07:20 PM [953] COL ROCKIES -107 ( C BETTIS -R / J NELSON -R )
09:40 PM [955] TOTAL o9.5 -120 (ATL BRAVES vrs ARI DBACKS) (FOLTYNEWICZ/GODLEY)
10:10 PM [957] CHI CUBS -1.5 -145 ( J LESTER -L / E JACKSON -R )
07:10 PM [959] TOTAL o7.5 -105 (BOS RED SOX vrs TB RAYS) (PRICE/SNELL)
10:05 PM [961] CLE INDIANS -177 ( C CARRASCO -R / A TRIGGS -R )
10:10 PM [963] NY YANKEES -1.5 +140 ( M PINEDA -R / C MARTIN -R )
07:05 PM [968] BAL ORIOLES -177 ( A COLE -R / D BUNDY -R )
1 unit bet pays 67 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-139, -30.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Rockies are 7-1 in Bettis? last 8 starts.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-12 in Nelson?s last 14 starts.
Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Setting the scene: Chad Bettis has struggled on the road. Jimmy Nelson has lost six straight. We think these struggling starters will get chased early which will then ultimately lead to this one sneaking above the number at the end of the night.
Bettis: He?s 10-6 with a 5.29 ERA. He?s looked brilliant at times this year, but also very average in others. Note that he owns a poor 5.20 ERA on the road.
Nelson: He?s 6-13 with a 4.31 ERA. A strong start to the 2016 campaign is in the rear view mirror now, most recently he?d give up six runs to the Cubs over six innings on Wednesday.
The bottom line: With these two explosive hurlers colliding on Monday night, we?re going to highly recommend a second look at the OVER in this matchup.
Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox will cap an 11-game road trip with four games at Tampa Bay Monday thru Thursday. Boston owns a 69-54 record, which has them a half-game behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, while also currently holding down the No. 1 spot in the AL wild card spot. As for the Rays, their role the remainder of the season can be nothing more than that of a playoff ?spoiler.? Tampa Bay does come in with seven wins in its last eight games, giving them an 18-16 record since the break. However, it?s a little difficult to overlook the team?s 52-70 mark on the year.
David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA) will take the mound in a very familiar spot tonight, Tropicana Field. He was drafted first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft by the Rays but was traded back in 2014 to the Tigers. The Tigers then sent him to the Blue Jays last season, with the 2012 Cy Young winner signing a seven-year, $217 million FA contract with the Red Sox before the start of the 2016 season. Price has hardly delivered as hoped in 2016, with just 11 wins in 26 starts. Boston is 13-13 in those starts, losing $841 vs the moneyline at $100/game. Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays but takes the mound having not completed six innings in any of his last four starts.
However, Snell also takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in his previous seven starts and note that in winning SEVEN of its last eight games, Tampa Bay has averaged 7.9 runs. I?m jumping on this VERY live home dog!
Foltynewicz was once again plagued by a high pitch count in his start vs. the Twins on Wednesday, unable to make it past the sixth inning for the sixth straight game. He has issued 10 walks over 22 innings this month.
Indians vs. A's
Play: A's +1?
Though the Indians got a come-from-behind win yesterday, they were only 3-3 in their 6 prior games. Also, yesterday's game was the 4th straight one run game that Cleveland has been involved with. 4 of the last 5 wins that the Indians have had have come by just a single run. As a result, there is great value being offered with the run line (+1.5 runs) on Oakland Monday. The A's Andrew Triggs has only made 3 starts this season but he has compiled a 0.79 WHIP in those outings as hits have been few and far between and he's not walked a single batter in his 3 starts. Though he may not pitch deep into this game he's supported by an Oakland bullpen that has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco. Though the right-hander has some solid numbers on the season, he has given up 30 hits in the 24 innings spanning his last four starts. Also, Carrasco has a 6.66 ERA in those 4 outings. Grab the underdog value here.
N.Y. Yankees -114 over SEATTLE
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 4.89 ERA after 24 starts. He had a 5-0 lead against Toronto in his last start after five innings when the rains came and he did not return. Incidentally, the Yanks lost that game and we frustratingly ripped up our tickets. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 154 K?s in 136 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 15% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 16% (!) strand rate. With a 3.23 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. His surface stats (4.89 ERA) keep him grossly undervalued and once we?ll attempt to exploit that.
