08:30 PM NFL [276] PHI EAGLES -4.5 -110
07:35 PM NBA [3504] 1Q Toronto Raptors -5-110
07:00 PM CBB [520] Florida State -9.5 -115
09:00 PM CBB [523] Butler -1-104
08:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Tulsa -3-110
07:00 PM CBB Extra Game [532] Mississippi State -11-110
08:05 PM NHL [4] Saint Louis Blues -155
1 unit bet pays 79 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
TULSA AT ORAL ROBERTS
PLAY: TULSA -1
Pride on the line tonight as neighboring schools Tulsa and Oral Roberts have their annual showdown. It?s a game that has seemingly meant a bit more to the Golden Eagles, and they?ve won three straight in the series. I?m thinking this one might go in favor the Golden Hurricane.
First off, while a good number of the current Tulsa players weren?t around for last year?s 70-68 ORU win, I imagine they all know how it ended. The Eagles got a corner three from Albert Owens that was probably the biggest basket of the game. That?s remarkably notable, because Owens only attempted seven treys over the course of the entire season. He made just one of those seven, and this happened to be that one. Oral Roberts then won the game at the horn and to say they celebrated would be a bit of an understatement.
The revenge motive should be big for Tulsa here, but it?s not like Oral Roberts is going to just surrender as they always want this game. But some personnel issues are factored into my opinion on this game.
Tulsa has improved since junior college transfer Jaleel Wheeler swung into action after missing the team?s first two games. Wheeler has been a definite plus factor and was the best player on the floor in Tulsa?s win over Oregon State.
On the flip side, it appears as though swingman Aaron Anderson might be out for Oral Roberts again. He?s missed the last two games, and while I don?t see Anderson as a vital component, his absence would certainly impact the rotation for the Eagles. Anderson is not listed in the Tulsa World projected starting lineups for this game, so that could indicate he?s out again.
Tulsa is on the uptick following two rough games to start the season. Oral Roberts is struggling, losing all four games to D-1 opposition and getting blown out in three of those outings. I make Tulsa the better team at this point and I have to think they really want to end the streak of futility against the Eagles. I?ll side with Tulsa to win this one.
Do you see much from Northwestern that should concern a play on Wake Forest +4.5?
I get a small chime to the Deacons at +5, but really need +6 to reach towards the pocket. Although I am often hesitant to trust teams in the first true road game Wake may be ready for this, having had an off-season trip that also included 10 extra practices, and then the three games in four days in the Charleston Classic. The caution in terms of playing against Northwestern comes from one of the rules of thumb in this price range - the Wildcats have made 78.6% from the FT line so far, and that may be a genuine team strength this season, with the ball in the hands of Bryant McIntosh (92.9%) and Scottie Lindsey (93.3%) at the end of most games. So the Deacons could play well, and be in the hunt to the final possessions, but then face a difficult closing stretch vs. an opponent that will make their FTs. What I often do for such end-games is reduce the wager amount a bit - it means that if the oddsmakers are correct, and the favorite has a small lead at crunch time, their ability to maximize the closing stage becomes a potential factor.
Butler vs. Utah
Pick: Butler -1
Butler is off to a 6-0 start, including impressive wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona in the Las Vegas Invitational. And the Bulldogs defense is holding opponents to just 41.3 percent from the field. The Bulldogs are getting balanced scoring as Kelan Martin led his team with 16 points against Arizona with Andrew Chrabascz and Avery Woodson contributing 14 and 13 points, respectively. Utah is 4-0 against some weak competition, and this will be the first true test for the Utes, who beat UC Riverside 85-67 on Friday. Lorenzo Bonam scored 21 points, and Kyle Kuzma added 18 points while Devon Daniels scored 14 points and pulled down 11 rebounds against the Highlanders. Utah is in somewhat of a rebuilding mode returning just two starters from last season's 27-9 squad. Butler is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 games overall, and Utah is 3-8 ATS as an underdog dating to last season.
Butler vs. Utah
Play: Butler -2
The Bulldogs are vastly improves this year and stand at 6-0 after knocking off undefeated Arizona last out. They have a solid 14 RPI Scale ranking and a 76th Strength of schedule ranking. They are 15-2 in November and 29-6 vs non conference. Utah has played no one winning 4 home games against complete cream puffs. They have a 351st SOS ranking and 287 in the RPI Scale. They have lost 10 of 14 as a dog and are 1-4 ats vs Big east teams. Play on Butler.
FLORIDA ST -9? over Minnesota
The Golden Gophers come into this game with a 6-0 record, which provides us with an opportunity to sell them at an inflated price. The Gophers have beaten up on six cupcakes and there is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents. When the Gophers defeated the Johnnies 92-86 on November 18, St. John?s hit 29 FG?s in 79 attempts. Playing SIU this past Friday, the Salukis hit 19 of 61 FG?s on the Gophers and lost by 12. The list goes on of opponents missing a ton of looks against the Gophers and it?s not because Minnesota plays great defense. It?s been a simple case of teams missing open shots but the number of shot attempts and free throws against Minnesota is much more revealing and does not paint a pretty picture. The Gophers have some blowout losses coming their way because this is a weak team that pays no attention to defense and has never seen a shot they didn?t like.
