07:05 PM NBA [504] TOTAL u222.5 -110 (Los Angeles Lakers vrs New York Knicks)
07:35 PM NBA [508] Toronto Raptors -6-110
08:05 PM NBA [513] TOTAL o204.5 -110 (Miami Heat vrs Minnesota Timberwolves)
10:35 PM NBA [522] TOTAL u204-110 (Chicago Bulls vrs Sacramento Kings)
08:00 PM CBB [524] Arkansas State -7.5 -105
09:00 PM CBB [533] Kansas -2.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [52] TOTAL u5.5 -115 (Saint Louis Blues vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
07:05 PM NHL [53] TOTAL o6+100 (Toronto Maple Leafs vrs New York Islanders)
07:05 PM NHL [56] New Jersey Devils -125
1 unit bet pays 332....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Dallas vs. Denver
Play: Denver -2?
Though the Mavericks have gotten healthier and are playing much better basketball, they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Playing in the thin air of Denver is always tough on road foes but it is especially tough when the Nuggets are off of an ugly loss and will come out fired up to respond. After getting hammered by two dozen points at San Antonio Saturday, Denver will respond at home tonight. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less and Denver also was on a 9-3 ATS run before the ugly loss to the Spurs. The home team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and the two games this season have both been decided by double digit margins. Only 1 of the last 6 meetings has been decided by less than 6 points. The number on tonight's game is certainly "small chalk" to lay when you consider the home dominance in this match-ups. We are getting a manageable number here because of the Mavs recent hot play but Dallas is still just 2-2 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games. The Mavericks are also 4-8 SU this season when off of an upset win as an underdog and they are 15-22 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game they won outright as a dog. The Nuggets will prove to be the hungrier team tonight and they've been the much stronger team on the boards in comparison with Dallas. Look for the home team to dominate the glass in this one.
In the Sights, Monday NBA?
The Wizards have been a discussion topic across the on-going threads several times over the past month, their run now at 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS at home. They step on to that court again tonight in first place in the Southeast Division, and also just 4.5 games out of the top seed in the Eastern Conference, yet the markets continue to lag in making the proper adjustments. That will put #502 Washington (7:05 Eastern) into play, with a little bit of pick?em out there this morning, and this one good to -1.
To get the best feel for the current state of affairs with these teams let?s go to the post-Christmas cycle, a meaningful span of 21 games for the Wizards and 20 for the Cavaliers -
W/L ATS O/100 D/100 Net
WIZ 17-4 16-5 110.7 102.6 +8.1
CAVS 11-9 6-13-1 107.5 107.7 -.2
Washington has been the #3 team in the NBA across this stretch, trailing only the Warriors and Spurs, while Cleveland has naturally been right in the middle of the pack with those numbers. The Wizards have been significantly better both offensively and defensively, and there is a gap in team chemistry, Scott Brooks having his rotation playing tight and with a superb focus (the defense in shutting downing New Orleans 25-8 in the fourth quarter on Saturday a great sign), while Tyronn Lue is still trying to figure things out.
Here is an added flag on the Cavaliers ? their recent struggles have come through a soft schedule cycle. Six of their last seven games were against teams that are at least eight games under .500, and the OKC team that had the lone winning record was also gassed on that particular day. And Cleveland has only played two road games against winning teams over the last two full months, going 0-2 SU and ATS and falling to the spread by 35 points (you will see a third game that would seem to qualify at Memphis on December 14, but that was without James/Irving/Love so I don?t track it). LeBron can always step up and have a big game to wreck these plans, and his head-to-head vs. the emerging Otto Porter will be fascinating to watch, but for now this is not the proper price range for these teams.
Cavs vs. Wizards
Play: Under 220
Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
Cleveland at Washington
Play: Washington +1?
Washington comes in with a ton of momentum, it?s won seven straight and 17 consecutive in front of the home town crowd. Now it gets to avenge a 105-94 setback to Cleveland at home back on November 11th. The Cavs average 110 PPG, while the Wizards average 107. Cleveland allows 104.8, while Washington allows 104.7. Note that the Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS as underdogs this season, while the Wizards are 18-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
Heat vs. Wolves
Play: Heat Pk
The Heat have came out of nowhere to go 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games and I'm willing to jump on this hot streak and back Miami at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are trending in the opposite direction. They have lost 3 straight and are a miserable 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. It's been a disappointing year for Minnesota and it got worse recently when they found out Zach LaVine is out for the season. I also think this is a good matchup for Miami, as they have the talent in Whiteside to counter Karl-Anthony Towns. Wolves are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.
Miami / Minnesota Over 205
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage.
The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games.
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory at home here Monday night against the Phoenix Suns. They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road. Two were against the hottest team in the NBA in the Wizards, while the other two were against the Pistons and Raptors.
