Mondays picks and short writeups

[CrazyHorse]

Last post was friday for an ugly 1-4 day which brings the total to 16-9-1 (+8 units) Today's plays:

MIN/CWS under 9.5. (-110)
Looks like there are a good amount of people in here on this one. These 2 pitched against each other last week in Minnesota and it went under and think it should again. K Wells' #'s are still very good and his 8 starts have produced 7 unders. The under is also 14-5 L19 in Chicago. I don't know much about Lohse but he looked very solid last week against the Sox so think this has a good chance of going under. Playing for one unit.

SF/LA over 8.5 (-105)
Estes #'s are very good but they are not as good on the road where his L5 road starts he is 1-5 (4.94ERA). In his 3 starts vs LA this yr they are hitting .382 vs him and LA's batting avg vs lefties is better than righties especially in the L10. The over is 4-0-1 in Adams' 5 starts this year and he only has one start vs SF this year, a 7-3 win where he allowed 7H in 7IP and 3K to 6BB. I also think this might be the night Bonds' hits a HR, since he is due and almost hit one yesterday. Looking at SF's record in games he does crank one that may not be a good thing for the over. He did hit one HR this year vs Adams where he pithed as a reliever. Playing this one for 1.5 units.

Might have one or two more later. Any thoughts, comments etc on the following leans would be appreciated:

Seattle -130
Anaheim +160 (more probable that this will be the last play but looking into both further)

GL to all..

 

[NJO]

Thanks for the write-ups and insight. I will certainly be joining the White Sox/Twins under bandwagon.

As for Seattle, Davis's recent form for Texas (2.21 ERA last 20 innings) is enough to scare me away, but if I was forced to pick a side here, Seattle would be my play.

I'm going to go under the inflated total here, based on recent form of both pitchers and seemingly average performances of both team's bats lately.

As for Anaheim, Hudson's 2.63 ERA at home (versus Washburn's 4.33 road ERA) and Anaheim's 16-24 road record are enough to scare me away, but overall pitching numbers and recent form do indicate this game probably shouldn't have Oakland as heavily favored as they are.

 

[CrazyHorse]

NJO,

Thanks for the reply. Davis' recent form is the main reason I will probably stay away from that one. Hate to pass up SEA at a low price(even if it is on the road) but I lost yesterday going against Texas at home so I will stay away. I also agree with you on ANA/OAK. I just really like the way Wahburns's #'s have been consistently better with every start. Not to mention that Hudson has been the victim of poor run support a few times this year(how can so many pitchers with a low ERA have so many losses Maddux, Wakefield, CH Park, Burkett, Hudson, Burnett, etc). I often wonder how much of it is the team thinking they have a great starter so they don't need to score as much or is it the starter on the other team knowing he has to pitch a helluva game to give his team a chance. A little of both I guess. At any rate one last play:

Anaheim +165 over Oakland

Playing for .5 unit. Good luck to all

BTW I was born in Milwaukee, WI. Just haven't been there in about 5 years.

GL to all..