At the beginning of February of last year, Florida State looked like an NCAA Tournament team. However, a five-game losing streak during that month ended up dropping the Seminoles to the NIT. The program and Coach Leonard Hamilton have a little reloading to do, but this group will be right back in the mix for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Dwayne Bacon burst onto the scene as a freshman, averaging 15.8 points per game. Bacon has been and will be nearly impossible to contain. The Seminoles are deep with 11 players all averaging more than 10 minutes per game and all five starters averaging over 20 but not more than 26. The Seminoles work to get a high percentage shot and the proof is in the pudding, as eight players have hit 50% or more of their shots. Hamilton is developing a great rotation that just keeps getting better with each passing game and unless things go terribly wrong here, FSU should easily expose these Big-10 imposters.
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play:St Louis -160
REASONING: If you don?t mind laying some juice, we think the home side does in fact offer pretty good value in this spot. Both teams come in off victories, Dallas beating the Canucks 2-1 and St. Louis earning a 4-3 shootout win over the Wild. Dallas though is just 3-8 on the road and has scored two goals or less in regulation in five of its last six. Goaltender Antti Niemi is 0-2 with a 5.55 GAA on the road. Blues? goaltender Jake Allen is 10-6 with a 2.36 GAA this season, including 7-2 with a 1.42 GAA at home.
The bottom line: Note that Dallas is just 2-12 in its last four after allowing two goals or less in its previous game and just 1-7 in its last eight following a win, while St. Louis is 57-14 in its last 71 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We think Allen and the consistent home side are worth the price of admission in this spot.
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play: Under 5?
Most St. Louis O/U lines are set at five. While we have to lay some extra juice, we're able to get this one at 5.5. As you're surely aware, with so many games finishing with precisely five goals, there's a signfiicant difference between five and 5.5. The Blues have only seen two home games (10/25 and 11/5) with totals of 5.5 this season. Both games finished below the number, final combined scores of five and three. Going back further finds the 'under' at 18-7 the last 25 times that the Blues played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. With games here averaging just 4.3 goals this season, those stats have an excellent shot at improving tonight.
Flames vs. Islanders
Pick: Islanders
At first glance, the Isles' 1-6 record in their last seven games would appear to portend a dire situation for the team that has finished with 100 points for two seasons in a row. But when you look a little closer, you will see that New York has just finished a brutal stretch of games over this time - five of which were on the road - including two against the Lightning, and one each against the Penguins, Panthers, Sharks, Kings, and Ducks. Seven of the Isles' next nine games are here at Barclays Center and they will have to make the most of this stretch if they are to climb the ranks of the ultra-tough Metropolitan Division. This game marks the end of the Flames' longest road trip of the season - six games - and while they will no doubt be glad to get back home after tonight, they can't be too disappointed with the results over the last two weeks (5-3 in their last eight). But this is a team that has been largely over-performing lately in the wake of their leading scorer being out for six weeks. It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see them go on a losing streak now. The Flames are 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Isles.
Thunder vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks Pk
The Knicks have covered 6 of their last 7 games but they are off of a SU loss Saturday that was just their 2nd SU loss in their last 7 games. As a result of coming off of a defeat, New York certainly has some extra motivation for this game. The Knicks are catching the Thunder at the right time as Oklahoma City has won and covered two straight games. OKC has NOT covered three straight games yet this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Thunder come into this game feeling a little too good about themselves after back to back wins and the Knicks will be the hungrier team. From a technical standpoint, New York is 7-2 ATS at home this season, 7-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season, and 6-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Thunder are on a 6-17 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, Oklahoma City is on a 3-12 (SU and ATS) run in games where they are a road underdog of 3 points or less.
Utah vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under
The Jazz rank 1st in points allowed (92.8 ) & opponents? FG percentage (42.3)...
The set-up: The 9-8 Utah Jazz will visit the 5-11 Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. The Jazz travel to Minnesota on Monday off one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season, a 95-68 home win against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. Minnesota comes in having dropped four of its last five games
Utah: The Jazz had lost four in a row before rebounding to hold the Denver Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks to an average of 75.5 PPG in back-to-back wins bridging Thanksgiving. "Guys were focused on it," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters after Friday's 95-68 triumph over Atlanta. "It's something that we want to be. We want to be a really good defensive team, and we knew we were playing against the best defensive team in the league. We were focused on being disciplined, and that's the main thing." The team's new PG, George Hill (20.9 PPG) and the team's best player, SF Hayward (20.3 & 7.3), lead five double digit scorers. Hill is averaging 22.5 points on 16-of-27 shooting in two games since returning from a thumb injury but PF Favors has missed five straight games and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Minnesota: The T-wolves own the last two ROY players in Wiggins (23.5) and Towns (21.1 & 9.4) plus LaVine (19.4) has averaged 20.6 points on 47.1 percent shooting over the last five contests. However, head coach Tom Thibodeau is in his first season at Minnesota and the team has yet to figure things out on the defensive end. Minnesota is giving up 103.5 PPG, good for 15th in the league. However, that hardly comes close to matching Utah?s defensive prowess, as the Jazz rank first in points allowed (92.8 ) and opponents? shooting percentage (42.3).
