07:10 PM [902] TOTAL u8.5 -110 (MIA MARLINS vrs CIN REDS) ( D PHELPS -R / B FINNEGAN -L )
08:40 PM [904] COL ROCKIES +175 ( M SCHERZER -R / J DE LA ROSA -L )
09:40 PM [906] ARI DBACKS -1.5 +170 ( B COLON -R / R RAY -L )
10:15 PM [907] PIT PIRATES +127 ( R VOGELSONG -R / M MOORE -L )
07:10 PM [914] TOTAL u8.5 -105 (KC ROYALS vrs DET TIGERS) ( I KENNEDY -R / D NORRIS -L )
08:05 PM [915] OAK ATHLETICS +151 ( R DETWILER -L / M PEREZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 156 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-133, -38.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
Ian Kennedy been fine of late, he's gotten into a good routine and rhythm with his preparation and starts....wind at the park today seems in from Center-Right, not anything to hurt Ian and his extreme flyball/home run tendencies..
Royals offense on the road is worst in MLB, and poor everywhere vs lefties (lost last 9 of 10 vs LH) and they've not seen Norris this year.
Last two weeks they've both been about average...
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...nd=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Detwiler was with the Texas Rangers last season, did not do well, and was released. He's now unexpectedly mixing up his pitches a lot more, not just a lot of fastball anymore. His changes and motivation vs TX might just help that dog bet on Oakland tonight...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Biggest UNDER run: Royals (11-4 past 15)
The Royals are in the midst of a long-term 'under' run, and the under is 3-1 in their past four against the Tigers, including 2-1 in their three games at Comerica Park this season. The under is a perfect 5-0 in Kansas City's past five against a team with a winning overall record, and 5-1 in their past six road outings against left-handed starting pitching. The under has also cashed in six stragiht starts by Ian Kennedy, and 5-1 in his past six assignments against teams with a winning overall mark.
Let me go into a little more detail here since it may matter to those of you doing your own handicapping at home - Ian Kennedy is sitting on a 34.1 GB% this season, the lowest of his career. And Kennedy can't really survive too many flyballs - there are 81 pitchers that have worked at least 250 innings over the past 2 seasons, and Kennedy is at 16.5 in HR/FB ratio, which rates #79. That 16.5 includes a lot of pitches at Petco and Kaufman, which are not HR friendly. What I had hoped for tonight was any kind of breeze favoring the hitters to accentuate that weakness, but instead it is a mild flow in from right-center. It is not the kind of breeze that will impact a game, but I was hoping for something in the other direction. If -125 shows, the trigger will get pulled.
N.Y. YANKEES +108 over Toronto
The Blue Jays continue to be overpriced almost daily. They are getting a huge amount of market support because they have an entire country backing them as opposed to a single city. That has influence on the number but there are so many things not to like about them here. First, there is R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball. Knuckleballers are a rare breed in that you rarely know what you are going to get from them. If the knuckler is dancing and/or around the zone, it can be very effective. However, if Dickey is missing the plate and the knuckler isn?t dancing, it?s batting practice out there. While many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does support any type of success going forward. Knuckleballers rely on good fortune rather than actual skill growth. Dickey has 52 walks in 143 innings with 103 K?s which is a K/BB ratio that is below league average. His ERA/xERA split of 4.63/4.61 reveals the risks involved.
Toronto?s offense continues to get praised often but it?s not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .253 over their past 40 games and just .225 over their past 20 games, which is dead last in the AL and second last in the entire league. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .158 batting average (in 101 AB?s) will be in the lineup tonight. That?s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher going, the Jays are favored on the road here because why?
Chad Green allowed 12 baserunners (eight hits, four walks) in 3.2 innings on his way to a disaster start on Aug. 3, taking the first turn in the rotation slot vacated by the traded Ivan Nova. It was ugly but we never put a lot of emphasis on one start and now Green gets another opportunity. The Tigers selected Green in the 11th round of the 2013 draft and saw him develop nicely as a starter. They dealt him to New York in December 2015. The sleeper prospect has been absolutely terrific since midseason 2015 and has been stingy thus far in 2016. He commands the plate with an easily locatable 90-94 mph fastball despite its late sink and run. Green knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up need work, but play up due to his repeatable arm speed and slot. Green limits walks and HR and he has a nifty 52% career groundball rate in the minors and majors. Further, he?s able to register strikeouts by mixing effectively and staying ahead of hitters. Win or lose here, we?re going with the best of it in terms of value because Toronto with Dickey starting does not warrant being road chalk.
