 mph faster than in prior years.
In short, Duffy is posting a career-best Strike%, K%, BB% and Contact% as a starter in 2016. The 27-year-old is also supported by solid metrics: 3.90 FIP, 3.59 xFIP and a 3.11 SIERA. In the month of May, Duffy posted a 2.75 ERA and 2.73 FIP, together with a 29.5% K%, 3.9% BB% and 25.5% K-BB%. Duffy is also 1-0 with a career 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus the Cardinals, while the Royals are 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts and 4-1 in his last five home outings versus teams with a winning record.
Kansas City also possesses a very talented bullpen that owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, including posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, St. Louis relievers have struggled against American League bats, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 27 interleague innings this season. St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has struggled away from home where he owns a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2016.
Wainwright's 5.02 FIP, 4.63 xFIP and 9.0% K-BB% further substantiate his struggles on foreign soil. Finally, Kansas City is 37-15 in its last 52 home games, 42-16 in its last 58 home games versus right-handed starters, 20-7 in its last 27 interleague games versus right-handed starters, 11-3 in its last 14 games off a win and 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts. Take the Royals at an excellent price and invest with confidence.
COLORADO -1? +185 over Toronto
Jonathan Gray is coming off a game in the Bronx in which the Yankees won, 9-8. Gray only allowed three hits in four innings but one of those hits was a grand-slam. He uncharacteristically walked five batters and got the hook early after throwing 80 pitches. Gray is now 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA after 12 starts. Thing is, Gray has a 57% strand rate. That is the lowest strand rate in the majors among qualified starters and it is a hugely luck-driven stat. Gray comes in with a BB/K split of 24/75 in 69 innings to go along with a 50% groundball rate. His swing and miss rate is 12% but it is 13% over his last five starts after he struck out 36 batters in 37 frames. Gray?s ERA over his last five starts is 3.13 and his overall xERA is 3.30. With top-tier punch-outs and a groundball tilt, Gray is a budding ace who won't come cheap much longer. That he?s a dog at home to Marco Estrada is extraordinary.
Do we really have to go over this again? Of course we do and we love it only Estrada is getting worse, not better. In his last start, his fly-ball rate was 75%. We?ll see how that plays out at Coors. In his last start against Arizona, Estrada only allowed two hits in six innings but one was a jack and six balls were warning track shots.
That out recorded by Kevin Pillar in CF will go down in the box score the same way as a soft roller to first base. It?s an out. Thing is, Estrada has been recording outs like that all season long, not to mention all of last year too. At some point, those hard hit balls will NOT be hit at people. Instead, they will find the gaps. Estrada?s velocity is also down a couple of ticks to 87.8 MPH. There has never been a pitcher in the history of this game that has ridden a changeup to the type of success that Estrada has. That?s his weapon of choice and guys go up there trying to hit the cover off the ball because it?s so juicy. Most of the time batters just miss hitting it out. Estrada comes in with the luckiest BABIP in the majors at .183. That?s 135 points lower than Noah Syndergaard?s .318 BABIP. It?s also 80 points lower than Clayton Kershaw?s and 104 points lower than Jake Arrieta?s. Estrada?s 80% strand rate is doing a lot of the heavy lifting too.
Most ordinary pitchers are helped out by some good and bad luck. They?ll have a low hit rate but a low strand rate to even it out. They?ll have a high strand rate but a high BABIP to even it out. There are many luck-driven stats in baseball. It?s a stats driven game but Marco Estrada has taken one pitch, the changeup and turned it into months of incredibly good luck. No luck-driven stat has worked against him. He has a low hit rate, a high strand rate, a remarkably low BABIP rate, he walks too many guys that don?t come back to score, he is often behind in the count and he has the highest fly-ball rate in baseball among qualified starters. These aren?t skills that equal up to a 2.70 ERA. So while guys like Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler salivate all over themselves when talking about Estrada, we?ll continue to fade this less than ordinary pitcher because once the floodgates open, it?s going to be a tsunami. Those fly-balls to the warning track will not be outs in Colorado.