Sacramento vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Rick Adelman led the Kings to the postseason in all eight of his seasons coaching Sacramento but was fired after the 2005-06 season. The Kings haven?t made the playoffs since, entering this season on a 10-year playoff drought. The Kings are 7-10 to open this season but have won three of four, after a 122-105 romp over the Brooklyn Nets Sunday night. The Kings sank 13 of 23 three-pointers and outscored the Nets 34-18 in the third quarter. The Wizards had also won three of four but that was before they ran into the red-hot San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, who won for the ninth straight time, 112-100.
"At the end of the day, it's about defense, and we didn't play it at the end of the day," Washington guard Bradley Beal told reporters after scoring a team-high 25 points. Beal (20.1 PPG) teams with PG Wall (23.5-4.2-8.7) to give Washington one of the league?s best backcourts. In fact, Washington?s starting-five also includes forwards Porter (14.7-8.1) and Morris 912.8-5.7) plus center Gortat (11.3-12.1). There really is no excuse for this team to be 5-10 and it?s something the team's new head coach (Scott Brooks of OKC fame), will have to answer for.
The Kings own two ?big-time? scorers in Cousins (28.3-9.9) and Gay (19.7-6.4) but consistency behind those two is rare. PG Collison missed the first eight games due to a league suspension involving a domestic violence incident and in his nine games back (four starts), he?s scoring 13.7 PPG and adding 5.1 APG. For now however, he?s coming off the bench with Ty Lawson starting at PG.
Sacramento entered this season 51-146 (.259) SU on the road the last five seasons and after last night?s easy win in Brooklyn, will find the going much tougher on back-to-back nights in Washington. Take the home team.
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Jazz -2?
The Utah Jazz are a much better team with George Hill in the lineup than without him. They have gone 6-3 in games in which he has played, and 3-5 without him. Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.9 points per game while shooting 55.2% from the floor and 47.1% from 3-point range.
With Hill back the past two games, the Jazz have arguably played their best two games of the year with a 108-83 home win over Denver and a 95-68 home win over Atlanta. Now they have had two days off since beating the Hawks on Friday. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they are rested and ready to go.
The Timberwolves have fallen short of expectations this season, going just 5-11 overall. They have lost four of their last five and are in a tough spot here. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after playing Golden State on the road Saturday. I always like fading teams after playing the Warriors because it's a natural letdown spot for them.
The Jazz are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Timberwolves, winning by 13, 9 and 13 points. Utah is 17-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last three seasons. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Timberwolves are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hornets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Hornets +1?
This might seem like a favorable spot to back the Grizzlies, who are basically a pick'em at home against the Hornets, who they just recently beat in Charlotte 105-90 back on 11/21. I don't think that's the case, as I look for the Hornets to come out with revenge on their mind and pull off the victory.
In that 15-point road win for Memphis over Charlotte, Mike Conley scored a season-high 31 points, so we can expect some regression this time around. On the flip side of this, the Hornets top two scorers, Walker and Batum shot just 7 of 22 from the field (2-14 from 3-pt) for a combined 25 points. These two can't be any worse and there's a good chance they see a big jump in their output.
Another key here is the Grizzlies will have a much different look this time around. They won't have starter Tyler Ennis or key reserve Zach Randolph. They also continue to play without prized free agent pickup Chandler Parsons. Charlotte on the other hand will have center Tyler Zeller this time around and they are 9-4 when he plays and 0-3 when he doesn't.
Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, while Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record.
Charlotte vs. Memphis
Pick: Charlotte
I feel that the better team is getting points (ever so few) and this is a revenge spot to boot. Last week saw the Grizzlies go to Charlotte and record an outright, 105-90 win as 5.5-pt underdogs. Across the board, the Hornets shot poorly in that game: 41.1% overall, 9 of 31 from 3-pt range and just 64% from the FT line.
I don't anticipate the Hornets shooting that poorly again Monday, so I'll take the points. Charlotte ended a four-game win streak by taking the second game of a home and home w/ the Knicks. They won that game w/ defense, holding NY to 37.8% shooting, and pretty much led throughout. Jeremy Lamb, all 6'5" of him, sure helped by grabbing 17 rebounds. Nick Batum, though listed as questionable w/ an eye injury, is expected to return to the lineup tonight. That would be an additional bonus.
Having won seven of their last eight, Memphis has been a surprise in my eyes. Though their fans have a right to point to the incredible slew of injuries that took place, the Grizzlies were one of the real overachievers in terms of wins & losses in 2015-16. Mike Conley, thus far, has justified the huge contract he received in the offseason w/ three 30+ point games. One of those three came in the 1st meeting vs. the Hornets where Memphis opened up a 24 point lead at halftime and shot 12 of 26 from three-point range. I don't see a repeat of those numbers tonight. The Grizz have still been outscored on a per possession basis this season.