But now the Pelicans get a break in their schedule as they face the lowly Phoenix Suns, who are just 16-35 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games coming in. Their only victory came against the Sacramento Kings by a final of 105-103. Their last four losses have all come by double-digits.
The Suns are a tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Meanwhile, this will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Pelicans, so they own a clear scheduling advantage in tonight's matchup.
The Suns are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.
San Antonio vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The rodeo comes to San Antonio every year at this time and for the last 14 years, the Spurs have turned a negative into a positive. San Antonio began with an 8-1 trip back in 2003 and check in at 82-35 overall, experiencing just one losing trip in that span, two years ago when the team went 4-5 (Spurs bounced back to go 7-1 last season!). This year's trip will encompass 7,378 miles and three time zones.
The Spurs have been great on the road so far this season, kicking off their latest "Rockin' Rodeo Road Trip" (as coined in the team's game notes) with a 20-4 SU & 15-8-1 ATS record in road games, so far this season. However, this marks the first time the Spurs will be going on this trip without Tim Duncan. As for Parker and Ginobili, they are now more role players than stars, as Parker averages 11.1 PPG and 4.7 APG in about 25 MPG (37 games) and Ginobili 8.1-2.4-2.4 in just under 19 minutes in playing 43 games. SF Leonard (25.3 & 5.8 ) and PF Aldridge (17.5 & 7.2) are now the stars. Yes the Spurs still own great depth but they miss center Gasol (11.7 & 7.9), who won't be back until late February or early March.
The Grizzlies were able to cap a six-game road trip at 4-2 by rallying from an 18-point deficit for a 107-99 victory in Minnesota on Saturday. Memphis averaged 109.0 PPG on 47.9 percent shooting on their trip and are well-aware of the Spurs ability to win on the road (or anywhere for that matter), as the Grizzlies return home. In fact, San Antonio has won five straight meetings with Memphis and 16 of the last 20.
However, All-Star center Marc Gasol (21.0 & 6.0) and guard Tony Allen (9.4 PPG and the team's best perimeter defender) were held out of Saturday's game, so both will be fresh for this one. PF Randolph asked for more "PT" and he responded by averaging 16.1 & 9.5 in January. PG Conley didn't make the All Star squad but he's averaging a career-best 19.7 PPG. Never really totally comfortable going against the Spurs but I will take the home team in this one.
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -4
Both teams play outstanding basketball on the defensive end, but Virginia certainly didn't live up to its rep in the second half of their weekend loss at Syracuse. The Cavaliers led 34-22 at halftime, but Syracuse opened up the floor to start the second half and finished making 73.7% of their FGA over the final 20 minutes, including 67% of their 3-pointers. Tony Bennett will be looking for his troops to clamp down on the defensive end in this one and I suspect they will. The Cavaliers have presented Rick Pitino with scheme and matchup problems, beating Louisville in four of the last five meetings. The Cardinals are on a 3-game winning and covering streak, but the competition gets much tougher tonight. Louisville enters on a 1-6-1 ATS slide as a road dog, while UVA is on a 7-0, 100% ATS run as a home favorite of less than seven points.
Monmouth as they make the short drive to Rider and gain revenge on a Broncos team that dumped them 93-90 in overtime on New Year's Eve in West Long Branch in a game the Hawks were listed as the -13 1/2 point chalk.
Monmouth is seeking their 20th win of the season, and while they have won 9 straight, the Hawks are just 4-5 against the spread in those 9 victories.
Rider though, has been sliding as we head towards the end of the regular season, as the Broncs have dropped 6 of their last 8 games both straight up and against the spread.
The Broncos are also just 2-4 straight up the last 6 times they have faced Monmouth, failing 2 of the last 3 against the spread.
I say lay it with Monmouth as they hit the 20-win plateau with a ringing road win and cover.
4* MONMOUTH
Item: How much will fatigue matter in Manhattan
Passions tend to run high when the Jayhawks and Wildcats square off, and one might expect them to be even more fever-pitched this evening, a rematch from an intense 90-88 Kansas win in Lawrence in this season?s first go-round, when State players, coaches and fans believed that Svi Mykhiliuk traveled on that final possession.
He did, of course, which you can watch here -
But while the passions may indeed run high, what about the physical energy? Both teams come off of draining Saturday outings, Kansas seeing that 51-game win streak at Phog Allen Fieldhouse in a 92-89 overtime defeat vs. Iowa State, and Kansas State beating #2-ranked Baylor 56-54 on the road. Let?s stake a look at the minute counts for the starting fives, each putting in yeoman?s efforts ?
Total Starters
K State 200 179
Kansas 225 199
Four of the five Kansas starters went at least the full 40 that regulation usually entails.