Cody Martin evenly priced against Pineda is silly. Martin?s ERA is 3.14 but that means jack because he has a mere 14 innings pitched this season. This 26-year-old career minor-leaguer was called up on June 3. Prior to his call-up, Martin was hit hard in the minors, with batters hitting .325 off him. That resulted in a 7.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Martin is a two-pitch pitcher with a slider and fastball. He?s petrified to throw a curve or change because he?s gets slaughtered whenever he does. Therefore, if the slider is missing the plate, big trouble looms. If he?s throwing strikes with the slider, big trouble still looms because Martin?s swing and miss rate is a pitiful 4%. As a reliever, Martin was not striking out guys. He?s made one start over six appearances and has 7 K?s over his 14 innings. In that one start, his WHIP was 2.08. Martin has pitched parts of the last five seasons at Triple-A. He has proven just about all he can there (which isn?t much) and right now he?s just holding the fort until Seattle?s decimated rotation gets healthy. Martin is starting here only because the M?s options are very limited. This is NOT and even pitching matchup and therefore the price on the Yanks (and Pineda) is way off. Invest.
---
Dave, Pineda appears to be pitching well and his last start was cut short by a rain delay so he should be fresh for today's start. Does a play on the Yankees F5 make sense or are my thoughts already factored into the price?
I can be a fit, but I don't think the focus has to be narrowed to First Five - the Mariners bullpen is vulnerable right now, with Diaz and Wilhemsen both showing cracks over the past week, and with Martin starting that pen will have to play an active role. Meanwhile Betances is fresh for the Pinstripes, and while the notion of the Yankees and October does not seem to connect up because of the way the season has flowed they are only four games out of a Wild Card spot. At the price point it does not classify as a "bargain", but there is enough handicap to make it workable.
Atlanta at Arizona
Pick: Over
The Braves snapped a seven game losing streak on Sunday, beating the Nationals, 7-6. The Atlanta pitching staff has fallen apart, allowing 42 runs over their last five games.Mike Foltynewicz will try and improve those stats today. Foltynewicz has had trouble getting through innings without a lot of pitches. The righthander has been averaging 17.3 pitches per inning, which places him at the bottom of the efficiency chart. Arizona has won only three of their last 10 games. The D'backs will start Zach Godley tonight. The one-year pro has seven starts and 14 appearances this season. The D'Backs have gone over in Godley's last four starts. In addition, Arizona has gone over 19 of their last 26 home games. The last four meetings between these clubs has resulted in a 3-0-1 O/U mark.
Safeco Field has been an oasis for the New York Yankees in recent seasons, as the Bronx Bombers are 14-3 in their past 17 trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Yankees have won nine of the past 12 meetings against the Mariners overall. Both of these teams have been hot lately, with New York winning four of their past five road games. Michael Pineda faces his original team, and he is enjoying his hottest stretch of the season. The Yankees are 4-1 in his past five starts against a team with a winning record. The M's are 7-1 in their past eight home games against a right-handed starter while going 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning record and 10-3 in their past 13 against right-handed starting pitchers.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (6-0 past six, 12-3 past 15)
The Athletics have struggled offensively, scoring three or fewer runs in three of their past four, and 11 of the past 16 outings. The A's will welcome an Indians team which is also on an 'under' run, cashing in six of the past eight road games. The under is also 6-1 in Carlos Carrasco's past seven road outings, and seven of the past nine road starts by Carrasco against a team with a losing overall record. The under is 4-1 in Oakland's past five against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 in their past 27 home games agaisnt a right-handed starter and 15-5-1 in their past 21 home games against Cleveland.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (5-2 past seven, 7-1 past eight at home)
The Padres pitching staff has been terrible lately, allowing 45 runs over the past eight outings, and five or more runs in nine of the past 15 games. The last thing their pitching staff needs is a visit from the high-octane Chicago Cubs, a team which is 19-5 over the past 24 games while scoring six or more runs in four of the past five. The Cubs have managed four or more runs in 11 straight games, which certainly bodes well for the 'over'. The over is 2-1 in three meetings this season, and 7-3-1 in the past 11 battles between the two sides.