Miami vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
The 48-68 Reds own one of MLB?s worst records but they?ve gone 16-11 since the All Star break, winning SEVEN of nine series in that span. Miami ended a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 win against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday and at 61-56, are 8 1/2 games behind Washington in the NL East. However, they are in the thick of the NL wild card race with St Louis , Pittsburgh and the NY Mets. The Marlins currently trail the Cards for the No. 2 spot by a half-game, while being up by one game on the Pirates and by two over the Mets. The Marlins? playoff path became much tougher on Sunday though, with the team placing Giancarlo Stanton (groin) and pitcher Adam Conley (finger tendonitis) on the 15-day disabled list. An MRI revealed Stanton has a Grade 3 groin strain, putting the rest of the season in jeopardy for him. "The best-case scenario is a six-week return," Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said Sunday. "There's still an opportunity to get (Stanton) back before the end of the season, but it was a significant injury." Stanton has 25 HRs, 70 RBI and a slugging percentage of .497 this season.
The Marlins need to take advantage of this four-game series in Cincinnati and Monday?s opener features David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) taking on Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA). Phelps is making his third start since joining the rotation (his first 50 appearances this season came as a reliever) and was sharp in his first two chances, allowing a total of one run in 9.1 innings. He took the loss against San Francisco on Wednesday despite surrendering just one run in five innings. He has scattered nine hits across 14.1 innings in his last six appearances with 18 Ks. Phelps is making his fourth career start against Cincinnati and is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA in five appearances against the Reds (teams are 1-2 in his starts). Finnegan is facing the Marlins for the first time in his career and is making a team-high 24th start in 2016.
Phelps has had a bounce-back season in 2016 out of the bullpen but I don?t much trust him in the role of a starter. Meanwhile, Finnegan has allowed just three ERs on 12 hits over his last three starts (18 innings for a 1.50 ERA) and as noted earlier, the Reds have been playing solid baseball since the break. The loss of Stanton could be a ?back breaker? for Miami plus note that Phelps saw his teams (Miami in 2015 and the NYY Yankees in 2014) go 12-24 in his 36 starts over that two-year span. The bet is on the home dog.
Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Marlins might be a longshot to win their division, but they are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Cardinals for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot right now, one game ahead of Pittsburgh and two games ahead of the Mets. The Marlins snapped a two game losing streak on Sunday, taking the final game of their series with the White Sox, 5-4. David Phelps makes a rare start today for the fish. Phelps has been in 52 games this season, but started just two times. Phelps has been solid out of the pen, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Phelps two starts have been very good, allowing just one run over 9.1 innings. Brandon Finnegan starts for the Reds. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA, but has three straight quality starts. Finnegan has allowed just three runs over his last 18 innings and has won four of his last five decisions. Miami has gone UNDER in four of the last five starts by Phelps on the road. In addition, seven of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under.
Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Marlins might be a longshot to win their division, but they are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Cardinals for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot right now, one game ahead of Pittsburgh and two games ahead of the Mets. The Marlins snapped a two game losing streak on Sunday, taking the final game of their series with the White Sox, 5-4. David Phelps makes a rare start today for the fish. Phelps has been in 52 games this season, but started just two times. Phelps has been solid out of the pen, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Phelps two starts have been very good, allowing just one run over 9.1 innings. Brandon Finnegan starts for the Reds. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA, but has three straight quality starts. Finnegan has allowed just three runs over his last 18 innings and has won four of his last five decisions. Miami has gone UNDER in four of the last five starts by Phelps on the road. In addition, seven of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under.
Dickey could not find his rhythm last time out at home against Tampa Bay, allowing four runs and six hits over 4 1/3 innings in a game the Blue Jays went on to win 7-5. The 41-year-old knuckleballer has been a much better pitcher on the road this season, going 6-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 11 starts. Teixeira is just 6-for-25 but has two homers against Dickey, who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA lifetime versus the Yankees.
If you don't know already, David Phelps is now in the Marlins rotation and he is dealing. After a solid outing over the weekend, Phelps went 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the Giants yesterday. Go get him now if you're in a 12-teamer. But Nick, wasn't he pretty blegh as a starter in the past? Yes, and that was when he was throwing 89 mph Fastballs. Now he's throwing 90 mph Sliders. Or Cutters, depending on who you ask, whatever, it's a great pitch. There's often a jump in velocity when you transition from the rotation to the pen, though in these two starts he's been averaging 95 and 94 on his heater. Now he gets a super easy schedule and it's all pointing in the right direction. The biggest worry is how long he can last in games given he's still making the transition, but even if he only goes to six max, I still love it. Go go go go.
San Diego is 7-2 last 9 following a loss.
Ross Detwiler knows it will take more than one strong outing for people to take him seriously again as a starting pitcher.
Detwiler and John Axford combined on a seven-hitter and Oakland beat Baltimore 1-0 on Wednesday night to knock the Orioles out of first place in the AL East.
