Clemson Offense vs. Kentucky Defense
Clemson's offense was clicking on all cylinders back in October, when it torched a very respectable Georgia Tech defense for 31 points. Since then, however, the unit has failed to reach the 30-point plateau in four consecutive outings. For starters, the Tigers have missed senior lineman Roman Fry even more than expected, which has resulted in communication breakdowns in both the running game and in pass protection. Secondly, James Davis has been bothered by a shoulder injury he suffered in that win over the Yellow Jackets. And finally, QB Will Proctor has been exposed for his marginal passing skills when opposing defenses force him to make plays. The good news for Clemson is that it has an opportunity to finish the season strong versus a Kentucky team that ranks 111th nationally in rushing defense and 101st in scoring defense. Per usual, expect Tigers' offensive coordinator Rob Spence to place a heavy emphasis on the ground game. Davis should be back to form following a few weeks of rest and true freshman C.J. Spiller has surprisingly gotten stronger as the season has progressed.
Clemson-Kentucky
When: Dec. 29, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Nashville, Tenn
Kentucky's lack of size up front should prove to be a problem. DT Myron Pryor is stout at 300 pounds but fellow DT Lamar Mills is undersized at 285 pounds and the interior, as a whole, lacks ideal depth. Clemson's offensive line, which averages 320 pounds per member, should be able to dominate the trenches, which will force MLB Braxton Kelley and WLB Wesley Woodyard to fight through traffic much of the afternoon. As a result, expect DSs Roger Williams and Marcus McClinton to be involved in run support closer to the line of scrimmage than usual.
The key for Kentucky will be to get pressure on Proctor when the Tigers do throw the football. Proctor completes 60.4 percent of his pass attempts but he has thrown 10 interceptions compared to only 13 touchdown passes on the season. WR Chansi Stuckey is a consistent weapon at one wide receiver position, but the Tigers lack a reliable second target. As such, look for Kentucky to play a lot of man-free coverage with CB's Trevard Lindley and Karl Booker locked up one-on-one versus Stuckey and No. 2 WR Aaron Kelly with FS McClinton cheating over to provide deep support over the top of Stuckey. That will allow SS Williams to cheat up as a fourth linebacker versus the run, which in turn will afford defensive coordinator Mike Archer the freedom to use his linebackers more liberally on the blitz. In the end, Kentucky can give up lots of yards and still win this game, but only if it forces a few turnovers in the meantime.
Kentucky Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Kentucky's offense, which averages 26.6 points per game, is one of the most improved units in college football this season. The biggest difference has been the turnaround made by junior QB Andre' Woodson. In 2005, Woodson threw as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes. This season, however, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound gunslinger has thrown for 28 touchdowns compared to just seven picks. Woodson is a big, strong-armed quarterback whose field vision, accuracy and overall confidence have improved tremendously. He is getting far better protection from his experienced offensive line, which allows Woodson the time to go through his progression reads and take advantage of all his weapons. Woodson's primary target is junior WR Keenan Burton, who has notched 72 catches for 1,006 yards with 12 touchdowns. Also contributing in the passing game are No. 2 WR Dicky Lyons Jr., who has 48 catches on the season, RB Rafael Little, who has notched 29 receptions in only eight games played, and TE Jacob Tamme, who is an emerging talent with 28 receptions as a junior. The Wildcats like to operate out of a one-back set with Little in the backfield. That allows them to spread the field with three receivers (Burton, Lyons and David Jones), while also using Tamme in motion, out of the slot or from a traditional in-line tight end alignment. Clemson's best chance to slow down Woodson and the passing attack is to generate consistent front-four pressure. DE Gaines Adams has notched 10? sacks on the season and he will require double-team help against OTs Garry Williams (LOT) and Michael Aitcheson (ROT). The problem is that Clemson's defense has worn down significantly in recent games. The unit overcame key losses to injured LBs Tremaine Billie and Anthony Watters early on but its lack of depth really showed during the final four games of the regular season. Furthermore, CBs Duane Coleman and C.J. Gaddis have good size and experience but both have a tendency to make mental mistakes, which could lead to some big plays for perimeter receivers such as Burton and Lyons if Woodson has time in the pocket to throw. Finally, while the Wildcats use a pass-first philosophy on offense, Little is a weapon that must be accounted for on the ground. He has returned from injury and he should be at 100 percent following the layoff leading up to the bowl game. If Clemson gets caught in too many dime-personnel packages and if its defensive linemen aren't disciplined enough in their gaps, Little could rip off some huge chunks of yardage in this contest.