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Play: Toronto -14.5
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Toronto to take on the Raptors on Monday night. Philadelphia is 4-13 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with a 10-6 SU overall record on the season. Philadelphia is 4-28 SU and 9-23 ATS last 3 years against division opponents. Philadelphia is allowing 107.1 points per game overall this year, 114.6 points per game on the road this season and 104 points per game their past 5 games overall. Toronto is scoring 108.3 points per game overall this year, 104.4 points per game at home this season, 109.4 points per game their past 5 games overall and 118 points per game against division opponents this year. Toronto is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS last 3 years overall vs Philadelphia. Philadelphia is off a tough loss against Cleveland yesterday where they led most of the game and playing with no rest while Toronto has had plenty of rest. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Toronto Raptors -15
The Philadelphia 76ers are in an awful spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 11th game in 18 days. They just played the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and they're likely to suffer a hangover here from that narrow loss. Plus they will be without their best player in Joel Embiid as he is expected to rest again on this back-to-back situation, just as he has been doing all season. I love the fact that Toronto never takes Philadelphia lightly. The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the 76ers, winning all 5 games by double-digits. They have won these 5 games by an average of 16.8 points per game. Given the tough spot for the 76ers here, I expect the Raptors to easily win this game and cover this 15-point spread.
The Raptors should be fresh and focused as they did not play Sat or Sun and have tomorrow off before facing the Grizzlies on Wed. It's tough to lay 15 in any game but the 76ers have only stayed within that number once in 5 road games. Or perhaps Raptors 1st Quarter or TT over are a better way to play this?
This is one of those rare situations in which the superior team is allowed to take a bottom-dweller seriously - the Raptors have no particular reason to not play hard tonight. But there is still a focus problem, after they won by 20 and 24 on this court vs. the 76ers last year, and in what is their 12th straight court change there still may be some lingering travel issues. Ultimately it still comes down to the price again, and the problem is that the markets have been reading the situation - this is the highest line for a Philadelphia game this season. I would expect Toronto 1st Quarter to be the best option, since the Raptors have been able to game plan for this one and the 76ers haven't, and Team Total #2 - since Toronto is going to be home for a while, while not give the fans a little bit of a boost by putting on a show.
PHILADELPHIA -4 over Green Bay
Seriously, what is their to like about the Packers here? Green Bay has lost their last four games and are just 1-4 on the road thanks only to the Jaguars in the season opener. Here?s a team that lost at Lambeau to Indy in Week 9 and was subsequently torched in Week?s 10 and 11 by Tennessee and Washington by scores of 47-25 and 42-24 respectively. Yes indeed, the Packers were torched by a Titans team that got extremely lucky to beat the Bears yesterday and if not for a dropped pass in the end zone by an NFL receiver that Bob Barker would have caught, the Titans would?ve lost.
Green Bay will play its third game in a row on the road here and they?ll play their fourth road game in five weeks. The Packers defense has allowed 31 points or more in each of the last four games ? all losses. A team in a stretch like this will usually see its stock drop like crazy but that is not the case with the Packers. This market loves Aaron Rodgers and a good offense and it is seldom on board with giving Rodgers and the Packers points. What is wrong with the Packers this year is the same thing that was wrong with them last year. Jordy Nelson, who in 2014 was the best wide receiver in the NFL, is no longer the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Packers offensive line is awful, their defence cannot stop the run and is getting gashed through the air. The Packs? offensive coordinators have not adjusted to what they?re working with. The Packers last win was five weeks ago against the Bears and they?re not likely to get off the mattress here.
So, while the Packers have been losing to the Colts and Titans among others, Philadelphia?s last seven opponents have been Detroit, Washington, Minnesota, Dallas, the Giants, Atlanta and Seattle with five of those being on the road. The Eagles last two home games were against the Vikes and Falcons and Philly won them both, 21-10 and 24-15, respectively. They have played two other home games and they?re 2-0 in those games also woth a 34-3 victory over the Steelers and an opening day win over the Brownies, 29-10. The Eagles ground attack is one of the best in the game, which in turn makes life so much easier for rookie QB, Carson Wentz. Still, Wentz has been very good at home.
What's less widely understood is that Green Bay is not what it used to be and neither is Aaron Rodgers. This Packers? squad isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just flopped in one and now the market is overlooking that and it is also overlooking the fact that the Eagles have been near flawless at home. Lay the points.
Oklahoma City +1
I see a class difference here. Derrick Rose is still getting acclimated to his new team while Russell Westbrook has become the new Oscar Robertson averaging 31 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds.
Oklahoma City holds a strong rebounding edge along with Westbrook's overall dominance.
The Knicks have won six in a row at home. However, those victories have come against the Nets, Pistons - a horrible road team - Mavericks, slumping Hawks, Trail Blazers - who were playing their fourth road game in six days - and Hornets in overtime.
I don't see the Knicks stepping up here.