"Our reports had more fastballs than anything else but he mixed it up really good today," Melvin said. "Some curveballs, some sliders, some changeups. It was way more than we expected."
---
In the Sights?
So far the Monday MLB board brings nothing but crumbs, but if the markets create something later in the day it will be posted in the thread, and also copied and pasted here. There was a hope of finding the Seattle Team Total at 4, which has not happened, so now it is a matter of sitting patiently and watching the trading unfold.
UPDATING ? Now it is time to get in play, and with the Monday markets pushing Tampa out to as high as -205, it will be #919 San Diego (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket for a half unit. But since a half unit will return nearly a full position, it pays well.
Teams that are 47-69 this late in the season, with a struggling starter in Drew Smyly at 4-11/5.04, just do no merit this price range. Only the Twins and Braves have lost more games, and while Smyly has thrown better since the All Star break he remains wildly inconsistent. The sleeper element here is that Luis Perdomo shows more promise than his 6.80 ERA, but a 23-year old that never got to throw a pitch at AA or AAA was bound to have some struggles learning on the job. The sport has not been kind to him, with a .379 BABIP and 64.8 LOB%, and of the 124 pitchers that have thrown at least 90 innings, Perdomo is dead last in the former and #116 in the latter. Those categories will get better for him, and a 58.8 GB% that rates second to only Marcus Stroman shows the upside that he brings.
Washington @ COLORADO
COLORADO +170 over Washington
Max Scherzer needs no introductions. Scherzer continues to rack up strikeouts, as he's amassed a major league leading 208 of them through 24 starts. However, this park is unlike the rest so even the best are vulnerable to the conditions here. The over/under total when a guy like Scherzer is pitching is almost exactly the same as when a guy like Tanner Roark is pitching. Tonight?s total of o10 -135 proves so, which is why the Nationals are far too big a risk at this price in Denver. It?s also worth noting that Scherzer has been tagged for 24 jacks this season, which leads the NL. Lastly, Scherzers fly-ball rate of 53% is among the highest in the majors, which explains the numbers of bombs he surrenders. Scherzer is an elite pitcher but nobody is an elite pitcher at this unforgiving park and Scherzer?s profile may not play well here at all.
Jorge De La Rosa is an unfamiliar 35-year-old pitcher that gets very little attention pitching for this team at this park. We?re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that De La Rosa isn?t vulnerable because he is. Dude has walked 16 batters over his last 33 frames while striking out just 14. De La Rosa could easily get whacked here. However, we?ve seen this movie before, whereas De La Rosa goes out and pitches a seven-inning gem in his home park. Even though De La Rosa?s numbers aren?t pretty (5.25 ERA), he has several outstanding starts just like he has every season. That includes a 6.1-inning, four-hitter in Baltimore, a six-inning, three-hit shutout in Colorado against the Yanks and at least four other solid outings. We?ll close with De La Rosa?s three year home/road split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA.
ARIZONA -1? +181 over N.Y Mets
Robbie Ray evenly priced against Bartolo Colon is nuts. Ray is one of a select number of starters who can claim excellent skills against both LH and RH bats. He has been untouchable against lefties but he also has been very good against righties with 10.9 K?s/9, 3.7 BB?s/9, 43% grounders. If he can keep his walks under control, Ray will emerge as an elite starter. Ray?s groundball rate is 51% over his last six starts. His swing and miss rate of 13% over that same span is elite too. Everything that Ray throws is elite and the last thing he needs to improve on is his control. The good news is that he has walked just seven batters over his last 31 innings. Overall, Ray has 156 K?s in 128 frames. He?s on the verge of being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers so do not sleep on him for a second.
Bartolo Colon keeps on chugging along with laser-beam control, stellar command and pitching ahead in the count (primo first-pitch strike rate). A subpar k-rate and weak swing and miss rate provide him little room for error, but his shiny 3.35 ERA says he doesn't make many. Colon shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!!????
Seriously, it?s hard to wrap one?s head around this success. Colon throws an 87 MPH fastball across the plate 88% of the time. Guys that do that never make it out of the minors but this lucky mother***er has been doing it for years. Every single batter knows that a fastball is coming, they know it will be a strike and they know it?ll be in the 86 to 88 MPH range. Colon is the only pitcher we have ever seen get away with this over an extended period of time. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with sweat pouring down his enormous face after one-pitch and armed with an 86 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, we?ll take our chances that his fat luck runs out here. Bartolo Colon pitches worse than James Shields but he?s priced like he?s John Lackey.