Special Teams
Both teams are solid on special teams but Clemson gets a slight edge thanks to its kickers. PK Jad Dean is a reliable senior who has connected on 15 of 20 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 45 yards. PT Cole Chason is averaging 412.1 yards per punt and has landed 11 of his 47 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Jacoby Ford is one of the nation's most explosive return specialists, averaging 33.1 yards per kickoff return with a 94-yard touchdown and 11.8 yards per punt return with a 92-yard touchdown.
The Wildcats are even more dangerous in the return game thanks to Little, who averages 23.5 yards per punt return with an 84-yard score, and Burton, who averages 24.9 yards per kickoff return, including a 100-yard score. However, PK Lones Seiber has struggled through his freshman season, connected on just 11 of 18 attempts, including two blocks. PT Tim Masthay has been just decent with an average of 39.6 yards per attempt, including two more blocks.
Matchups
? Kentucky WR Keenan Burton vs. Clemson CB C.J. Gaddis
? Kentucky LOT Garry Williams vs. Clemson DE Gaines Adams
? Clemson WR Chansi Stuckey vs. Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley
Scouts' Edge
Bowl games are decided by the team that wants to be there more often than they are by the team with more talent. Kentucky is going bowling for the first time in seven years. Clemson, on the other hand, lost three of its final four games and is disappointed it's not playing in a January bowl game. That's why we like Kentucky to pull off the upset against a superiorly gifted Clemson squad.
Prediction: Wildcats 30, Tigers 27
Clemson's offense was clicking on all cylinders back in October, when it torched a very respectable Georgia Tech defense for 31 points. Since then, however, the unit has failed to reach the 30-point plateau in four consecutive outings. For starters, the Tigers have missed senior lineman Roman Fry even more than expected, which has resulted in communication breakdowns in both the running game and in pass protection. Secondly, James Davis has been bothered by a shoulder injury he suffered in that win over the Yellow Jackets. And finally, QB Will Proctor has been exposed for his marginal passing skills when opposing defenses force him to make plays. The good news for Clemson is that it has an opportunity to finish the season strong versus a Kentucky team that ranks 111th nationally in rushing defense and 101st in scoring defense. Per usual, expect Tigers' offensive coordinator Rob Spence to place a heavy emphasis on the ground game. Davis should be back to form following a few weeks of rest and true freshman C.J. Spiller has surprisingly gotten stronger as the season has progressed.
Clemson-Kentucky
When: Dec. 29, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Nashville, Tenn
Kentucky's lack of size up front should prove to be a problem. DT Myron Pryor is stout at 300 pounds but fellow DT Lamar Mills is undersized at 285 pounds and the interior, as a whole, lacks ideal depth. Clemson's offensive line, which averages 320 pounds per member, should be able to dominate the trenches, which will force MLB Braxton Kelley and WLB Wesley Woodyard to fight through traffic much of the afternoon. As a result, expect DSs Roger Williams and Marcus McClinton to be involved in run support closer to the line of scrimmage than usual.
The key for Kentucky will be to get pressure on Proctor when the Tigers do throw the football. Proctor completes 60.4 percent of his pass attempts but he has thrown 10 interceptions compared to only 13 touchdown passes on the season. WR Chansi Stuckey is a consistent weapon at one wide receiver position, but the Tigers lack a reliable second target. As such, look for Kentucky to play a lot of man-free coverage with CB's Trevard Lindley and Karl Booker locked up one-on-one versus Stuckey and No. 2 WR Aaron Kelly with FS McClinton cheating over to provide deep support over the top of Stuckey. That will allow SS Williams to cheat up as a fourth linebacker versus the run, which in turn will afford defensive coordinator Mike Archer the freedom to use his linebackers more liberally on the blitz. In the end, Kentucky can give up lots of yards and still win this game, but only if it forces a few turnovers in the meantime.