Now consider this for a moment - were each of the teams already tired on Saturday? Kansas was off of a grueling cycle of playing at Kentucky the previous Saturday, and then beating Baylor in a close Wednesday game. State had played at Tennessee the previous Saturday, before being taken to OT in a home loss to TCU on Wednesday. How much did that matter Saturday? Kansas led by 14 at halftime vs. Iowa State and wore down late; State led Baylor by 15 at halftime and was just hanging on for dear life at the end.
The players are going to want to bring it tonight, the question is just how much they have to bring.
In basketball, does being tired bother teams more on the offensive side or defensive side of the game? Do tired bodies lag on defense or do tired arms stuggle with shooting or a combination of both? In general would you look to more scoring or less scoring in fatigue matchups? Thanks
No easy answer here - it tends to come down to style. Pressing defenses get bothered more by fatigue than those that favor half-court sets; teams that rely more on long jumpers show more signs than those that can score around the basket. But weighted against that is always what adrenaline can mean for young athletes. Tonight is a good example - Kansas and Kansas State will show fatigue, but likely less than if they weren't playing each other, which adds a layer of energy to the proceedings.
Here is the old classic from Marv Harshman, who was a Pac 12 head coach at Washington State and Washington for 28 years, on why he preferred to recruit size instead of speed - "Quick guys get tired, big guys don't shrink." That is a generalization, of course, but there are some degrees of science and logic to it.
Now an update on Kansas/Kansas State that does matter - Bill Self has re-instated 6-10 sophomore Carlton Bragg Jr. for tonight, after sitting out three games via suspension. Not only does that help a team that lacks depth, but Bragg has been a difference maker on the floor - although he only averages 15.0 minutes per game, he has produced 6.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg in those stints.
Holy Cross +10? over BUCKNELL
Holy Cross is the defending Patriot League champion that fought its way to the Men?s Basketball Tournament in the most candid of ways in the 2015-16 season by qualifying in what was nothing short of an ugly duckling turning into a Beautiful Swan story. The Crusaders? path to greatness began after they finished their regular season 10-19 with an abysmal defeat at Boston University. Holy Cross had to essentially play in to the Quarterfinals of the Patriot League tournament by virtue of taking down the #8 seed Loyola, Maryland (a team that defeated them twice by considerable margins in the 2015-16 regular season) before they would ignite and take down this Bucknell team in overtime who was the #1 seed in that format. The rest is history, as the Crusaders would complete the run and capture the Patriot League title, reinforcing the notion that truly anything can happen in college hoops and/or in a one and done scenario. However, it didn?t end there. Holy Cross had to leave Worcester, Massachusetts and take on Southern University in a play-in game to the Men?s Basketball Tournament in Dayton, Ohio. Once again, the Crusaders would prevail and earn a first round date with #1 seed Oregon before the Ducks would send them on their way. That?s a brief history lesson on the Crusaders that nobody really cares about. We don?t either, as this wager is all about value and thus, the fade on the favorite is on.
As for history lessons, well, the Bison have been a consistent player in vying for the Men?s Basketball Tournament on an annual basis and have even pulled off one of the all-time classic upsets when they took down Kansas in the First Round in the 2005 Dance. Bucknell?s overall dominance of the Patriot League so far this season has been impressive. The Bison steamrolled the Crusaders in the revenge match (from being knocked out last year) so they already have that out of the way and now this team seems to be on a mission to avenge what they should have had last season. Bucknell comes in at 10-1 in conference play and 18-6 overall, which is far more appealing to the 12-12 record of Holy Cross who sit sixth currently in the Patriot League standings. Despite the notoriety that Bucknell has gained as a projected #14 seed in the Big Dance according to many bracketologists, the Bison are just 1-0 ATS. That one ATS victory came as an outright victor against Vanderbilt in November 2016 as a 12-point pup. While we haven?t seen Bucknell for sale since then, it has nonetheless emerged on the national radar and you know our stance on that. Bucknell?s current prominence means that if you bet them here, you would be paying a premium to do so and we look to take inflated points and not spot them. That applies here.
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Louisville +6.5
The Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, including going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six ACC affairs, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road tilts and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20-plus points. Louisville is also a profitable 37-20-1 ATS as a conference underdog versus .800 or greater opponents, including 8-1 ATS when avenging a loss of five or more points.
Louisville takes the floor boasting an impressive 18-5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog off consecutive wins and has won its previous three games by a combined 98 points! The Cardinals are an extremely well-balanced squad, rating 8.0 points per game better than average offensively (78.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.5 points per game) and 13.9 points per game better than average defensively (62.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 76.2 points per game).