09:40 PM [958] ARI DBACKS -145 ( V VELASQUEZ -R / R RAY -L )
07:10 PM [965] CLE INDIANS -135 ( T BAUER -R / J GANT -R )
08:40 PM [969] TOTAL o11-123 (TOR BLUE JAYS vrs COL ROCKIES) ( M ESTRADA -R / J GRAY -R )
1 unit bet pays 8.89 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 9-88, -15.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
another one last night - sho enuf, yesterday's 15-1 five teamer lost by one leg. The biggest chalk in the parlay - Kershaw losing his first game in two months! yes, I did think of taking Pitt, even posted reasons for doing so, but decided just silly going against Kershaw's record...But Kershaw was the lone evening game, I should have hedged my parlay. But got too lazy...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Gonzalez, the team's 2013 first-round pick (No. 23 overall), is 3-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 14 starts with Round Rock this season. Despite the high ERA, he carried a 3.90 ERA in 14 appearances (10 starts) with the Rangers last year. He also threw 1 2/3 innings in the American League Division Series against the Blue Jays. "This is familiarity. He stepped up big for us when he first came up last year, and just the overall body of work," manager Jeff Banister said. "It kind of plays into the philosophy of a three-pitch-or-less mentality, get the ball on the ground. Given the overall choices, I felt like he was the best fit for us right now."
I have to hand it to Daniel Mengden. He showed up with the greatest mustache I'll never be able to grow and has given the A's three solid outings, with his most recent being 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks against the Brew Crew. Should we expect him to keep it up? Stuff wise I'm on the fence. His Curveball is legit and his favorite pitch to turn to with two-strikes and it's getting results with a 21%+ whiff rate thus far. He can gear up his heater to 94/95 when he needs to, and he's locating it well with some slight cut action to it...but I'm a bit concerned that its steady 91/92 isn't going to be enough as his Slider and Changeup aren't good enough. He's a tantalizing guy - just in fantasy, I swear - but he isn't on the same level as the "sea of upside". I'd rather have Bauer and Reed,
Trevor Bauer - 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. There are a few differences between Bauer of 2015 and Bauer of 2016. First is a boost in velocity - about 1.5 mph extra from last season - that has increased his whiff rate on his Fastball and Changeup dramatically. Bauer is also starting to use his Curveball more, which is his primary strikeout pitch, and mixing in his Changeup more often, as he switched his Slider to a Cutter, while throwing it less. What I'm getting at is there is discernable change between this year and last and it's clearly working. Am I worried about his history of inconsistency and what should be higher walk rates? I am, especially since we saw this same velocity two years ago. I won't also ignore that this outing was against the Rays. But hey, he's clearly changed himself for the better - how much better is still up for debate
Marco Estrada - 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks. Another QS from Estrada - 4.50 ERA be damned! - and he's still playing that fun game of allowing few hits but adding some walks to make it interesting. Gotta love that K production, though. For the record, he was pulled a little early for precaution with a "tight back". I'm not worried about it.
Sonny Gray - 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. So Gray is now 3-for-3 against poor teams, and 0-1 against a good offense. I could just write that off and be done - I am already late with today's edition- but nay, you guys deserve better. His biggest issue before his injury was an inability to throw his Slider/Curve for a strike. We're talking like 20% levels of incompetence. Now Gray is around the 40% mark and it's fantastic.
While the Toronto Blue Jays' Marco Estrada has done a good job of limiting homers, especially as a fly ball pitcher, do you really want to tempt fate in Coors Field?
Similarly, Jon Gray of the Colorado Rockies might be an option outside of Coors Field, but with the powerful Blue Jays flying into town, he's too risky.