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Here is the difficulty in getting a handle on Mets/D'Backs - this is a quick re-hook from last week in Queens, when Ray/Colon duked it out to 1-0 Arizona through 7 innings (D'Backs eventually won 3-2). I have wondered if hitters fared better against Colon on a quick second look, which would seem to have logic based on his style, but when I sorted back through his recent career the evidence is only marginal, with no real effect visible. Meanwhile the second look vs. Ray may not actually matter all that much - at his velocity it is more a matter of whether he is throwing strikes or not. Ray's average fastball was 95.6 in New York last week, which was significantly above the 93.8 for the season going in. Hence, I am rather clueless as to whether the hitters get any edge on the re-hook, because neither offense scratched out much last week.
Coldest team: Angels (0-10 past 10)
The Angels are in a nosedive and they're not showing any signs of pulling out of it. The Halos were broomed in Cleveland in a four-game set over the weekend, their third straight series resulting on the short end of a sweep. The good news is that they return home after a disastrous road trip, but the bad news is that the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez will be awaiting them. The M's have won eight of their past nine, and they're 6-1 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching while going 5-1 in their past six inside the division. On the flip side, the Angels are 3-14 in their past 17 vs. RHP, 2-14 in their past 16 against winning teams and 0-4 in their past four divisional games.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (12-7, 2.80 ERA)
Scherzer is coming off a hard-luck loss against the Cleveland Indians last time out, as he allowed just one run and three hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts over seven innings Aug. 9. He is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a sparkling 0.73 WHIP over 22 innings with 27 punchouts and just four walks. The Nats have won nine of their past 12, and they're 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing overall record. Washington is also 6-2 in Scherzer's past eight road outings, while the Nats are 11-5 in their past 16 road games against left-handed starting pitching.
Matt Moore - 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. Man, those walks are just so scary. It's like watching a spider on your ceiling who isn't doing you harm right now, but you know that thing is going to do some damage later. You just know it.
Speaking of too many walks, Matt Moore seemed to have things together before the 15 free passes over his past three outings, spanning 18 2/3 innings. The walks didn't hurt him, but if he continues to be so generous, he'll eventually suffer. Next up is a Pittsburgh Pirates squad that's coaxed the third-best walk rate in the league with a lefty on the hill. If Starling Marte is out again,
Biggest OVER run: Rays (8-1 past nine, 11-4 past 15)
The Rays pitching staff has allowed six or more runs in five of the past seven games, and Drew Smyly has been very hittable so another 'over' is likely coming. The over is 11-3-3 in Smyly's past 17 starts overall, and 6-2-1 in his past nine on astroturf. The over is also 4-1 in San Diego's past five against teams with a losing record, 6-2-1 in their past nine interleague games against a southpaw and 18-7-2 in their past 27 interleague games.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Mets
The Mets hit the road trying to get on track after an ugly homestand and inability to piece together a win streak. The Mets have managed a 1-11 record in their past 12 games following a win. They're also just 4-13 in their past 17 against National League West teams, 1-5 in their past six against left-handed starting pitching and 2-7 in their past nine games against teams with an overall losing record. The Diamondbacks have also been struggling, posting an 0-5 mark in their past five home games against teams with a winning record, and 12-29 in their past 41 games overall. New York has won seven of the past nine in the desert, and the Mets have won nine of Bartolo Colon's past 13 outings, including 5-2 in his past seven road assignments.
The good news is that Bartolo Colon has allowed more than three earned runs only four times this season. The not so good news is three of those have come in his past seven outings.
Item: Cole Hamels actually did this
On a busy weekend some of you may have only glanced through the box scores instead of doing full post mortems, and if that was the case you would have missed one of the great high-wire acts of my betting lifetime at Texas on Saturday night. Hamels entered the game at 12-3/2.89, and the 2-0 defeat sent him away at 12-4/2.88, only the slightest of blips on the ERA radar screen. But that single-game ERA of 2.86 does not come close to telling the story.
Hamels faced 34 batters, and 17 of them reached via either a hit or a walk, the Tigers having a .452/.500/.588 slash line for the evening. For 15 runners to reach base without scoring across seven innings is an improbability not easy to measure, and also note that Hamels gets credit for seven full innings, or 21 outs, despite only having retired 17 Detroit batters.
How about this for the best sequence of all, a span of seven batters starting with Mike Aviles leading off the fourth inning for the Tigers -
Walk
Single
Strikeout
Double
Single
Single
Single
How many runs were produced? Just one. For all of the trust that we would like to be able to put into our databases, some nights Baseball just happens.
