OC Dooley is below with his writeup for football.
NFL Football
3 Units on Green Bay Packers -5 -110
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ?SIDE?: Of course all the talk surrounding tonight?s game is the stunning death yesterday of Bret Favre?s father, who coached his son back in his high school days. However, Bret Favre once again is showing just how TOUGH he is by proclaiming that he WILL play this evening, which must be a huge inspiration to his teammates. Favre has started an NFL record 188 consecutive games dating back to 1992. Including the playoffs, he has started in 204 consecutive contests. Of course, Favre has been playing all season with a broken thumb. In recent weeks, Favre has started to look like his old self. His thumb still gives him problems when he makes some throws, but he had learned what he can and cannot do with it. One of the KEYS to this evening?s selection is that Green Bay has actually been limited to FEWER than 100 yards rushing in 3 consecutive games. That is not good news as the pillar of the offense has been Ahman Green, who has set a Packer single season record with 1,538 yards gained on the ground. HOWEVER, the odds are that the Pack will get back to their solid rushing attack this evening, as Oakland?s defense has surrendered a 100-yard rusher 3 consecutive weeks. The Raiders have gone in one year from the Super Bowl to right near dead-last in the AFC West. Even though they pulled off an underdog outright win at home against Baltimore last week, the bottom line is that Oakland is still struggling from ?internal? problems that most likely will cost head coach Bill Callahan his job. From what I have been able to ascertain, the Raiders are NOT playing to save Callahan?s job. In what was a stunning comment made my Callahan recently, he admitted that he had NOT had contact with veteran defenseman Charles Woodson in an entire MONTH. Obviously, Callahan has ?lost his team? with a severe lack of communication. Actually, his Raiders have cut down on some of the mistakes in recent weeks after Callahan ripped his team for being the ?dumbest? in the league in a recent press conference. But that does not take away from the fact that his communications and motivational skills are highly questionable. Of course, the ?aging? Raiders have been battling major injuries all season long and the situation is not getting any better, especially on the offensive line. Troubled Center Barrett Robbins will miss his third straight game with knee problems. Starting Guard Mo Collins has just become the ELEVENTH Oakland player to be lost for the rest of the season. Another team that has been ravaged by injury similar to the Raiders are the New York Giants, who once again failed to cover yesterday. Jim Fassell has already been given his walking papers, and I feel that the Oakland Raiders are in a very similar situation, as Callahan is a lame duck coach. There should be no problems with Green Bay intensity tonight, as they know you cannot take a losing team lightly on national TV. Remember what happened to them on Thanksgiving, when they went belly up in Detroit. Checking the database, Green Bay is 8-0 ATS after consecutive game with a turnover margin of PLUS TWO or better (5-1 ATS in road finales the past 6 seasons). Of course, Oakland has covered only 3 times all season.
4 Units on Oakland Raiders U 43 -110
2003 MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL/YEAR: I am going to start out this segment with a couple of salvos from my database, including the fact that the RAIDERS ARE 14-3 UNDER AS A HOME UNDERDOG. Here is a 73-PERCENT System that is 34-12 UNDER dating all the way back to 1983: you play any home team UNDER a total of 42?-to-49 in a NON-Conference situation, off an upset win as an underdog! Of course, the Raiders upset the Ravens at home last week, as Baltimore allowed Rick Mirer to hang around and get comfortable (186 yards passing). Tonight, I expect the Packers defense to employ all out BLITZES in order to rattle Mirer, who is a third string quarterback. One of the many problems with the Raiders this season as been their severe lack of speed at wide receiver, as opposing defenses were NOT forced to drop extra people back in coverage, as Oakland simply could not spread the field. The only speedy wideout is Jerry Porter who has spent most of the season injured. The reason why the Raiders have looked better in recent weeks has been due to their defense, especially at the corners where the tandem of Charles Woodson and Phillip Buchanon have been playing exceptionally well. Oakland has NOT allowed more than one touchdown pass in each of the last FIVE games! Oakland?s biggest problem has been defending the run where they have allowed 100+ yard rusher the past 3 weeks. However, that sets up another excellent angle from my database, as Oakland is a staggering 10-1 UNDER at home against good rushing teams that average at least 130 yards per game on the ground. Even though Bret Favre has been looking better in recent weeks, he is still playing with a broken thumb. It is going to be tough to read his mental outlook this evening, following the stunning death of his father yesterday. Favre is going to gut it out and play tonight, but the Packers know that the heart-and-soul of their offense all season has been their RUNNING game led by Ahman Green, who is having a career season. Green (1,538 yards), Najeh Davenport and Tony Fisher have helped out the Packers in position to make the playoffs. By the way, Green Bay has had many a drive thwarted by the ?risk taker?, as Favre has been picked off 20 times already. The bottom line here is that the Oakland Raiders made it to the Super Bowl jut one year ago due to an offense that was ranked #1 in the entire league. Now, they have been reduced to fighting San Diego for LAST place in the AFC West due to a severe lack of overall point production. Yes, the Raiders got ?old? in a hurry, as they simply lack team speed.