Jake Arrieta - 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks. This is the fifth time all season that Arrieta has walked four batters, which is pretty dang shocking after a season sitting sub 2.00 BB/9. I am a little worried about Arrieta, but he's still preventing hard contact at an unreal rate (sub 22%!) with elite strikeout numbers and a 56.5% groundball rate. I don't think this is an injury issue - it could be simply that people are laying off his pitches out of the zone more (O-Swing down four points to 30.2% this season) - and I wouldn't make any changes.
Matt Shoemaker - 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. So two of his ER, three of his hits, and one walk came in the 8th inning. That would have been 1 ER and just six baserunners in seven innings. Dammit Scioscia, why did you have to get greedy?
Play: DBacks-131
The early public money is all over the Arizona Diamondbacks when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and for a very good reason. The Phillies have lost 11 of their past 13 games and were swept over four games by the D'Backs home at Citizens Bank Park two weeks ago.
Vince Velasquez (5-2, 3.65 ERA) will take the ball for the Phillies tonight as he makes his return to the mound after missing 2 1/2 weeks with a strained right biceps. Velasquez has posted a 5.79 ERA in six road starts this season and I don't exepct him to be sharp here coming straight off the DL.
Arizona turns to left-hander Robbie Ray (4-6, 4.59) who recorded seven strikeouts through six innings of two-run ball at Philadelphia on June 17. The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter. Their .226 batting average against southpaws is the second worst mark in the major leagues and their .279 on base percentage the very worst.
The D'Backs are coming off back-to-back losses to Colorado, but they scored a total of 30 runs while splitting the series in the Rocky Mountains and they set a franchise record for a four-game set with 56 hits.
Play: Indians -168
The Braves (26-49) picked up a 5-2 over the Mets Sunday and now look to do battle with Cleveland (44-30) possessing a 4-1 record against the Indians in Atlanta. However, the Indians are red hot bringing the longest current winning streak in the majors 9 games after beating Detroit yesterday. Atlanta uses RHP Gant (1-2, 4.45) who has three starts this season only one was quality statistically. He is 0-1 with 7.36 ERA at home, while facing the Marlins last time out in Miami going 5-2/3 innings surrendering 7 hits and 3 runs. He opposes very consistent RHP Bauer (5-2, 3.20) of Cleveland. Bauer has a super 3-1 (2.84) record on the road, while throwing 24 innings last three with a 1.50 ERA. He has crafted 6 straight quality starts. The Braves are just 11-29 at home, the Indians 21-18 on the road. Cleveland comes winning 4 straight interleague games, 6-1 game #1 of a series. They are 5-1 L6 on the road versus a losing team. Atlanta brings a 0-6 record against RHP in interleague tests and an 8-18 mark vs. a winning road unit.
Braves +1? -126
Even though the Indians have been hot (9 straight wins), they are running into a Braves team that has won 8 of their last 11 games. One of those three Atlanta losses came by just a single run. The Braves have been getting fantastic pitching as they have given up an average of only 7 hits per game in their last 10 games. The Indians will struggle to get any type of margin in this game as John Gant will be toeing the rubber for the Braves. The right-hander has settled in nicely in his last two starts after struggling in his first start at home this season. He finally gets a chance to atone for that effort tonight in front of the home fans and Gant comes in having allowed only 9 hits in his last two starts which totaled 12+ innings. The Indians Trevor Bauer is off of a complete game effort in his most recent start and that was at home. Now he's back on the road where the Indians are 2-3 in his starts this season and the right-hander may labor after the complete game against the Rays. Cleveland is a money burning 4-6 as road favorite in a range of -125 to -150 this season. Where we see the best value here is with the run line as we can get the +1.5 runs simply by laying a small price. The Braves have been playing much better baseball the past two weeks. We'll take the home team Atlanta Braves with the added value of the +1.5 runs on the run line Monday evening.
