MR. LOCK'S Baseball 101 for 2014

MR. LOCK

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Dec 6, 2002
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This is just my opinion so take it for what its worth.

Rule number don't bet the chalk

Rule number 2 see rule number 1

You will get buried very fast betting the chalk. If you bet the Chalk two days in a row you have to go 2-2 or you are already down scratch. If you play the dog go 2-2 you are up big and even if you go 1-2 you are still in the plus side. Yesterday, I took SD for 1 unit sold a run and a half plus +235. If I bet two dogs for 1 unit each guess what, I'm still in the black.

My advise is when you look at the the lines each day look to beat the chalk at the best value. There's a couple nice dogs each day, it's up to us to find the value. If you can't beat the chalk do the following:
Don't bet the game, Bet the run line as long as you are getting odds or use a parlay but don't bet the chalk by itself.

Lets put the odds into percentages shall we?

-110= 10%
-120=20%
-130=30%
-140=40%
-150-50%
-160=60%
-170=70%
-180=80%
-190=90%
-200=100%

When you convert the odds into percentages, you can see that playing the chalk is a losing bet.

I've seen people say , the Tigers are only -130 but -130 = 30%. Any bank in the world you loan you $100 for a 30% return on $130.

This is my advise and observations. Take it or leave it . :0corn

Anyway good luck to all :0008
 

MR. LOCK

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Dec 6, 2002
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More very interesting numbers . This is YTD vs spread 2013

Team record money


Kansas City 86-76 +616
Detroit 98-75 -1098

Chi Cubs 66-96 -1299
Pittsburgh 97-71 +2284

Washington 86-76 -945
NY Mets 74-88 +292

Philadelphia 73-89 -1681
Texas 91-72 -45


Atlanta 97-69 +416
Milwaukee 74-88 -455


Boston 108-70 +1657
Baltimore 85-77 +303

St. Louis 106-73 1060
Cincinnati 90-73 -484

Minnesota 66-96 -791
Chi White Sox 63-99 -2995

Toronto 74-88 -812
Tampa Bay 94-74 -185

Colorado 74-88 -1166
Miami 62-100 -1346

Even though the Tigers went 98-75 you still lost money -1098 due to the fact that Justine Chalklander lost games as a 260-300 fav. :scared

The Mets went 74-88 but were +292 because they were dogs in a lot of games.
 
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