Kentucky Offense vs. Clemson Defense
Kentucky's offense, which averages 26.6 points per game, is one of the most improved units in college football this season. The biggest difference has been the turnaround made by junior QB Andre' Woodson. In 2005, Woodson threw as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes. This season, however, the 6-foot-5, 240-pound gunslinger has thrown for 28 touchdowns compared to just seven picks. Woodson is a big, strong-armed quarterback whose field vision, accuracy and overall confidence have improved tremendously. He is getting far better protection from his experienced offensive line, which allows Woodson the time to go through his progression reads and take advantage of all his weapons. Woodson's primary target is junior WR Keenan Burton, who has notched 72 catches for 1,006 yards with 12 touchdowns. Also contributing in the passing game are No. 2 WR Dicky Lyons Jr., who has 48 catches on the season, RB Rafael Little, who has notched 29 receptions in only eight games played, and TE Jacob Tamme, who is an emerging talent with 28 receptions as a junior. The Wildcats like to operate out of a one-back set with Little in the backfield. That allows them to spread the field with three receivers (Burton, Lyons and David Jones), while also using Tamme in motion, out of the slot or from a traditional in-line tight end alignment. Clemson's best chance to slow down Woodson and the passing attack is to generate consistent front-four pressure. DE Gaines Adams has notched 10? sacks on the season and he will require double-team help against OTs Garry Williams (LOT) and Michael Aitcheson (ROT). The problem is that Clemson's defense has worn down significantly in recent games. The unit overcame key losses to injured LBs Tremaine Billie and Anthony Watters early on but its lack of depth really showed during the final four games of the regular season. Furthermore, CBs Duane Coleman and C.J. Gaddis have good size and experience but both have a tendency to make mental mistakes, which could lead to some big plays for perimeter receivers such as Burton and Lyons if Woodson has time in the pocket to throw. Finally, while the Wildcats use a pass-first philosophy on offense, Little is a weapon that must be accounted for on the ground. He has returned from injury and he should be at 100 percent following the layoff leading up to the bowl game. If Clemson gets caught in too many dime-personnel packages and if its defensive linemen aren't disciplined enough in their gaps, Little could rip off some huge chunks of yardage in this contest.
Special Teams
Both teams are solid on special teams but Clemson gets a slight edge thanks to its kickers. PK Jad Dean is a reliable senior who has connected on 15 of 20 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 45 yards. PT Cole Chason is averaging 412.1 yards per punt and has landed 11 of his 47 attempts inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Jacoby Ford is one of the nation's most explosive return specialists, averaging 33.1 yards per kickoff return with a 94-yard touchdown and 11.8 yards per punt return with a 92-yard touchdown.
The Wildcats are even more dangerous in the return game thanks to Little, who averages 23.5 yards per punt return with an 84-yard score, and Burton, who averages 24.9 yards per kickoff return, including a 100-yard score. However, PK Lones Seiber has struggled through his freshman season, connected on just 11 of 18 attempts, including two blocks. PT Tim Masthay has been just decent with an average of 39.6 yards per attempt, including two more blocks.
Matchups
? Kentucky WR Keenan Burton vs. Clemson CB C.J. Gaddis
? Kentucky LOT Garry Williams vs. Clemson DE Gaines Adams
? Clemson WR Chansi Stuckey vs. Kentucky CB Trevard Lindley
Scouts' Edge
Bowl games are decided by the team that wants to be there more often than they are by the team with more talent. Kentucky is going bowling for the first time in seven years. Clemson, on the other hand, lost three of its final four games and is disappointed it's not playing in a January bowl game. That's why we like Kentucky to pull off the upset against a superiorly gifted Clemson squad.
Prediction: Wildcats 30, Tigers 27