Red Sox vs. Rays
Play: Over 8
Tampa Bay's offense is bad....except when it comes to left-handed starters. The Rays are hitting .274 in those games putting up an average of 5.2 runs.. They have gone over in 11 of 18 of those games and should be able to touch up Eduardo Rodriguez. The lefty has a 6.41 ERA in five starts for Boston giving up 20 runs and 28 hits in just over 26 innings. Last year Rodriguez allowed six runs and 12 hits in 11 innings against Tampa and both of those outings went over and came at home. Blake Snell is looking for his first win of the season. The southpaw is facing his stiffest challenge of the season in Boston. The Red Sox entered Sunday's game hitting .288 as a team and .286 in night games. Tampa Bay's bullpen had a rough series in Baltimore. These two have gone over in two of their three meetings this season. I think this one should do the same.
Rangers at Yankees
Pick: Over
The Rangers have now gone OVER in in three of their last five, with one push tossed in just for good measure. With Gonzalez on the hill today for the Rangers, they have also gone over in four of his five starts on natural turf. The Yankees have also proved a good over team of late, evidenced by their 6-2 mark in their last eight games. They are also 3-1-1 O/U in Nova's last five starts on grass. In addition, the Yankees are 6-2-1 O/U in Nova's last nine home starts. Nova has been hit hard in recent starts, allowing 10 earned runs over his last nine innings and 18 runs over his last four starts (21.1 innings). Texas has an excellent hitting team and that will be bad news for the Yankees starter today.
Play: Royals -108
The Royals got back on track yesterday, earning a much-needed 6-1 victory in their series finale vs. Houston. They should carry some positive momentum into this evening's opener vs. the Cards.
Duffy doesn't generally go deep into games and he isn't about to win any Cy Young awards. All the same, he's been pretty solid. In eight starts, he's 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.082 WHIP, striking out 50, while walking only 11, in just over 40 innings. In 13 career appearances against the NL, he's got a 3.13 ERA.
Note that the Royals bullpen, which has been pretty good overall, got a bit of a break yesterday, also much-needed, as Kennedy went seven complete.
Wainwright has certainly been a lot better of late. However, he's still got a 4.73 ERA on the season, including an ugly 5.74 mark in eight road starts.
Duffy last faced the Cards back in 2014. He tossed six shutout innings, allowing only a single hit, en route to a 6-0 victory. With the Royals an outstanding 49-18 (+28.4) their past 67 home games when the line ranged from +100 to -125, take a second look at KC in this one.
Play: Cardinals +111
The Royals are off a 6-1 win yesterday but had previously lost 4 straight games. The Cardinals are also off of a win yesterday and that was their 4th in their last 6 games as they snapped a mini two-game skid. With the Cards looking to wrap up an 8-game road trip the right way as they start this two-game mini-series at Kansas City, I feel we are getting excellent line value here as they take on a slumping Royals team that has lost 4 of 5. Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals and he has produced 4 straight quality starts (at least 6 innings and no more than 3 earned runs) and now has 6 quality outings in his last 7. St Louis is 6-2 in his 8 road starts this season. He'll be opposed by Kansas City's Danny Duffy who has "cooled off" after a strong recent stretch. In his last two starts Duffy has walked 6 and allowed 8 hits (including 4 homers) for a 1.45 WHIP in these outings. The Royals have lost each of his last two starts and he's facing Wainwright who is 4-1 in his career starts against Kansas City. Keep in mind that the Royals started the season 12-6 but have a losing record since then. Conversely the Cards are on a 15-11 run since late May. They also are 9-4 this season in road games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Look for the Cardinals to improve to 6-2 in Monday games this season while the Royals drop to 3-6 on Mondays.