NCAA Football
5 Units on Kansas +12 -110
TONIGHT?S REDZONE BEST BET ?SIDE? (Tangerine Bowl): This happens to be the third consecutive side that I have really liked. Last week, I sided with a Memphis team making their first Bowl appearance in 32 years, along with an underrated Miami/Ohio squad that had not been to a postseason game since 1995. Normally, favorites do not cover in the ?early? Bowl games due to lack of interest, however, that trend did not hold up in week #1 of the Bowls because we had a pair of favored squads that actually WERE excited to participate in a minor bowl. That is NOT the case for North Carolina State, who was a preseason favorite to win the ACC Conference and advance to play in a lucrative BCS Bowl game. Last season the Wolfpack played on New Years Day against Notre Dame and ended up selling over 29,000 tickets. This year, NC State may have to reimburse the Tangerine Bowl due to lack of interest, as the locals have grabbed only 3,000 tickets out of the mandatory 12,500 allotment. Ticket sales are lagging badly due to the fact that his is an ?early? Bowl game on a bad date as most Wolpack fans have said they did NOT want to travel before the holiday. These are NOT happy times for the Wolfpack.. Phillip Rivers did not get a Heisman invitation even though he had better stats that THREE quarterbacks who were picked ahead of him. The reason why Rivers did not get a Heisman invite is that he lost pair of TV games against Ohio State and Florida State. Star tailback T.A. McLendon?s drunk driving charge finally became public after being kept ?under wraps? for nearly two months. McLendon was oft-injured and also was very ?fumble prone?. Last time out, NC State had a grand total of ONLY 326 yards in a loss to Maryland, which was their worst offensive effort in recent memory. NC State had better find a way to score some points today because the defense has had a great deal of difficulty in the FOURTH QUARTER this season. In fact, the poor defense in the final quarter is primarily the reason why the Wolfpack are playing in a ?minor? bowl on the 22nd of December. Basically, the NC State defense fell apart in the latter stages of games due to a lack of DEPTH, as too many YOUNG players were forced to play a lot of snaps. Regular clients know that I have personally cashed the ticket many times early in the season with the Kansas Jayhawks who just one year ago, won only TWO games. Other than Michigan State and Rutgers, it was the Jayhawks who showed the biggest one-season turnaround. The amazing thing about this Bowl bid which Kansas is THRILLED to have, I that head coach Mark Mangino is only in his second year at the helm. In the early bowl games, we generally see favored teams that played a tougher schedule than the underdog. Yes, NC State had a stronger schedule than Kansas, however, the Jayhawks play in one of the nation?s toughest conference (Big 12) so this particular underdog is NOT a pushover. With a victory tonight, Kansas can actually finish with a winning record, as they check in with a .500 mark. They lost 4 games while star quarterback Bill Whittemore was out with a fractured collarbone. I have found out from one of my contacts that Whittemore is eager to share the stage tonight with someone (Phillip Rivers) who has had a gained more notoriety. Even though he missed 4 games, Whittemore threw a school-record 16 touchdowns (2,142 yards in only 9 games). Whittemore is also a threat to RUN as he happens to have quick feet. Kansas, who averaged 30 points per game, is looking at tonight?s game as a launching point for next season. All you have to do is look at tonight?s posted total of 62? to know that both teams will score a ton of points. My database tells me that KANSAS IS 6-0 ATS ON THE ROAD when both teams score at least 28 points. Since 1992, NC State is 0-6 ATS on the road off a close loss of 6-or-LESS points.
ASS // PASS // 200* PHILLY-UND // 300* NEW MEXICO 