07:35 PM NBA [3504] 1Q Toronto Raptors -5-110
07:00 PM CBB [520] Florida State -9.5 -115
09:00 PM CBB [523] Butler -1-104
08:00 PM CBB Added Game [529] Tulsa -3-110
07:00 PM CBB Extra Game [532] Mississippi State -11-110
08:05 PM NHL [4] Saint Louis Blues -155
1 unit bet pays 79 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
TULSA AT ORAL ROBERTS
PLAY: TULSA -1
Pride on the line tonight as neighboring schools Tulsa and Oral Roberts have their annual showdown. It?s a game that has seemingly meant a bit more to the Golden Eagles, and they?ve won three straight in the series. I?m thinking this one might go in favor the Golden Hurricane.
First off, while a good number of the current Tulsa players weren?t around for last year?s 70-68 ORU win, I imagine they all know how it ended. The Eagles got a corner three from Albert Owens that was probably the biggest basket of the game. That?s remarkably notable, because Owens only attempted seven treys over the course of the entire season. He made just one of those seven, and this happened to be that one. Oral Roberts then won the game at the horn and to say they celebrated would be a bit of an understatement.
The revenge motive should be big for Tulsa here, but it?s not like Oral Roberts is going to just surrender as they always want this game. But some personnel issues are factored into my opinion on this game.
Tulsa has improved since junior college transfer Jaleel Wheeler swung into action after missing the team?s first two games. Wheeler has been a definite plus factor and was the best player on the floor in Tulsa?s win over Oregon State.
On the flip side, it appears as though swingman Aaron Anderson might be out for Oral Roberts again. He?s missed the last two games, and while I don?t see Anderson as a vital component, his absence would certainly impact the rotation for the Eagles. Anderson is not listed in the Tulsa World projected starting lineups for this game, so that could indicate he?s out again.
Tulsa is on the uptick following two rough games to start the season. Oral Roberts is struggling, losing all four games to D-1 opposition and getting blown out in three of those outings. I make Tulsa the better team at this point and I have to think they really want to end the streak of futility against the Eagles. I?ll side with Tulsa to win this one.
Do you see much from Northwestern that should concern a play on Wake Forest +4.5?
I get a small chime to the Deacons at +5, but really need +6 to reach towards the pocket. Although I am often hesitant to trust teams in the first true road game Wake may be ready for this, having had an off-season trip that also included 10 extra practices, and then the three games in four days in the Charleston Classic. The caution in terms of playing against Northwestern comes from one of the rules of thumb in this price range - the Wildcats have made 78.6% from the FT line so far, and that may be a genuine team strength this season, with the ball in the hands of Bryant McIntosh (92.9%) and Scottie Lindsey (93.3%) at the end of most games. So the Deacons could play well, and be in the hunt to the final possessions, but then face a difficult closing stretch vs. an opponent that will make their FTs. What I often do for such end-games is reduce the wager amount a bit - it means that if the oddsmakers are correct, and the favorite has a small lead at crunch time, their ability to maximize the closing stage becomes a potential factor.
Butler vs. Utah
Pick: Butler -1
Butler is off to a 6-0 start, including impressive wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona in the Las Vegas Invitational. And the Bulldogs defense is holding opponents to just 41.3 percent from the field. The Bulldogs are getting balanced scoring as Kelan Martin led his team with 16 points against Arizona with Andrew Chrabascz and Avery Woodson contributing 14 and 13 points, respectively. Utah is 4-0 against some weak competition, and this will be the first true test for the Utes, who beat UC Riverside 85-67 on Friday. Lorenzo Bonam scored 21 points, and Kyle Kuzma added 18 points while Devon Daniels scored 14 points and pulled down 11 rebounds against the Highlanders. Utah is in somewhat of a rebuilding mode returning just two starters from last season's 27-9 squad. Butler is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 games overall, and Utah is 3-8 ATS as an underdog dating to last season.
Butler vs. Utah
Play: Butler -2
The Bulldogs are vastly improves this year and stand at 6-0 after knocking off undefeated Arizona last out. They have a solid 14 RPI Scale ranking and a 76th Strength of schedule ranking. They are 15-2 in November and 29-6 vs non conference. Utah has played no one winning 4 home games against complete cream puffs. They have a 351st SOS ranking and 287 in the RPI Scale. They have lost 10 of 14 as a dog and are 1-4 ats vs Big east teams. Play on Butler.
FLORIDA ST -9? over Minnesota
The Golden Gophers come into this game with a 6-0 record, which provides us with an opportunity to sell them at an inflated price. The Gophers have beaten up on six cupcakes and there is a price to pay for scheduling games against weak opponents. When the Gophers defeated the Johnnies 92-86 on November 18, St. John?s hit 29 FG?s in 79 attempts. Playing SIU this past Friday, the Salukis hit 19 of 61 FG?s on the Gophers and lost by 12. The list goes on of opponents missing a ton of looks against the Gophers and it?s not because Minnesota plays great defense. It?s been a simple case of teams missing open shots but the number of shot attempts and free throws against Minnesota is much more revealing and does not paint a pretty picture. The Gophers have some blowout losses coming their way because this is a weak team that pays no attention to defense and has never seen a shot they didn?t like.