St. Louis +106 over KANSAS CITY
Danny Duffy is breaking out?again ... Duffy has done this before. He posted a 2.53 ERA in his breakout 2014 season, but underwhelming skills that year made his 2015 dud somewhat unsurprising. Duffy's at it again in 2016 with a 3.38 ERA. Does this breakout have more legs than the last one? Not really. While there are several encouraging signs, there are also some concerns that MLB hitters catch onto real quick. Duffy has 71 K?s in 59 innings. We're typically skeptical of a major strikeout rate spike like this but Duffy's fastball velocity is up nearly two mph and his swing and miss rate has exploded. Looks like Duffy can certainly keep a K-per-inning + pace. Duffy's impressive performance comes with plenty of support, as he's throwing more strikes, generating more whiffs, and doing it with more velocity. Duffy's changeup, which has produced a 19% swing and miss rate this year, has been an increasingly used weapon as well (9% usage in 2014-15; 15% in 2016). We need to urge caution given the 59-innings sample size. We also must point out that Duffy is not durable. He started the year in the pen for his first 17 appearances. Many of his K?s happened when he was facing three batters an outing. He threw 102 pitches in his last start in just four innings. That suggests he has trouble ?putting away? hitters and that occurred against the Mets. He has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any of his starts and he?s only made it past five innings in four starts. Duffy also has a 33%/47% groundball/fly-ball ratio. Incidentally, the Cardinals .786 OPS on the road is the third best in MLB. Danny Duffy's numbers are pretty but they are also deceiving because so many of his good stats have come in relief only.
Adam Wainwright had ace status for years but this market is quite aware of the slide he?s been on for well over a year. Wainwright rallied from an April Achilles injury to pitch out of the pen late in the second half of last year but it was too small to matter (8 IP including post-season). Wainwright got off to a rocky start this year too with a 4.73 ERA after his first eight starts through May 12. We were quick to point out Wainwright?s skills decline but we?re also quick to point out when a correction to the good is forthcoming. Wainwright finally has his strength back and he is looking once again like an ace. Wainwright wasn?t striking out many batters early on so he only has 65 K?s in 91 innings but he has whiffed 30 over his past 34 innings. That comes with support of his 12% swing and miss rate over that span. Wainwright?s groundball rate is increasing too practically every start. That rate was at 40% in the first month of the season but it is up to 50% over his last five starts. Adam Wainwright?s xERA over his last five starts is 3.19. That puts him in elite company. His actual ERA over that span is even better at 2.94. Adam Wainwright has his skills and confidence back.
Play: Kansas City Royals -115
Danny Duffy is quietly becoming a legitimate ace in Kansas City's starting rotation. The talented southpaw is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in eight starts this season, including going 1-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over his last three outings. Duffy currently ranks in the Top 10 in first-pitch strike rate, contact rate and in-zone contact rate. Those rankings indicate two things - Duffy is getting ahead in the count and batters are struggling to square up on his pitches in the zone.
Duffy has thrown 71% strikes through his first eight starts, while allowing 70.1% contact. The lefty is struggled recently, giving up a combined 4 home runs in his last two outings. However, Duffy is walking no one (6.7% BB%) and boasts a 15.9% swinging strike rate this season. His strikeout rate has also climbed in each of the past three months: 9.0 K/9 in April; 10.53 K/9 in May; and 11.89 K/9 in June.
Since entering the league in 2011, Duffy has posted a career 57% first-pitch strike rate, which is well below the MLB average of 60-61% over that span. Duffy's first-pitch strike rate of 63.9% this season is a significant breakthrough in that the difference between 1-0 and 0-1 pitch counts is 223 points of OPS!
For Duffy, it has been an incredible 300 points over his career! Duffy's fastball has been electric, yielding a .590 OPS in 2016 as compared to .778 last season and his .725 career rate. His slider has been equally impressive, garnering a strikeout rate exceeding 50% with a velocity topping out at 4 mph faster than in prior years.
In short, Duffy is posting a career-best Strike%, K%, BB% and Contact% as a starter in 2016. The 27-year-old is also supported by solid metrics: 3.90 FIP, 3.59 xFIP and a 3.11 SIERA. In the month of May, Duffy posted a 2.75 ERA and 2.73 FIP, together with a 29.5% K%, 3.9% BB% and 25.5% K-BB%. Duffy is also 1-0 with a career 1.86 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus the Cardinals, while the Royals are 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts and 4-1 in his last five home outings versus teams with a winning record.