08:40 PM [904] COL ROCKIES +175 ( M SCHERZER -R / J DE LA ROSA -L )
09:40 PM [906] ARI DBACKS -1.5 +170 ( B COLON -R / R RAY -L )
10:15 PM [907] PIT PIRATES +127 ( R VOGELSONG -R / M MOORE -L )
07:10 PM [914] TOTAL u8.5 -105 (KC ROYALS vrs DET TIGERS) ( I KENNEDY -R / D NORRIS -L )
08:05 PM [915] OAK ATHLETICS +151 ( R DETWILER -L / M PEREZ -L )
1 unit bet pays 156 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 11-133, -38.24 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
Ian Kennedy been fine of late, he's gotten into a good routine and rhythm with his preparation and starts....wind at the park today seems in from Center-Right, not anything to hurt Ian and his extreme flyball/home run tendencies..
Royals offense on the road is worst in MLB, and poor everywhere vs lefties (lost last 9 of 10 vs LH) and they've not seen Norris this year.
Last two weeks they've both been about average...
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.as...nd=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Detwiler was with the Texas Rangers last season, did not do well, and was released. He's now unexpectedly mixing up his pitches a lot more, not just a lot of fastball anymore. His changes and motivation vs TX might just help that dog bet on Oakland tonight...
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Biggest UNDER run: Royals (11-4 past 15)
The Royals are in the midst of a long-term 'under' run, and the under is 3-1 in their past four against the Tigers, including 2-1 in their three games at Comerica Park this season. The under is a perfect 5-0 in Kansas City's past five against a team with a winning overall record, and 5-1 in their past six road outings against left-handed starting pitching. The under has also cashed in six stragiht starts by Ian Kennedy, and 5-1 in his past six assignments against teams with a winning overall mark.
Let me go into a little more detail here since it may matter to those of you doing your own handicapping at home - Ian Kennedy is sitting on a 34.1 GB% this season, the lowest of his career. And Kennedy can't really survive too many flyballs - there are 81 pitchers that have worked at least 250 innings over the past 2 seasons, and Kennedy is at 16.5 in HR/FB ratio, which rates #79. That 16.5 includes a lot of pitches at Petco and Kaufman, which are not HR friendly. What I had hoped for tonight was any kind of breeze favoring the hitters to accentuate that weakness, but instead it is a mild flow in from right-center. It is not the kind of breeze that will impact a game, but I was hoping for something in the other direction. If -125 shows, the trigger will get pulled.
N.Y. YANKEES +108 over Toronto
The Blue Jays continue to be overpriced almost daily. They are getting a huge amount of market support because they have an entire country backing them as opposed to a single city. That has influence on the number but there are so many things not to like about them here. First, there is R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball. Knuckleballers are a rare breed in that you rarely know what you are going to get from them. If the knuckler is dancing and/or around the zone, it can be very effective. However, if Dickey is missing the plate and the knuckler isn?t dancing, it?s batting practice out there. While many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does support any type of success going forward. Knuckleballers rely on good fortune rather than actual skill growth. Dickey has 52 walks in 143 innings with 103 K?s which is a K/BB ratio that is below league average. His ERA/xERA split of 4.63/4.61 reveals the risks involved.
Toronto?s offense continues to get praised often but it?s not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .253 over their past 40 games and just .225 over their past 20 games, which is dead last in the AL and second last in the entire league. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .158 batting average (in 101 AB?s) will be in the lineup tonight. That?s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher going, the Jays are favored on the road here because why?
Chad Green allowed 12 baserunners (eight hits, four walks) in 3.2 innings on his way to a disaster start on Aug. 3, taking the first turn in the rotation slot vacated by the traded Ivan Nova. It was ugly but we never put a lot of emphasis on one start and now Green gets another opportunity. The Tigers selected Green in the 11th round of the 2013 draft and saw him develop nicely as a starter. They dealt him to New York in December 2015. The sleeper prospect has been absolutely terrific since midseason 2015 and has been stingy thus far in 2016. He commands the plate with an easily locatable 90-94 mph fastball despite its late sink and run. Green knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up need work, but play up due to his repeatable arm speed and slot. Green limits walks and HR and he has a nifty 52% career groundball rate in the minors and majors. Further, he?s able to register strikeouts by mixing effectively and staying ahead of hitters. Win or lose here, we?re going with the best of it in terms of value because Toronto with Dickey starting does not warrant being road chalk.