09:40 PM [955] TOTAL o9.5 -120 (ATL BRAVES vrs ARI DBACKS) (FOLTYNEWICZ/GODLEY)
10:10 PM [957] CHI CUBS -1.5 -145 ( J LESTER -L / E JACKSON -R )
07:10 PM [959] TOTAL o7.5 -105 (BOS RED SOX vrs TB RAYS) (PRICE/SNELL)
10:05 PM [961] CLE INDIANS -177 ( C CARRASCO -R / A TRIGGS -R )
10:10 PM [963] NY YANKEES -1.5 +140 ( M PINEDA -R / C MARTIN -R )
07:05 PM [968] BAL ORIOLES -177 ( A COLE -R / D BUNDY -R )
1 unit bet pays 67 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 13-139, -30.06 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Rockies are 7-1 in Bettis? last 8 starts.
The Milwaukee Brewers are 2-12 in Nelson?s last 14 starts.
Rockies vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Setting the scene: Chad Bettis has struggled on the road. Jimmy Nelson has lost six straight. We think these struggling starters will get chased early which will then ultimately lead to this one sneaking above the number at the end of the night.
Bettis: He?s 10-6 with a 5.29 ERA. He?s looked brilliant at times this year, but also very average in others. Note that he owns a poor 5.20 ERA on the road.
Nelson: He?s 6-13 with a 4.31 ERA. A strong start to the 2016 campaign is in the rear view mirror now, most recently he?d give up six runs to the Cubs over six innings on Wednesday.
The bottom line: With these two explosive hurlers colliding on Monday night, we?re going to highly recommend a second look at the OVER in this matchup.
Boston vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox will cap an 11-game road trip with four games at Tampa Bay Monday thru Thursday. Boston owns a 69-54 record, which has them a half-game behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East, while also currently holding down the No. 1 spot in the AL wild card spot. As for the Rays, their role the remainder of the season can be nothing more than that of a playoff ?spoiler.? Tampa Bay does come in with seven wins in its last eight games, giving them an 18-16 record since the break. However, it?s a little difficult to overlook the team?s 52-70 mark on the year.
David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA) will take the mound in a very familiar spot tonight, Tropicana Field. He was drafted first overall in the 2007 MLB Draft by the Rays but was traded back in 2014 to the Tigers. The Tigers then sent him to the Blue Jays last season, with the 2012 Cy Young winner signing a seven-year, $217 million FA contract with the Red Sox before the start of the 2016 season. Price has hardly delivered as hoped in 2016, with just 11 wins in 26 starts. Boston is 13-13 in those starts, losing $841 vs the moneyline at $100/game. Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays but takes the mound having not completed six innings in any of his last four starts.
However, Snell also takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in his previous seven starts and note that in winning SEVEN of its last eight games, Tampa Bay has averaged 7.9 runs. I?m jumping on this VERY live home dog!
Foltynewicz was once again plagued by a high pitch count in his start vs. the Twins on Wednesday, unable to make it past the sixth inning for the sixth straight game. He has issued 10 walks over 22 innings this month.
Indians vs. A's
Play: A's +1?
Though the Indians got a come-from-behind win yesterday, they were only 3-3 in their 6 prior games. Also, yesterday's game was the 4th straight one run game that Cleveland has been involved with. 4 of the last 5 wins that the Indians have had have come by just a single run. As a result, there is great value being offered with the run line (+1.5 runs) on Oakland Monday. The A's Andrew Triggs has only made 3 starts this season but he has compiled a 0.79 WHIP in those outings as hits have been few and far between and he's not walked a single batter in his 3 starts. Though he may not pitch deep into this game he's supported by an Oakland bullpen that has a 3.38 ERA in home games this season. Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco. Though the right-hander has some solid numbers on the season, he has given up 30 hits in the 24 innings spanning his last four starts. Also, Carrasco has a 6.66 ERA in those 4 outings. Grab the underdog value here.
N.Y. Yankees -114 over SEATTLE
Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 4.89 ERA after 24 starts. He had a 5-0 lead against Toronto in his last start after five innings when the rains came and he did not return. Incidentally, the Yanks lost that game and we frustratingly ripped up our tickets. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 154 K?s in 136 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 15% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K?s/9, 0.8 BB?s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 16% (!) strand rate. With a 3.23 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. His surface stats (4.89 ERA) keep him grossly undervalued and once we?ll attempt to exploit that.