At the beginning of February of last year, Florida State looked like an NCAA Tournament team. However, a five-game losing streak during that month ended up dropping the Seminoles to the NIT. The program and Coach Leonard Hamilton have a little reloading to do, but this group will be right back in the mix for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. Dwayne Bacon burst onto the scene as a freshman, averaging 15.8 points per game. Bacon has been and will be nearly impossible to contain. The Seminoles are deep with 11 players all averaging more than 10 minutes per game and all five starters averaging over 20 but not more than 26. The Seminoles work to get a high percentage shot and the proof is in the pudding, as eight players have hit 50% or more of their shots. Hamilton is developing a great rotation that just keeps getting better with each passing game and unless things go terribly wrong here, FSU should easily expose these Big-10 imposters.
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play:St Louis -160
REASONING: If you don?t mind laying some juice, we think the home side does in fact offer pretty good value in this spot. Both teams come in off victories, Dallas beating the Canucks 2-1 and St. Louis earning a 4-3 shootout win over the Wild. Dallas though is just 3-8 on the road and has scored two goals or less in regulation in five of its last six. Goaltender Antti Niemi is 0-2 with a 5.55 GAA on the road. Blues? goaltender Jake Allen is 10-6 with a 2.36 GAA this season, including 7-2 with a 1.42 GAA at home.
The bottom line: Note that Dallas is just 2-12 in its last four after allowing two goals or less in its previous game and just 1-7 in its last eight following a win, while St. Louis is 57-14 in its last 71 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We think Allen and the consistent home side are worth the price of admission in this spot.
Dallas vs. St Louis
Play: Under 5?
Most St. Louis O/U lines are set at five. While we have to lay some extra juice, we're able to get this one at 5.5. As you're surely aware, with so many games finishing with precisely five goals, there's a signfiicant difference between five and 5.5. The Blues have only seen two home games (10/25 and 11/5) with totals of 5.5 this season. Both games finished below the number, final combined scores of five and three. Going back further finds the 'under' at 18-7 the last 25 times that the Blues played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5. With games here averaging just 4.3 goals this season, those stats have an excellent shot at improving tonight.
Flames vs. Islanders
Pick: Islanders
At first glance, the Isles' 1-6 record in their last seven games would appear to portend a dire situation for the team that has finished with 100 points for two seasons in a row. But when you look a little closer, you will see that New York has just finished a brutal stretch of games over this time - five of which were on the road - including two against the Lightning, and one each against the Penguins, Panthers, Sharks, Kings, and Ducks. Seven of the Isles' next nine games are here at Barclays Center and they will have to make the most of this stretch if they are to climb the ranks of the ultra-tough Metropolitan Division. This game marks the end of the Flames' longest road trip of the season - six games - and while they will no doubt be glad to get back home after tonight, they can't be too disappointed with the results over the last two weeks (5-3 in their last eight). But this is a team that has been largely over-performing lately in the wake of their leading scorer being out for six weeks. It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see them go on a losing streak now. The Flames are 0-4 in the last four meetings with the Isles.
Thunder vs. Knicks
Play: Knicks Pk
The Knicks have covered 6 of their last 7 games but they are off of a SU loss Saturday that was just their 2nd SU loss in their last 7 games. As a result of coming off of a defeat, New York certainly has some extra motivation for this game. The Knicks are catching the Thunder at the right time as Oklahoma City has won and covered two straight games. OKC has NOT covered three straight games yet this season and I don't expect that to change here. The Thunder come into this game feeling a little too good about themselves after back to back wins and the Knicks will be the hungrier team. From a technical standpoint, New York is 7-2 ATS at home this season, 7-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season, and 6-1 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Thunder are on a 6-17 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, Oklahoma City is on a 3-12 (SU and ATS) run in games where they are a road underdog of 3 points or less.
Utah vs. Minnesota
Pick: Under
The Jazz rank 1st in points allowed (92.8 ) & opponents? FG percentage (42.3)...
The set-up: The 9-8 Utah Jazz will visit the 5-11 Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. The Jazz travel to Minnesota on Monday off one of the most impressive defensive performances of the season, a 95-68 home win against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. Minnesota comes in having dropped four of its last five games
Utah: The Jazz had lost four in a row before rebounding to hold the Denver Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks to an average of 75.5 PPG in back-to-back wins bridging Thanksgiving. "Guys were focused on it," Jazz head coach Quin Snyder told reporters after Friday's 95-68 triumph over Atlanta. "It's something that we want to be. We want to be a really good defensive team, and we knew we were playing against the best defensive team in the league. We were focused on being disciplined, and that's the main thing." The team's new PG, George Hill (20.9 PPG) and the team's best player, SF Hayward (20.3 & 7.3), lead five double digit scorers. Hill is averaging 22.5 points on 16-of-27 shooting in two games since returning from a thumb injury but PF Favors has missed five straight games and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury.
Minnesota: The T-wolves own the last two ROY players in Wiggins (23.5) and Towns (21.1 & 9.4) plus LaVine (19.4) has averaged 20.6 points on 47.1 percent shooting over the last five contests. However, head coach Tom Thibodeau is in his first season at Minnesota and the team has yet to figure things out on the defensive end. Minnesota is giving up 103.5 PPG, good for 15th in the league. However, that hardly comes close to matching Utah?s defensive prowess, as the Jazz rank first in points allowed (92.8 ) and opponents? shooting percentage (42.3).