Miami vs. Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati
The 48-68 Reds own one of MLB?s worst records but they?ve gone 16-11 since the All Star break, winning SEVEN of nine series in that span. Miami ended a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 win against the Chicago White Sox on Sunday and at 61-56, are 8 1/2 games behind Washington in the NL East. However, they are in the thick of the NL wild card race with St Louis , Pittsburgh and the NY Mets. The Marlins currently trail the Cards for the No. 2 spot by a half-game, while being up by one game on the Pirates and by two over the Mets. The Marlins? playoff path became much tougher on Sunday though, with the team placing Giancarlo Stanton (groin) and pitcher Adam Conley (finger tendonitis) on the 15-day disabled list. An MRI revealed Stanton has a Grade 3 groin strain, putting the rest of the season in jeopardy for him. "The best-case scenario is a six-week return," Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said Sunday. "There's still an opportunity to get (Stanton) back before the end of the season, but it was a significant injury." Stanton has 25 HRs, 70 RBI and a slugging percentage of .497 this season.
The Marlins need to take advantage of this four-game series in Cincinnati and Monday?s opener features David Phelps (5-6, 2.40 ERA) taking on Brandon Finnegan (7-8, 4.45 ERA). Phelps is making his third start since joining the rotation (his first 50 appearances this season came as a reliever) and was sharp in his first two chances, allowing a total of one run in 9.1 innings. He took the loss against San Francisco on Wednesday despite surrendering just one run in five innings. He has scattered nine hits across 14.1 innings in his last six appearances with 18 Ks. Phelps is making his fourth career start against Cincinnati and is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA in five appearances against the Reds (teams are 1-2 in his starts). Finnegan is facing the Marlins for the first time in his career and is making a team-high 24th start in 2016.
Phelps has had a bounce-back season in 2016 out of the bullpen but I don?t much trust him in the role of a starter. Meanwhile, Finnegan has allowed just three ERs on 12 hits over his last three starts (18 innings for a 1.50 ERA) and as noted earlier, the Reds have been playing solid baseball since the break. The loss of Stanton could be a ?back breaker? for Miami plus note that Phelps saw his teams (Miami in 2015 and the NYY Yankees in 2014) go 12-24 in his 36 starts over that two-year span. The bet is on the home dog.
Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Marlins might be a longshot to win their division, but they are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Cardinals for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot right now, one game ahead of Pittsburgh and two games ahead of the Mets. The Marlins snapped a two game losing streak on Sunday, taking the final game of their series with the White Sox, 5-4. David Phelps makes a rare start today for the fish. Phelps has been in 52 games this season, but started just two times. Phelps has been solid out of the pen, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Phelps two starts have been very good, allowing just one run over 9.1 innings. Brandon Finnegan starts for the Reds. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA, but has three straight quality starts. Finnegan has allowed just three runs over his last 18 innings and has won four of his last five decisions. Miami has gone UNDER in four of the last five starts by Phelps on the road. In addition, seven of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under.
Miami at Cincinnati
Pick: Under
The Marlins might be a longshot to win their division, but they are right in the thick of things in the Wild Card race. Miami is tied with the Cardinals for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot right now, one game ahead of Pittsburgh and two games ahead of the Mets. The Marlins snapped a two game losing streak on Sunday, taking the final game of their series with the White Sox, 5-4. David Phelps makes a rare start today for the fish. Phelps has been in 52 games this season, but started just two times. Phelps has been solid out of the pen, posting a 2.40 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Phelps two starts have been very good, allowing just one run over 9.1 innings. Brandon Finnegan starts for the Reds. Finnegan is 7-8 with a 4.45 ERA, but has three straight quality starts. Finnegan has allowed just three runs over his last 18 innings and has won four of his last five decisions. Miami has gone UNDER in four of the last five starts by Phelps on the road. In addition, seven of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone under.
Dickey could not find his rhythm last time out at home against Tampa Bay, allowing four runs and six hits over 4 1/3 innings in a game the Blue Jays went on to win 7-5. The 41-year-old knuckleballer has been a much better pitcher on the road this season, going 6-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 11 starts. Teixeira is just 6-for-25 but has two homers against Dickey, who is 7-5 with a 2.76 ERA lifetime versus the Yankees.
If you don't know already, David Phelps is now in the Marlins rotation and he is dealing. After a solid outing over the weekend, Phelps went 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks against the Giants yesterday. Go get him now if you're in a 12-teamer. But Nick, wasn't he pretty blegh as a starter in the past? Yes, and that was when he was throwing 89 mph Fastballs. Now he's throwing 90 mph Sliders. Or Cutters, depending on who you ask, whatever, it's a great pitch. There's often a jump in velocity when you transition from the rotation to the pen, though in these two starts he's been averaging 95 and 94 on his heater. Now he gets a super easy schedule and it's all pointing in the right direction. The biggest worry is how long he can last in games given he's still making the transition, but even if he only goes to six max, I still love it. Go go go go.
San Diego is 7-2 last 9 following a loss.
Ross Detwiler knows it will take more than one strong outing for people to take him seriously again as a starting pitcher.