Cody Martin evenly priced against Pineda is silly. Martin?s ERA is 3.14 but that means jack because he has a mere 14 innings pitched this season. This 26-year-old career minor-leaguer was called up on June 3. Prior to his call-up, Martin was hit hard in the minors, with batters hitting .325 off him. That resulted in a 7.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Martin is a two-pitch pitcher with a slider and fastball. He?s petrified to throw a curve or change because he?s gets slaughtered whenever he does. Therefore, if the slider is missing the plate, big trouble looms. If he?s throwing strikes with the slider, big trouble still looms because Martin?s swing and miss rate is a pitiful 4%. As a reliever, Martin was not striking out guys. He?s made one start over six appearances and has 7 K?s over his 14 innings. In that one start, his WHIP was 2.08. Martin has pitched parts of the last five seasons at Triple-A. He has proven just about all he can there (which isn?t much) and right now he?s just holding the fort until Seattle?s decimated rotation gets healthy. Martin is starting here only because the M?s options are very limited. This is NOT and even pitching matchup and therefore the price on the Yanks (and Pineda) is way off. Invest.
---
Dave, Pineda appears to be pitching well and his last start was cut short by a rain delay so he should be fresh for today's start. Does a play on the Yankees F5 make sense or are my thoughts already factored into the price?
I can be a fit, but I don't think the focus has to be narrowed to First Five - the Mariners bullpen is vulnerable right now, with Diaz and Wilhemsen both showing cracks over the past week, and with Martin starting that pen will have to play an active role. Meanwhile Betances is fresh for the Pinstripes, and while the notion of the Yankees and October does not seem to connect up because of the way the season has flowed they are only four games out of a Wild Card spot. At the price point it does not classify as a "bargain", but there is enough handicap to make it workable.
Atlanta at Arizona
Pick: Over
The Braves snapped a seven game losing streak on Sunday, beating the Nationals, 7-6. The Atlanta pitching staff has fallen apart, allowing 42 runs over their last five games.Mike Foltynewicz will try and improve those stats today. Foltynewicz has had trouble getting through innings without a lot of pitches. The righthander has been averaging 17.3 pitches per inning, which places him at the bottom of the efficiency chart. Arizona has won only three of their last 10 games. The D'backs will start Zach Godley tonight. The one-year pro has seven starts and 14 appearances this season. The D'Backs have gone over in Godley's last four starts. In addition, Arizona has gone over 19 of their last 26 home games. The last four meetings between these clubs has resulted in a 3-0-1 O/U mark.
Safeco Field has been an oasis for the New York Yankees in recent seasons, as the Bronx Bombers are 14-3 in their past 17 trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Yankees have won nine of the past 12 meetings against the Mariners overall. Both of these teams have been hot lately, with New York winning four of their past five road games. Michael Pineda faces his original team, and he is enjoying his hottest stretch of the season. The Yankees are 4-1 in his past five starts against a team with a winning record. The M's are 7-1 in their past eight home games against a right-handed starter while going 5-1 in their past six against teams with a winning record and 10-3 in their past 13 against right-handed starting pitchers.
Biggest UNDER run: Athletics (6-0 past six, 12-3 past 15)
The Athletics have struggled offensively, scoring three or fewer runs in three of their past four, and 11 of the past 16 outings. The A's will welcome an Indians team which is also on an 'under' run, cashing in six of the past eight road games. The under is also 6-1 in Carlos Carrasco's past seven road outings, and seven of the past nine road starts by Carrasco against a team with a losing overall record. The under is 4-1 in Oakland's past five against teams with a winning record, 19-7-1 in their past 27 home games agaisnt a right-handed starter and 15-5-1 in their past 21 home games against Cleveland.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (5-2 past seven, 7-1 past eight at home)
The Padres pitching staff has been terrible lately, allowing 45 runs over the past eight outings, and five or more runs in nine of the past 15 games. The last thing their pitching staff needs is a visit from the high-octane Chicago Cubs, a team which is 19-5 over the past 24 games while scoring six or more runs in four of the past five. The Cubs have managed four or more runs in 11 straight games, which certainly bodes well for the 'over'. The over is 2-1 in three meetings this season, and 7-3-1 in the past 11 battles between the two sides.