Over its last five games, Louisville is averaging an incredible 88.2 points on 52.1% shooting from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc. Over that same period of time, the Cardinals are limiting opponents to just 37.5% shooting from the floor and 27.4% from three-point territory. Let's also note that the Cardinals are 7-3 SU and ATS in conference play wherein they are averaging 79.2 points per per game (47.8% FG%; 38.9% 3-PT%).
Virginia enters tonight's game with a pedestrian attack that is 0.8 points per game worse than average (68.9 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.7 points per game. The Cavaliers' offense isn't much better at home where they are averaging just 69.9 points per game. Even worse news for Virginia backers is the fact that head coach Tony Bennett's squad is trending in the wrong direction, averaging a pathetic 65.0 points over its last five contests.
The reason why I have backed off making Louisville a Best Bet is the fact that two players - forwards Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel - are suspended for tonight's game. Adel is averaging 11.1 points in 28:23 minutes per game, while Mathiang is averaging 7.1 points in 19:39 minutes per game. These suspensions come on the heels of losing guard Quentin Snider, who remains out with a hip flexor strain. In 18 games this season, Snider was averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game.
KANSAS ST +3 over Kansas
As a perennial college hoops powerhouse, it?s no shock to see Kansas once again ranked in the top three but the Jayhawks are in the middle of a crucial part of their conference schedule. Kansas has wins over #15 Kentucky and number #4 Baylor in two of their last three games but had their 54-game home win streak ended by Iowa State on Saturday. A loss to ISU is nothing to be ashamed of but it was the way the Jayhawks went down that has us concerned. KU led by 14-points at the half after shooting 70 percent and out-rebounding the Cyclones 19-3 before sleep walking through the second half and losing 92-89 in overtime. As impressive as the Jayhawks home win streak was it, almost ended earlier this season in a huge rivalry game with Kansas State but with the score tied late, KU forward Sviatoisla Mykhailiuk took an inbound pass to the rack for a game winning layup. Although he travelled, it was not called and the Jayhawks won the game.
If you play ball in the state of Kansas and you're not a Jayhawk, you're always going to be second fiddle. K-State is unranked and has lost four straight games in this series including that aforementioned heart-breaker in Lawrence. Although they are coming off a 56-54 win at Baylor, the Wildcats may be undervalued after losing three straight prior to that. The Baylor win was K-State's first victory over a top-5 program in five years and their ?best? win since beating top ranked Kansas in 1994. ?Revenge? is usually an angle we like to avoid, as it's often nothing more than a talking point but this one has a much different tone. Nobody has to tell the Jayhawks how big games in Manhattan can be, but the fact that Kansas is entering this year?s trip down I-70 on the heels of a heartbreaking home loss over the weekend should only sharpen the Jayhawks? focus. However, that only matters so much, as plenty of Kansas teams have walked into Bramlage Coliseum focused only to come unraveled when the Wildcats get rolling on the home crowd and the famed ?Octagon of Doom? gets things rocking. K-State is more dangerous now than they have been in a long time and as long as they don?t get caught up the moment, they can win this one outright.
Buffalo +107 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils have picked up points in in seven of their last 10 games including a 5-1 win at Columbus last time out but we're not ready to crown New Jersey a playoff contender just yet. Despite their recent success, the Devils are giving up a ton of chances. Jersey has surrendered 30 or more shots in seven of their last 10 games. Much of the damage the Devils have done has been against Western Conference opponents, on the road. The Devils' road/home splits are as lopsided as they come. While New Jersey has won six straight games on the road they've dropped seven straight at ?The Rock?. New Jersey exploded for five goals against the Blue Jackets but it's not often they hang a crooked number on the board and chances are great they regress to here to scratching and clawing their way to try and score twice. Jersey ranks just 26th in goals scored and are 18th in goals against by giving up 2.83 goals per game.
The Sabres have been playing much better lately but the results just haven't been there. Although they've picked up points in five of their last seven games, Buffalo has won just one of their last four games but it's not from a lack of effort. The Sabres are firing a slew of pucks at the net with over 30 shots a game in each of their last 10. With that kind of volume, it?s only a matter of time before some of those pucks hit the back of the net. Buffalo has seven players with double digit goals this season and they are getting healthier on the back end after welcoming both Josh Gorges and Jake McCabe back into the lineup. After a 4-0 win over the Senators Saturday night, the Sabres have some much need momentum and confidence coming into this one. Although Buffalo sits dead last in the East, they are just seven points behind the Flyers for the final Wild Card with 31 games to play. A healthy Sabres? team with strong goaltending offers up all the value here against a team that has been on its heels at home all season long.
"As great as today feels... we're five weeks behind the other teams for the 2017 season."