Detwiler and John Axford combined on a seven-hitter and Oakland beat Baltimore 1-0 on Wednesday night to knock the Orioles out of first place in the AL East.
"Our reports had more fastballs than anything else but he mixed it up really good today," Melvin said. "Some curveballs, some sliders, some changeups. It was way more than we expected."
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In the Sights?
So far the Monday MLB board brings nothing but crumbs, but if the markets create something later in the day it will be posted in the thread, and also copied and pasted here. There was a hope of finding the Seattle Team Total at 4, which has not happened, so now it is a matter of sitting patiently and watching the trading unfold.
UPDATING ? Now it is time to get in play, and with the Monday markets pushing Tampa out to as high as -205, it will be #919 San Diego (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket for a half unit. But since a half unit will return nearly a full position, it pays well.
Teams that are 47-69 this late in the season, with a struggling starter in Drew Smyly at 4-11/5.04, just do no merit this price range. Only the Twins and Braves have lost more games, and while Smyly has thrown better since the All Star break he remains wildly inconsistent. The sleeper element here is that Luis Perdomo shows more promise than his 6.80 ERA, but a 23-year old that never got to throw a pitch at AA or AAA was bound to have some struggles learning on the job. The sport has not been kind to him, with a .379 BABIP and 64.8 LOB%, and of the 124 pitchers that have thrown at least 90 innings, Perdomo is dead last in the former and #116 in the latter. Those categories will get better for him, and a 58.8 GB% that rates second to only Marcus Stroman shows the upside that he brings.
Washington @ COLORADO
COLORADO +170 over Washington
Max Scherzer needs no introductions. Scherzer continues to rack up strikeouts, as he's amassed a major league leading 208 of them through 24 starts. However, this park is unlike the rest so even the best are vulnerable to the conditions here. The over/under total when a guy like Scherzer is pitching is almost exactly the same as when a guy like Tanner Roark is pitching. Tonight?s total of o10 -135 proves so, which is why the Nationals are far too big a risk at this price in Denver. It?s also worth noting that Scherzer has been tagged for 24 jacks this season, which leads the NL. Lastly, Scherzers fly-ball rate of 53% is among the highest in the majors, which explains the numbers of bombs he surrenders. Scherzer is an elite pitcher but nobody is an elite pitcher at this unforgiving park and Scherzer?s profile may not play well here at all.
Jorge De La Rosa is an unfamiliar 35-year-old pitcher that gets very little attention pitching for this team at this park. We?re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that De La Rosa isn?t vulnerable because he is. Dude has walked 16 batters over his last 33 frames while striking out just 14. De La Rosa could easily get whacked here. However, we?ve seen this movie before, whereas De La Rosa goes out and pitches a seven-inning gem in his home park. Even though De La Rosa?s numbers aren?t pretty (5.25 ERA), he has several outstanding starts just like he has every season. That includes a 6.1-inning, four-hitter in Baltimore, a six-inning, three-hit shutout in Colorado against the Yanks and at least four other solid outings. We?ll close with De La Rosa?s three year home/road split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA.
ARIZONA -1? +181 over N.Y Mets
Robbie Ray evenly priced against Bartolo Colon is nuts. Ray is one of a select number of starters who can claim excellent skills against both LH and RH bats. He has been untouchable against lefties but he also has been very good against righties with 10.9 K?s/9, 3.7 BB?s/9, 43% grounders. If he can keep his walks under control, Ray will emerge as an elite starter. Ray?s groundball rate is 51% over his last six starts. His swing and miss rate of 13% over that same span is elite too. Everything that Ray throws is elite and the last thing he needs to improve on is his control. The good news is that he has walked just seven batters over his last 31 innings. Overall, Ray has 156 K?s in 128 frames. He?s on the verge of being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers so do not sleep on him for a second.
Bartolo Colon keeps on chugging along with laser-beam control, stellar command and pitching ahead in the count (primo first-pitch strike rate). A subpar k-rate and weak swing and miss rate provide him little room for error, but his shiny 3.35 ERA says he doesn't make many. Colon shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!!????
Seriously, it?s hard to wrap one?s head around this success. Colon throws an 87 MPH fastball across the plate 88% of the time. Guys that do that never make it out of the minors but this lucky mother***er has been doing it for years. Every single batter knows that a fastball is coming, they know it will be a strike and they know it?ll be in the 86 to 88 MPH range. Colon is the only pitcher we have ever seen get away with this over an extended period of time. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with sweat pouring down his enormous face after one-pitch and armed with an 86 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, we?ll take our chances that his fat luck runs out here. Bartolo Colon pitches worse than James Shields but he?s priced like he?s John Lackey.
