Jack, don't know if this is the proper forum, but this article is SOOO good, I'm just posting it here and now.
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FOLLOW UP YOUR BET 02/24/04 - Wild Bill
Everything changes when money is involved, or so it would seem. Having a few dollars involved on any particular game seems to encourage two bad habits among bettors.
First, their ?involvement? in the game makes them overlook the obvious fact that we all must continue to learn to get better. But since the bettor watched the game, he often doesn?t even follow through on this simple step.
The second pitfall is to watch the game through rose-colored glasses. This habit usually keeps them from seeing what is obvious to the non-invested spectator.
Few gamblers go back and look at their losses and try to learn something. Even fewer glean ideas from their wins. It?s about ego much of the time, but I also think money has something to do with it.
Most ?squares,? and even somewhat informed bettors, are too worried with day-to-day results. When things go right, bettors have a tendency to assume they were flawless in their analysis. However, probably close to 30 to 40 percent of the games played each night have some little, unpredictable deciding factor.
In addition, it is impossible for everyone - even the best bettors in the business - to properly evaluate every angle and perfectly match up in a game.
If a team is favored by five and pulls out a four-point win, the divergence in the behavior of the guy who cashes a ticket on the winner and the guy who tears up his ticket illustrates this point rather clearly.
How you react and what analysis you do after you win or lose that game with the non-covering favorite says a lot about your ability to win long-term at sports betting.
Many ?square? bettors that took the underdog will say something like ?I told you that was too many points, how could it not be obvious the favorite isn?t that good a team??
I hear things like this all the time and I just shake my head. One more made basket and that ?obvious fact? wouldn?t have been so obvious.
The person who won the bet should see if they truly valued the involved teams that well, since a little break here or there and could easily have changed the result. He might have done a good analysis, but without reviewing the game he won?t know for sure.
They guy who loses the bet often will blame anyone and everyone he can. A close loss often means the officials blew a couple of obvious calls. At least, that seems to be a common response.
If the refs really were the reason behind the loss, maybe these ?square? bettors should to add a ?referee factor? to their handicapping. This is nonsense of course, but what else could you conclude from their line of thinking?
The bottom line is; both of the above bettors will often not do any follow-up research. Maybe the opponent was playing a lot better defensively than recent stats show, so they got the cover. Or maybe the opponent didn?t play better defense, but the team that got your backing just didn?t hit open jumpers all night.
If your watching was limited to rooting for a team because of money or fan interest, you probably won?t see it very clearly. Money changes everything.
One thing that separates many professional-level bettors from even talented amateurs is that the professionals will log a lot of time into the mundane follow up. Reviewing what happened in every game is a time consuming process and taking good useful notes adds even more work.
But in the end, those notes and learning experiences are what separates an informed opinion and a good guess. Whether you have money on the game or not, a simple log that requires you to make at least three observations from reviewing the stats might be the most insightful tool to add to your arsenal.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FOLLOW UP YOUR BET 02/24/04 - Wild Bill
Everything changes when money is involved, or so it would seem. Having a few dollars involved on any particular game seems to encourage two bad habits among bettors.
First, their ?involvement? in the game makes them overlook the obvious fact that we all must continue to learn to get better. But since the bettor watched the game, he often doesn?t even follow through on this simple step.
The second pitfall is to watch the game through rose-colored glasses. This habit usually keeps them from seeing what is obvious to the non-invested spectator.
Few gamblers go back and look at their losses and try to learn something. Even fewer glean ideas from their wins. It?s about ego much of the time, but I also think money has something to do with it.
Most ?squares,? and even somewhat informed bettors, are too worried with day-to-day results. When things go right, bettors have a tendency to assume they were flawless in their analysis. However, probably close to 30 to 40 percent of the games played each night have some little, unpredictable deciding factor.
In addition, it is impossible for everyone - even the best bettors in the business - to properly evaluate every angle and perfectly match up in a game.
If a team is favored by five and pulls out a four-point win, the divergence in the behavior of the guy who cashes a ticket on the winner and the guy who tears up his ticket illustrates this point rather clearly.
How you react and what analysis you do after you win or lose that game with the non-covering favorite says a lot about your ability to win long-term at sports betting.
Many ?square? bettors that took the underdog will say something like ?I told you that was too many points, how could it not be obvious the favorite isn?t that good a team??
I hear things like this all the time and I just shake my head. One more made basket and that ?obvious fact? wouldn?t have been so obvious.
The person who won the bet should see if they truly valued the involved teams that well, since a little break here or there and could easily have changed the result. He might have done a good analysis, but without reviewing the game he won?t know for sure.
They guy who loses the bet often will blame anyone and everyone he can. A close loss often means the officials blew a couple of obvious calls. At least, that seems to be a common response.
If the refs really were the reason behind the loss, maybe these ?square? bettors should to add a ?referee factor? to their handicapping. This is nonsense of course, but what else could you conclude from their line of thinking?
The bottom line is; both of the above bettors will often not do any follow-up research. Maybe the opponent was playing a lot better defensively than recent stats show, so they got the cover. Or maybe the opponent didn?t play better defense, but the team that got your backing just didn?t hit open jumpers all night.
If your watching was limited to rooting for a team because of money or fan interest, you probably won?t see it very clearly. Money changes everything.
One thing that separates many professional-level bettors from even talented amateurs is that the professionals will log a lot of time into the mundane follow up. Reviewing what happened in every game is a time consuming process and taking good useful notes adds even more work.
But in the end, those notes and learning experiences are what separates an informed opinion and a good guess. Whether you have money on the game or not, a simple log that requires you to make at least three observations from reviewing the stats might be the most insightful tool to add to your arsenal.