-Bill Belichick
07:35 PM NBA [508] Toronto Raptors -6-110
08:05 PM NBA [513] TOTAL o204.5 -110 (Miami Heat vrs Minnesota Timberwolves)
10:35 PM NBA [522] TOTAL u204-110 (Chicago Bulls vrs Sacramento Kings)
08:00 PM CBB [524] Arkansas State -7.5 -105
09:00 PM CBB [533] Kansas -2.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [52] TOTAL u5.5 -115 (Saint Louis Blues vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
07:05 PM NHL [53] TOTAL o6+100 (Toronto Maple Leafs vrs New York Islanders)
07:05 PM NHL [56] New Jersey Devils -125
1 unit bet pays 332....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Dallas vs. Denver
Play: Denver -2?
Though the Mavericks have gotten healthier and are playing much better basketball, they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. Playing in the thin air of Denver is always tough on road foes but it is especially tough when the Nuggets are off of an ugly loss and will come out fired up to respond. After getting hammered by two dozen points at San Antonio Saturday, Denver will respond at home tonight. The Nuggets are 12-5 SU and ATS when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less and Denver also was on a 9-3 ATS run before the ugly loss to the Spurs. The home team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and the two games this season have both been decided by double digit margins. Only 1 of the last 6 meetings has been decided by less than 6 points. The number on tonight's game is certainly "small chalk" to lay when you consider the home dominance in this match-ups. We are getting a manageable number here because of the Mavs recent hot play but Dallas is still just 2-2 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games. The Mavericks are also 4-8 SU this season when off of an upset win as an underdog and they are 15-22 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game they won outright as a dog. The Nuggets will prove to be the hungrier team tonight and they've been the much stronger team on the boards in comparison with Dallas. Look for the home team to dominate the glass in this one.
In the Sights, Monday NBA?
The Wizards have been a discussion topic across the on-going threads several times over the past month, their run now at 17-0 SU and 15-2 ATS at home. They step on to that court again tonight in first place in the Southeast Division, and also just 4.5 games out of the top seed in the Eastern Conference, yet the markets continue to lag in making the proper adjustments. That will put #502 Washington (7:05 Eastern) into play, with a little bit of pick?em out there this morning, and this one good to -1.
To get the best feel for the current state of affairs with these teams let?s go to the post-Christmas cycle, a meaningful span of 21 games for the Wizards and 20 for the Cavaliers -
W/L ATS O/100 D/100 Net
WIZ 17-4 16-5 110.7 102.6 +8.1
CAVS 11-9 6-13-1 107.5 107.7 -.2
Washington has been the #3 team in the NBA across this stretch, trailing only the Warriors and Spurs, while Cleveland has naturally been right in the middle of the pack with those numbers. The Wizards have been significantly better both offensively and defensively, and there is a gap in team chemistry, Scott Brooks having his rotation playing tight and with a superb focus (the defense in shutting downing New Orleans 25-8 in the fourth quarter on Saturday a great sign), while Tyronn Lue is still trying to figure things out.
Here is an added flag on the Cavaliers ? their recent struggles have come through a soft schedule cycle. Six of their last seven games were against teams that are at least eight games under .500, and the OKC team that had the lone winning record was also gassed on that particular day. And Cleveland has only played two road games against winning teams over the last two full months, going 0-2 SU and ATS and falling to the spread by 35 points (you will see a third game that would seem to qualify at Memphis on December 14, but that was without James/Irving/Love so I don?t track it). LeBron can always step up and have a big game to wreck these plans, and his head-to-head vs. the emerging Otto Porter will be fascinating to watch, but for now this is not the proper price range for these teams.
Cavs vs. Wizards
Play: Under 220
Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
Cleveland at Washington
Play: Washington +1?
Washington comes in with a ton of momentum, it?s won seven straight and 17 consecutive in front of the home town crowd. Now it gets to avenge a 105-94 setback to Cleveland at home back on November 11th. The Cavs average 110 PPG, while the Wizards average 107. Cleveland allows 104.8, while Washington allows 104.7. Note that the Cavaliers are just 2-4 ATS as underdogs this season, while the Wizards are 18-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
Heat vs. Wolves
Play: Heat Pk
The Heat have came out of nowhere to go 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games and I'm willing to jump on this hot streak and back Miami at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are trending in the opposite direction. They have lost 3 straight and are a miserable 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. It's been a disappointing year for Minnesota and it got worse recently when they found out Zach LaVine is out for the season. I also think this is a good matchup for Miami, as they have the talent in Whiteside to counter Karl-Anthony Towns. Wolves are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home.
Miami / Minnesota Over 205
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage.
The Timberwolves can score. They've reached at 103 points in eight of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in each of Minnesota's past five games.
New Orleans Pelicans -5.5
The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory at home here Monday night against the Phoenix Suns. They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road. Two were against the hottest team in the NBA in the Wizards, while the other two were against the Pistons and Raptors.