Sacramento vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
Rick Adelman led the Kings to the postseason in all eight of his seasons coaching Sacramento but was fired after the 2005-06 season. The Kings haven?t made the playoffs since, entering this season on a 10-year playoff drought. The Kings are 7-10 to open this season but have won three of four, after a 122-105 romp over the Brooklyn Nets Sunday night. The Kings sank 13 of 23 three-pointers and outscored the Nets 34-18 in the third quarter. The Wizards had also won three of four but that was before they ran into the red-hot San Antonio Spurs on Saturday, who won for the ninth straight time, 112-100.
"At the end of the day, it's about defense, and we didn't play it at the end of the day," Washington guard Bradley Beal told reporters after scoring a team-high 25 points. Beal (20.1 PPG) teams with PG Wall (23.5-4.2-8.7) to give Washington one of the league?s best backcourts. In fact, Washington?s starting-five also includes forwards Porter (14.7-8.1) and Morris 912.8-5.7) plus center Gortat (11.3-12.1). There really is no excuse for this team to be 5-10 and it?s something the team's new head coach (Scott Brooks of OKC fame), will have to answer for.
The Kings own two ?big-time? scorers in Cousins (28.3-9.9) and Gay (19.7-6.4) but consistency behind those two is rare. PG Collison missed the first eight games due to a league suspension involving a domestic violence incident and in his nine games back (four starts), he?s scoring 13.7 PPG and adding 5.1 APG. For now however, he?s coming off the bench with Ty Lawson starting at PG.
Sacramento entered this season 51-146 (.259) SU on the road the last five seasons and after last night?s easy win in Brooklyn, will find the going much tougher on back-to-back nights in Washington. Take the home team.
Jazz vs. Wolves
Play: Jazz -2?
The Utah Jazz are a much better team with George Hill in the lineup than without him. They have gone 6-3 in games in which he has played, and 3-5 without him. Hill leads the team in scoring at 20.9 points per game while shooting 55.2% from the floor and 47.1% from 3-point range.
With Hill back the past two games, the Jazz have arguably played their best two games of the year with a 108-83 home win over Denver and a 95-68 home win over Atlanta. Now they have had two days off since beating the Hawks on Friday. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they are rested and ready to go.
The Timberwolves have fallen short of expectations this season, going just 5-11 overall. They have lost four of their last five and are in a tough spot here. They will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days after playing Golden State on the road Saturday. I always like fading teams after playing the Warriors because it's a natural letdown spot for them.
The Jazz are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Timberwolves, winning by 13, 9 and 13 points. Utah is 17-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last three seasons. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Timberwolves are 18-37-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Hornets vs. Grizzlies
Play: Hornets +1?
This might seem like a favorable spot to back the Grizzlies, who are basically a pick'em at home against the Hornets, who they just recently beat in Charlotte 105-90 back on 11/21. I don't think that's the case, as I look for the Hornets to come out with revenge on their mind and pull off the victory.
In that 15-point road win for Memphis over Charlotte, Mike Conley scored a season-high 31 points, so we can expect some regression this time around. On the flip side of this, the Hornets top two scorers, Walker and Batum shot just 7 of 22 from the field (2-14 from 3-pt) for a combined 25 points. These two can't be any worse and there's a good chance they see a big jump in their output.
Another key here is the Grizzlies will have a much different look this time around. They won't have starter Tyler Ennis or key reserve Zach Randolph. They also continue to play without prized free agent pickup Chandler Parsons. Charlotte on the other hand will have center Tyler Zeller this time around and they are 9-4 when he plays and 0-3 when he doesn't.
Hornets are 28-15 ATS in their last 43 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, while Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home against a team with a winning road record.
Charlotte vs. Memphis
Pick: Charlotte
I feel that the better team is getting points (ever so few) and this is a revenge spot to boot. Last week saw the Grizzlies go to Charlotte and record an outright, 105-90 win as 5.5-pt underdogs. Across the board, the Hornets shot poorly in that game: 41.1% overall, 9 of 31 from 3-pt range and just 64% from the FT line.
I don't anticipate the Hornets shooting that poorly again Monday, so I'll take the points. Charlotte ended a four-game win streak by taking the second game of a home and home w/ the Knicks. They won that game w/ defense, holding NY to 37.8% shooting, and pretty much led throughout. Jeremy Lamb, all 6'5" of him, sure helped by grabbing 17 rebounds. Nick Batum, though listed as questionable w/ an eye injury, is expected to return to the lineup tonight. That would be an additional bonus.
Having won seven of their last eight, Memphis has been a surprise in my eyes. Though their fans have a right to point to the incredible slew of injuries that took place, the Grizzlies were one of the real overachievers in terms of wins & losses in 2015-16. Mike Conley, thus far, has justified the huge contract he received in the offseason w/ three 30+ point games. One of those three came in the 1st meeting vs. the Hornets where Memphis opened up a 24 point lead at halftime and shot 12 of 26 from three-point range. I don't see a repeat of those numbers tonight. The Grizz have still been outscored on a per possession basis this season.