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Here is the difficulty in getting a handle on Mets/D'Backs - this is a quick re-hook from last week in Queens, when Ray/Colon duked it out to 1-0 Arizona through 7 innings (D'Backs eventually won 3-2). I have wondered if hitters fared better against Colon on a quick second look, which would seem to have logic based on his style, but when I sorted back through his recent career the evidence is only marginal, with no real effect visible. Meanwhile the second look vs. Ray may not actually matter all that much - at his velocity it is more a matter of whether he is throwing strikes or not. Ray's average fastball was 95.6 in New York last week, which was significantly above the 93.8 for the season going in. Hence, I am rather clueless as to whether the hitters get any edge on the re-hook, because neither offense scratched out much last week.
Coldest team: Angels (0-10 past 10)
The Angels are in a nosedive and they're not showing any signs of pulling out of it. The Halos were broomed in Cleveland in a four-game set over the weekend, their third straight series resulting on the short end of a sweep. The good news is that they return home after a disastrous road trip, but the bad news is that the Seattle Mariners and Felix Hernandez will be awaiting them. The M's have won eight of their past nine, and they're 6-1 in their past seven against right-handed starting pitching while going 5-1 in their past six inside the division. On the flip side, the Angels are 3-14 in their past 17 vs. RHP, 2-14 in their past 16 against winning teams and 0-4 in their past four divisional games.
Hottest pitcher: Max Scherzer, Nationals (12-7, 2.80 ERA)
Scherzer is coming off a hard-luck loss against the Cleveland Indians last time out, as he allowed just one run and three hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts over seven innings Aug. 9. He is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a sparkling 0.73 WHIP over 22 innings with 27 punchouts and just four walks. The Nats have won nine of their past 12, and they're 4-0 in their past four road games against teams with a losing overall record. Washington is also 6-2 in Scherzer's past eight road outings, while the Nats are 11-5 in their past 16 road games against left-handed starting pitching.
Matt Moore - 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 7 Ks. Man, those walks are just so scary. It's like watching a spider on your ceiling who isn't doing you harm right now, but you know that thing is going to do some damage later. You just know it.
Speaking of too many walks, Matt Moore seemed to have things together before the 15 free passes over his past three outings, spanning 18 2/3 innings. The walks didn't hurt him, but if he continues to be so generous, he'll eventually suffer. Next up is a Pittsburgh Pirates squad that's coaxed the third-best walk rate in the league with a lefty on the hill. If Starling Marte is out again,
Biggest OVER run: Rays (8-1 past nine, 11-4 past 15)
The Rays pitching staff has allowed six or more runs in five of the past seven games, and Drew Smyly has been very hittable so another 'over' is likely coming. The over is 11-3-3 in Smyly's past 17 starts overall, and 6-2-1 in his past nine on astroturf. The over is also 4-1 in San Diego's past five against teams with a losing record, 6-2-1 in their past nine interleague games against a southpaw and 18-7-2 in their past 27 interleague games.
Matchup to watch: Diamondbacks vs. Mets
The Mets hit the road trying to get on track after an ugly homestand and inability to piece together a win streak. The Mets have managed a 1-11 record in their past 12 games following a win. They're also just 4-13 in their past 17 against National League West teams, 1-5 in their past six against left-handed starting pitching and 2-7 in their past nine games against teams with an overall losing record. The Diamondbacks have also been struggling, posting an 0-5 mark in their past five home games against teams with a winning record, and 12-29 in their past 41 games overall. New York has won seven of the past nine in the desert, and the Mets have won nine of Bartolo Colon's past 13 outings, including 5-2 in his past seven road assignments.
The good news is that Bartolo Colon has allowed more than three earned runs only four times this season. The not so good news is three of those have come in his past seven outings.
Item: Cole Hamels actually did this
On a busy weekend some of you may have only glanced through the box scores instead of doing full post mortems, and if that was the case you would have missed one of the great high-wire acts of my betting lifetime at Texas on Saturday night. Hamels entered the game at 12-3/2.89, and the 2-0 defeat sent him away at 12-4/2.88, only the slightest of blips on the ERA radar screen. But that single-game ERA of 2.86 does not come close to telling the story.
Hamels faced 34 batters, and 17 of them reached via either a hit or a walk, the Tigers having a .452/.500/.588 slash line for the evening. For 15 runners to reach base without scoring across seven innings is an improbability not easy to measure, and also note that Hamels gets credit for seven full innings, or 21 outs, despite only having retired 17 Detroit batters.
How about this for the best sequence of all, a span of seven batters starting with Mike Aviles leading off the fourth inning for the Tigers -
Walk
Single
Strikeout
Double
Single
Single
Single
How many runs were produced? Just one. For all of the trust that we would like to be able to put into our databases, some nights Baseball just happens.