But now the Pelicans get a break in their schedule as they face the lowly Phoenix Suns, who are just 16-35 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games coming in. Their only victory came against the Sacramento Kings by a final of 105-103. Their last four losses have all come by double-digits.
The Suns are a tired team right now as they will be playing their 4th game in 6 days. Meanwhile, this will only be the 2nd game in 5 days for the Pelicans, so they own a clear scheduling advantage in tonight's matchup.
The Suns are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five Monday games.
San Antonio vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis
The rodeo comes to San Antonio every year at this time and for the last 14 years, the Spurs have turned a negative into a positive. San Antonio began with an 8-1 trip back in 2003 and check in at 82-35 overall, experiencing just one losing trip in that span, two years ago when the team went 4-5 (Spurs bounced back to go 7-1 last season!). This year's trip will encompass 7,378 miles and three time zones.
The Spurs have been great on the road so far this season, kicking off their latest "Rockin' Rodeo Road Trip" (as coined in the team's game notes) with a 20-4 SU & 15-8-1 ATS record in road games, so far this season. However, this marks the first time the Spurs will be going on this trip without Tim Duncan. As for Parker and Ginobili, they are now more role players than stars, as Parker averages 11.1 PPG and 4.7 APG in about 25 MPG (37 games) and Ginobili 8.1-2.4-2.4 in just under 19 minutes in playing 43 games. SF Leonard (25.3 & 5.8 ) and PF Aldridge (17.5 & 7.2) are now the stars. Yes the Spurs still own great depth but they miss center Gasol (11.7 & 7.9), who won't be back until late February or early March.
The Grizzlies were able to cap a six-game road trip at 4-2 by rallying from an 18-point deficit for a 107-99 victory in Minnesota on Saturday. Memphis averaged 109.0 PPG on 47.9 percent shooting on their trip and are well-aware of the Spurs ability to win on the road (or anywhere for that matter), as the Grizzlies return home. In fact, San Antonio has won five straight meetings with Memphis and 16 of the last 20.
However, All-Star center Marc Gasol (21.0 & 6.0) and guard Tony Allen (9.4 PPG and the team's best perimeter defender) were held out of Saturday's game, so both will be fresh for this one. PF Randolph asked for more "PT" and he responded by averaging 16.1 & 9.5 in January. PG Conley didn't make the All Star squad but he's averaging a career-best 19.7 PPG. Never really totally comfortable going against the Spurs but I will take the home team in this one.
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Virginia -4
Both teams play outstanding basketball on the defensive end, but Virginia certainly didn't live up to its rep in the second half of their weekend loss at Syracuse. The Cavaliers led 34-22 at halftime, but Syracuse opened up the floor to start the second half and finished making 73.7% of their FGA over the final 20 minutes, including 67% of their 3-pointers. Tony Bennett will be looking for his troops to clamp down on the defensive end in this one and I suspect they will. The Cavaliers have presented Rick Pitino with scheme and matchup problems, beating Louisville in four of the last five meetings. The Cardinals are on a 3-game winning and covering streak, but the competition gets much tougher tonight. Louisville enters on a 1-6-1 ATS slide as a road dog, while UVA is on a 7-0, 100% ATS run as a home favorite of less than seven points.
Monmouth as they make the short drive to Rider and gain revenge on a Broncos team that dumped them 93-90 in overtime on New Year's Eve in West Long Branch in a game the Hawks were listed as the -13 1/2 point chalk.
Monmouth is seeking their 20th win of the season, and while they have won 9 straight, the Hawks are just 4-5 against the spread in those 9 victories.
Rider though, has been sliding as we head towards the end of the regular season, as the Broncs have dropped 6 of their last 8 games both straight up and against the spread.
The Broncos are also just 2-4 straight up the last 6 times they have faced Monmouth, failing 2 of the last 3 against the spread.
I say lay it with Monmouth as they hit the 20-win plateau with a ringing road win and cover.
4* MONMOUTH
Item: How much will fatigue matter in Manhattan
Passions tend to run high when the Jayhawks and Wildcats square off, and one might expect them to be even more fever-pitched this evening, a rematch from an intense 90-88 Kansas win in Lawrence in this season?s first go-round, when State players, coaches and fans believed that Svi Mykhiliuk traveled on that final possession.
He did, of course, which you can watch here -
But while the passions may indeed run high, what about the physical energy? Both teams come off of draining Saturday outings, Kansas seeing that 51-game win streak at Phog Allen Fieldhouse in a 92-89 overtime defeat vs. Iowa State, and Kansas State beating #2-ranked Baylor 56-54 on the road. Let?s stake a look at the minute counts for the starting fives, each putting in yeoman?s efforts ?
Total Starters
K State 200 179
Kansas 225 199
Four of the five Kansas starters went at least the full 40 that regulation usually entails.