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Play: Toronto -14.5
The Philadelphia 76ers travel to Toronto to take on the Raptors on Monday night. Philadelphia is 4-13 SU overall this year while Toronto comes in with a 10-6 SU overall record on the season. Philadelphia is 4-28 SU and 9-23 ATS last 3 years against division opponents. Philadelphia is allowing 107.1 points per game overall this year, 114.6 points per game on the road this season and 104 points per game their past 5 games overall. Toronto is scoring 108.3 points per game overall this year, 104.4 points per game at home this season, 109.4 points per game their past 5 games overall and 118 points per game against division opponents this year. Toronto is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS last 3 years overall vs Philadelphia. Philadelphia is off a tough loss against Cleveland yesterday where they led most of the game and playing with no rest while Toronto has had plenty of rest. We'll recommend a small play on Toronto tonight!
Toronto Raptors -15
The Philadelphia 76ers are in an awful spot here. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 11th game in 18 days. They just played the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers last night, and they're likely to suffer a hangover here from that narrow loss. Plus they will be without their best player in Joel Embiid as he is expected to rest again on this back-to-back situation, just as he has been doing all season. I love the fact that Toronto never takes Philadelphia lightly. The Raptors are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the 76ers, winning all 5 games by double-digits. They have won these 5 games by an average of 16.8 points per game. Given the tough spot for the 76ers here, I expect the Raptors to easily win this game and cover this 15-point spread.
The Raptors should be fresh and focused as they did not play Sat or Sun and have tomorrow off before facing the Grizzlies on Wed. It's tough to lay 15 in any game but the 76ers have only stayed within that number once in 5 road games. Or perhaps Raptors 1st Quarter or TT over are a better way to play this?
This is one of those rare situations in which the superior team is allowed to take a bottom-dweller seriously - the Raptors have no particular reason to not play hard tonight. But there is still a focus problem, after they won by 20 and 24 on this court vs. the 76ers last year, and in what is their 12th straight court change there still may be some lingering travel issues. Ultimately it still comes down to the price again, and the problem is that the markets have been reading the situation - this is the highest line for a Philadelphia game this season. I would expect Toronto 1st Quarter to be the best option, since the Raptors have been able to game plan for this one and the 76ers haven't, and Team Total #2 - since Toronto is going to be home for a while, while not give the fans a little bit of a boost by putting on a show.
PHILADELPHIA -4 over Green Bay
Seriously, what is their to like about the Packers here? Green Bay has lost their last four games and are just 1-4 on the road thanks only to the Jaguars in the season opener. Here?s a team that lost at Lambeau to Indy in Week 9 and was subsequently torched in Week?s 10 and 11 by Tennessee and Washington by scores of 47-25 and 42-24 respectively. Yes indeed, the Packers were torched by a Titans team that got extremely lucky to beat the Bears yesterday and if not for a dropped pass in the end zone by an NFL receiver that Bob Barker would have caught, the Titans would?ve lost.
Green Bay will play its third game in a row on the road here and they?ll play their fourth road game in five weeks. The Packers defense has allowed 31 points or more in each of the last four games ? all losses. A team in a stretch like this will usually see its stock drop like crazy but that is not the case with the Packers. This market loves Aaron Rodgers and a good offense and it is seldom on board with giving Rodgers and the Packers points. What is wrong with the Packers this year is the same thing that was wrong with them last year. Jordy Nelson, who in 2014 was the best wide receiver in the NFL, is no longer the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Packers offensive line is awful, their defence cannot stop the run and is getting gashed through the air. The Packs? offensive coordinators have not adjusted to what they?re working with. The Packers last win was five weeks ago against the Bears and they?re not likely to get off the mattress here.
So, while the Packers have been losing to the Colts and Titans among others, Philadelphia?s last seven opponents have been Detroit, Washington, Minnesota, Dallas, the Giants, Atlanta and Seattle with five of those being on the road. The Eagles last two home games were against the Vikes and Falcons and Philly won them both, 21-10 and 24-15, respectively. They have played two other home games and they?re 2-0 in those games also woth a 34-3 victory over the Steelers and an opening day win over the Brownies, 29-10. The Eagles ground attack is one of the best in the game, which in turn makes life so much easier for rookie QB, Carson Wentz. Still, Wentz has been very good at home.
What's less widely understood is that Green Bay is not what it used to be and neither is Aaron Rodgers. This Packers? squad isn't braced for a big statement game; instead, it just flopped in one and now the market is overlooking that and it is also overlooking the fact that the Eagles have been near flawless at home. Lay the points.
Oklahoma City +1
I see a class difference here. Derrick Rose is still getting acclimated to his new team while Russell Westbrook has become the new Oscar Robertson averaging 31 points, 11 assists and 9.9 rebounds.
Oklahoma City holds a strong rebounding edge along with Westbrook's overall dominance.
The Knicks have won six in a row at home. However, those victories have come against the Nets, Pistons - a horrible road team - Mavericks, slumping Hawks, Trail Blazers - who were playing their fourth road game in six days - and Hornets in overtime.
I don't see the Knicks stepping up here.