Kansas City also possesses a very talented bullpen that owns a 2.81 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season, including posting a 2.14 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the last seven games. In contrast, St. Louis relievers have struggled against American League bats, posting a 5.33 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 27 interleague innings this season. St. Louis starter Adam Wainwright has struggled away from home where he owns a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2016.
Wainwright's 5.02 FIP, 4.63 xFIP and 9.0% K-BB% further substantiate his struggles on foreign soil. Finally, Kansas City is 37-15 in its last 52 home games, 42-16 in its last 58 home games versus right-handed starters, 20-7 in its last 27 interleague games versus right-handed starters, 11-3 in its last 14 games off a win and 23-9 in Duffy's last 32 home starts. Take the Royals at an excellent price and invest with confidence.
COLORADO -1? +185 over Toronto
Jonathan Gray is coming off a game in the Bronx in which the Yankees won, 9-8. Gray only allowed three hits in four innings but one of those hits was a grand-slam. He uncharacteristically walked five batters and got the hook early after throwing 80 pitches. Gray is now 4-3 with a 4.80 ERA after 12 starts. Thing is, Gray has a 57% strand rate. That is the lowest strand rate in the majors among qualified starters and it is a hugely luck-driven stat. Gray comes in with a BB/K split of 24/75 in 69 innings to go along with a 50% groundball rate. His swing and miss rate is 12% but it is 13% over his last five starts after he struck out 36 batters in 37 frames. Gray?s ERA over his last five starts is 3.13 and his overall xERA is 3.30. With top-tier punch-outs and a groundball tilt, Gray is a budding ace who won't come cheap much longer. That he?s a dog at home to Marco Estrada is extraordinary.
Do we really have to go over this again? Of course we do and we love it only Estrada is getting worse, not better. In his last start, his fly-ball rate was 75%. We?ll see how that plays out at Coors. In his last start against Arizona, Estrada only allowed two hits in six innings but one was a jack and six balls were warning track shots.
That out recorded by Kevin Pillar in CF will go down in the box score the same way as a soft roller to first base. It?s an out. Thing is, Estrada has been recording outs like that all season long, not to mention all of last year too. At some point, those hard hit balls will NOT be hit at people. Instead, they will find the gaps. Estrada?s velocity is also down a couple of ticks to 87.8 MPH. There has never been a pitcher in the history of this game that has ridden a changeup to the type of success that Estrada has. That?s his weapon of choice and guys go up there trying to hit the cover off the ball because it?s so juicy. Most of the time batters just miss hitting it out. Estrada comes in with the luckiest BABIP in the majors at .183. That?s 135 points lower than Noah Syndergaard?s .318 BABIP. It?s also 80 points lower than Clayton Kershaw?s and 104 points lower than Jake Arrieta?s. Estrada?s 80% strand rate is doing a lot of the heavy lifting too.
Most ordinary pitchers are helped out by some good and bad luck. They?ll have a low hit rate but a low strand rate to even it out. They?ll have a high strand rate but a high BABIP to even it out. There are many luck-driven stats in baseball. It?s a stats driven game but Marco Estrada has taken one pitch, the changeup and turned it into months of incredibly good luck. No luck-driven stat has worked against him. He has a low hit rate, a high strand rate, a remarkably low BABIP rate, he walks too many guys that don?t come back to score, he is often behind in the count and he has the highest fly-ball rate in baseball among qualified starters. These aren?t skills that equal up to a 2.70 ERA. So while guys like Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler salivate all over themselves when talking about Estrada, we?ll continue to fade this less than ordinary pitcher because once the floodgates open, it?s going to be a tsunami. Those fly-balls to the warning track will not be outs in Colorado.