Now consider this for a moment - were each of the teams already tired on Saturday? Kansas was off of a grueling cycle of playing at Kentucky the previous Saturday, and then beating Baylor in a close Wednesday game. State had played at Tennessee the previous Saturday, before being taken to OT in a home loss to TCU on Wednesday. How much did that matter Saturday? Kansas led by 14 at halftime vs. Iowa State and wore down late; State led Baylor by 15 at halftime and was just hanging on for dear life at the end.
The players are going to want to bring it tonight, the question is just how much they have to bring.
In basketball, does being tired bother teams more on the offensive side or defensive side of the game? Do tired bodies lag on defense or do tired arms stuggle with shooting or a combination of both? In general would you look to more scoring or less scoring in fatigue matchups? Thanks
No easy answer here - it tends to come down to style. Pressing defenses get bothered more by fatigue than those that favor half-court sets; teams that rely more on long jumpers show more signs than those that can score around the basket. But weighted against that is always what adrenaline can mean for young athletes. Tonight is a good example - Kansas and Kansas State will show fatigue, but likely less than if they weren't playing each other, which adds a layer of energy to the proceedings.
Here is the old classic from Marv Harshman, who was a Pac 12 head coach at Washington State and Washington for 28 years, on why he preferred to recruit size instead of speed - "Quick guys get tired, big guys don't shrink." That is a generalization, of course, but there are some degrees of science and logic to it.
Now an update on Kansas/Kansas State that does matter - Bill Self has re-instated 6-10 sophomore Carlton Bragg Jr. for tonight, after sitting out three games via suspension. Not only does that help a team that lacks depth, but Bragg has been a difference maker on the floor - although he only averages 15.0 minutes per game, he has produced 6.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg in those stints.
Holy Cross +10? over BUCKNELL
Holy Cross is the defending Patriot League champion that fought its way to the Men?s Basketball Tournament in the most candid of ways in the 2015-16 season by qualifying in what was nothing short of an ugly duckling turning into a Beautiful Swan story. The Crusaders? path to greatness began after they finished their regular season 10-19 with an abysmal defeat at Boston University. Holy Cross had to essentially play in to the Quarterfinals of the Patriot League tournament by virtue of taking down the #8 seed Loyola, Maryland (a team that defeated them twice by considerable margins in the 2015-16 regular season) before they would ignite and take down this Bucknell team in overtime who was the #1 seed in that format. The rest is history, as the Crusaders would complete the run and capture the Patriot League title, reinforcing the notion that truly anything can happen in college hoops and/or in a one and done scenario. However, it didn?t end there. Holy Cross had to leave Worcester, Massachusetts and take on Southern University in a play-in game to the Men?s Basketball Tournament in Dayton, Ohio. Once again, the Crusaders would prevail and earn a first round date with #1 seed Oregon before the Ducks would send them on their way. That?s a brief history lesson on the Crusaders that nobody really cares about. We don?t either, as this wager is all about value and thus, the fade on the favorite is on.
As for history lessons, well, the Bison have been a consistent player in vying for the Men?s Basketball Tournament on an annual basis and have even pulled off one of the all-time classic upsets when they took down Kansas in the First Round in the 2005 Dance. Bucknell?s overall dominance of the Patriot League so far this season has been impressive. The Bison steamrolled the Crusaders in the revenge match (from being knocked out last year) so they already have that out of the way and now this team seems to be on a mission to avenge what they should have had last season. Bucknell comes in at 10-1 in conference play and 18-6 overall, which is far more appealing to the 12-12 record of Holy Cross who sit sixth currently in the Patriot League standings. Despite the notoriety that Bucknell has gained as a projected #14 seed in the Big Dance according to many bracketologists, the Bison are just 1-0 ATS. That one ATS victory came as an outright victor against Vanderbilt in November 2016 as a 12-point pup. While we haven?t seen Bucknell for sale since then, it has nonetheless emerged on the national radar and you know our stance on that. Bucknell?s current prominence means that if you bet them here, you would be paying a premium to do so and we look to take inflated points and not spot them. That applies here.
Louisville vs. Virginia
Play: Louisville +6.5
The Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, including going 5-0-1 ATS in their last six ACC affairs, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road tilts and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20-plus points. Louisville is also a profitable 37-20-1 ATS as a conference underdog versus .800 or greater opponents, including 8-1 ATS when avenging a loss of five or more points.
Louisville takes the floor boasting an impressive 18-5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog off consecutive wins and has won its previous three games by a combined 98 points! The Cardinals are an extremely well-balanced squad, rating 8.0 points per game better than average offensively (78.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.5 points per game) and 13.9 points per game better than average defensively (62.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 76.2 points per game).
Over its last five games, Louisville is averaging an incredible 88.2 points on 52.1% shooting from the field and 43.2% from beyond the arc. Over that same period of time, the Cardinals are limiting opponents to just 37.5% shooting from the floor and 27.4% from three-point territory. Let's also note that the Cardinals are 7-3 SU and ATS in conference play wherein they are averaging 79.2 points per per game (47.8% FG%; 38.9% 3-PT%).
Virginia enters tonight's game with a pedestrian attack that is 0.8 points per game worse than average (68.9 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 69.7 points per game. The Cavaliers' offense isn't much better at home where they are averaging just 69.9 points per game. Even worse news for Virginia backers is the fact that head coach Tony Bennett's squad is trending in the wrong direction, averaging a pathetic 65.0 points over its last five contests.
The reason why I have backed off making Louisville a Best Bet is the fact that two players - forwards Mangok Mathiang and Deng Adel - are suspended for tonight's game. Adel is averaging 11.1 points in 28:23 minutes per game, while Mathiang is averaging 7.1 points in 19:39 minutes per game. These suspensions come on the heels of losing guard Quentin Snider, who remains out with a hip flexor strain. In 18 games this season, Snider was averaging 12.1 points and 4.0 assists per game.
KANSAS ST +3 over Kansas
As a perennial college hoops powerhouse, it?s no shock to see Kansas once again ranked in the top three but the Jayhawks are in the middle of a crucial part of their conference schedule. Kansas has wins over #15 Kentucky and number #4 Baylor in two of their last three games but had their 54-game home win streak ended by Iowa State on Saturday. A loss to ISU is nothing to be ashamed of but it was the way the Jayhawks went down that has us concerned. KU led by 14-points at the half after shooting 70 percent and out-rebounding the Cyclones 19-3 before sleep walking through the second half and losing 92-89 in overtime. As impressive as the Jayhawks home win streak was it, almost ended earlier this season in a huge rivalry game with Kansas State but with the score tied late, KU forward Sviatoisla Mykhailiuk took an inbound pass to the rack for a game winning layup. Although he travelled, it was not called and the Jayhawks won the game.
If you play ball in the state of Kansas and you're not a Jayhawk, you're always going to be second fiddle. K-State is unranked and has lost four straight games in this series including that aforementioned heart-breaker in Lawrence. Although they are coming off a 56-54 win at Baylor, the Wildcats may be undervalued after losing three straight prior to that. The Baylor win was K-State's first victory over a top-5 program in five years and their ?best? win since beating top ranked Kansas in 1994. ?Revenge? is usually an angle we like to avoid, as it's often nothing more than a talking point but this one has a much different tone. Nobody has to tell the Jayhawks how big games in Manhattan can be, but the fact that Kansas is entering this year?s trip down I-70 on the heels of a heartbreaking home loss over the weekend should only sharpen the Jayhawks? focus. However, that only matters so much, as plenty of Kansas teams have walked into Bramlage Coliseum focused only to come unraveled when the Wildcats get rolling on the home crowd and the famed ?Octagon of Doom? gets things rocking. K-State is more dangerous now than they have been in a long time and as long as they don?t get caught up the moment, they can win this one outright.
Buffalo +107 over NEW JERSEY
The Devils have picked up points in in seven of their last 10 games including a 5-1 win at Columbus last time out but we're not ready to crown New Jersey a playoff contender just yet. Despite their recent success, the Devils are giving up a ton of chances. Jersey has surrendered 30 or more shots in seven of their last 10 games. Much of the damage the Devils have done has been against Western Conference opponents, on the road. The Devils' road/home splits are as lopsided as they come. While New Jersey has won six straight games on the road they've dropped seven straight at ?The Rock?. New Jersey exploded for five goals against the Blue Jackets but it's not often they hang a crooked number on the board and chances are great they regress to here to scratching and clawing their way to try and score twice. Jersey ranks just 26th in goals scored and are 18th in goals against by giving up 2.83 goals per game.
The Sabres have been playing much better lately but the results just haven't been there. Although they've picked up points in five of their last seven games, Buffalo has won just one of their last four games but it's not from a lack of effort. The Sabres are firing a slew of pucks at the net with over 30 shots a game in each of their last 10. With that kind of volume, it?s only a matter of time before some of those pucks hit the back of the net. Buffalo has seven players with double digit goals this season and they are getting healthier on the back end after welcoming both Josh Gorges and Jake McCabe back into the lineup. After a 4-0 win over the Senators Saturday night, the Sabres have some much need momentum and confidence coming into this one. Although Buffalo sits dead last in the East, they are just seven points behind the Flyers for the final Wild Card with 31 games to play. A healthy Sabres? team with strong goaltending offers up all the value here against a team that has been on its heels at home all season long.
"As great as today feels... we're five weeks behind the other teams for the 2017 season."
-Bill Belichick
